GotTheGoodes
Bloods
- Moderator
- #526
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Oh great one. An insight into this weekend?Here is how I see it based on Grim's stats of the last 8 weeks.
Essendon have only played 1 top 8 team in those games, against Adelaide at Etihad & had 20 scoring shots to Adelaide's 35. They should have been totally demolished. Prior to these games they were beaten by the wooden spooner in Brisbane.
That table for uncontested footy is headed by many teams who finished outside the 8.
I think that if we just play true to form & if it was a H & A game for percentage, we would win this by 50 points plus pulling away but because it is a final, we may go into self preservation/defensive mode in the last. This game should be decided by 3/4 time.
Relax & enjoy our practice run for bigger & better challenges at the MCG the following week!
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Luke casually leading disposals, tackles and clearances but we should trade him. Smdh.Not quite to the level of analysis that grim provides but thought I'd post this anyway as it was on the Swans website.
Kicks
1. Jake Lloyd - 370
2. Lance Franklin - 316
3. Luke Parker - 304
4. Callum Mills - 267
5. Nic Newman - 260
Handballs
1. Josh Kennedy - 344
2. Dan Hannebery - 328
3. Luke Parker - 304
4. George Hewett - 250
5. Jake Lloyd - 227
Disposals
1. Luke Parker - 608
2. Jake Lloyd - 597
3. Josh Kennedy - 592
4. Dan Hannebery - 569
5. Zak Jones - 458
Clearances
1. Luke Parker – 151
2. Josh Kennedy – 142
3. George Hewett – 77
4. Dan Hannebery – 71
5. Isaac Heeney – 64
Marks
1. Lance Franklin – 158
2. Jake Lloyd – 136
3. Sam Reid – 134
4. Heath Grundy – 130
5. Callum Mills – 121
Tackles
1. Luke Parker – 134
2. Dan Hannebery – 119
3. George Hewett – 115
4. Josh Kennedy – 103
5. Isaac Heeney – 95
Goals
1. Lance Franklin – 73
2. Tom Papley – 30
2. Sam Reid – 30
4. Will Hayward – 22
4. Gary Rohan – 22
Goal Assists
1. Lance Franklin – 19
2. Kieren Jack – 18
2. Tom Papley – 18
4. Zak Jones – 15
4. Dan Hannebery - 15
Plugging some numbers into the stats machine (no not SM) for tonight's game, some disturbing results have come up.
First, the Swans have the equal 2nd worst I50 differential in the league, tied with St Kilda and the Brisbane Lions. Most disturbingly, we've only averaged 49 inside 50s ranking 2nd last in the league.
Last week's tally of 42 inside 50s for (a season low) and 60 inside 50's conceded (an equal season high with R1 v West Coast) against an inexperienced Bulldogs team, resulting in a net -18 inside 50s would have lost most according to historical AFL stats.
Table 1: I50 differential
Rank | Team | I50 for | I50 against | I50 diff
\1st|Melbourne|59.8|48.0|+11.8
\2nd|West Coast|58.8|51.8|+7.0
\3rd|Richmond|57.0|50.3|+6.7
\4th|Hawthorn|56.8|52.3|+4.5
\5th|GWS|56.8|52.5|+4.3
\6th|Port Adelaide|54.0|50.3|+3.7
\7th|Fremantle|55.0|51.5|+3.5
\8th|W. Bulldogs|55.3|53.3|+2.0
\9th|Collingwood|54.8|53.8|+1.0
\10th|N. Melbourne|53.5|54.0|-0.5
\ 11th | Adelaide | 54.3 | 55.3 | -1.0
\12th|Essendon|51.5|53.0|-1.5
\13th|Carlton|52.8|56.8|-4.0
\14th|Gold Coast|52.3|57.5|-5.2
\15th|Geelong|50.3|57.5|-7.2
\eq 16th|St Kilda|49.5|57.0|-7.5
\ eq 16th | Sydney | 49.0 | 56.5 | -7.5
\18th|Brisbane|45.8|55.8|-10.0
\ AFL | Average | 53.7 | 53.7 | 0.0
However, this has been masked somewhat by our forward rate conversion, led of course by the incomparable Lance Franklin and a notable improvement in goalkicking accuracy (12th last year).
Table 2: I50 that result in a goal (%)
Rank | Team | I50 goal rate (%)
\ 1st | Sydney | 29.08%
\2nd|Geelong|28.86%
\3rd|West Coast|28.09%
\4th|Hawthorn|27.75%
\5th|Essendon|27.18%
\6th|Richmond|26.32%
\7th|Port Adelaide|25.93%
\8th|GWS|25.55%
\ 9th | Adelaide | 24.88%
\10th|Collingwood|24.20%
\11th|N. Melbourne|22.90%
\12th|Melbourne|21.34%
\13th|Brisbane|20.77%
\14th|Fremantle|20.45%
\15th|Gold Coast|19.62%
\16th|W. Bulldogs|18.55%
\17th|Carlton|18.48%
\18th|St Kilda|17.68%
\ AFL | Average | 23.79%
Table 3: Goalkicking accuracy
Rank | Team | GK%
\ 1st | Sydney | 56.44%
\2nd|Hawthorn|56.25%
\3rd|West Coast|55.93%
\4th|Collingwood|54.64%
\ 5th | Adelaide | 52.94%
\6th|Geelong|52.73%
\7th|Richmond|50.85%
\8th|Essendon|50.45%
\9th|N. Melbourne|48.04%
\10th|Port Adelaide|47.86%
\11th|Carlton|47.56%
\12th|GWS|47.54%
\13th|Fremantle|46.88%
\14th|Melbourne|44.35%
\15th|Gold Coast|44.09%
\16th|Brisbane|43.68%
\17th|St Kilda|39.77%
\18th|W. Bulldogs|37.61%
\ AFL | Average | 48.94%
At the other end, despite some isolated moments of shakiness, the stats show that on the whole, the back 6 is holding up very well.
Table 4: I50 conceded that result in an opposition goal (%)
Rank | Team | I50 goal rate (%)
\1st|N. Melbourne|15.74%
\2nd|GWS|20.00%
\3rd|Gold Coast|20.87%
\ 4th | Sydney | 22.12%
\ 5th | Adelaide | 22.17%
\6th|Geelong|22.17%
\7th|West Coast|22.71%
\8th|Hawthorn|22.97%
\9th|Collingwood|23.26%
\10th|Richmond|23.88%
\11th|St Kilda|24.12%
\12th|Port Adelaide|24.38%
\13th|Fremantle|24.76%
\14th|Essendon|25.47%
\15th|Brisbane|26.91%
\16th|Melbourne|28.65%
\17th|Carlton|29.07%
\18th|W. Bulldogs|29.58%
\ AFL | Average | 23.79%
The questions going into tonight's game then, are:
- Can the Swans maintain their efficiently strong showing at either end of the ground?
- Will that be sufficient enough to paper over the cracks over what has been an underperforming midfield so far in 2018, or will the likes of Kennedy, Hannebery and Jack need to lift and take advantage of a weakened Crows outfit.
I forgot about this thread![]()
time to head back to the room
Honestly I think this team is finished. Our midfield has well and truly fallen off a cliff and with Horse steering a broken ship I think we're destined to be sunk and then drown slowly.Okay let’s go back losing the inside 50 count, kicking accurately and winning the game. Thanks.
Honestly I think this team is finished. Our midfield has well and truly fallen off a cliff and with Horse steering a broken ship I think we're destined to be sunk and then drown slowly.
If we got paid to be supporters the Swans would be bankrupt.This is why we don't get paid to be supporters.
We give up too easy.
The main talk around North so far this year has revolved around the brilliance of Ben Brown, whose strong leading and accurate kicking has him sitting 4 clear of Luke Breust on top of the AFL goalkicking charts. He has undoubtedly been brilliant and deserves all the plaudits coming his way, and it is hard to argue that his form has helped North to a better position than most pundits were expecting at the beginning of the season.
However, if we take a closer look at the stats, we can see it is their defence that is contributing just as much, if not more to their success this year. They have conceded the 2nd least amount of goals, have the 2nd highest number of intercept possessions, and are the 2nd most miserly side when it comes to opposition's Inside 50 to goal conversion rate.
They have been led in defence by Scott Thompson who is posting intercept numbers that rank alongside noted intercept defenders Rance and McGovern.
Just like against Geelong, the Swans' midfielders will have to be careful not to bomb long to their smaller forwards because Thompson will be ready to intercept and launch counter attacks from the Kangaroos' back half.
Yes also they've played Carlton and St KildaAre North's stats skewed by the game they played against Gold Coast in torrential rain?
It's a must win game & win by plenty we must because I can't struggle to see us beating the Hawks at the MCG tbe following week as it will be the "keepings off" style that we just don't get.