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Dour defences destined to dominate
One person that is unlikely to be happy tonight is Tim Worner, the boss of Channel 7 who recently said that the AFL needed more goals per game, because it gave his network more opportunities to show ads during the breaks between goals.

Well don't expect it to come in this game Tim, as we have the 2 best defences in the league on show tonight. The Cats and the Swans are ranked #1 and #2 respectively in goals conceded, with the Swans just edging out the Cats in the goals conceded per inside 50 conceded category. This is due to the Swans absorbing more inside 50s than the Cats (Swans ranked 13th, Cats 8th in inside 50s conceded)

Table 1: Goals Conceded
Rank | Team | Goals Conceded
\ 1st | GEE | 9.71
\ 2nd | SYD | 10.07
\3rd|RIC|10.64
\4th|HAW|10.93
\5th|GWS|11.00
\5th|PTA|11.00
\5th|NTH|11.00
\8th|WCE|11.07
\9th|COL|11.50
\10th|ADE|11.79
\11th|MEL|12.21
\12th|ESS|12.36
\13th|FRE|12.71
\14th|GCS|13.71
\15th|WBD|13.93
\15th|BRL|13.93
\17th|STK|14.29
\18th|CAR|14.57
\ Mean | Mean | 12.02

Table 2: Goals Conceded / Inside 50 conceded
Rank | Team | G/I50
\ 1st | SYD | 18.48%
\ 2nd | GEE | 18.55%
\3rd|NTH|20.67%
\4th|GWS|20.75%
\5th|RIC|21.16%
\6th|WCE|21.71%
\7th|PTA|21.84%
\8th|GCS|22.38%
\9th|ADE|22.82%
\10th|COL|22.87%
\11th|ESS|22.97%
\12th|HAW|23.72%
\13th|FRE|24.32%
\14th|BRL|25.03%
\15th|WBD|25.36%
\16th|MEL|25.48%
\17th|CAR|26.09%
\18th|STK|26.14%
\ Mean | Mean | 22.80%

Table 3: Inside 50s conceded
Rank | Team | I50
\1st|HAW|46.07
\2nd|MEL|47.93
\3rd|COL|50.29
\3rd|RIC|50.29
\5th|PTA|50.36
\6th|WCE|51.00
\7th|ADE|51.64
\8th|FRE|52.29
\ 9th | GEE | 52.36
\10th|GWS|53.00
\11th|NTH|53.21
\12th|ESS|53.79
\ 13th | SYD | 54.50
\14th|STK|54.64
\15th|WBD|54.93
\16th|BRL|55.64
\17th|CAR|55.86
\18th|GCS|61.29
\ Mean | Mean | 52.73

Why are the Cats so bad at clearances?
With the return of Gary Ablett, Cats fans were salivating at the thought of a Selwood-Dangerfield-Ablett centre square triumvirate who would strike fear in the hearts of opposition midfielders. However the resulting numbers this year have shown that there are cases of substraction through addition. Rodney Eade and in particular Paul Roos have explained this phenomenon by pointing out that none of the 3 are particularly defensively minded, so the Cats tend to conceded a lot of easy clearances when the opposition get first hands on the ball.

We use the derived statistic Clearance Percentage to scale each team's clearance statistics to the number of clearance opportunities. While not perfect, it can give us a rough idea of the clearance capabilities of a team.

Clearance (%) = Clearances / (Clearances + Opp Clearances) * 100

The Cats were bottom of this ladder for a long time, only moving out of bottom 2 in the last week. This has coincided with two of the big guns Ablett and Dangerfield spending more time out of the middle, Ablett on a wing and in Danger's case in the forward line. Their spots have been replaced by Tim Kelly, Sam Menegola and in particular last week Quinton Narkle. Expect this trend to continue with Scott Selwood's inclusion tonight.

Table 4: Clearance %
Rank | Team | CLR%
\1st|COL|52.62%
\2nd|FRE|51.78%
\3rd|ESS|51.25%
\4th|PTA|51.00%
\5th|GWS|50.91%
\6th|WBD|50.70%
\7th|MEL|50.65%
\ 8th | SYD | 50.48%
\9th|BRL|50.48%
\10th|WCE|50.34%
\11th|NTH|50.15%
\12th|CAR|49.70%
\13th|ADE|49.30%
\14th|HAW|49.25%
\15th|STK|49.20%
\ 16th | GEE | 48.05%
\17th|GCS|47.54%
\18th|RIC|46.55%
\ Mean | Mean | 50.00%
 
Lost clearances and if they kicked straight would have conceded a ton of goals. I probably should stop writing these, they keep turning out to be a curse.
 

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grimlock said:
Lost clearances and if they kicked straight would have conceded a ton of goals. I probably should stop writing these, they keep turning out to be a curse.
Click to expand...

I think the analysis by Eade and Roos was correct, the Cats can concede easy clearances when the opposition get first hands to the ball, like in Round 6 when Kennedy beat them almost single-handedly in the last quarter. We just didn't get first hands to the ball often enough.
 
Did anyone see on ABC Breakfast this AM the interview with the author James Coventry of "Footballisitcs"?
I've just ordered it :)
1. Blondes win more Brownlow medals!
2. Some players are better when their team is 2 goals down in the last quarter eg. Bontempelli (not Dusty Martin!)
....
footballistics book.jpg
http://www.hpnfooty.com/?p=30312
We need to get James Coventry to the Swans (pity he is a Port Adelaide fan).
https://shop.abc.net.au/footballistics
 
Last edited:
Note: stats do not include last night's game

North Melbourne, more Brown-centric than we are Buddy-centric

Table 1: Leading inside 50 targets by club, and what percentage of their team's inside 50 targets go to them (adjusted by the number of games they've played)
Player | Team | I50 Target/Team I50 Targets | Games | I50 Target (%)
\ Brown | NTH | 218/687 | 15 | 31.73%
\Kennedy|WCE|123/697|9|29.41%
\Lynch|GCS|110/610|10|27.05%
\Hawkins|GEE|153/696|13|25.36%
\ Franklin | SYD | 137/676 | 12 | 25.33%
\Jenkins|ADE|143/662|15|21.60%
\Dixon|PTA|152/710|15|21.41%
\Cameron|GWS|118/692|12|21.32%
\C.Curnow|CAR|104/575|13|20.87%
\McCartin|STK|120/666|13|20.79%
\Riewoldt|RIC|148/731|15|20.25%
\McCarthy|FRE|80/623|11|17.51%
\Hipwood|BRL|106/644|15|16.46%
\Hogan|MEL|127/797|15|15.93%
\Cox|COL|92/715|14|13.79%
\Roughead|HAW|93/714|15|13.03%
\Stringer|ESS|86/678|15|12.68%
\Gowers|WBD|74/682|15|10.85%

This shows how often the Kangaroos head to Brown when going inside 50, and with good reason too as his leading and long reach often makes it nigh on impossible for opposition defenders to stop him. However with Waite and Wood (who killed us last time) out, we can concentrate even more on stopping Brown without worrying too much about the other Kangaroos forwards. Their 2nd most potent forward playing on Sunday will be Ziebell who has turned himself into a useful if somewhat inaccurate medium forward (19 goals 22 behinds).

A possible "stop Brown" strategy could be Rampe who has the pace off the mark to go with Brown playing behind, and an intercepting defender in Grundy (who really doesn't have a natural opponent unless Daw plays forward) or Aliir playing loose-ish and dropping in the hole in front of Brown's leading space. Other teams have worked this method reasonably successfully this year.
 
The ABC clip for the Footballistic book I mentioned above


From ABCbookshop
A number of different authors contributed chapters to the book and while some are more profound than others, every chapter has something interesting to say. A very enjoyable read for those who are interested in stats, AFL, or where the two meet. The first chapter looks at goal kicking, what influences accuracy and whether this has changed over time. It also ties into a theme of the next few chapters: how the game structure has changed - goal kicking is now less dominated by a single player. It also looks at the persistence of accuracy from one season to the next, and the impact of weather. It turns out that random vairation and luck play a much bigger part than most people think. Chapters 2, 3 and 6 cover some of the player stats that have become ubiquitous: expected goals (given where the shots was taken), score involvements and other stats broken down by part of the ground. Stats of this type are trying to measure the quality as well as the quantity of a player's output. The score involvements stat gives some real insights into the different styles of play, how this is changing over time and also the way that players impact the game. This is one of stats that strategists look at to see what works and what doesn't and in turn this has been instrumental in driving changes to strategies being used by teams - both in what they've stopped doing and what they've started doing. Chapter 6 in particluar gives a good understanding of how teams are using this information to change what they do. Chapter 7 looks at the impact of travel on teams. It is of interest to punters like me but s focussed more on the physical impact of travel and how this wears down players over time. It's clear that the impact on those who have to battle the long flight to and from Perth is much greater than on players staying in the same time zone and shorter flights of the east coast. This is something that administrators should take note of as it almost certainly is putting Perth teams at a persistent disadvantage. Chapters 8 and 9 explore the impact of the draft and trading. When done well, this has been the basis of some of the most successful teams of the last 20 years, notably Geelong and Hawthorn. So how do you do this well? It's not clear that it wasn't just luck that lead those teams to such success. The book uses a measure called Player Average Value (PAV) to assess the value of each player. Higher draft picks have a higher expected PAV based on history but a high draft pick is no guarantee that a plyer will even play a game. The book gives examples where trading to get a high draft pick was a train wreck and other examples where giving away a high draft pick was equally bad. Draft years also vary enormously. While there's no magic formula, drafting and trading are comething that each team needs to spend time on - and this is now widely recognised. The rest of the chapters range through topics such as: whether momentum is anything more than random variation; player traits that win a Brownlow Medal (blonde hair helps!); Hall of Fame (warning - if you live outside of Victoria this chapter will make you mad); team ratings across eras and even states; which state has the most devoted fans; and football finance. These chapters make anumber intersting observations but without the same clarity and impact of the key chapters highlighted above. Overall, a great read which I devoured in record time and have even been buying copies for friends who will enjoy it.
 
SwansProudly said:
The ABC clip for the Footballistic book I mentioned above


From ABCbookshop
A number of different authors contributed chapters to the book and while some are more profound than others, every chapter has something interesting to say. A very enjoyable read for those who are interested in stats, AFL, or where the two meet. The first chapter looks at goal kicking, what influences accuracy and whether this has changed over time. It also ties into a theme of the next few chapters: how the game structure has changed - goal kicking is now less dominated by a single player. It also looks at the persistence of accuracy from one season to the next, and the impact of weather. It turns out that random vairation and luck play a much bigger part than most people think. Chapters 2, 3 and 6 cover some of the player stats that have become ubiquitous: expected goals (given where the shots was taken), score involvements and other stats broken down by part of the ground. Stats of this type are trying to measure the quality as well as the quantity of a player's output. The score involvements stat gives some real insights into the different styles of play, how this is changing over time and also the way that players impact the game. This is one of stats that strategists look at to see what works and what doesn't and in turn this has been instrumental in driving changes to strategies being used by teams - both in what they've stopped doing and what they've started doing. Chapter 6 in particluar gives a good understanding of how teams are using this information to change what they do. Chapter 7 looks at the impact of travel on teams. It is of interest to punters like me but s focussed more on the physical impact of travel and how this wears down players over time. It's clear that the impact on those who have to battle the long flight to and from Perth is much greater than on players staying in the same time zone and shorter flights of the east coast. This is something that administrators should take note of as it almost certainly is putting Perth teams at a persistent disadvantage. Chapters 8 and 9 explore the impact of the draft and trading. When done well, this has been the basis of some of the most successful teams of the last 20 years, notably Geelong and Hawthorn. So how do you do this well? It's not clear that it wasn't just luck that lead those teams to such success. The book uses a measure called Player Average Value (PAV) to assess the value of each player. Higher draft picks have a higher expected PAV based on history but a high draft pick is no guarantee that a plyer will even play a game. The book gives examples where trading to get a high draft pick was a train wreck and other examples where giving away a high draft pick was equally bad. Draft years also vary enormously. While there's no magic formula, drafting and trading are comething that each team needs to spend time on - and this is now widely recognised. The rest of the chapters range through topics such as: whether momentum is anything more than random variation; player traits that win a Brownlow Medal (blonde hair helps!); Hall of Fame (warning - if you live outside of Victoria this chapter will make you mad); team ratings across eras and even states; which state has the most devoted fans; and football finance. These chapters make anumber intersting observations but without the same clarity and impact of the key chapters highlighted above. Overall, a great read which I devoured in record time and have even been buying copies for friends who will enjoy it.
Click to expand...
Thanks for this, I'm going to order it... :)
 
Midfield no show since the bye

The numbers show the defence is still holding up reasonably well, 5th best in goals conceded per inside 50 conceded (%), however the sheer weight of the inside 50s (18th) has been telling. It's also clear that the lack of inside 50 entries has also been costly, the Swans ranking 16th, only ahead of the calamitous Carlton and the dour Dockers.

The tackle numbers also don't flatter the midfield group, with the Swans ranking last in tackling efficiency since Round 15.

All tables below are stats R15-19 (inclusive)

Table 1: Goals conceded per inside 50 conceded
Rank | Team | G conc/I50 conc (%)
\1st|PTA|16.94%
\2nd|WCE|17.75%
\3rd|GWS|18.71%
\4th|BRL|20.66%
\ 5th | SYD | 21.05%
\6th|RIC|21.37%
\7th|GCS|21.71%
\8th|HAW|21.98%
\ 9th | COL | 22.01%
\10th|FRE|23.45%
\11th|GEE|24.09%
\12th|ESS|24.55%
\13th|CAR|24.82%
\14th|STK|25.46%
\15th|MEL|25.85%
\16th|ADE|25.97%
\17th|NTH|27.17%
\18th|WBD|28.73%
\ Mean | Mean | 22.90%

Table 2: Inside 50s conceded
Rank | Team | Avg I50s conceded
\1st|ESS|44.80
\2nd|HAW|46.40
\3rd|RIC|46.80
\4th|MEL|47.20
\5th|PTA|48.40
\6th|NTH|50.80
\7th|ADE|51.60
\ 8th | COL | 51.80
\9th|WBD|53.60
\10th|BRL|54.20
\11th|STK|54.20
\12th|GEE|54.80
\13th|WCE|55.20
\14th|GWS|55.60
\15th|GCS|56.20
\16th|CAR|56.40
\17th|FRE|58.00
\ 18th | SYD | 60.80
\ Mean | Mean | 52.60

Table 3: Inside 50s
Rank | Team | Avg Inside 50s
\1st|ESS|61.40
\2nd|MEL|61.20
\3rd|RIC|60.20
\4th|PTA|57.20
\5th|ADE|56.20
\6th|HAW|55.00
\7th|NTH|54.80
\8th|GEE|54.20
\9th|STK|53.00
\10th|GWS|52.80
\ 11th | COL | 51.20
\12th|WBD|50.80
\13th|BRL|50.60
\14th|GCS|49.40
\15th|WCE|47.20
\ 16th | SYD | 45.60
\17th|CAR|43.60
\18th|FRE|42.40
\ Mean | Mean | 52.60

Table 4: Tackle Efficiency%
Rank | Team | TkEff%
\1st|GWS|67.92%
\2nd|WBD|66.67%
\3rd|ADE|66.53%
\4th|GCS|66.41%
\5th|PTA|66.01%
\6th|ESS|65.40%
\7th|MEL|65.00%
\8th|HAW|64.85%
\9th|GEE|64.19%
\10th|NTH|64.16%
\ 11th | COL | 64.02%
\12th|RIC|62.53%
\13th|WCE|62.50%
\14th|CAR|62.37%
\15th|BRL|62.17%
\16th|STK|60.61%
\17th|FRE|60.15%
\ 18th | SYD | 59.27%
\ Mean | Mean | 63.93%
 
grimlock said:
Midfield no show since the bye

The numbers show the defence is still holding up reasonably well, 5th best in goals conceded per inside 50 conceded (%), however the sheer weight of the inside 50s (18th) has been telling. It's also clear that the lack of inside 50 entries has also been costly, the Swans ranking 16th, only ahead of the calamitous Carlton and the dour Dockers.

The tackle numbers also don't flatter the midfield group, with the Swans ranking last in tackling efficiency since Round 15.

All tables below are stats R15-19 (inclusive)

Table 1: Goals conceded per inside 50 conceded
Rank | Team | G conc/I50 conc (%)
\1st|PTA|16.94%
\2nd|WCE|17.75%
\3rd|GWS|18.71%
\4th|BRL|20.66%
\ 5th | SYD | 21.05%
\6th|RIC|21.37%
\7th|GCS|21.71%
\8th|HAW|21.98%
\ 9th | COL | 22.01%
\10th|FRE|23.45%
\11th|GEE|24.09%
\12th|ESS|24.55%
\13th|CAR|24.82%
\14th|STK|25.46%
\15th|MEL|25.85%
\16th|ADE|25.97%
\17th|NTH|27.17%
\18th|WBD|28.73%
\ Mean | Mean | 22.90%

Table 2: Inside 50s conceded
Rank | Team | Avg I50s conceded
\1st|ESS|44.80
\2nd|HAW|46.40
\3rd|RIC|46.80
\4th|MEL|47.20
\5th|PTA|48.40
\6th|NTH|50.80
\7th|ADE|51.60
\ 8th | COL | 51.80
\9th|WBD|53.60
\10th|BRL|54.20
\11th|STK|54.20
\12th|GEE|54.80
\13th|WCE|55.20
\14th|GWS|55.60
\15th|GCS|56.20
\16th|CAR|56.40
\17th|FRE|58.00
\ 18th | SYD | 60.80
\ Mean | Mean | 52.60

Table 3: Inside 50s
Rank | Team | Avg Inside 50s
\1st|ESS|61.40
\2nd|MEL|61.20
\3rd|RIC|60.20
\4th|PTA|57.20
\5th|ADE|56.20
\6th|HAW|55.00
\7th|NTH|54.80
\8th|GEE|54.20
\9th|STK|53.00
\10th|GWS|52.80
\ 11th | COL | 51.20
\12th|WBD|50.80
\13th|BRL|50.60
\14th|GCS|49.40
\15th|WCE|47.20
\ 16th | SYD | 45.60
\17th|CAR|43.60
\18th|FRE|42.40
\ Mean | Mean | 52.60

Table 4: Tackle Efficiency%
Rank | Team | TkEff%
\1st|GWS|67.92%
\2nd|WBD|66.67%
\3rd|ADE|66.53%
\4th|GCS|66.41%
\5th|PTA|66.01%
\6th|ESS|65.40%
\7th|MEL|65.00%
\8th|HAW|64.85%
\9th|GEE|64.19%
\10th|NTH|64.16%
\ 11th | COL | 64.02%
\12th|RIC|62.53%
\13th|WCE|62.50%
\14th|CAR|62.37%
\15th|BRL|62.17%
\16th|STK|60.61%
\17th|FRE|60.15%
\ 18th | SYD | 59.27%
\ Mean | Mean | 63.93%
Click to expand...


How is tackling efficiency measured?

Is just completed tackles?
 

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Pointless stat for the week

Goals 2010-2018
Barry Hall (retired 2011) - 135
Sam Reid - 126
 
The King! said:
Smith?
Click to expand...
God damn it.

Yes Nick Smith, it was topical as he broke the record against Collingwood on the weekend. I am making the assumption he did not get a vote.
 
swansfan51 said:
Which player holds the record for the most VFL/AFL games in a career without a Brownlow vote? No Google!

If nobody gets it I will post a clue
Click to expand...
I reckon it would have to be defence, and I'm presuming it must be a Swan, so I'm thinking Reg...
 
swansfan51 said:
God damn it.

Yes Nick Smith, it was topical as he broke the record against Collingwood on the weekend. I am making the assumption he did not get a vote.
Click to expand...

I remember them mentioning it for his 200th]
Suspect he will retain it for a while yet
 
Kirkswan said:
I reckon it would have to be defence, and I'm presuming it must be a Swan, so I'm thinking Reg...
Click to expand...
Reginald has amassed 5 Brownlow votes!
 
swansfan51 said:
Reginald has amassed 5 Brownlow votes!
Click to expand...
Seriously? I thought he had one early on and nothing since... anyway I thought it was Smith too, but The King! got in first, so Reg was my next guess in case he was wrong. The commentators were talking about it a few weeks back, maybe in the Norths game...
 
Kirkswan said:
Seriously? I thought he had one early on and nothing since... anyway I thought it was Smith too, but The King! got in first, so Reg was my next guess in case he was wrong. The commentators were talking about it a few weeks back, maybe in the Norths game...
Click to expand...
Reg got 2 in his first game! But he was playing as a forward so that’s cheating
 
swansfan51 said:
Which player holds the record for the most VFL/AFL games in a career without a Brownlow vote? No Google!

If nobody gets it I will post a clue
Click to expand...

It was Jason Blake before Smith right?

That was my first guess but think he got one in his last season.
 
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