Review What’s Going Wrong?

[RookiePick]

Voss is a Massive spud as a coach.

I think it's much rarer for exceptional players to make good coaches than average players.

 

[JezMez]

I don’t agree with that but fair enough. I think if the window is as tight as you think it is, eg the list has two seasons or so left, you’re wasting at least half a season implementing the gameplan.

Sack Simmo today, bring in Voss/Pyke/whoever, this season is basically a write off as they transition into the new style. Would need to hit everything perfect for them to win enough games whilst learning on the job to finish in a good ladder position, and by then you’re hoping the game style is up and running for September. Impossibly huge ask I think, to turn a 3-3 team into a top four contender whilst asking them to pivot styles on the job.

Over the offseason you’d say it all gets implemented well and they’re ready to roll for Round 1. So you’re banking on a fresh style being enough to kick this group into a premiership next year, then we’re aged out of contention it would seem.

Massive gamble to me that I can’t really agree with.

It's not a gamble when you have little to lose.

Do you ever see when coaches get sacked, usually the next week they win? The weight gets lifted and they free up and play naturally? This isn't a bottom 4 list. This is a mature list of intelligent footballers. I doubt these guys would be teaching them a Clarkson style gameplan either.

If you're you're one of those people who thinks; "Well we have 5 winnable games, can be 8 and 3, get Yeo and Shuey back, but just got to hang on and find a way to win intil they get back, then we make the 8 and have a tilt..."

Delusional. Our players aren't buying in. We have been worked out. The way we play - we need to finish top 2. I can't see that happening.

We are done.


Note: I would be more that happy (ecstatic actually) to eat my words if we can turn it around. I will even cyber-blow you if that happens. Just can't see it happening.

 

[JezMez]

Voss is a Massive spud as a coach.

I think it's much rarer for exceptional players to make good coaches than average players.

Let's wait and see because i think there's a good chance he will get a gig in the next few seasons.

 

[BrotherDodge]

I don't think we should consider sacking Simmo yet. But man, the players really are doing a good impression of a side that's tuned him out.

He deserves at least the rest of the year, but any more floggings like that and it's fair to ask if something is fundamentally rotten with his regime. Buckley is a dead man walking, and he was just Dom Sheed away from winning a flag and the Pies have outperformed us since...

 

[JezMez]

The other guy I rated as a coach who I felt was coaching well - Guy McKenna. He's been out of the system so wouldn't consider him but for a "failed" coach, I though he was pretty good.

 

[JezMez]

I don't think we should consider sacking Simmo yet. But man, the players really are doing a good impression of a side that's tuned him out.

He deserves at least the rest of the year, but any more floggings like that and it's fair to ask if something is fundamentally rotten with his regime. Buckley is a dead man walking, but he was just Dom Sheed away from winning a flag and the Pies have outperformed us since...

I don't think it's rotten - it's just a complicated game plan that has a used by date with the same group. To execute it you have to be perfect. Our guys just look jaded. And then the coralling tactic - over time it seems to condition players into being soft footballers.

 

[HoneyBadger35]

It's not a gamble when you have little to lose.

Do you ever see when coaches get sacked, usually the next week they win? The weight gets lifted and they free up and play naturally? This isn't a bottom 4 list. This is a mature list of intelligent footballers. I doubt these guys would be teaching them a Clarkson style gameplan either.

If you're you're one of those people who thinks; "Well we have 5 winnable games, can be 8 and 3, get Yeo and Shuey back, but just got to hang on and find a way to win intil they get back, then we make the 8 and have a tilt..."

Delusional. Our players aren't buying in. We have been worked out. The way we play - we need to finish top 2. I can't see that happening.

We are done.


Note: I would be more that happy (ecstatic actually) to eat my words if we can turn it around. I will even cyber-blow you if that happens. Just can't see it happening.

We can have a chat without resorting to the "delusional" stuff cheers.

It seems you're basing a lot of this off history, given we "don't have a crystal ball". Get an experienced coach in to give this list a crack at a flag.

So let's have a look at the Premiership winning coaches.

2020: Hardwick - first term
2019: Hardwick - first term
2018: Simpson - first term
2017: Hardwick - first term
2016: Beveridge - first term
2015: Clarkson - first term
2014: Clarkson- first term
2013: Clarkson - first term
2012: Longmire - first term
2011: Scott - first term
2010: Malthouse - third term (had coached flags before)
2009: Thompson - first term
2008: Clarkson - first term
2007: Thompson - first term
2006: Worsfold - first term
2005: Roos - first term
2004: Williams - first term
2003: Matthews - second term (had coached flags before)
2002: Matthews - second term (had coached flags before)
2001: Matthews - second term (had coached flags before)
2000: Sheedy - first term
1999: Pagan - first term
1998: Blight - second term

18 of the past 23 premierships have been won by coaches in their first senior coaching gig.
Four of the past 23 premierships have been won by coaches not in their first senior coaching gig, but with a flag in their previous role.
One of the past 23 premierships has been won by a coach in their second coaching gig, with no premierships on their resume already.

It's a massive gamble, the key thing we disagree with is the "there's nothing to lose" factor. To me there's plenty to lose. Even if there wasn't, judging from history the answer is not "get a coach with experience". There's just no evidence that a Voss/Buckley/Pyke/McKenna type is what fires teams to flags. Coaches tend to wash out of head coaching gigs for a reason.

 

[JezMez]

We can have a chat without resorting to the "delusional" stuff cheers.

It seems you're basing a lot of this off history, given we "don't have a crystal ball". Get an experienced coach in to give this list a crack at a flag.

So let's have a look at the Premiership winning coaches.

2020: Hardwick - first term
2019: Hardwick - first term
2018: Simpson - first term
2017: Hardwick - first term
2016: Beveridge - first term
2015: Clarkson - first term
2014: Clarkson- first term
2013: Clarkson - first term
2012: Longmire - first term
2011: Scott - first term
2010: Malthouse - third term (had coached flags before)
2009: Thompson - first term
2008: Clarkson - first term
2007: Thompson - first term
2006: Worsfold - first term
2005: Roos - first term
2004: Williams - first term
2003: Matthews - second term (had coached flags before)
2002: Matthews - second term (had coached flags before)
2001: Matthews - second term (had coached flags before)
2000: Sheedy - first term
1999: Pagan - first term
1998: Blight - second term

18 of the past 23 premierships have been won by coaches in their first senior coaching gig.
Four of the past 23 premierships have been won by coaches not in their first senior coaching gig, but with a flag in their previous role.
One of the past 23 premierships has been won by a coach in their second coaching gig, with no premierships on their resume already.

It's a massive gamble, the key thing we disagree with is the "there's nothing to lose" factor. To me there's plenty to lose. Even if there wasn't, judging from history the answer is not "get a coach with experience". There's just no evidence that a Voss/Buckley/Pyke/McKenna type is what fires teams to flags. Coaches tend to wash out of head coaching gigs for a reason.

Here's the problem with your stats;

Very few coaches who don't win a flag, get a second gig. So out of all those years - there's a very rarely a non-winning flag coach in a second gig. We tend to assume coaches who don't win a flag as failures and don't give them a second chance. So essentially there's not enough data. Blight, Lyon, Ratten. I can't think of any others and to be fair, the vast majority of failed coaches probably aren't up to it. I'm saying I think Pyke and Voss might be exceptions.

Can you explain what you mean when you say, "To me there's plenty to lose"?

 

[HoneyBadger35]

I don't think we should consider sacking Simmo yet. But man, the players really are doing a good impression of a side that's tuned him out.

He deserves at least the rest of the year, but any more floggings like that and it's fair to ask if something is fundamentally rotten with his regime. Buckley is a dead man walking, and he was just Dom Sheed away from winning a flag and the Pies have outperformed us since...

And the Pies have what now?

2019: Pies 15-7, one finals win. Eagles 15-7, one finals win. Two meetings head to head, Eagles won at the G by 22 and lost at home by one.
2020: Pies 9-1-7, one finals win. Eagles 12-5, no finals wins. Two meetings head to head, Eagles won at home by 66, lost a final by one.
2021: Pies 1-5, Eagles 3-3. One meeting head to head, Eagles won by 27.

So all up we have
Pies: 25 wins, 19 losses, one draw. Two finals wins.
Eagles: 30 wins, 12 losses. One finals win.

Eagles lead the H2H series 3-2 in that span. Two Pies wins by a point. Three Eagles wins by 22, 66, 27.

We can be dissatisfied with how we're going but the Pies have in no universe outperformed us.

 

[Coasters7]

We're the We$t Coa$t Eagle$$$ - we should not be struggling to poach quality coaches.
We need to start throwing our weight around as a destination club - and THE destination club outside of Melbourne.

Admittedly the new club song doesn't help at all though...

It’s hard though for a number of reasons. No one wants to move to Perth (or stay for long ala SMitch) and would rather a cushy Melbourne job, so we are limited to people with a strong connection to the club or Simmo.

Then on top of that we can’t even offset that disadvantage with an advantage of our own as a rich club because they cap it all in the name of “fairness”. Absolutely laughable given the issues we face due to location. No one can do anything about where we live, but at least let us spend our money to lure some quality people across. More “quirks” of this wonderful competition.

 

[JezMez]

And the Pies have what now?

2019: Pies 15-7, one finals win. Eagles 15-7, one finals win. Two meetings head to head, Eagles won at the G by 22 and lost at home by one.
2020: Pies 9-1-7, one finals win. Eagles 12-5, no finals wins. Two meetings head to head, Eagles won at home by 66, lost a final by one.
2021: Pies 1-5, Eagles 3-3. One meeting head to head, Eagles won by 27.

So all up we have
Pies: 25 wins, 19 losses, one draw. Two finals wins.
Eagles: 30 wins, 12 losses. One finals win.

Eagles lead the H2H series 3-2 in that span. Two Pies wins by a point. Three Eagles wins by 22, 66, 27.

We can be dissatisfied with how we're going but the Pies have in no universe outperformed us.

You're proving a point that is irrelevant.

Buckley came within a kick of winning a flag. The general consensus is he's in trouble.

That's football. It doesn't mean he can't coach, or can't have success somewhere else. The message is no longer working, so it's best for both parties to move on.

 

[HoneyBadger35]

Here's the problem with your stats;

Very few coaches who don't win a flag, get a second gig. So out of all those years - there's a very rarely a non-winning flag coach in a second gig. We tend to assume coaches who don't win a flag as failures and don't give them a second chance. So essentially there's not enough data.

Can you explain what you mean when you say, "To me there's plenty to lose"?

Nobody has entrusted a dog with a head coaching gig either, so there's not enough data to suggest that a dog couldn't guide this group to a flag. Can we use historical performance (as you have), or can we not? There tends to be a reason coaches don't get another gig. It's because all the evidence suggests that a first term coach is the way to go.

As for what I mean when I think there's plenty to lose:

I mean a chance at finals, a chance at a flag, a chance at continuing to enjoy the level of recent success envied by all clubs but Richmond.

You think it's over. I don't. If a Premiership is the be all and end all of football, I think we have everything to lose. Ultimately, I don't think we'll see eye to eye on this, but that's why I don't think sacking Simmo and installing Michael Voss or Guy McKenna is the way the club will find their next flag.

 

[BartBart]

For those talking about changing coach just consider our game plan's biggest weakness has been teams that play on at all costs (i.e. almost automatically).

And the AFL has brought in a rule at the very last minute before the season that encourages teams to do this. The lateness of the rule (standing the mark) introduction has meant we haven't been able to make off-season changes to counter this and anyway... our squad makeup (plus injuries) has locked us in for this season.

 

[HoneyBadger35]

You're proving a point that is irrelevant.

Buckley came within a kick of winning a flag. The general consensus is he's in trouble.

That's football. It doesn't mean he can't coach, or can't have success somewhere else. The message is no longer working, so it's best for both parties to move on.

I wasn't proving any point other than disputing the Pies have outperformed the Eagles since 2018. It's objectively true that they haven't.

 

[BrotherDodge]

We can be dissatisfied with how we're going but the Pies have in no universe outperformed us.

I dunno man, the Pies are screwed this year but they did make a prelim in 2019 and knocked us out last year. I'd have to hand it to them in a points decision, they've been slightly better than us when it's mattered since 2018.

 

[RookiePick]

I wasn't proving any point other than disputing the Pies have outperformed the Eagles since 2018. It's objectively true that they haven't.

TBF using Collingwood as a yardstick is faulty thinking.

The issue is that we seem more aligned with Collingwood post 2018 fortunes than with the contenders.

 

[JezMez]

Nobody has entrusted a dog with a head coaching gig either, so there's not enough data to suggest that a dog couldn't guide this group to a flag. Can we use historical performance (as you have), or can we not? There tends to be a reason coaches don't get another gig. It's because all the evidence suggests that a first term coach is the way to go.

You used data to show the percentage of "non-flag winning coaches at a second club" is low. Well of course it is, there's not enough of them to gauge a success rate.

And yes - most don't get another gig because they aren't up to it. There are however exceptions.

I mean a chance at finals, a chance at a flag, a chance at continuing to enjoy the level of recent success envied by all clubs but Richmond.

You think it's over. I don't. If a Premiership is the be all and end all of football, I think we have everything to lose. Ultimately, I don't think we'll see eye to eye on this, but that's why I don't think sacking Simmo and installing Michael Voss or Guy McKenna is the way the club will find their next flag.

Finals is neither here nor there unless you're on the way up.
A chance of a flag? You missed the memo. Let transcribe what it said: "13 unanswered goals".

btw: I said no to McKenna, just said I thought he was a good coach back in the day.

btw: Where's Voss right now? Last time I checked he was an assistant at a flag favourite.[/quote][/QUOTE]

 

[HoneyBadger35]

btw: Where's Voss right now? Last time I checked he was an assistant at a flag favourite.

Last time I checked he was the midfield coach at a team our weak, soft, not up to it midfield battered en route to an easy win. Let’s replace Simmo with the one guy he actually managed to beat in the midfield hey?

We’re not sacking Simmo after the Cats game so this is all a bit moot, but I’m very much over the discussion that Simmo out, Voss/Pyke/Buckley in is the path.

We don’t have a crystal ball, but also we can say with certainty that Simmo has lost the group and will never win another flag at West Coast. Cool. Very reasonable.

I’m bored of this chat. I look forward to reading your posts when we next lose a game, given you’ve posted on this board 77 times, and not one has been during or after a win.

 

[Cuzz09]

FYI: the result against the Cats was the second heaviest loss for this season. Let's give that some perspective. Contender PtA beat the easily shittest team NM by 128 points. The second biggest loss was contender Cats beating contender(???) WCE by 97 points.

It's that bad.

Bulldogs beat North by that much not Port

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[ziad]

It’s hard though for a number of reasons. No one wants to move to Perth (or stay for long ala SMitch) and would rather a cushy Melbourne job, so we are limited to people with a strong connection to the club or Simmo.

Then on top of that we can’t even offset that disadvantage with an advantage of our own as a rich club because they cap it all in the name of “fairness”. Absolutely laughable given the issues we face due to location. No one can do anything about where we live, but at least let us spend our money to lure some quality people across. More “quirks” of this wonderful competition.

spot on

 

[salo]

No doubt we've put in some ordinary performances away from home this year and not a whole lot of 4 quarter efforts since 2018. Part of that is what happens when you win a flag and everyone starts coming after you. Fair to say our players and gameplan haven't held up as well as Richmond over that period.

The best chance for our current team is to make finals and hope we have a fit and experienced team coming together at the right time of the year. Get the majority of the best 22 back to something like career best form, bring in Rioli and pray for sunshine.

It doesn't make sense to sack Simmo now to get a start on any rebuild and we would have to do a fair bit more serious losing before that become a consideration of the club in 2021.

 

[JezMez]

It doesn't make sense to sack Simmo now to get a start on any rebuild and we would have to do a fair bit more serious losing before that become a consideration of the club in 2021.

Not a rebuild. Just a change of game plan.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Nah.

The flag window is still open (or more to the point, we don't yet have confirmation it has shut). For whatever reason, Simmo's message is not getting through. I suspect it's got stale and after years of playing a "coralling game style" the players just can't contest at the same level and consistency against teams who are fresh and focus on this a lot more.

So why would you keep a coach who is unlikely to be able to turn the ship around before the window closes? There's an opportunity right now and it needs to be taken.

John Worsfold was a "good coach". He won the 2006 flag. But soon after the wheels fell off and he kept playing his old firm who were no longer performing (sound familiar). People like me had to sit around for a few seasons before the club worked out it wasn't going to work. I don't see a point in sitting through that again - when that flag window shuts, the malaise enters in, and a few seasons later we twig a change is needed.

Cut the circuit now. Get an experienced coach who doesn't need an apprenticeship to have a red hot go. If it fails, so be it and rebuild. Right now we are going through the motions of a slow death.

ps those recent two losses have everything to do with him. It's indicative to a downward slide over the last two seasons.

Worsford won a premiership and lost a grand final by a kick in the space of two season, easily could have been 2 flags back to back. Most sides typically get a year or so crack at it then its either a mild drop off mid table or an age decline and rebuild. You seem to think the first sign of a side premiership team sliding post premiership means to throw out a coach. It doesnt mean it “ doesnt work” all of a sudden, it is just very very hard to maintain a side for a prolonged period of time that is capable of winning a premiership. You will find historically brisbane geelong hawthorn richmond are the exceptions, not the rule for contention. Most dont compete for 4-5 years unless you built a super team of an era. I think you are getting expectations of how long a team should be competing for a flag muddled up.

You also talk like premiership coaches are apples growing on trees, adam simpson has shown he is capable of coaching a premiership, how many coaches that come through the system do you think can achieve that?? Hardly any.

And also basee off your logic, every single coach besides hardwick with teams who have made the top 8 the past few years should be sacked, because they have been trying and failing for more than simpson has... He is the second most recent premiership coach in the AFL system. Bit mad to say you need a fresh start from that. I guess everyone does then

 

[JezMez]

Worsford won a premiership and lost a grand final by a kick in the space of two season, easily could have been 2 flags back to back. Most sides typically get a year or so crack at it then its either a mild drop off mid table or an age decline and rebuild. You seem to think the first sign of a side premiership team sliding post premiership means to throw out a coach. It doesnt mean it “ doesnt work” all of a sudden, it is just very very hard to maintain a side for a prolonged period of time that is capable of winning a premiership. You will find historically brisbane geelong hawthorn richmond are the exceptions, not the rule for contention. Most dont compete for 4-5 years unless you built a super team of an era. I think you are getting expectations of how long a team should be competing for a flag muddled up.

You also talk like premiership coaches are apples growing on trees, adam simpson has shown he is capable of coaching a premiership, how many coaches that come through the system do you think can achieve that?? Hardly any.

And also basee off your logic, every single coach besides hardwick with teams who have made the top 8 the past few years should be sacked, because they have been trying and failing for more than simpson has... He is the second most recent premiership coach in the AFL system. Bit mad to say you need a fresh start from that. I guess everyone does then

05 = RU
06 = Flag
07 = Judd and Cousins injuries?
08 = Had to play at Port after finishing above them?

That's my memory. Not going to go look it up, but that's roughly what happened.

After that;

- Still playing man on man when the game had changed
- Cox was constantly playing for free kicks (notice what Gov does with his his, "everyone else is wrong and I don't want to work hard attitude"?)

I can't remember any more specifics, but we slid and at the time (maybe 2010/2011) I was asking for Woosha to be moved on. And then there was a bunch of posters like you saying, "but he's won a flag", "he's the best ever Eagle" etc etc.

He was cooked and that turned out to be correct. Simmo is cooked unless he changes his game plan. History has a habit of repeating itself.

 

[Cuzz09]

Yeah thats why history says we will crash hard in the next few years followed by a rapid rise to the top for a long period.

The key is to take your chance when you're there not stuff it up.

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