Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[Frank Grimes]

Since Trump took office this year, 4 or 5 more countries are referring to the USA as an aggressor!

I'd say more of a vulture.

 

[Deliverance]

Am I right in thinking that many of these rare earths are in Russian occupied territory? Therefore Ukraine might be open to this arrangement with the US to get some of that land back? And if a profit share agreement then a way of increasing income to help rebuild?

They'd need to rebuild before mining. They would even have the power or water to create mines after Russia's damage.

 

[Mobbs]

Meanwhile a ****tonne of mines around the Kemerovo district of Siberia are closing down or suffering worker strikes following lack of salary payments edging into many months. The mining co's blame sanctions. They've laid off a massive number of workers and nobody's getting paid.

 

[CD Xbow]

I got a giggle out of this.

Trump says Putin would keep his word on a Ukraine peace deal

President claims presence of US workers in Ukraine would deter Russian aggression after talks with Keir Starmer

www.theguardian.com

One liar assuring us another liar will keep his word. Does anyone really believe this?

 

[Jello_B]

Russia have to give up something ffs. If Ukraine lose territory and have no change to their international security apparatus what’s the point. They may as well fight to the last man standing and hope like hell Europe keep supporting them until Russia gives in.
Russia may be in a relatively strong position but what aren’t in that strong a position.

 

[wannabejack]

Troops First or Deal First? Trump Plays Catch-22 With Starmer on Ukraine

Though some European countries say they are open to deploying troops, President Trump insists a deal should be in place before deciding on boots on the ground.

www.kyivpost.com

The UK and France have voiced openness to deploying some 30,000 peacekeeping troops to Ukraine in future peace settlements. Though Berlin has ruled out troop deployments, German defense officials said the idea might be considered once a framework is in place, according to Reuters.

US President Donald Trump said Wednesday that he is open to European peacekeepers in Ukraine. Russia has repeatedly opposed the idea.

Turkey, a NATO member with the second-largest army in NATO after the US, is reportedly open to deploying troops to Ukraine if Ankara is involved in all relevant discussions and preparations, according to Bloomberg.

From another article
According to Ukrainian officials, the pace and frequency of Russian assaults across the Donbas region has abated somewhat. During the month of February, Russians captured about 120 square kilometers (46 square miles) of Ukrainian territory, compared to 350 square kilometers (135 square miles) in January, the independent battle data tracking group DeepState reported.

 

[CD Xbow]

Russia have to give up something ffs. If Ukraine lose territory and have no change to their international security apparatus what’s the point. They may as well fight to the last man standing and hope like hell Europe keep supporting them until Russia gives in.
Russia may be in a relatively strong position but what aren’t in that strong a position.

Russia think they won't need to give up anything. They will try to BS their way to get it all with lots of bluster and threats. So I don't think they will compromise. President Z on the other hand, won't be conned into any deal that doesn't have significant and worthwhile security guarantees. Trump exhorting mineral wealth from them does not provide any sort of security at all. The Trump supporting commentators are saying this guarantees Ukraine security. I think it guarantees Ukrainian security as much as the Minsk agreement. I also think Russia is in a weaker position than most people think and needs a pause.

Added - President Z saying he won't accept a ceasefire without security guarantee.

No ceasefire without security guarantees for Ukraine, says Zelenskyy – video

The Ukrainian president said a deal would have to be discussed with the US and European allies

www.theguardian.com

I can't see a ceasefire happening quickly.

 

[Andre]

Russia have to give up something ffs. If Ukraine lose territory and have no change to their international security apparatus what’s the point. They may as well fight to the last man standing and hope like hell Europe keep supporting them until Russia gives in.
Russia may be in a relatively strong position but what aren’t in that strong a position.

Russia is in a weak position. Their old Soviet stockpiles are running low, the currency reserves the same. The economy is in a shit state and their already dire demographic issues are only worse whilst fighting age men are at war rather than fathering kids at home. Europe doesn't need to fund Ukraine forever. Keep their economy afloat this year, and donate more equipment (including their 'must have for themselves' stuff) and Russia will hit that wall that's rapidly approaching.

 

[Jello_B]

Russia is in a weak position. Their old Soviet stockpiles are running low, the currency reserves the same. The economy is in a shit state and their already dire demographic issues are only worse whilst fighting age men are at war rather than fathering kids at home. Europe doesn't need to fund Ukraine forever. Keep their economy afloat this year, and donate more equipment (including their 'must have for themselves' stuff) and Russia will hit that wall that's rapidly approaching.

Yer but we have heard about this rapidly approaching wall for two years. Russian culture is used to poverty, and they would prefer to live tough rather than be subservient to the west. If Putin digs in on the presence of security forces being in Ukraine this is going to get worse before it gets better.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Yer but we have heard about this rapidly approaching wall for two years. Russian culture is used to poverty, and they would prefer to live tough rather than be subservient to the west. If Putin digs in on the presence of security forces being in Ukraine this is going to get worse before it gets better.

For Russia yes.

 

[Jello_B]

For Russia yes.

For both Ukraine and Russia. Last i checked there are innocent people dying on both sides. That will escalate now imo.

 

[Werewolf]

Yer but we have heard about this rapidly approaching wall for two years. Russian culture is used to poverty, and they would prefer to live tough rather than be subservient to the west. If Putin digs in on the presence of security forces being in Ukraine this is going to get worse before it gets better.

Also the public displays of captured NATO equipment has "proven" to many Russian people that they're under attack from the west, which increases their motivation to fight.

Obviously they're not under attack, but Russians are generally paranoid and susceptible to propaganda (we all are to some extent)

 

[Visions]

I think it gets US boots on the ground.
Putin gets to keep land.
No NATO for Ukraine.
US presence in Ukraine to oversee extraction of minerals and provide security deterrent to Russia. I didn’t think Russia would agree to that, maybe they are getting something in return, like removal of sanctions.

Alternatively it could be US gets access to minerals, US keeps funding and supplying Ukraine to defend itself, and war continues.

I think people are confusing the two different things going on at the moment. The mineral rights deal is totally different and doesn't correlate with the actual US - Russian negotiations on ending the war, which in itself is a separate thing.

I was bewildered at first that Zelensky would even contemplate the mineral deal with the US, until I realised he could agree to it but still reject the so called peace deal. Zelensky is playing this smart. By agreeing to a mineral rights deal he keeps the US on side, continues to get military equipment and is able to fight on (Trump even said that). As a lot of the rare earths are in the current occupied areas, if the peace deal ends up not favouring Ukraine and they reject it, then Trump wont be getting anything out of it anyhow.

 

[Visions]

Lyin' Lavrov says Russia will not permit European peacekeepers in Ukraine. Lavrov earlier said there would be no talk of territorial concessions to Ukraine. So no NATO, no Euopean peacekeepers and no return of land. The barbarians are probably keeping the kiddies too. Russia want it all, there will be no concession by them. So without proper security guarantees for Ukraine I can't see Ukraine accepting any deal.

http://[URL='https://www.reuters.co...peacekeepers-ukraine-2025-02-26/[/URL[/COLOR]

]

More Lyin' Lavrov, he suffered a hissy fit in a meeting in Malta and did the usual Russian response of threatening escalation. https://www.afr.com/world/europe/bl...n-ukraine-at-meeting-in-malta-20241206-p5kwfx

Not only that, but Lavrov is insinuating that Ukraine will have to give up more territory within Ukraine in any negotiations.



The negotiations between Russia and the US are going to fail. Even Krasnov is coming around to that fact even though his version of stopping the war in 24 hours is like the 3 day SMO. But Russia got what they wanted from all this. The US bringing them in from the cold and treating Putin as an equal.

 

[Visions]

Zelensky all of a sudden in the good books. Even was called brave by Krasnov.



Remember when the press were hounding Biden about being senile....

 

[Visions]

This is a huge deal on the battlefield. Russian glide bombs were a big issue for Ukrainian defences where they didn't have an answer for them and allowed Russia to bomb with impunity.

Seems that has changed recently and they are becoming less effective with up to 16 glide bombs now needed to hit the one intended target.

 

[Jello_B]

Also the public displays of captured NATO equipment has "proven" to many Russian people that they're under attack from the west, which increases their motivation to fight.

Obviously they're not under attack, but Russians are generally paranoid and susceptible to propaganda (we all are to some extent)

They are getting hit daily with bombs now. From a civilian perspective they are under attack.

 

[wannabejack]

Ukraine targets high-value russian targets, military and industrial plants. Targets include oil refineries, storage facilities and airbases used for attacks against Ukraine.
russia targets also include Ukrainian civilians.

In russia civilians being attacked is a perspective.
In Ukraine civilians being attacked is a reality.

 

[sdfc]

Ukraine targets high-value russian targets, military and industrial plants. Targets include oil refineries, storage facilities and airbases used for attacks against Ukraine.
russia targets also include Ukrainian civilians.

In russia civilians being attacked is a perspective.
In Ukraine civilians being attacked is a reality.

Which is why the war needs to be wound up. The longer it goes the more Ukrainians die.

 

[Smeg Head]

Which is why 'Russia' needs to be wound up. The longer it exists the more humans world wide die.

EFA

 

[Andre]

Yer but we have heard about this rapidly approaching wall for two years. Russian culture is used to poverty, and they would prefer to live tough rather than be subservient to the west. If Putin digs in on the presence of security forces being in Ukraine this is going to get worse before it gets better.

They may be able to suffer economically, but no amount of society ability to suffer makes tanks and IFV appear out of thin air. They are already down to using donkey's on the front line for supply drops. When it's the Ukrainians with the armour advantage they'll be the one's forced to retreat. It's in the West's grasp. They just have to not fear taking the victory so close at hand.

 

[sdfc]

EFA

I don't give a fk about Russia.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

They may be able to suffer economically, but no amount of society ability to suffer makes tanks and IFV appear out of thin air. They are already down to using donkey's on the front line for supply drops. When it's the Ukrainians with the armour advantage they'll be the one's forced to retreat. It's in the West's grasp. They just have to not fear taking the victory so close at hand.

Historically, they've never been particularly great attackers.

Solid defenders, in the depraved rope-a-dope don't-GAF-about-our-losses style, absorbing the best hits of the likes of Napoleon and Hitler, both of whom made critical under-estimates of how difficult it would be to take the attack to Russian soil/mud/ice.

 

[sdfc]

They may be able to suffer economically, but no amount of society ability to suffer makes tanks and IFV appear out of thin air. They are already down to using donkey's on the front line for supply drops. When it's the Ukrainians with the armour advantage they'll be the one's forced to retreat. It's in the West's grasp. They just have to not fear taking the victory so close at hand.

So what odds do you put on this succession of Ukrainian victories to kick Russia out?

 

[Saint]

So what odds do you put on this succession of Ukrainian victories to kick Russia out?

People in the west, not fighting for their existence, measure these things in days or months.

If you're fighting for your life and existence and giving up all your wealth if you surrender, at what point are you willing to surrender? Resistance fighting is usually measured in years.

Afghanistan kicked out Russia in about 10 years. Eastern Europe took about 30. Ukraine might be able to do it faster. Might be longer.