Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

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Jul 13, 2015
36,308
40,471
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I started tracking this in 2019, because I suspected the answer was "almost always." Preseason ladder predictions in the media can be really wild, and only rarely did anyone ever go back and check how they held up.

Unfortunately we only got in one regular year before the massive disruption of 2020, where the fixture completely changed one round after the season started. And 2021 wasn't back to normal, either, with most of the fixture yet to be written at the start of the year. That meant models couldn't calculate which teams had easier/harder draws - or, in 2020, calculated it from a fixture that wasn't used in practice.

But in 2019, Squiggle's preseason ladder prediction was better than 29 out of 30 media ladders (details here). In 2020, it was better than 21 out of 38 media ladders (details here). In 2021, it was better than 19 out of 25 media ladders (details here).

I'm pretty sure at least a couple of these media types check the models, too! So their predictions are actually not completely independent.

So if COVID buggered off you'd be doing a pretty decent job.
 

TheUnicorn

Premiership Player
Nov 1, 2021
3,340
5,098
AFL Club
Essendon
WLD%
1.Melbourne2110131.7%
2.Gold Coast1840131.2%
3.Port Adelaide1840120.6%
4.Brisbane Lions1750121.9%
5.Western Bulldogs1750117.4%
6.Sydney1660110.6%
7.GWS1480109.2%
8.Richmond1480104.6%
9.Essendon913094.9%
10.Geelong814094.9%
11.St Kilda814091.5%
12.Fremantle814091.4%
13.Collingwood616084.2%
14.West Coast616083.6%
15.Adelaide517089.0%
16.Hawthorn517084.2%
17.Carlton418083.5%
18.North Melbourne418080.6%

This was kinda fun

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Nov 10, 2013
23,829
37,134
The Valley near the Alley
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Other Teams
Hell no
WLD%
1.Melbourne2110131.7%
2.Gold Coast1840131.2%
3.Port Adelaide1840120.6%
4.Brisbane Lions1750121.9%
5.Western Bulldogs1750117.4%
6.Sydney1660110.6%
7.GWS1480109.2%
8.Richmond1480104.6%
9.Essendon913094.9%
10.Geelong814094.9%
11.St Kilda814091.5%
12.Fremantle814091.4%
13.Collingwood616084.2%
14.West Coast616083.6%
15.Adelaide517089.0%
16.Hawthorn517084.2%
17.Carlton418083.5%
18.North Melbourne418080.6%
QF1: MELBOURNE v Brisbane Lions
QF2: GOLD COAST v Port Adelaide
EF1: WESTERN BULLDOGS v Richmond
EF2: SYDNEY v GWS

SF1: BRISBANE LIONS v Western Bulldogs
SF2: Port Adelaide v SYDNEY

PF1: MELBOURNE v Sydney
PF2: GOLD COAST v Brisbane Lions

GF: Melbourne v GOLD COAST


Finals added.
B E L I E F
 

Ricky90

Club Legend
Mar 31, 2011
1,820
1,616
AFL Club
Collingwood
Apologise if this has been asked before but I can't find anything using search function.

Does anyone know of any similar utilities to Squiggle but for the NRL?
 

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Hobbes

Club Legend
Jul 20, 2006
1,846
2,551
Oxfordshire, UK
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Glenelg
WLD%
1.Melbourne2110131.7%
2.Gold Coast1840131.2%
3.Port Adelaide1840120.6%
4.Brisbane Lions1750121.9%
5.Western Bulldogs1750117.4%
6.Sydney1660110.6%
7.GWS1480109.2%
8.Richmond1480104.6%
9.Essendon913094.9%
10.Geelong814094.9%
11.St Kilda814091.5%
12.Fremantle814091.4%
13.Collingwood616084.2%
14.West Coast616083.6%
15.Adelaide517089.0%
16.Hawthorn517084.2%
17.Carlton418083.5%
18.North Melbourne418080.6%
QF1: MELBOURNE v Brisbane Lions
QF2: GOLD COAST v Port Adelaide
EF1: WESTERN BULLDOGS v Richmond
EF2: SYDNEY v GWS

SF1: BRISBANE LIONS v Western Bulldogs
SF2: Port Adelaide v SYDNEY

PF1: MELBOURNE v Sydney
PF2: GOLD COAST v Brisbane Lions

GF: Melbourne v GOLD COAST


Finals added.
B E L I E F

Does this set some kind of record in being proven wrong by round 5, as Port lost their fifth match?
 

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