Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

[Dr Tigris]

Slow day was perusing historical squiggles

Noticed only three premiers came from a starting point in that year in the latter part of the squiggle field

Richmond in 2017. Geelong in 2007. Adelaide in 1997. Also Essendon 1993 to an extent

The other characteristics? Apart from being exactly a decade apart, Adelaide went b2b and geelong won three of the next five. Richmond look like there’s at least one more flag capability, and this ‘omen’ bears that out

Perhaps a sign of a team with a genuine point of difference clicking as the season comes towards its end. Get belief in their game and go ahead for a while.

Hope so.

 

[Final Siren]

Is that "Finals Chances" table available for the previous round? Just interested to see how teams like Sydney and North's chances went up or down based on the weekend's results.

Yep, you go to https://live.squiggle.com.au/ -> Tower and click the media player style buttons at the top to navigate to the round you want.

Am I correct in saying that the percentage "chance" refers to the percentage of possible simulations in which that result happens?

Yep, exactly.

Final Siren May I ask what field you work in? And what you studied to be able to create these graphs, sites, and algorithms. It’s all quite phenomenal, if you ask me.

Thanks buddy. I work in the unrelated field of novel production but fool around with maths and programming on the side.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Yep, you go to https://live.squiggle.com.au/ -> Tower and click the media player style buttons at the top to navigate to the round you want.

Cheers, I'd had a play around with the Tower but hadn't scrolled down to see that table below

So after losing to the Suns, Sydney's chances of finals went from 90.8% to 60.1% and top four went from 46% to 11.6%.

After getting pumped by Collingwood, North's chances of finals went from 33.7% to 16.4%.

On the other side of the coin, beating Port meant GWS's chances of finals went from 74.4% to a near-certain 91% and their top-four chances went from 18.3% to 42.9%.

 

[RookiePick]

The difference this year is that there is a team massively out to the top right by themselves.

*strokes chin intently*

 

[Max zero]

View attachment 533113 View attachment 533114

*strokes chin intently*

The thing is the only reason Richmond is far away like that is one game against Brisbane where they scored 110 and kept Brisbane to like 17. A great result to be sure but did that win increase their premiership credentials?

Without that win they are just to the right of Melbourne. Which I think it a far more accurate reflection of there position in relation to other teams.

 

[_DBF_]

The thing is the only reason Richmond is far away like that is one game against Brisbane where they scored 110 and kept Brisbane to like 17. A great result to be sure but did that win increase their premiership credentials?

Without that win they are just to the right of Melbourne. Which I think it a far more accurate reflection of there position in relation to other teams.

But we have maintained that position. The sideways movement, in hindsight, accurately reflects our credentials, otherwise you'd so us slowly moving left.

 

[RookiePick]

But we have maintained that position. The sideways movement, in hindsight, accurately reflects our credentials, otherwise you'd so us slowly moving left.

That reflects my understanding.

 

[Max zero]

But we have maintained that position. The sideways movement, in hindsight, accurately reflects our credentials, otherwise you'd so us slowly moving left.

But I think that win was drastically overrrated by Squiggle. The 47 point loss to WC pushed you back left about 1/5 of the win against Brisbane pushed you to the right.

I think the near 50 point loss to WC would be of far more relevance then the 90 point win against Brisbane. Yet to the Squiggle the Brisbane win was the most impact game of the season of any club.

 

[HTT]

But I think that win was drastically overrrated by Squiggle. The 47 point loss to WC pushed you back left about 1/5 of the win against Brisbane pushed you to the right.

I think the near 50 point loss to WC would be of far more relevance then the 90 point win against Brisbane. Yet to the Squiggle the Brisbane win was the most impact game of the season of any club.

That’s something from memory FS has pointed out as a minor chink in the squiggles armour. If a team is picked to score 80, half of that is 40, which is mostly a feasible score. Yet the equivalent in the other direction, doubling it, goes to 160 and we’ve only had 1 score near that this year.
But, if that WC game was reflective of our defensive ability, you’d expect by now that we’d have slowly regressed back to where we were anyway. The fact is most weeks we have met the squiggle’s expectations of us, justifying our position.

That said, I don’t think the flag is a 1 horse race. It only takes 1 off day in a prelim or GF and it’s opened right up.

 

[Final Siren]

That’s something from memory FS has pointed out as a minor chink in the squiggles armour. If a team is picked to score 80, half of that is 40, which is mostly a feasible score. Yet the equivalent in the other direction, doubling it, goes to 160 and we’ve only had 1 score near that this year.
But, if that WC game was reflective of our defensive ability, you’d expect by now that we’d have slowly regressed back to where we were anyway. The fact is most weeks we have met the squiggle’s expectations of us, justifying our position.

That said, I don’t think the flag is a 1 horse race. It only takes 1 off day in a prelim or GF and it’s opened right up.

It's definitely a quirk, but usually a favourable one.

It always looks to the human eye like Squiggle overrates exceptional defensive performances against bad teams. (And underrates close wins against good teams.) But those games really do seem to be strong indicators.

Part of the reason, I think, is that in order to keep your opposition to an extremely low score, you need to be good for the entire game. It's not the same with attacking, where you can kick a high score off the back of only two or three quarters. A single brief period of letting through two or three goals will destroy an otherwise brilliant defensive performance, so it's less likely to be a fluke.

Squiggle went super hard on Richmond after they kept Brisbane to 2.5, which I understand looks silly to people because the game itself doesn't mean a whole lot: It's not an 8-point game against a finals-bound team that the Tigers might meet again or anything. But Squiggle reacts like that, especially early in the season, because it often means a team has suddenly started doing something special:

• 2016 R2: Western Bulldogs keep St Kilda to 5.6
• 2015 R5: West Coast keep GWS to 4.9
• 2014 R4 & R7: Hawks keep GC to 7.7 (on the Gold Coast) and then St Kilda to 4.6

 

[Suma Magic]

If you question the squiggle, history (in squiggle form) will generally slap you in the face.

 

[CD Xbow]

View attachment 533113 View attachment 533114

*strokes chin intently*

I really like that comparison, hope the same outcome.

 

[Dr Tigris]

If you question the squiggle, history (in squiggle form) will generally slap you in the face.

That's cause it's just algorithms doing their thing. It's not a theory of how things work that is put into mathematical structure.

One of the things I like about the Squiggle is that it is relatively simple modeling with fairly simple analytics. You can actually see what it going on. So often you get analytics that are indecipherable unless you have a Masters in stats and know all the intricacies of the logic behind the model.

 

[iluvparis]

I really like that comparison, hope the same outcome.

Hope is the right word - I wouldn't bank on that extreme statistical outlier that was the 2008 GF result to repeat itself again any time soon.

 

[lamby]

Thanks buddy. I work in the unrelated field of novel production but fool around with maths and programming on the side.

Final Siren is being modest. He is an internationally renowned writer! He has had some of his books turned into movies and games. His avatar is the cover to his book Jennifer Government. Buy one of his books (Lexicon or Jennifer Government are fantastic - I have not read the others yet), as not only are they great reads, but it will help fund his squiggle stuff

https://maxbarry.com/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Max_Barry

 

[Pessimistic]

Just wondering why Port got such a lurch to defence in one round even though other teams brushed aside ‘struggling’ opposition too

 

[RookiePick]

The Squiggle shows the truth. We peaked with our win over Richmond and have been steadily losing momentum. Got up for a big win anhainst Collingwood but that is one stand up performance in a few months.

Definitely worried we lack the hunger to ruthlessly go and get the cup. The other sides arent just going to roll over and give it to us.

 

[Forward Press]

The Squiggle shows the truth. We peaked with our win over Richmond and have been steadily losing momentum. Got up for a big win anhainst Collingwood but that is one stand up performance in a few months.

Definitely worried we lack the hunger to ruthlessly go and get the cup. The other sides arent just going to roll over and give it to us.

GWS? I believe the win against the Dogs also exceeded squiggle forecasts.

But yes, we are stuttering. The key is that we've banked the wins and the hope is to hit form at the right time.

 

[Suma Magic]

Final Siren

Any chance you could provide updated top 2% summaries?

Or if it's not too much trouble, add top 2 and top 6 %s to the tower of power permanently?

Thanks again.

 

[the harry]

Thanks buddy. I work in the unrelated field of novel production but fool around with maths and programming on the side.

If there was ever a line to trigger inadequacies

 

[Chrizzt]

Just wondering why Port got such a lurch to defence in one round even though other teams brushed aside ‘struggling’ opposition too

Low number of goals from low number of scoring shots at an away venue. A bit surprised by the magnitude of the lurch - but as Final Siren posted above: you've gotta be on for the whole game to have a defensive performance like that.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

After being pummeled by the Roos, Eagles' chances of finishing on top went from 10.4% to 1.4%. Richmond now all but assured of the minor premiership. (When was their last one of those?) Eagles' chances of a top four finish went from 90.1% to 76.1%.

Conversely, North's chances of playing finals went from 16.4% to 25.1%.

Sydney's finals chances fell in a big hole after their loss to Essendon, went from 60.1% to 30.9%. Essendon's own chances went down slightly despite their win, presumably because teams above them like North and Hawthorn won.

Crows' finals chances virtually killed off with their loss to Melbourne, went from 12.2% longshots to 1.8% extra extra long shots.

 

[iluvparis]

Big props to Squiggsy for hating the Swans so early - I still thought they'd be a top 4 side this time 3 weeks ago - squiggsy hated them for much of the season!

 

[Final Siren]

Final Siren

Any chance you could provide updated top 2% summaries?

Or if it's not too much trouble, add top 2 and top 6 %s to the tower of power permanently?

Thanks again.

Top 2 chances:
100% Richmond
41% West Coast
20% Collingwood
16% Port Adelaide
12% Melbourne
7% GWS
3% Geelong
2% Hawthorn

 

[Final Siren]

Low number of goals from low number of scoring shots at an away venue. A bit surprised by the magnitude of the lurch - but as Final Siren posted above: you've gotta be on for the whole game to have a defensive performance like that.

Wow, yep, that's a big one. You're exactly right about the reason.

The game was weather affected, which Squiggle doesn't know about, so it has likely overrated Port a little.