Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

[joelsyt]

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Imagine if this was the grand final...

My nails would be absolutely ruined!

Also Swan Street would be a nightmare for the cops. Collingwood supporters drinking away their pain and Richmond supporters celebrating and then you’d get spotfires all over Richmond between Richmond and Collingwood supporters.

It’d literally be batten down the hatches for Richmond residents.

 

[HTT]

My nails would be absolutely ruined!

Also Swan Street would be a nightmare for the cops. Collingwood supporters drinking away their pain and Richmond supporters celebrating and then you’d get spotfires all over Richmond between Richmond and Collingwood supporters.

It’d literally be batten down the hatches for Richmond residents.

Would get ugly that’s for sure. Especially if it was close and a dodgy free/no free decided it.

 

[joelsyt]

I drove into Richmond to go to a mates who lives off Swan for GF day. Purposely parked the car a few streets further back knowing there would be chaos from Tugger supporters win or lose. When I saw news footage of people jumping on parked cars i was justified in my choice.

As a Collingwood supporter surely you’d agree it’d be twice as worse with a Richmond v Collingwood Grand Final?

 

[JJ14AU]

As a Collingwood supporter surely you’d agree it’d be twice as worse with a Richmond v Collingwood Grand Final?

I wouldn’t even drive if both teams were in the GF. Nothing would be safe in a 2km radius.

 

[kranky al]

Nekulturniy swine

 

[darcytiger]

The squiggle is a beautiful thing this week. Nearly every other team shrinking back like a turtle in their shell and the Tiges pushing forward

 

[Hobbes]

Richmond +12 v Sydney (the rarely-seen animal - the correct retrospective tip)
Western Bulldogs v Geelong +38
Carlton v Port Adelaide +32
Adelaide v West Coast +8
Gold Coast v Collingwood +48
GWS v Hawthorn +1 (really, it's tipping a 0.02 advantage to Hawthorn)
Melbourne +33 v St Kilda
Essendon v North Melbourne +1 (another almost-a-draw tip)
Fremantle +22 v Brisbane

3/9 is a bit sad. In my defence, nobody was tipping the Bulldogs, St Kilda or Brisbane anyway. I'm annoyed that both 50/50 tips fell the wrong way.

1. Richmond 23.0
2. Collingwood 13.7 (+2)
3. Essendon 11.82 (+6)
4. Sydney 11.75 (-1)
5. Port Adelaide 11.6 (+1)
6. Geelong 10.0 (-4)
7. Melbourne 8.9 (-2)
8. West Coast 7.0 (-1)
9. North Melbourne 5.5 (-1)
10. Hawthorn 5.3
11. GWS 5.1
12. Brisbane -4.0 (+2)
13. Adelaide -10.2
14. St Kilda -13.4 (+1)
15. Western Bulldogs -15.4 (+1)
16. Fremantle -17.0 (-4)
17. Carlton -25.7
18. Gold Coast -37.5

Essendon flies up the bunch, while Geelong and Fremantle plummet.

Sydney +7 v Geelong
Richmond +39 v Adelaide
Brisbane +28 v Carlton
Port Adelaide +31 v St Kilda
Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn +21
Melbourne +35 v Fremantle
North Melbourne +49 v Gold Coast
Essendon v Collingwood +2
West Coast +14 v GWS

And the predictive ladder

1. Richmond 17.1
2. Port Adelaide 15.2 (+1)
3. Sydney 14.8 (-1)
4. Collingwood 14.7 (+1)
5. West Coast 14.3 (-1)
6. Melbourne 13.3
7. Geelong 13.1
8. North Melbourne 13
9. Hawthorn 12.8
10. GWS 12.7
11. Essendon 12.0
12. Adelaide 9.7 (+1)
13. Fremantle 8.3 (-1)
14. Western Bulldogs 7.5
15. Brisbane 6.2 (+1)
16. St Kilda 6.1 (-1)
17. Cerlton 3.7
18. Gold Coast 3.5

Hardly any changes in the placings, but massive changes in the ratings themselves. Just look at the bunch from 6th (Melbourne) to 11th (Essendon), and Adelaide might be looming as a threat to that group with a couple of wins to boost their rating, now that some people are returning from injury. Hardly anybody is looking safe in the top eight - even West Coast isn't a shoo-in.

 

[Final Siren]

There's a Jake Niall article in today's Age on what Squiggle has been saying for a while:

It’s the Tigers ... and then daylight

"The Tigers won’t necessarily like hearing this, but distance between them and other contenders – yes, only at this stage – is greater than the Hawks had in any of their three-peat seasons, greater than Geelong in 2009 and 2011 when the Cats had close rivals, larger than the edge Collingwood held over the competition in 2010."​

More here: https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/it-s-the-tigers-and-then-daylight-20180630-p4zoru.html

Me 8 weeks ago:

After another big performance in both defensive & scoring shot terms, the gap between 1st (Richmond) and 2nd (Geelong) has gone past Hawks 2012 and Collingwood 2011 and is now the biggest lead a team has held on Squiggle since Geelong 2008.

As those names suggest, that's no guarantee of a flag, but it's a really unusual degree of dominance, albeit at an early point in the season.

Ranking Software / AFL Live Ladders is on board too:

​

So I think Squiggle has been vindicated in going hard early on Richmond, and sticking by them when others jumped ship to West Coast a few weeks ago.

 

[gavaniacono]

There's a Jake Niall article in today's Age on what Squiggle has been saying for a while:

It’s the Tigers ... and then daylight

"The Tigers won’t necessarily like hearing this, but distance between them and other contenders – yes, only at this stage – is greater than the Hawks had in any of their three-peat seasons, greater than Geelong in 2009 and 2011 when the Cats had close rivals, larger than the edge Collingwood held over the competition in 2010."​

More here: https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/it-s-the-tigers-and-then-daylight-20180630-p4zoru.html

Me 8 weeks ago:


Ranking Software / AFL Live Ladders is on board too:

​

So I think Squiggle has been vindicated in going hard early on Richmond, and sticking by them when others jumped ship to West Coast a few weeks ago.

Big fan of Squigs and all your efforts. Watching all rfc games i am struck by the feeling after most wins how little was between the teams and how the other mob will go away not happy but not unhappy either seeing the gap small enough to be closed the next time. Pies call this, famously, moral victories! Does squigs accumulate these results in any way that widens the gap whereas if averaged out the gap would be smaller, and therefore better matching what i see, or think I see? Which is a small gap that with little surprise can be upset any week? Is Squigs suffering Tiger fever?

 

[Final Siren]

Big fan of Squigs and all your efforts. Watching all rfc games i am struck by the feeling after most wins how little was between the teams and how the other mob will go away not happy but not unhappy either seeing the gap small enough to be closed the next time. Pies call this, famously, moral victories! Does squigs accumulate these results in any way that widens the gap whereas if averaged out the gap would be smaller, and therefore better matching what i see, or think I see? Which is a small gap that with little surprise can be upset any week? Is Squigs suffering Tiger fever?

There are seven teams that could be second-best right now: West Coast, Port Adelaide, Collingwood, Sydney, Melbourne, Geelong, and (curiously, because they may well miss finals) GWS. Two more are within easy striking distance of that position: Hawthorn and North. And two more probably won't make finals but are still threatening: Essendon and Adelaide.

So although Richmond are unusually far ahead of #2 at the moment, they're unusually close to #8, and #10, and #12. This season is very different-looking to 2015, for example, when Hawthorn were clearly the best, and West Coast were clearly #2, and then it became arguable between two or three teams, and then there was another tier below that, and so on.

That means there are plenty of teams that can beat Richmond on their day! Or, at least, provide a decent contest.

I agree with the Live Ladders tweet above that team #1 being three goals better than team #2 is a rare and remarkable thing - and yet three goals isn't a lot. It's certainly no guarantee that you're going to beat up on teams on a regular basis.

I know what you mean about these moral victories. Squiggle disagrees with most of them, tending to rate the Tigers better than the scorelines suggest. For example, last Thursday, Longmire talked about the Swans being down only 4 points in the last quarter, but Squiggle rated it as an emphatic Richmond win because Sydney's score rested on the most accurate 10+ scoring shot performance in AFL history, which is non-repeatable.

 

[Dr Tigris]

Squiggle rated it as an emphatic Richmond win because Sydney's score rested on the most accurate 10+ scoring shot performance in AFL history, which is non-repeatable.

Seriously!! I watched the game and felt the Tigers shot at goal poorly, and the Swans couldn't miss (won't discuss Rayzor). But more accurate ever, that is amazing.


And yes the movement of the Tigs one way and the chasing pack the other way was a remarkable thing this past week.

 

[lamby]

There's a Jake Niall article in today's Age on what Squiggle has been saying for a while:

It’s the Tigers ... and then daylight

"The Tigers won’t necessarily like hearing this, but distance between them and other contenders – yes, only at this stage – is greater than the Hawks had in any of their three-peat seasons, greater than Geelong in 2009 and 2011 when the Cats had close rivals, larger than the edge Collingwood held over the competition in 2010."​

This is what I like to call 'The Adelaide Crows False Premiership Zone'. This is where a team is premiership favourites, but 'something' happens.
Examples include:

• A rival coach develops the formula to negate the style of play. In 2015 the Eagles developed the 'Weagles Web' to negate the 'Crowbots' - ironically it was Don Pyke who developed it. And it will be too late to make the game style modifications.
• A season ending injury to a key player. Rhett Biglands in the 2006 Prelim. Brodie Smith & Mitch McGovern last year. Tony Modra, Sean Rehn, etc.
• A dumb coach giving away secrets. Brendon Sanderson "I really don't understand why teams don't tag Brodie Smith" in Brodie's All Australian year.

So, being favourites this far out is not really a good thing. All rival coaches will now be working out how to counter the Tiger's chaos ball. Or an injury to Rance/Riewoldt/Dusty/Nankervis.

How do the Crows counter the Tigers game plan? I would:

• Use Hartigan to tag Rance and to stop his run at the ball. This also takes a tall out of the Tiger forward line. Hold, bump, push him to stop him getting to the contest and to stop his run out of the backline.
• Replace Hartigan in the backline with Gallucci - a small fast tackler.
• Drop Fogerty (tall) and put in a pressure forward.
• Stop doing thumping spoils in the Tiger forward line. Man up in the backline and DONT employ a floating spoiler. Yes, try to mark - but don't thump the ball by a 3rd man up as that just plays into the Tiger small forwards (who are now free).

 

[iluvparis]

In contrast - Hawthorn were regular heavy faves this far out in their 3 peat years and managed to get the job done. I think you are describing an Adelaide thing not a favorites thing.

 

[lamby]

In contrast - Hawthorn were regular heavy faves this far out in their 3 peat years and managed to get the job done. I think you are describing an Adelaide thing not a favorites thing.

Hence it is called 'The Adelaide Crows False Premiership Zone' :-( Though it might also apply to a couple of other teams along the way (Saints, Bombers, Freo?)

I still think an injury to any one of Rance/Riewoldt/Dusty/Nankervis and they don't win.

 

[Final Siren]

In contrast - Hawthorn were regular heavy faves this far out in their 3 peat years and managed to get the job done. I think you are describing an Adelaide thing not a favorites thing.

Adelaide have definitely done it more than most, and more dramatically. It's still incredible that they missed the Grand Final after sitting two games and 62 percentage points clear on top after Round 16 in 2006.

But it does seem to happen a lot. Even Hawthorn don't really disprove it: They were favourites in 2012 and lost, and won as underdogs in 2014. And in 2013 they were just one of three contenders. This is maybe easy to forget since they capped the three-peat in 2015 so emphatically; we tend to look back on the whole era as one of unrivaled dominance.

 

[Forward Press]

Adelaide have definitely done it more than most, and more dramatically. It's still incredible that they missed the Grand Final after sitting two games and 62 percentage points clear on top after Round 16 in 2006.

But it does seem to happen a lot. Even Hawthorn don't really disprove it: They were favourites in 2012 and lost, and won as underdogs in 2014. And in 2013 they were just one of three contenders. This is maybe easy to forget since they capped the three-peat in 2015 so emphatically; we tend to look back on the whole era as one of unrivaled dominance.

Yeah people sometimes forget that the Hawthorn three-peat side was rarely dominant - they just performed when it mattered - not an easy feat, don't get me wrong, but they weren't destroying the opposition like Geelong 2008 or Collingwood 2011, however unlike those sides they got the chocolates at the end.

Richmond well on track in any event for back to back, none of the second tier look like challenging but of course lots of time for that to change.

 

[Elton Johns Wig]

I still think an injury to any one of Rance/Riewoldt/Dusty/Nankervis and they don't win.

I hope no teams get major injuries.

We've seen WC struggle the last couple of weeks without their 2 KPF's (and NicNat last year).

Collingwood if they lose Grundy are pretty much sunk (maybe Treloar is enough).
Swans - Buddy/Kennedy.

There's key players in all contending sides you'd say if that player was out, it's all bets off.

 

[iluvparis]

Adelaide have definitely done it more than most, and more dramatically. It's still incredible that they missed the Grand Final after sitting two games and 62 percentage points clear on top after Round 16 in 2006.

But it does seem to happen a lot. Even Hawthorn don't really disprove it: They were favourites in 2012 and lost, and won as underdogs in 2014. And in 2013 they were just one of three contenders. This is maybe easy to forget since they capped the three-peat in 2015 so emphatically; we tend to look back on the whole era as one of unrivaled dominance.

True but the comparison I was making was in 2014-15, regardless of their actual ladder position at the time they were miles ahead on the squiggle position at this stage of the year and ended up winning it. In 2013 only was Geelong ahead.

 

[Gydafud]

We're making the Granny. Lock it in!

 

[The Dice Man]

We're making the Granny. Lock it in!

Grand Final sprint maybe.

 

[Gydafud]

Grand Final sprint maybe.

Even that is at risk. Doubt we have anyone pacey enough. Stanley maybe?

 

[Xtreme]

Good to see the squiggle has retained it's natural order and kicked Geelong out of the grand final match

 

[Roobs321]

The top 8 cut-off point this year is vicious, you could be in contention for the top 4 in the last few weeks and still potentially miss the 8. Interested to see if Brisbane can get a late season surge going and grab 1-2 upsets against finals aspirants in the run home.

After seeing Uruguay exit without Cavani, and the Eagles struggling without the confidence up forward of Kennedy & Darling, injuries certainly can stunt your prospects.

Richmond appear premiers at this point, certainly the standard to measure up to.

 

[Final Siren]

Good to see the squiggle has retained it's natural order and kicked Geelong out of the grand final match

Geelong are an interesting prospect at the moment. They edged into clear second spot on Flagpole after the weekend, with a good win over the Swans. But they're two games outside the top 4.

Finishing 5th would mean their main obstacle to the Grand Final is an away semi-final against a team outside Victoria. But that's not impossible, and they'd start favourites at the moment to win a prelim vs Collingwood.

And maybe a couple of teams ahead of them will fall over and Geelong will sneak into the Top 4.

So it's a difficult road from here but I could totally see the Cats in the GF.

 

[Billy ray]

Suns no longer mathematically possible..