Mega Thread The Stats Thread

[The King!]

We're still 2nd in tackles and 3rd in contested possessions, but we're 18th in both contested possessions and tackles against, which would suggest we are getting beaten at our own game.

Yeah football

 

[grimlock]

 

[grimlock]

What the stats clearly illustrate is that these are 2 sides that are very bad at football, particularly in the forward half. Swans are 16th and Carlton 17th in converting an inside 50 into a goal (Collingwood are dead last for those interested).

Swans still playing a very highly contested game style, but being beaten to it by their opponents so far. Good news for us is that Carlton have the lowest number of contested possessions in the AFL this year.

 

[RW]

I can't remember us ever being ranked so low in so many categories since you started keeping these stats...

 

[GotTheGoodes]

I can't remember us ever being ranked so low in so many categories since you started keeping these stats...

Yep................

 

[GotTheGoodes]

Frees against should be interesting.... *starts moving all breakables out of the living room*

 

[scaryness]

Isolated 1v1 in D50.
Competition averages: 28% Win, 42% Neutral, 30% Loss. Win/Loss is possessions (or spoils leading to teammate possession) to one of the two involved. Third player in, stoppage, etc is neutral, regardless of which team it is.

Swans:
34% Win (2nd to GWS)
38% Neutral (4th lowest)
28% Loss (3rd lowest behind Geelong and Richmond)

Players:
Rampe - 37% Win (8th of 49 players with 20+ contests), 37% Neutral (12 lowest), 26% Loss (19th lowest)
Grundy - 37% Win (9th), 33% Neutral (7th lowest), 30% Loss (34th lowest)

Interested to know how this has changed so far this season, and how many uncontested marks inside 50 we allow.

Champion_Data?

 

[grimlock]

Opposition stat watch: Brisbane Lions

Defence = atrocious

• Brisbane have conceded the most inside 50s in the AFL, letting in an average 62.5 per game ranked last in the AFL (Swans 14th 55.5). The Lions also rank 16th in opposition score per opposition inside 50 (49.33%) and 18th in opposition mark inside 50 per opposition inside 50 (29.87%). For comparison, the Swans are 12th (44.14%) and 1st (19.22%) in these categories respectively.

Midfield = above average in winning the ball, terrible in converting to scores

• The Lions rank 5th in clearance differential with +2.7, the Swans in comparison are 13th with -2.8. Their ruckman Stefan Martin has to be one of the main reasons for their dominance in this area, ranking 3rd in hitouts (245) but also very effective at ground level ranking second at the Lions in clearances (6.33) behind Tom Rockliff. However, despite on average winning more clearances than their opposition, the Lions are clearly last in inside 50s with 46.0 per game (Swans 13th 49.5). Their disposal efficiency of 71.60% (16th) back this up (Swans 18th 70.15%)

Attack = average

• However once the Lions move the ball inside 50, they are relatively okay in converting these into goals. They convert 26.09% of their inside 50s into goals, ranked 9th in the AFL (Swans 15th with 22.22%). This has been backed up by their goalkicking accuracy of 63.16% (4th) while the Swans have struggled at 56.90% (13th)

 

[grimlock]

Richmond

Attack: Poor conversion but volume makes up for it.

The Tigers get the ball forward inside 50 the third most in the competition, but when they do get it in there they are almost the worst in the competition in turning it into a goal. They average the 2nd most marks inside 50 behind the rampant Crows forward line, but their goalkicking accuracy ranks 14th in the AFL.

Midfield: Contested style but one that relies more on kicks

The Tigers have the highest contested possession rate in the competition, but this is more due to their lack of uncontested possessions (18th) than a high number of contested possessions. This stat combined with their high kick to handball ratio indicates a preference to play a more direct style rather than a keepings off possession based game.

Defence: One of the best in the business

The Tigers and the Power are the best 2 defences in the AFL at the moment, albeit in different methods. The Power defend further up the field, holding their opponents to a low number of inside 50s. The Tigers are about average in this stat, but led by Alex Rance, their back 6 plays especially well as a unit to limit their opponents' conversion rate to the worst in the AFL.

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

I'd be fascinated to see those rankings restricted to Round 7 onwards.

 

[grimlock]

Player watch #1: Toby Nankervis
Nankervis has been a godsend for the Tigers, arriving at the club at the right moment with Ivan Maric past his best, Shaun Hampson out indefinitely with a back injury. His ruckwork is adequate, ranking 20th in hitouts per game, but it's his work around the ground that is elite for ruckmen.

For the top 20 hitout winners in the AFL, Nankervis ranks 1st in intercepts possessions, 1st in intercept marks, 6th in tackles and 1st in smothers.

 

[grimlock]

I'd be fascinated to see those rankings restricted to Round 7 onwards.

Including or excluding Round 7?

 

[grimlock]

Player watch #2: Dustin Martin

Martin is the hottest (R)FA this coming off season, and is having a stellar season both in the midfield and in the forward line, ranking

• 13th in disposals per game (29.92)
• 1st in inside 50s per game (6.09)
• equal 2nd in total goals (16) for players averaging 20 or more disposals per game (138 in total)
• equal 8th in goal assists (12)
• 3rd in score involvements (7.91) for players averaging 20 or more disposals per game (138 in total), only trailing Ablett and Pendlebury.

However Martin also has weaknesses to his game, most notably his poor disposal. Of the 138 players averaging 20 or more disposals a game, Martin ranks 130th with a very poor 61.70% disposal efficiency. He has also tallied up the most turnovers of any player in the league, averaging 6.27 turnovers per game, with 12 of these turnovers leading to an opposition goal, also a league high.

 

[grimlock]

I'd be fascinated to see those rankings restricted to Round 7 onwards.

Summary: Rounds 7-12, the Swans are winning more outside ball and their defence has returned to its miserly best

 

[scaryness]

grimlock >>>>> David King

 

[grimlock]

grimlock >>>>> David King

I'm not that fat.

 

[GotTheGoodes]

I'm not that fat.

"P" "H" Grim...

#phatstats

 

[Tedeski]

Now thsy are stats that mean something.

 

[CheapCharlie]

Summary: Rounds 7-12, the Swans are winning more outside ball and their defence has returned to its miserly best

Wow!. Some interesting numbers for both teams from rounds 7-12

I am surprised at how evenly matched these teams are from round 7 onwards based on the stats.

 

[Tuco]

Nothing between these sides really looking at those stats.

The big change seems to be our increased use of uncontested ball - which I'd say is the biggest change we've made tactically since those first 6 losses.

Our goals from turnovers were terrible earlier this year. I'd say moving the ball around might be the way we've addressed this.

Goals conceded has improved for us...but I think that comes from winning most of our recent games.

 

[SwansProudly]

Summary: Rounds 7-12, the Swans are winning more outside ball and their defence has returned to its miserly best

Awesome. Love it

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

Geez, Grim, that was just a speculative comment......but thanks heaps! No shortage of quality in Richmond's opposition over that period either.

Going on those stats, this game should be a cracker!!

 

[GotTheGoodes]

So just looking over the figures Grim so excellently provided above...



What stands out to me is the % uplift in our Goals per I50 combined with a significant uplift in the conversion rate over the same period. We're more efficient & effective at kicking goals since round 6.

Taking Richmonds increase/decrease in the same stats into account, we're pumping the ball in approx 14% more than them, per entry we're also scoring goals approx 20% more than they are up the other end and we've tightened up i50s conceded (level with them now) also. That all has to be down to a significant increase in midfield pressure right? Probably in line with the form of Hanners/Parker. They are pushing hard back/forward and we are a much much better side.

We have the clear advantage of uncontested possession too so hopefully we can hold the ball for long periods and keep the game a lowish scoring one.

 

[grimlock]

Stats from Round 7 (inclusive) onwards

Attack
Both sides have kicked the 2nd most goals in this period, 91 goals at an average of 15.2 per game which ranks 2nd behind the Demons' 94 at 15.7 per game. The Bombers have also been the most efficient attacking side during this period with 31.3% of their inside 50 entries resulting in a goal, the Swans are 3rd with 26.8%.

Midfield
The Bombers play the most uncontested style of football in the AFL with only 33.71% of their possessions being contested. The Bombers have starved their opposition of the ball since Round 7, conceding an average of 366.00 per game. Surprisingly the Swans are last in tackles during this period with their average of 59.5 tackles per game way below the competition average of 71.3

Defence
Swans rank 2nd and Bombers 3rd in goal conceded per inside 50 conceded (21.40% and 22.39%) respectively. Interestingly the Bombers have conceded the 3rd most average inside 50s during this period (56.3) but this is mitigated by the fact that their opponents have had the worst goalkicking accuracy, converting only 51.7% of shots

 

[GotTheGoodes]

Stats from Round 7 (inclusive) onwards

Attack
Both sides have kicked the 2nd most goals in this period, 91 goals at an average of 15.2 per game which ranks 2nd behind the Demons' 94 at 15.7 per game. The Bombers have also been the most efficient attacking side during this period with 31.3% of their inside 50 entries resulting in a goal, the Swans are 3rd with 26.8%.

Midfield
The Bombers play the most uncontested style of football in the AFL with only 33.71% of their possessions being contested. The Bombers have starved their opposition of the ball since Round 7, conceding an average of 366.00 per game. Surprisingly the Swans are last in tackles during this period with their average of 59.5 tackles per game way below the competition average of 71.3

Defence
Swans rank 2nd and Bombers 3rd in goal conceded per inside 50 conceded (21.40% and 22.39%) respectively. Interestingly the Bombers have conceded the 3rd most average inside 50s during this period (56.3) but this is mitigated by the fact that their opponents have had the worst goalkicking accuracy, converting only 51.7% of shots

So very similar?

Sounds like they like pushing fwd 50 entries wide into the pockets (like us) & would rather zone back than play man on man (like us)...

Going to be an interesting game I reckon.