Prediction Top 4 and The Rollercoaster dogs or The Bevo Curse

[Optimistic Dog]

The rollercoaster of being dog's supporter. Before the season started I was confident of a top 4 after 2 games (especially how we were belted by the saints) it was looking more like bottom 4. This follows last season where the only time we looked like playing finals was at 5.45 pm on the Sunday of the last game. In 2021 there was no way we were going to miss top 4 and managed to lose the last 3 games to finish 5th only to make the GF.

So who knows what the final 13 games will bring. On current form we would start favourites in all but 2 games being the pies and the cats away in the last game. If we won 11 and lost 2 that gives us 18 wins and certain top 4 maybe even top 2 finish.

 

[X_box_X]

This rollercoaster was memorable.

TOP FOUR LOOKING LIKELY




TOP FOUR EXTREMELY UNLIKELY





The twists and turns of eventually getting there.

 

[X_box_X]

I didn't realise Hawthorn lost their last eight matches that season, falling from 5th to 15th.

 

[TiAn_]

This is why Bev is so polarising. We’ve been a roller coaster ride for 6-7 years, from individual games to blocks of weeks to whole seasons. It’s already happened this year and no doubt there’s a few more thrills and scares in store for us before season’s end.

Games to come:

@ Suns - 13th
v Cats (Marvel) - 7th
v Power (Marvel) - 3rd
@ Kangaroos (Marvel) - 17th
v Dockers (Marvel) - 10th
v Magpies (Marvel) - 1st
@ Swans - 12th
@ Bombers (Marvel) - 9th
v Giants (Ballarat) - 15th
v Tigers (Marvel) - 14th
@ Hawks - 16th
v Eagles (Marvel) - 18th
@ Cats - 7th

5 of those look like they should be wins if we are a serious threat (subject to what the Tigs do from here). Lose more than 1 of those and it’ll raise some questions. Otherwise, that leaves 8 games against sides that are roughly around us to give us a fair bit of a guide on where our ceiling is this year.

Every game is important, but in the race for finals the next 8 might be determinative. A dangerous Suns in Darwin followed by potential 8 point games against the Power, Cats, Dockers, Magpies, Swans and Bombers (with the Roos sandwiched in there) and all of those games at Marvel, except for Swans.

Most games are on our home decks. It’s a pretty good run home, hopefully we make a good fist of it.

 

[X_box_X]

This is why Bev is so polarising. We’ve been a roller coaster ride for 6-7 years, from individual games to blocks of weeks to whole seasons. It’s already happened this year and no doubt there’s a few more thrills and scares in store for us before season’s end.

Games to come:

@ Suns - 13th
v Cats (Marvel) - 7th
v Power (Marvel) - 3rd
@ Kangaroos (Marvel) - 17th
v Dockers (Marvel) - 10th
v Magpies (Marvel) - 1st
@ Swans - 12th
@ Bombers (Marvel) - 9th
v Giants (Ballarat) - 15th
v Tigers (Marvel) - 14th
@ Hawks - 16th
v Eagles (Marvel) - 18th
@ Cats - 7th

5 of those look like they should be wins if we are a serious threat (subject to what the Tigs do from here). Lose more than 1 of those and it’ll raise some questions. Otherwise, that leaves 8 games against sides that are roughly around us to give us a fair bit of a guide on where our ceiling is this year.

Every game is important, but in the race for finals the next 8 might be determinative. A dangerous Suns in Darwin followed by potential 8 point games against the Power, Cats, Dockers, Magpies, Swans and Bombers (with the Roos sandwiched in there.

Most games are on our home decks. It’s a pretty good run home, hopefully we make a good fist of it.

As I mentioned yesterday, on current forum, we're probably going to start favourite in 10 of our remaining 13 games.

I'd most definitely lock in a 10-3 finish to end the H&A season. I'd be surprised if we didn't finish top four with a 17-6 record.

 

[Golden_6]

I've mentioned before but we've only played 4 games at Marvel (3 home games at Marvel) in our first 11 rounds. 8 of our final 12 rounds are at Marvel along with an additional game at Mars. We only leave the state to travel to Sydney once and the Hawks in Tassie after we visit Darwin this week so we'll only be spending 4 hours on a plane in totality for the rest of the season.

We're in an excellent spot right now. We're playing reasonably unspectacular football and banking the wins we need to. There's significant upside from this group in the forward half of the ground and we seem to have sorted out our defensive issues for the time being. Winning 2 of the next 3 games really sets us up to put ourselves in a good position to make top 4 for the rest of the year.

 

[TiAn_]

As I mentioned yesterday, on current forum, we're probably going to start favourite in 10 of our remaining 13 games.

I'd most definitely lock in a 10-3 finish to end the H&A season. I'd be surprised if we didn't finish top four with a 17-6 record.

I’d be surprised if we didn’t win one of the games you’re expecting us to lose and didn’t lose 2-3 of the games you’re expecting us to win. Buckle up!

 

[X_box_X]

I’d be surprised if we didn’t win one of the games you’re expecting us to lose and didn’t lose 2-3 of the games you’re expecting us to win. Buckle up!

Yeah, no doubt.

We've broken some long standing droughts under Bevo so I'm hoping we break another one in 11 days from now.

1987 was the last time we won seven in a row. Win our next two (including one of them in a match we will start slight underdogs) and that's another drought Bevo ends for us.

FWIW, some of the other records / droughts we have broken under Bevo include:

Premiership, 2x 100 point victories in a season, player kicking more than eight goals in a match.

We've never made finals five years in a row so hopefully that's another record we achieve this season.

 

[Scott Tracy]

This spring of five games was always gonna tell us where we were at and potentially setting us up for the season. Carlton, Crows, Gold Coast, Cats, Port. All those clubs are contending at this point in time.
We're 2-0 so we've started well, reckon Port is the most dangerous of the lot. They play well at Marvel

 

[Charlie Bucket]

Win this week and Marvel will be rockin next Saturday night.

Could be the biggest/most important home and away game we’ve played in a few years.

 

[X_box_X]

I've gone through every match and given wins to each team that I believe we be favourite. There are several games which are close to 50/50 so this is unlikely to be entirely accurate.

In fact, if anyone can be bothered, I'd encourage you to do the same. Don't predict the team you think will win - predict your results based on which team you believe will be favourite.

The criteria I've used is if these teams were to play each other this week, which team would be favourite?

I have also predicted my margins based on what I expect the lines to be. This is important. As you can see, Adelaide sneaks into my final eight ahead of Essendon on percentage.

 

[MYOB]

I've gone through every match and given wins to each team that I believe we be favourite. There are several games which are close to 50/50 so this is unlikely to be entirely accurate.

In fact, if anyone can be bothered, I'd encourage you to do the same. Don't predict the team you think will win - predict your results based on which team you believe will be favourite.

The criteria I've used is if these teams were to play each other this week, which team would be favourite?

I have also predicted my margins based on what I expect the lines to be. This is important. As you can see, Adelaide sneaks into my final eight ahead of Essendon on percentage.

View attachment 1694630

So playing Port in the "neutral" gather round will come back to bite us on the arse

 

[Optimistic Dog]

I've gone through every match and given wins to each team that I believe we be favourite. There are several games which are close to 50/50 so this is unlikely to be entirely accurate.

In fact, if anyone can be bothered, I'd encourage you to do the same. Don't predict the team you think will win - predict your results based on which team you believe will be favourite.

The criteria I've used is if these teams were to play each other this week, which team would be favourite?

I have also predicted my margins based on what I expect the lines to be. This is important. As you can see, Adelaide sneaks into my final eight ahead of Essendon on percentage.

View attachment 1694630

I know you did this by tipping likely favourites but there is no way the pies lose only one game. Hopefully it is us that beat them and that puts in the top 4.

 

[X_box_X]

So playing Port in the "neutral" gather round will come back to bite us on the arse

Negative.

We'd have played Port at AO regardless of whether it occurred in Gather Round or not.

 

[MYOB]

Negative.

We'd have played Port at AO regardless of whether it occurred in Gather Round or not.

You can not say that with any certainty.

 

[X_box_X]

You can not say that with any certainty.

Yes I can.

There are six teams we were scheduled to play twice. One of them was Port. Are you therefore saying we could have played Port twice in Victoria?

 

[_Mike_]

We could see them winning anywhere from 14-17 games thereabouts. 16+ should put them in the top 4

 

[MYOB]

Yes I can.

There are six teams we were scheduled to play twice. One of them was Port. Are you therefore saying we could have played Port twice in Victoria?

No, we would have only played 5 teams twice if there wasn't a gather round.

The fact is
2 teams get 12 home games and 11 away games
10 teams get 11 home games, 11 away games and 1 neutral game.
2 teams get 11 home games and 12 away games.

 

[X_box_X]

No, we would have only played 5 teams twice if there wasn't a gather round.

The fact is
2 teams get 12 home games and 11 away games
10 teams get 11 home games, 11 away games and 1 neutral game.
2 teams get 11 home games and 12 away games.

I see what you're saying...

So if there was no Gather Round, do we know for sure we would have only had 23 rounds? Is it possible we'd have moved to 24 rounds regardless?

 

[MYOB]

I see what you're saying...

So if there was no Gather Round, do we know for sure we would have only had 23 rounds? Is it possible we'd have moved to 24 rounds regardless?

We only went to 24 rounds because of gather round. No way would there have been a 24th round without gather round.

 

[X_box_X]

We only went to 24 rounds because of gather round. No way would there have been a 24th round without gather round.

Fair enough.

You raise a very good point. I apologise.

Remove Gather Round completely and I guess that means we only play them once this season under the roof.

 

[MYOB]

Fair enough.

You raise a very good point. I apologise.

Remove Gather Round completely and I guess that means we only play them once this season under the roof.

No worries.

When gather round was announced, I said what's the bet we draw either Adelaide or Port.

The only fair way to do it was for Crows and Power to play each other, as a neutral game, that is, not a home game for either team, but a 50/50 split of the crowd. It would have been the biggest game ever played in SA, with both lot of fans getting the opportunity to attend. It would have then mean't that every much was neutral.

 

[Doggy]

No worries.

When gather round was announced, I said what's the bet we draw either Adelaide or Port.

The only fair way to do it was for Crows and Power to play each other, as a neutral game, that is, not a home game for either team, but a 50/50 split of the crowd. It would have been the biggest game ever played in SA, with both lot of fans getting the opportunity to attend. It would have then mean't that every much was neutral.

Yeah but we all know that wouldnt work for either team .. and the AFL for commercial reasons

 

[dogwatch]

I've gone through every match and given wins to each team that I believe we be favourite. There are several games which are close to 50/50 so this is unlikely to be entirely accurate.

In fact, if anyone can be bothered, I'd encourage you to do the same. Don't predict the team you think will win - predict your results based on which team you believe will be favourite.

The criteria I've used is if these teams were to play each other this week, which team would be favourite?

I have also predicted my margins based on what I expect the lines to be. This is important. As you can see, Adelaide sneaks into my final eight ahead of Essendon on percentage.

View attachment 1694630

Since 1970 when 22 games a season became the norm no side has won 17 games and failed to make the top 4. Most years it has been enough to be top 2. This year of course we play 23 games so I guess there is a very slightly increased chance we could miss top 4 despite winning 17. However I'd be putting quids on a top 4 finish if we won 17.

Only one side - Essendon in 2000 - has gone through the season losing only one H&A game (Chris Grant says hi! ).
Good as they are I don't think Collingwood is anywhere near the level of dominance that Essendon had that year.

It's a long season, form fluctuates and injuries happen. Expect some unexpected results.

 

[Arkangel]

Only one side - Essendon in 2000 - has gone through the season losing only one H&A game (Chris Grant says hi! ).

Geelong in 2008 as well.