Top 4/Top 8 thread

[footy75]

I think people have just built it up in their head that Bulldogs lose/Brisbane win = Brisbane top four. Again an example of just how few people understand a basic concept like percentage, which can prove so vital in the closing round.

The Lions still have a lot of work to do, simply winning doesn't guarantee them anything. A margin of around 20 points in a low scoring game gets them in range (i.e. a final score of 70-50) and 4-5 goals gets very close if there's a decent score on the board (assuming a winning score of 100 to Brisbane, West Coast would need to be kept to 73 or fewer points).

It will be funny when the Lions win, but not by enough and the Bulldogs supporters who thought their season was down the drain still finish fourth in spite of themselves. In fact, I think I'll predict that to happen.

if west coast could beat the wooden spooners at home I may agree with u

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Im pretty sure everyone understands this just can’t be bothered mentioning it plus there is an assumption that Brisbane are going to thrash the Eagles.

I think you'd be surprised. From some of the comments I see, it seems that people don't really understand that you can win and have your percentage drop, hence they think that any Brisbane win will be enough in this case.

You see it throughout the year in threads like this, where people are predicting the final few rounds and saying one team in the top four has a two game lead and 8% gap between a team below them. The 8% is basically irrelevant, because a team in the top four (which will probably have a percentage of 125+) will almost certainly lose that 8% by having consecutive losses (while its rival is likely to increase its percentage and make up the difference by having two wins).

Which is exactly what's happened with the Bulldogs. Their significant percentage gap over their top four rivals from a few weeks ago has evaporated.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

if west coast could beat the wooden spooners at home I may agree with u

Well, that's the thing about this season. Brisbane's lost three of its last six to teams that are ranging between unlikely/no chance to make the eight. It's pretty amazing that a big home win against the Pies can catapult a team into being 'in red hot form'. But that's how 2021 has gone, especially in the second half.

 

[footy75]

Well, that's the thing about this season. Brisbane's lost three of its last six to teams that are ranging between unlikely/no chance to make the eight. It's pretty amazing that a big home win against the Pies can catapult a team into being 'in red hot form'. But that's how 2021 has gone, especially in the second half.

yeah I understand. but west coast are rubbish and even more so at the Gabba.

 

[raskolnikov]

I am going to feel bad for Dogs fans if they fall out of the top 4..

I'm not. Not the ones on here who have been unbearably arrogant all year anyway.

 

[Halftimehero]

I think people have just built it up in their head that Bulldogs lose/Brisbane win = Brisbane top four. Again an example of just how few people understand a basic concept like percentage, which can prove so vital in the closing round.

The Lions still have a lot of work to do, simply winning doesn't guarantee them anything. A margin of around 20 points in a low scoring game gets them in range (i.e. a final score of 70-50) and 4-5 goals gets very close if there's a decent score on the board (assuming a winning score of 100 to Brisbane, West Coast would need to be kept to 73 or fewer points).

It will be funny when the Lions win, but not by enough and the Bulldogs supporters who thought their season was down the drain still finish fourth in spite of themselves. In fact, I think I'll predict that to happen.

Brisbane will belt them

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Brisbane will belt them

We'll see. Stranger things have happened this year. In fact I'd argue stranger things are happening every few weeks.

 

[Halftimehero]

We'll see. Stranger things have happened this year. In fact I'd argue stranger things are happening every few weeks.

Eagles are cooked and have a heap out, it’s hard to see Brisbane not scoring at least 100, they’ve done it 3 out of the last 4 matches, West Coast’s last 3 scores have been 64, 63 and 45 with much stronger teams.

 

[Nunez]

We'll see. Stranger things have happened this year. In fact I'd argue stranger things are happening every few weeks.

Okay.

 

[cactuscall]

I think you'd be surprised. From some of the comments I see, it seems that people don't really understand that you can win and have your percentage drop, hence they think that any Brisbane win will be enough in this case.

You see it throughout the year in threads like this, where people are predicting the final few rounds and saying one team in the top four has a two game lead and 8% gap between a team below them. The 8% is basically irrelevant, because a team in the top four (which will probably have a percentage of 125+) will almost certainly lose that 8% by having consecutive losses (while its rival is likely to increase its percentage and make up the difference by having two wins).

Which is exactly what's happened with the Bulldogs. Their significant percentage gap over their top four rivals from a few weeks ago has evaporated.

 

[CarnTheScray]

I'm not. Not the ones on here who have been unbearably arrogant all year anyway.

I too hate other teams because of anonymous online users /s.

Can't speak for other dogs supporters on here but personally I've given it back when other supporters like your clubs own dish it to me even for no reason. Copped it from Essendon Carlton Richmond St Kilda West Coast North Geelong Melbourne fans all year but if I bite back I am the arrogant one lol.

 

[Roobs321]

Bulldogs slipping from 1st to 5th* in the last three weeks is such a waste of a strong worthy season. Feel for them, but can still pull it off I guess.

Eagles in 2019 finishing 5th is rough, but this feels a lot worse (pandemic fixturing aside). Demons went from 1st to 5th in the last few rounds of 2004, but their top 4 competition was much sterner and their slip understandable. Crows in 2016 were also a bit stiff, only lost to finalists that season and were equal top going into final round.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Bulldogs slipping from 1st to 5th* in the last three weeks is such a waste of a strong worthy season. Feel for them, but can still pull it off I guess.

will be a juicy thrashing of the bombers in first week of finals at least!

 

[Roobs321]

will be a juicy thrashing of the bombers in first week of finals at least!

I'll even sacrifice an unlikely Eagles to an almighty belting if it rejigs them. Port 2014 EF vibes definitely. God knows why the Bombers want to make the 8 only for another trash EF exit, let us take the hospital pass

Of course the Brisbane-Weagles situation prevents this eventuality for multiple reasons.

 

[CarnTheScray]

Juddernaut08 deleting his post as usual.

Would appreciate if you didn't stalk me in every thread.