Top 4

[rizzo]

1 St Kilda 19 14 0 5 2099 1600 131.19 56 

2 Brisbane Lions 20 14 0 6 2147 1641 130.83 56 

3 Port Adelaide 19 14 0 5 2074 1632 127.08 56 

4 Geelong 20 14 0 6 1878 1574 119.31 56

Go the Pussies

 

[LongBomb]

So good!

I reckon we are a fair chance of staying there as well.

 

[gocats]

that would be a great finish.

us vs saints at the G.

what a ripper.

 

[Robin Hood]

So good!

I reckon we are a fair chance of staying there as well.

From memory Melbourne have Carlton and St Kilda? Dont quote me on that tho.

 

[Unwritten_Law]

Carlton and WC in Perth.

While not ideal, we could probably still make top 4 if we lost to Adelaide.

 

[Robin Hood]

Carlton and WC in Perth.

While not ideal, we could probably still make top 4 if we lost to Adelaide.

Yeh they are probably 50% chance to go 1-1, 25% to win both and 25% to win neither.

Geelong is probably 50% to win both, 25% to win one, 25% to win none.

So, I tip Geelong still to make the finals even if both teams come away with the same amount of wins just because Geelong have teams which they should come away with at least one ten goal win.

 

[Tweak Talent]

We are a very good chance to stay in the top 4. If results turn out our way we could even finish 3rd.
Would we be better off finishing 4th or 3rd?

 

[Ricketts]

Would we be better off finishing 4th or 3rd?

3rd.


if we lose qual final, then we play a semi in melb against either syd,freo,eagles most likely.

if we are 4th and lose, then we play a semi in melb against either ess or melb which is the harder option

 

[Fall Out Boy]

Would we be better off finishing 4th or 3rd?

Impossible to tell until the other spots are determined.

Melbourne and Fremantle will finish above Essendon and North, but i know i'd much rather play the first two.

 

[jim boy]

Tis a pity that a top 2 spot is out of reach, even though it will only be by percentage.


It's going to be a matter of luck and %. Brizzie and the saints have very similar % and chances are they'll end up on the same points. If Brizzie get 2nd spot, fourth might be quite alright as it's likely that the preliminary final we ould play in would be in Melbourne, regardless of where the opposition come from.

That's assuming that even if we lose the first match, that we win the semi-final. But really, if we are going to be a contender, we should beat any team in the 5-8 range(including Essendon), as long as it is in Vic.

Just out of interest, here is the ladder with the first five rounds not included.

[/font][/b]
[b][font=Arial]Geelong  1482 1080 137.22% 52
Port Adelaide  1584 1238 127.95% 44
Brisbane Lions  1640 1262 129.95% 40
St Kilda  1673 1343 124.57% 40
Melbourne  1461 1248 117.07% 40
West Coast Eagles  1330 1296 102.62% 36
Essendon  1591 1480 107.50% 32
Sydney Swans  1247 1271 98.11% 32
Kangaroos  1481 1324 111.86% 28
Collingwood  1349 1336 100.97% 28
Fremantle Dockers  1298 1293 100.39% 28
Adelaide Crows  1328 1369 97.01% 24
Carlton  1181 1638 72.10% 24
Western Bulldogs  1231 1677 73.40% 12
Richmond  1184 1661 71.28% 12
Hawthorn  1059 1603 66.06% 8[/b]
[b][/font][/b]
[b][font=Arial]

 

[dodgyhodgy]

With Port Adelaide to play Collingwood and Adelaide in the remaining two rounds, I would say that Port will win both of those matches and finish on top again.
Might not be too bad to play Port in Adelaide in the first week of the finals, especially if we can manage to get over the top of the Crows this week, considering we should have beat Port earlier in the year it would be a huge match and quite possibly a winnable match.


Isn't it great to not only be talking about playing in finals but to be talking about a top 4 double chance. I am the first to admit that after round two I was only expecting the boys to win a handful of games, how happy am I that I was wrong!!!

 

[tdarian]

(Melb plays) Carlton and WC in Perth.

While not ideal, we could probably still make top 4 if we lost to Adelaide.

Remember the dees are less than 2% behind us, so if we lose to the crows by a large margin, its most likely bye bye top 4. a likely scenario is:

dees thrash blues
crows beat cats

WC beat dees
cats beat hawks

the key is percentage - we basically need to lose by a little and/or thrash the hawks to get top 4.

even if we win both, dees can steal top 4 by winning their last 2 by greater margins than we do.

yet another scenario would be if saints beat the lions next week - we will guarantee top 4 if we win our last 2.

 

[dodgyhodgy]

dees thrash blues

This is not a given, remember how Carlton have gotten up after big losses this year and Melbourne don't play at OO to often.

 

[Seb]

This is not a given, remember how Carlton have gotten up after big losses this year and Melbourne don't play at OO to often.

Carlton will get up.

Melbourne are in a slump, Carlton love Optus Oval and generally speaking, rebound after a thrashing.

 

[Cj's Cats]

there was a thing in the paper yesterday and some one predected the lader and they said that we could finish 4th and power would finish 1st then we would play them up there, that wouldn't be that bad cos we should have won there last time.

 

[LongBomb]

I for one wouldn't mindtaking on Port in the first week of the finals.

Their finals form (esp first week) is well documented.

 

[SpRiGgZy]

i was over the moon when i found out sydney beat the dees on saturday coz i knew if they lost we would knock them out of the 4! I am nearly 100% sure that we will stay there aswell. Im pretty sure we will win the last 2 and im tipping the saints to beat brissy on the weekend and then if we win then that's 3rd spot for us! yes im thinking a bit ahead but we are going fantastically at the moment and i can see us going all the way....was very shocked to see brian taylor on the sunday footy show say that yesterday! oh well they finally believe in us

 

[Dinga_19]

Collingwood will beat Port this week. Calton will beat Dees this week. This sets us up. Mathimatically speaking we can finish 1st is things go our way e.g Port lose to the crows in the last round (it happened earlier in the year) Lions lose to the Roos (Roos had a big win away from home a couple of weeks back if u remember). Never say die. Would love to play Saints though anywhere in Melbourne.

If we play the Saints in the first week of the finals and they finish above us where do we play? MCG or TD?

 

[Sammy D]

MCG, Telstra Dome holds no finals this year