MVP Tommy Boyd - The Grand Final Enigma

[St 07]

Holy s**t we've got Tom Boyd!!

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Just wanted to compare Treloar/Boyd's deal.

Treloar is a jet, and is getting paid 750k per year. I'm not here to dispute the fact he's clearly been in about the best 20 midfielders in the competition this year.

But he'd a midfielder who isn't that tall, isn't that athletic, and isn't in the elite category for either contested possessions or raw kicking skill. He's above average in all of them, but not elite, and a type of player that he is isn't hard to find through the draft or trading methods, just to give an example of two players who have similar skillsets to him, Jack Steven was a pick 42, and Callan Ward was a pick 19. Both among the top 20 mids in the game, but because they're not truly elite in 2 or 3 categories, just above average in a large number, there's not a dearth of plays-a-similar-way-but-is-slightly-worse types of players, and you can find similar players in the draft at pretty much any point that are just as good.

Just to reiterate, Collingwood paid slightly more at the trade table and slightly less in a salary.

Boyd on the other hand, is the sheer definition of a scarce resource. You know we've been complaining about a undersized forward line? Boyd might not be playing that well and dropping marks, but how would an even shorter forward line go?

If we had never recruited Boyd in the first place, we would have have done something like this:

• Maybe be forced to retain somebody like Ayce Cordy on the list. That's what I mean by 200+cm players being a scarce resource - the ones that are slighlty worse are very terrible just because of the terrible talent pool for anybody over 200cm in Australia
• If we really wanted the structure and Cordy was that terrible, go out and overpay somebody like Vickery (yuck) or Casboult (yuck) from another club and pay 400k+ for the benefit. I'd rather go the extra 600k for the ex-number 1 pick who has a small percentage, could one day be the best key forward in the league, and although that's diminishing by every week that he doesn't take by the scruff of the neck, it's still a higher percentage than Vickery - and I'm willing to pay extra money for that low percentage.
• So either we have Vickery, for structure purposes, or we have no key forward at all on our list. Boyd might drop marks but I'd rather he be a marking target than a 188cm player, even if that 188cm player technically has better mitts.
• So what for the extra salary cap room? We're not losing players and even if we'd recruited say a Vickery to fix the "structural" issues of simply not having any tall forwards/2nd rucks, what were we going to do with that room? Recruit Levi Greenwood or Tom Lonergan for massive overs? I'd rather pay overs for the player who still has a remote chance of being the best key forward in the league, than pay overs for Vickery and Greenwood.

So he's worth $1 million because he's a scarce resource. When the alternative for a 200cm forward ruck is Cordy or Vickery, he's worth $1 million. When the alternative to utilise cap room is overpaying Greenwood, or Lonergan.

That's the thing though. $1 million might seem like overpaying because it's such a unique situation, unanimous number 1 selection key forwards just don't put themselves in the open market for the highest bidder 12 months into their career. As such, it's understandable, if flawed, to compare him to other $1 million earners, such as the players who have demonstrated they are the best in the league, but that's only because players negotiate contracts when they're established in the league. Early draftees might feel indebted to the club that drafted them, unwilling to explore other options or move interstate at a young age, and the negotiating power rests with the club, as such, players don't enter the highest earner ages until they have spend significant time int the league. If Christian Petracca walked out on Melbourne at the end of last year, say for whatever reason became a free agent, (say Melbourne voided his contract or something like that), despite never playing a game there would have been no doubt at least one club that would have offered him at least 800k per year, and that's for a midfielder, not a 200cm bloke who like I explained above is a scarce resource. And for a player who, whilst impressive playing his first games of his career, still has minimal impact upon actually winning games for his team, would get criticism for that contract as a result. But because Boyd is pretty much the only top youngster who has sold himself to the open market it's not a comparable situation to anyone so obviously there are flawed comparisons to similar earning players who negotiated in completely different circumstances.

This is not to say that he's ever be worth $1 million - that's not the point of the above argument. Because suggesting he'll be "worth" $1 million opens up the possibility that every club should aim to pay the players closes to the equivalent of their contribution to wins, but clearly that's not what happens in realty. Because of the "future" aspect with Boyd, and because some players are underpaid (like Matthew Boyd being on peanuts last year despite being at top 60 player in the league), leaving cap room for others to be overpaid (such as a scarce resource of 200cm key forwards who put themselves on the open market to the highest bidder. The $1 million we pay is simply his market worth at the time the league unanimously judged his talent to be at the time he was traded, and as such, if he doesn't live up to that price tag, the failure against his salary and the failure against the fact he was a number 1 draft pick is one and the same on the basis he was paid that much because he was a number 1 draft pick on talent.

 

[Mofra]

Boyd on the other hand, is the sheer definition of a scarce resource. You know we've been complaining about a undersized forward line? Boyd might not be playing that well and dropping marks, but how would an even shorter forward line go?

If we had never recruited Boyd in the first place, we would have have done something like this:

• Maybe be forced to retain somebody like Ayce Cordy on the list. That's what I mean by 200+cm players being a scarce resource - the ones that are slighlty worse are very terrible just because of the terrible talent pool for anybody over 200cm in Australia
• If we really wanted the structure and Cordy was that terrible, go out and overpay somebody like Vickery (yuck) or Casboult (yuck) from another club and pay 400k+ for the benefit. I'd rather go the extra 600k for the ex-number 1 pick who has a small percentage, could one day be the best key forward in the league, and although that's diminishing by every week that he doesn't take by the scruff of the neck, it's still a higher percentage than Vickery - and I'm willing to pay extra money for that low percentage.
• So either we have Vickery, for structure purposes, or we have no key forward at all on our list. Boyd might drop marks but I'd rather he be a marking target than a 188cm player, even if that 188cm player technically has better mitts.
• So what for the extra salary cap room? We're not losing players and even if we'd recruited say a Vickery to fix the "structural" issues of simply not having any tall forwards/2nd rucks, what were we going to do with that room? Recruit Levi Greenwood or Tom Lonergan for massive overs? I'd rather pay overs for the player who still has a remote chance of being the best key forward in the league, than pay overs for Vickery and Greenwood.

So he's worth $1 million because he's a scarce resource. When the alternative for a 200cm forward ruck is Cordy or Vickery, he's worth $1 million. When the alternative to utilise cap room is overpaying Greenwood, or Lonergan.

It was a unique scenario no doubt, but is Boyd such a scarce resource?
Peter Wright and Caleb Marchbank (a forward as a junior) were both in the draft we would have kept a top-10 pick for if we didn't trade for Tom Boyd.
GWS were not going to give us pick 4 but we would have had picks 6 & 7 and although hindsight isn't always helpful Wright (the player we wanted) would have slid to us.

In the same draft Waite was a FA - he may never have chosen us but tempting him with dollars - less than $1m pa - may have been an option so we had mature KPF talent while a junior KPF develops. Lowden and Ryder were traded, although both went back to SA.

Lachie Henderson was traded the year after - the kid we were very close to selecting instead of Jarrad Grant. Ditto Charlie Dixon - a genuine, mature KPF on a rumoured $750k pa. Ben McKay (who has played some decent VFL games) was available at our pick 11 that year had we not downgraded it.

Talls are most certainly available, even good ones, every year.
I'm glad the club had the balls to go out and get the highest rated junior for the past 10 years but the size of the deal and not getting anything back for Griff & pick 6 does raise questions on whether we traded well even given the unique circumstances of the time.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

It was a unique scenario no doubt, but is Boyd such a scarce resource?
Peter Wright and Caleb Marchbank (a forward as a junior) were both in the draft we would have kept a top-10 pick for if we didn't trade for Tom Boyd.
GWS were not going to give us pick 4 but we would have had picks 6 & 7 and although hindsight isn't always helpful Wright (the player we wanted) would have slid to us.

In the same draft Waite was a FA - he may never have chosen us but tempting him with dollars - less than $1m pa - may have been an option so we had mature KPF talent while a junior KPF develops. Lowden and Ryder were traded, although both went back to SA.

Lachie Henderson was traded the year after - the kid we were very close to selecting instead of Jarrad Grant. Ditto Charlie Dixon - a genuine, mature KPF on a rumoured $750k pa. Ben McKay (who has played some decent VFL games) was available at our pick 11 that year had we not downgraded it.

Talls are most certainly available, even good ones, every year.
I'm glad the club had the balls to go out and get the highest rated junior for the past 10 years but the size of the deal and not getting anything back for Griff & pick 6 does raise questions on whether we traded well even given the unique circumstances of the time.

I take your point but - Wright is an anomaly and, in any case, I believe, is less likely to have a better career than Boyd. He could have easily been, at the time was drafted, a John Butcher as a KPF drafted in a similar position in the draft.

Not all of those players you listed are true KPD, are 200cm tall, or can equally play ruck and forward. You're going too broad with "talls" rather than "structural ruck/forwards who are at least 198cm tall". I'd like to see Marchbank ruck 60% of a game or be a target that collects 3 defenders with him out of the goalsquare.

Henderson's a key defender naturally. Dixon plays a style that's similar to Boyd, but doesn't really ruck, and I hope that when Boyd's 25 years old he's playing significantly better than what Dixon is now. Waite's not even that good of a player short of a 6 week hot patch at the beginning of this year. All of them have flaws. Boyd didn't have any flaws, aside from: a) endurance and b) the element of unpredictability as you find with any teenager you draft.

Waite had a six week hot patch - and again I hope that Boyd plays better than Waite over an extended period of time. McKay has played some good VFL games - that's really clutching at straws, I'd wait to see if he plays at AFL level before judging him one way or another.

 

[Mofra]

I take your point but - Wright is an anomaly and, in any case, I believe, is less likely to have a better career than Boyd. He could have easily been, at the time was drafted, a John Butcher as a KPF drafted in a similar position in the draft.

Wright has shown more signs than Boyd to this point in time.
Boyd's had injury interrupting his development but the Boyd vs Wirght debate will rage for some time - and even then it will realistically Boyd vs Wright + Ahern + cap space.

Not all of those players you listed are true KPD, are 200cm tall, or can equally play ruck and forward. You're going too broad with "talls" rather than "structural ruck/forwards who are at least 198cm tall". I'd like to see Marchbank ruck 60% of a game or be a target that collects 3 defenders with him out of the goalsquare.

Wasn't Boyd traded as a genuine no 1 forward, not a ruck/forward?
TBH I want o see Boyd ruck much less, not more. I can't think of any genuine no 1 KPF in the competition who rucks. Tom Hawkins, Boyd's most common comparison, rucks approximately 0% of the time.

Henderson's a key defender naturally. Dixon plays a style that's similar to Boyd, but doesn't really ruck, and I hope that when Boyd's 25 years old he's playing significantly better than what Dixon is now. Waite's not even that good of a player short of a 6 week hot patch at the beginning of this year. All of them have flaws. Boyd didn't have any flaws, aside from: a) endurance and b) the element of unpredictability as you find with any teenager you draft.

Boyd's major flaw was cited as a lack of aggression - he was rated below his compatriots at the time, and this seems to be his biggest issue at AFL level.
My concern is that aggression is innate and can't be taught.
Boyd is odds-on to become 'useful' at AFL level but whether he develops to become anything more than that is still yet to be seen.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Wright has shown more signs than Boyd to this point in time.
Boyd's had injury interrupting his development but the Boyd vs Wirght debate will rage for some time - and even then it will realistically Boyd vs Wright + Ahern + cap space.

Fair enough, but don't overstate the value of cap space - it's really not that valuable at all as shown by the use of that cap space would be massively overpaying somebody like Greenwood when we were chasing him.

Wasn't Boyd traded as a genuine no 1 forward, not a ruck/forward?
TBH I want o see Boyd ruck much less, not more. I can't think of any genuine no 1 KPF in the competition who rucks. Tom Hawkins, Boyd's most common comparison, rucks approximately 0% of the time.

So do I, I want to see him play 100% forward. But the point being is that his ability to ruck makes him more valuable, should he have to do a Tippett and maybe one day become a 1st ruck. It makes him valuable by more flexibility with selection in that he can ruck anywhere between 0 and 50% of the game. I'd also say that Boyd's play style is just as similar to Dixon and Tippett as it is Hawkins.

Boyd's major flaw was cited as a lack of aggression - he was rated below his compatriots at the time, and this seems to be his biggest issue at AFL level.
My concern is that aggression is innate and can't be taught.
Boyd is odds-on to become 'useful' at AFL level but whether he develops to become anything more than that is still yet to be seen.

Sure, aggression was probably his biggest weakness, but it probably has a low material impact (aggression as an attribute is really not that important compared to endurance, marking ability or kicking accuracy) on him. Even if his aggression relative to the rest of the league is lower than his endurance relative to the rest of the league, it's probably endurance, not aggression, holding him back as a player moreso.

 

[Pannalstaroz]

Wright has played 2 good games, against Brisbane and St Kilda. I'm not sure that equates to "showing more". Time will tell, but he did literally nothing against us. Of course the rest of it is part of the discussion but I'm not sold on the boy just yet.

Interesting times on Friday night however. Selection will be fascinating.

 

[Bodicifer]

One day he will clunk them

 

[bresker]

IIn timely fashion someone's just bumped a thread about Brad Ottens on the main board.

Taken at pick 2 in the draft, considered disappointing for most of his career and was considered a dud trade by Geelong - hence the 'leave him alone all of yous' press conference by Bomber.

Didn't really come good until he was 27 (!) . Let's hope Tom doesn't take that long - although Ottens did an ACL along the way.

202cm. Big blokes take time, and T. Boyd is more ruckman sized than key forward.

 

[maddog37]

Wright has played 2 good games, against Brisbane and St Kilda. I'm not sure that equates to "showing more". Time will tell, but he did literally nothing against us. Of course the rest of it is part of the discussion but I'm not sold on the boy just yet.

Interesting times on Friday night however. Selection will be fascinating.

Wright is getting a huge push for rising star from the media to get some exposure for his club. I would never suggest the AFL is pushing an agenda on this but some people might......

 

[BrunswickDog]

Fwiw, my mail was that we would have taken jake lever at pick 6 if we didnt trade for toyd.

Dalrymple loved him. Would have been another good dal pick as well.

 

[immortalmike]

Wright has played 2 good games, against Brisbane and St Kilda. I'm not sure that equates to "showing more". Time will tell, but he did literally nothing against us. Of course the rest of it is part of the discussion but I'm not sold on the boy just yet.

Interesting times on Friday night however. Selection will be fascinating.

Not sold on Wright being number 1 will be an excellent 2nd banana though.

 

[Cadillac]

One thing that's crossed my mind about young Body is how he would be coping mentally away from the footy club. This is a kid who came into the AFL system being touted as the best junior prospect the game has seen in a decade. Dominated every game he ever played as a junior. And 2-3 years later is being labeled by Australia's leading media outlets as the biggest bust in the history of the game!.
With the papers taking pot shots at him (a 20 year old kid) with every oppurtunity that they get. Surely it's taken a toll on him mentally. And I wouldn't be surprised at all if it's contributed to his form at the moment. He just doesn't look confident at all. And it would honestly surprise me if he was truly enjoying his footy at the moment, and who can honestly blame him? It seems everyone outside of our footy club and his family want to see him fail. It's staggering. Even just imagine how his parents feel reading the dribble blokes like Mark Robinson and the parasite Damian Barrett write about him. If I was in Boyds situation I'd be clinically depressed. Money doesn't buy you happiness.

I just want to see this kid give a big **** you to everyone who's doubting him and tear a game apart. It's going to happen soon. The best thing we can do is just play him deep forward and just keep feeding him. Even a couple of cheapies to get him some confidence. As soon as he starts kicking goals the media will start going quiet. It's honestly all he needs to do.

 

[Reptilia]

He is a confidence player.. one game when he trully dominates and things go right for him.. it will all Click.

 

[TiAn_]

Wright has played 2 good games, against Brisbane and St Kilda. I'm not sure that equates to "showing more". Time will tell, but he did literally nothing against us. Of course the rest of it is part of the discussion but I'm not sold on the boy just yet.

Interesting times on Friday night however. Selection will be fascinating.

I didn't truly feel any anxiety about Boyd until Wright started turning it on this year. When he started clunking contested marks and banging through goals from 50m it made me tug at my collar a little.

ATM, Wright's (13 months younger) 5 best games are probably all better than anything Tom has produced in any given game (maybe the Hawks game from round 3 last year would sneak in). However, Wright has Tom Lynch occupying the best tall defender each week and that surely plays a part.

The rest of the year should be very interesting as he's clearly our only remaining true key forward. Could be the making of him.

 

[Boristown]

When Wright had a gun defender on him (Morris), he had 1 kick and didn't take a mark. That was worse than anything Boyd has put up.

 

[Pannalstaroz]

Fwiw, my mail was that we would have taken jake lever at pick 6 if we didnt trade for toyd.

Dalrymple loved him. Would have been another good dal pick as well.

Nah

 

[Ozil]

Dead set, Boyd has put together 20 games better than anything Wright has served up so far.

Would prefer our own fans didn't fall in line with the microwave media's line of thinking. Boyd is the better prospect and more proven player.

If he wasn't on good coin or at our club, people would acknowledge that.

 

[BrunswickDog]

Nah

Jake lever is a chb, tough, great leader and would have slotted into our back line a year ago.

Consider what we lack and what we are chasing now.

Nah

Considering how highly lever is rated now and what our chb propects were at the time, makes sense.

Dal knew what we lacked. Hes hurley just 6 years younger.

Plus, dogs were into toyd anyway, griffin just sped it up.

 

[BRWB]

Jake lever is a chb, tough, great leader and would have slotted into our back line a year ago.

Consider what we lack and what we are chasing now.

Considering how highly lever is rated now and what our chb propects were at the time, makes sense.

Dal knew what we lacked. Hes hurley just 6 years younger.

Plus, dogs were into toyd anyway, griffin just sped it up.

Mate have you spoken to Dal?

 

[Hard Ball Get]

If bigfooty is a cesspool of s**t talk, this thread is the epicenter.

 

[Some Idiot]

I have no idea where the "best prospect in the last 10-20 years" etc. years bullshit came from, but the only people I ever read that from were journalists like Robbo, not actual reliable scouts and recruiters.

Best key forward prospect in his draft class, nothing more.

 

[DogDays]

Dead set, Boyd has put together 20 games better than anything Wright has served up so far.

Would prefer our own fans didn't fall in line with the microwave media's line of thinking. Boyd is the better prospect and more proven player.

If he wasn't on good coin or at our club, people would acknowledge that.

- he would be somewhere else.



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Pannalstaroz]

Jake lever is a chb, tough, great leader and would have slotted into our back line a year ago.

Consider what we lack and what we are chasing now.

Considering how highly lever is rated now and what our chb propects were at the time, makes sense.

Dal knew what we lacked. Hes hurley just 6 years younger.

Plus, dogs were into toyd anyway, griffin just sped it up.

Dude... Come on.

 

[Metal]

Petracca looks like he just knows where to be and how to play. It's natural instinct. You can tell he is going to be one hell of a footballer because he seems to have that footy nous and intuition that you can't teach. I don't see that with Tom yet. What I see is a work horse who should grow into being a good footballer....but will there be that timelessness and feel for the game that makes him into a great one?