Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 3

[Rob R]

slippery slope that one

especially if you apply the same concepts to china and its neighbours

Xi is already being a bastard to his peaceful neighbours with water.

Chinese dams and the Mekong drought | Lowy Institute

The environmental impact of China’s dam building upstream is undeniable. The silence from some quarters is surprising.

www.lowyinstitute.org

China’s dams exacerbated extreme drought in lower Mekong: Study

Critics say system of dams that China built deprived millions of people from Southeast Asia of their livelihood.

www.aljazeera.com

Villagers in Laos and Thailand Suffer as China Opens the Floodgates on Mekong River Dams - Thailand

News and Press Release in English on Thailand about Agriculture, Food and Nutrition and Flood; published on 3 Jul 2019 by RFA

reliefweb.int

However unless the water is being used to power hydro in Crimea (doubtful) then the Ukrainians should maintain supply rather than lower themselves to Putin and Xis level.

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[Crankyhawk]

Xi is already being a bastard to his peaceful neighbours with water.

Chinese dams and the Mekong drought | Lowy Institute

The environmental impact of China’s dam building upstream is undeniable. The silence from some quarters is surprising.

www.lowyinstitute.org

China’s dams exacerbated extreme drought in lower Mekong: Study

Critics say system of dams that China built deprived millions of people from Southeast Asia of their livelihood.

www.aljazeera.com

Villagers in Laos and Thailand Suffer as China Opens the Floodgates on Mekong River Dams - Thailand

News and Press Release in English on Thailand about Agriculture, Food and Nutrition and Flood; published on 3 Jul 2019 by RFA

reliefweb.int

However unless the water is being used to power hydro in Crimea (doubtful) then the Ukrainians should maintain supply rather than lower themselves to Putin and Xis level.

Sent from my SM-A125F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Why should the Ukrainians maintain supply without commercial or other contracted reasons?

 

[Mobbs]

From SOTA,

Darya Trepova is taken to the Basmanny Court, where today she will be given a measure of restraint. The investigation had previously stated that it would petition for the placement of the girl in a pre-trial detention center.

Trepova has already been charged with a terrorist act committed by an organized group and resulting in the deliberate infliction of death on a person, as well as illegal carrying of explosive devices, committed by an organized group (clause “b” part 3 of article 205, part 4 of article 222.1 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation) .

 

[Mobbs]

Again from SOTA, claims of injuries sustained:

[emoji779]️Daria Trepova has been arrested for two months. She will stay in the pre-trial detention center until at least June 2, a Sota correspondent reports from the courtroom.

Daria grimaced in pain and covered her ears when the bailiffs screamed. She also said that she did not hear the judge well. Presumably, the girl's hearing was damaged by the explosion, she could have received a shell shock.

 

[faible]

No idea why you're being obtuse about this.

Because PR obtusely supports the Russian version of events despite protesting otherwise, sometimes the mask slips though;

the Ukraine

Putin won’t be around forever but his replacement will be worse

He refers to Ukraine as 'the' Ukraine despite having it explained on at least three separate occasions in this thread why it's incorrect. <insert his argument about Austro-Hungarian empire grandfather and how it justifies this>

He consistently says any replacement for Putin will be worse, so we should appease Putin.

He consistently demands a higher standard of conduct from Ukraine despite Ukrainian territory being occupied by an invading force.

 

[Zidane98]

I don't buy a Putin replacement being worse. How can they be? Putin attacks Ukraine at will. Actually believes that Russia owns the country and actually believes that Ukranian nationality does not exist. Launches massive cruise missile attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine for no reason at all. Stations military equipment inside Zaporizhia NPP using it as a shield while trying to disconnect it from the Ukranian grid and connect it to the Russian grid. Attacks and then forcibly removes children from Ukraine to Russia. Has no issue with his soldiers routinely raping / torturing / murdering Ukranian civilians. Approved BUK missile system for rebels to use despite being in full knowledge that the area was a busy European-Asia air route with hundreds of flights a day ending up in the murder of 298 innocents on MH17.

What really needs to happen as well as Putin being removed is all his USSR era dinosaur mates also go. They all are totally deluded and live in a reality where they believe the Russian empire will rise again. They are all bitter about the collapse of the USSR which was inevitable.

 

[jatz14]

I’m not sure on what basis Russia will collapse

The nation is forecast to have good GDP growth, the sanctions aren’t working, china has commenced the program to produce their own silicon chips to mitigate reliance on the west.

Putin won’t be around forever but his replacement will be worse and by ruling with an iron fist, no break up will happen but rather see more of the same.

How the IMF naively parroted Putin’s fake statistics–and botched its economic forecast for Russia

The IMF simply does not have the data it needs to independently calculate Russia’s GDP by any accepted method.

fortune.com

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[Power Raid]

Because PR obtusely supports the Russian version of events despite protesting otherwise, sometimes the mask slips though;





He refers to Ukraine as 'the' Ukraine despite having it explained on at least three separate occasions in this thread why it's incorrect. <insert his argument about Austro-Hungarian empire grandfather and how it justifies this>

He consistently says any replacement for Putin will be worse, so we should appease Putin.

He consistently demands a higher standard of conduct from Ukraine despite Ukrainian territory being occupied by an invading force.

That’s the interpretation in your own head.

Your view comes across as a tearful cheerleader, similar to the leave Brittany meme.


In reality I take a much stronger stance against Russia, Putin and bullies.

1) bullies are tough when they can isolate the weak.

The west had no choice but to stand back allow the Ukraine to experience pain. Otherwise their help would come at a cost and risk being blamed.

But now that’s over the west should be bombing Russian logistics on Russian soil to avoid mass deaths of Ukrainian civilians

The west should be doing this in a unified response


2) my family has lived under the oppression of Russians and witnessed the rapes, the murder and brutality including one being put into a concentration camp, as they lost a prisoner and needed to make up the numbers. My grandfather was 14, on the way to the shop, put into a convict March of to camp.

3) US leaders are saying crimea and Donbas will remain Russian as a negotiation is the the end to this war.

I’d be bombing St Petersburg’s and Moscow’s wealthiest suburbs and raise the homes to the ground and take their children for a freedom swap of Ukrainian children.

So there is a big difference between what I want and what those with the power want.



So please grow up and accept this is a thread discussion and sometime people will share different views, including negativity towards Brittany.

 

[1990crow]

I don't buy a Putin replacement being worse. How can they be? Putin attacks Ukraine at will. Actually believes that Russia owns the country and actually believes that Ukranian nationality does not exist. Launches massive cruise missile attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine for no reason at all. Stations military equipment inside Zaporizhia NPP using it as a shield while trying to disconnect it from the Ukranian grid and connect it to the Russian grid. Attacks and then forcibly removes children from Ukraine to Russia. Has no issue with his soldiers routinely raping / torturing / murdering Ukranian civilians. Approved BUK missile system for rebels to use despite being in full knowledge that the area was a busy European-Asia air route with hundreds of flights a day ending up in the murder of 298 innocents on MH17.

What really needs to happen as well as Putin being removed is all his USSR era dinosaur mates also go. They all are totally deluded and live in a reality where they believe the Russian empire will rise again. They are all bitter about the collapse of the USSR which was inevitable.

This is easier said than done. It would take the people of Russia standing up and removing them in a revolutionary takeover.

Just can't see that happening.

 

[jatz14]

I’m not sure on what basis Russia will collapse

The nation is forecast to have good GDP growth, the sanctions aren’t working, china has commenced the program to produce their own silicon chips to mitigate reliance on the west.

Putin won’t be around forever but his replacement will be worse and by ruling with an iron fist, no break up will happen but rather see more of the same.

This is massively naive.

IMF is predicting 0.3% growth, but based on the assumption data from Russia is true.

Russia's central bank is predicting contraction.

There is a question wether Russia is actually getting real cash for all it's oil, as some of it's new customers are basically insolvent, eg Venezuela.

Russia is hurting, and hurting bad, and making massive efforts to hide this fact.



On moto g(6) plus using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Power Raid]

I don't buy a Putin replacement being worse. How can they be? Putin attacks Ukraine at will. Actually believes that Russia owns the country and actually believes that Ukranian nationality does not exist. Launches massive cruise missile attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine for no reason at all. Stations military equipment inside Zaporizhia NPP using it as a shield while trying to disconnect it from the Ukranian grid and connect it to the Russian grid. Attacks and then forcibly removes children from Ukraine to Russia. Has no issue with his soldiers routinely raping / torturing / murdering Ukranian civilians. Approved BUK missile system for rebels to use despite being in full knowledge that the area was a busy European-Asia air route with hundreds of flights a day ending up in the murder of 298 innocents on MH17.

What really needs to happen as well as Putin being removed is all his USSR era dinosaur mates also go. They all are totally deluded and live in a reality where they believe the Russian empire will rise again. They are all bitter about the collapse of the USSR which was inevitable.

Who do you think Putin will appoint? A nice guy or one that will protect his interests including his kids.

If someone stands up against him and seizes power by force, will he be nice?

I see the next guy as a Stalin


The only way to prevent this is to bankrupt the state which requires not only sanctions but destroying supply lines (internet, shipping, aviation, rail and freight).

Only once the leadership can no longer buy stooges, can the system change.

 

[jatz14]

Because there is a difference between the people of crimea and the war machine of Russia.

If you want to win hearts and minds to retake through diplomacy, you’ll need the support of the people.

No, there isn't, because you can apply the same logic to any part of Russia.

Should the people of random Russian town suffer, because of the actions of the Moscow elite? Ukraine has a moral obligation, and needs to win the hearts and minds of Russians to end this war.

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[jatz14]

I am not against giving support to Ukraine, just insist the Euros accept the responsibility to sort out their own back yard.
Yes, I'm influenced by the EU/EC use of trade barriers to punish those who dont bend to their view of the world.

IF there is a problem in our backyard, we are involved.

It's a global world, hadn't you noticed, our backyard is everywhere.

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[Power Raid]

This is massively naive.

IMF is predicting 0.3% growth, but based on the assumption data from Russia is true.

Russia's central bank is predicting contraction.

There is a question wether Russia is actually getting real cash for all it's oil, as some of it's new customers are basically insolvent, eg Venezuela.

Russia is hurting, and hurting bad, and making massive efforts to hide this fact.



On moto g(6) plus using BigFooty.com mobile app

You only have to look at shopping centres in Russia to see they are well stocked

The sanctions are being undermined by big name brands and the oil continues to flow.


We have a small window to bankrupt Russia before the change in leader. Miss this and we will get a 55 year old tyrant with 30 years to live.

 

[Power Raid]

Xi is already being a bastard to his peaceful neighbours with water.

Chinese dams and the Mekong drought | Lowy Institute

The environmental impact of China’s dam building upstream is undeniable. The silence from some quarters is surprising.

www.lowyinstitute.org

China’s dams exacerbated extreme drought in lower Mekong: Study

Critics say system of dams that China built deprived millions of people from Southeast Asia of their livelihood.

www.aljazeera.com

Villagers in Laos and Thailand Suffer as China Opens the Floodgates on Mekong River Dams - Thailand

News and Press Release in English on Thailand about Agriculture, Food and Nutrition and Flood; published on 3 Jul 2019 by RFA

reliefweb.int

However unless the water is being used to power hydro in Crimea (doubtful) then the Ukrainians should maintain supply rather than lower themselves to Putin and Xis level.

Sent from my SM-A125F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Yep

If we want to claim the moral high ground, we will need to consider the bigger picture.

We act like dogs against the people of crimea and we lose the war against china’s dog acts.

We need to be civilised if we want the rule of law, property rights and the world order to succeed

 

[faible]

Your view comes across as a tearful cheerleader, similar to the leave Brittany meme.

Ah huh, sounds a lot like you're the tearful one here having to suddenly argue all the things you're saying that are pro-Russian positions aren't actually pro-Russian because <reasons>.

The rest of your post means little when you ultimately keep falling back on pro-Russian talking points within a day or two.

 

[Visions]

3) US leaders are saying crimea and Donbas will remain Russian as a negotiation is the the end to this war.

Really? Name 3.

As all l can find is those that aren’t nutjobs are optimistic.

 

[Power Raid]

No, there isn't, because you can apply the same logic to any part of Russia.

Should the people of random Russian town suffer, because of the actions of the Moscow elite? Ukraine has a moral obligation, and needs to win the hearts and minds of Russians to end this war.

On moto g(6) plus using BigFooty.com mobile app

Your missing the point

The Ukraine can only take crimea by force or by the support of the people of crimea.

The US is saying taking crimea and the Donbas by force is not possible.

Thus hearts and minds is the only tool available.

So the choice is hearts and minds or give up on the territory

 

[Power Raid]

Ah huh, sounds a lot like you're the tearful one here having to suddenly argue all the things you're saying that are pro-Russian positions aren't actually pro-Russian because <reasons>.

The rest of your post means little when you ultimately keep falling back on pro-Russian talking points within a day or two.

No

You wrongly interpreted my position. Further I’m not even sure why you would even attempt to interpret my motivations, rather than continue an open discussion, other than cheerleading

My position is based on what leaders have stated which may be different to your position AND as outlined different to my personal position

 

[Power Raid]

Really? Name 3.

As all l can find is those that aren’t nutjobs are optimistic.

General Petraeus
I didn’t catch the name of the Admiral

 

[faible]

No

You wrongly interpreted my position. Further I’m not even sure why you would even attempt to interpret my motivations, rather than continue an open discussion, other than cheerleading

My position is based on what leaders have stated which may be different to your position AND as outlined different to my personal position

Well, for a start you've clearly stated on multiple occasions that you'll refer to it as 'the Ukraine' despite on at least three separate occasions having it explained to you why it is both inappropriate and incorrect. So sorry if I don't simply believe your motivations when you manage to very consistently fall back on pro-Russian language and talking points despite knowing they're wrong.

As Chief said, you're being deliberately obtuse about a lot of these things, then when called on it you've given a big spiel about family history which should - if anything - make being deliberately obtuse about it all so much worse.

 

[Cap]

Ukraine Victory Unlikely This Year, Milley Says

“I'm not saying it can't be done. I'm just saying it's a very difficult task,” says top U.S. general.

www.defenseone.com

I'm not saying it can't be done. I'm just saying it's a very difficult task,”

Hmm, that doesn't sound like it can't be done.

There are also plenty of experts pointing out that Ukraine can retake Crimea without a direct seige on the area. Actually most believe it's Crimea first, then Donbas. Ben Hodges is one of the main guys who explain it well.

You'd almost have to ignored every western analysts output about this war to have missed this.

 

[jatz14]

not at all. I don't see oil and gas going out of fashion in the next 5 minutes and I don't see the west curtailing russia's shipping lanes and trade. Thus in the medium term russia's economy will be fine.



I also believe there are very few places in the world where one can get copper to support the renewable economy. South America will get increasingly harder for china, africa requires navigating the quad, philippines and indo will be out of bounds and that leaves iran, pakistan, afghanistan and russia.

Russia doesn't have the man power or the capabilities to mine these assets without china's help. Where this will lead to is a copper boom and mass immigration. Then security forces, followed by a democratic election. This will either happen or russia will try and use force only to be met with force.

This is a 20 year view and thus not only has a very different context but a different time frame.

Not only do you seem to be taking Russian data at face value, you are even putting a more positive spin on it than they are.

The reason that the IMF is predicting 0.3% growth and the central bank 2+% contraction is, Putin cannot hide real info from his own central bank, and the CB cannot deal in complete fantasy because that has real world consequences.

So I think 2% contraction is the rosiest somewhat realistic scenario they can come up with, and should be considered a ceiling. Growth will be, at best -2%.

Even Putin has made comment that things aren't rosey.

On moto g(6) plus using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[jatz14]

difficult if we (rest of world) leave the euros to it, they will slowly get run over by russia.

No, they wouldn't.

At a point even Europe would decide on a war footing, and at that point, it's not remotely close. Much bigger population, much bigger economy, much more productive, much better educated and trained soldiers.



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[Power Raid]

Not only do you seem to be taking Russian data at face value, you are even putting a more positive spin on it than they are.

The reason that the IMF is predicting 0.3% growth and the central bank 2+% contraction is, Putin cannot hide real info from his own central bank, and the CB cannot deal in complete fantasy because that has real world consequences.

So I think 2% contraction is the rosiest somewhat realistic scenario they can come up with, and should be considered a ceiling. Growth will be, at best -2%.

Even Putin has made comment that things aren't rosey.

On moto g(6) plus using BigFooty.com mobile app

What are your figures? and please put them in context of war and a sensible regime change.

I look forward to your position