Top 10 draft picks are overrated

[PowerForGood]

Rookie Rookie. Players that didn't make the cut in the draft, and come back in the rookie draft or after reventuring into the state league.

Puopolo and Barlow are two such players that have proven themselves. but the list is pretty thin

Here's a list of rookie listed players over last 10-15 years - some gems amongst them.

2016: Jake Barrett (Brisbane)
2015: McDonald-Tipungwuti (Essendon), Tom Papley (Sydney), Josh Smith (Collingwood), Dan Houston (Port Adelaide), Hugh Greenwood (Adelaide)
2014: Jack Sinclair (St Kilda), Jayden Short, Jason Castagna (Richmond), Nic Newman (Sydney)
2013: Maverick Weller (St Kilda), Neville Jetta (Melbourne), Charlie Cameron (Adelaide-Brisbane), Anthony Miles (Richmond), Patrick Ambrose (Essendon), Jake Kelly (Adelaide)
2012: Dane Rampe, Jake Lloyd (Sydney), Zach Williams (GWS)
2011: Lee Spurr (Fremantle), Mark Blicavs (Geelong), Rory Laird (Adelaide)
2010: Luke Dahlhaus (Bulldogs), Ed Curnow (Carlton), Josh Jenkins (Adelaide), Tom Jonas (Port Adelaide), Jason Johannisen (Bulldogs), Jeremy McGovern (West Coast)
2009: Zach Tuohy (Carlton), Michael Barlow (Fremantle / Gold Coast)
2008: Liam Picken (Bulldogs), Sam Jacobs (Adelaide), Luke Bruest (Hawthorn), Matt Suckling (Hawthorn)
2007: Shane Mumford (Geelong/Sydney), Pearce Hanley (Brisbane)
2006: Jarrod Harbrow (Bulldogs), Tom Lonergan (Geelong), Nick Smith (Sydney), Sharrod Wellingham (Collingwood)
2005: Matt Priddis (West Coast), Kieren Jack (Sydney)
2004: Danyle Pearce (Port Adelaide / Fremantle), Dale Morris (Bulldogs), Josh Gibson (North Melb / Hawthorn)

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Top 10 picks can be overrated, but Top 3 picks are what you would really want....it's just always depending on any specific draft year.

I think some clubs, mine included, understand that if you're not going to be able to hit that very early part of the draft(picks 1-5), then you may as well trade your pick for a ready-made and known quantity, especially within draft years where the talent isn't rated so highly.

If your club can also pick the eyes out of a draft and select players later, it alway helps too.

 

[Stevi_Tigers]

Jack graham likes this

 

[juss]

I reckon they are pretty important to nail. It may not be essential, but its certainly a big help and the best utilisation of drafting. Do Hawthorn 3peat without Hodge, Franklin, Roughead, Lewis?
No chance.
Do Richmond win it without Cotchin and Martin?
No chance.
Going back to Geelong days, they were a little different because a number of key players were F/S but Id still argue that without nailing Selwood and Bartel they wouldn't have won 3.
West Coast: Judd
Dogs: Bontempelli
Pies: Pendlebury
Saints didnt win but got close: Nick Riewoldt, Goddard (elite as a Saint)
Swans? Not sure of their list makeup, but they may be the exception to the rule.

What is the trend there?
A teams best players generally come from their best picks, at least in the last 10 years or so.

So Im going to say yes, nailing at least SOME of your top 10 picks gives you the star players required to win a flag.

 

[Furn2]

The thing you have to consider with draft picks and their value is that you can only do one of 2 things with them. You either use them on a kid or you trade them, usually for a player. You cant sell them or swap them for a new training facility.

When people say they are overrated its in that context they are talking. No one is suggesting you pass on pick 4 because there's a fair chance you'll just get a Tambling or Morton anyway. However, when a high pick is used in trade its far more often assumed that the pick will produce the next Buddy, Selwood or Martin rather than the next Dowler, Gumbleton or Bradley which is more the more likely outcome.

So when you look at Richmond or Hawthorn etc and say they had X amount of gun players from high picks you have to consider how many picks it took to get those players and then consider whether trading a high pick is the better option because you can only trade them or use them and i think the simple maths says that if you can trade a top 10 pick or more a Mitchell, Treloar or Beams then thats the smart play.