What happens next if Putin drops a nuke on Ukraine?

[Seeds]

The probability of this playing out is rising through the roof. What do governments do next? Will the west be at war with Russia once it happens and if so how does Russia respond? How will society react when it happens? How far will markets crash? Will borders close again?

I was listening to ABC National the other day and the presenter was discussing with a Russian expert and he asked him a question: "What do we need to see happen before Russia starts to seriously consider a nuclear attack?" The experts response was blunt. "They are already seriously considering it?". "This is now as serious as the Cuban missile crisis".

Five days ago a nuclear expert in the following article places the probability of russia using nukes at 10-20 percent. Which is intolerably high. A genuine real possibility.





Although highly speculative, there are suggestions that Putins organising a meeting in coming days in response to the Crimea bridge collapse and ongoing inroads made by Ukraine to discuss deploying a nuclear attack.

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/vladimir-putin-accuses-ukrainian-secret-services-of-being-behind-crimea-bridge-attack/news-story/fd5f2a9561588e1f51472344de122e86

whether the risk is 1 percent or 50 per cent. Its now far too high to ignore. the world could change in an instant in the coming months, weeks or even days. So how do you think it would play out? Is it even predictable?

 

[Sqotty from office works]

Would probably miss.

 

[Schneebly11]

The Kerch Bridge has already been partially reopened, so it’s effect on Russia’s ability to supply Crimea is not too badly affected.

They would know when these weapons are being moved and delivery platforms are being prepared. I’m sure the US government has back channel direct communication to the Russian givernment and military command. There would be a direct message (Don’t) if there was any risk of launch at Ukraine.

What may be slightly more likely (although still improbable) is a Nuclear test underground close to Ukraine or underwater in the Black Sea. This would be as an intimidation tactic.

 

[Schneebly11]

Anyway it looks as if the Russian revenge for the Kerch Bridge attack was just carried out. Multiple bomber and missile strikes against civilian areas in several Ukrainian held cities, including Kyiv, within the last hour. These strikes were timed to hit right during morning peak hour traffic.

 

[Seeds]

The Kerch Bridge has already been partially reopened, so it’s effect on Russia’s ability to supply Crimea is not too badly affected.

They would know when these weapons are being moved and delivery platforms are being prepared. I’m sure the US government has back channel direct communication to the Russian givernment and military command. There would be a direct message (Don’t) if there was any risk of launch at Ukraine.

What may be slightly more likely (although still improbable) is a Nuclear test underground close to Ukraine or underwater in the Black Sea. This would be as an intimidation tactic.

A test first does seem likely. actually a test seems likely even if its just purely for bluff purposes.

 

[Zidane98]

As Putin can't launch a first strike nuke by himself I really don't think this is even worthy of a separate thread to the war in ukraine thread.



Putin has been making hollow nuke threats as far back as 2008. It's old news.

 

[Marcel Proust]

A non nuclear holocaust result sounds decent?

 

[JackFlash]

He's very unpredictable, but a small nuckear strike on the Ukraine will put Russian cities and territory in serious jeiopardy.

 

[Zidane98]

He's very unpredictable, but a small nuckear strike on the Ukraine will put Russian cities and territory in serious jeiopardy.

China & India definitely won't be neutral after such an act either. They'll turn on Vlad and all of a sudden Russia's far East will be at risk.


Lukashenko would be furious that Belarus would be put at risk of radioactive fallout.



Vlad's only friends left after a nuclear first strike are Kim Jong and possibly Assad. It would end his political career, leave Russian military in tatters and change nothing in the war. This is why a nuclear first strike by Putin is always going to be a non starter.

 

[JackFlash]

China & India definitely won't be neutral after such an act either. They'll turn on Vlad and all of a sudden Russia's far East will be at risk.


Lukashenko would be furious that Belarus would be put at risk of radioactive fallout.



Vlad's only friends left after a nuclear first strike are Kim Jong and possibly Assad. It would end his political career, leave Russian military in tatters and change nothing in the war. This is why a nuclear first strike by Putin is always going to be a non starter.

Kyiv is only 150km from the Belarus border, Vlad has a problem. He's desperate and paranoid beyond belief, anything could happen? If it does, it will end badly for him.

 

[Zidane98]

Kyiv is only 150km from the Belarus border, Vlad has a problem. He's desperate and paranoid beyond belief, anything could happen? If it does, it will end badly for him.

Vlad prefers to keep Belarus & his bitch Lukashenko under his influence. This is another reason why he'll never pull the nuclear trigger.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

Radiation would poison Russians and someone would whack Putin.

 

[Blue1980]

Fox News and other RWNJ’s would blame Biden.

 

[Saint]

Still not going to happen. Everyone in charge of Russia owns billions of assets in the West, they won't attack the west. It's where all their accumulated wealth is kept and where their families live.

It's just not going to happen.

 

[FireKrakouer]

You're smarter than this, Seeds. The media have been beating up a possible nuke attack from NK or Russia forever now. Mfs acting like this is the first US v Russia proxy war in history.

 

[darth_timon]

In the unlikely event Putin proves stupid enough to give such an order, and in an even more unlikely event, no one overrides him or steps in, the world would see Russia's prep long before they were ready to launch, and could either A: directly intervene with an attack (unlikely, as that would trigger all-out war, and rally the Russian people around Putin, no matter what), or B: make it abundantly clear that any launch modules would be destroyed before they could get into range.

An ICBM (unlikely to be used, given how much more powerful they are, and Russian noises are about tactical nukes, not strategic city busters) would possibly be harder to intercept (I don't know, my expertise is in designing bathrooms, not nuclear weapons), but it's not impossible. They'd also take time to prep, and the US and their allies would see it happening. The chances are, any effort to fire nukes gets spotted and stopped.

If Russia succeeds in deploying a tactical nuke, the global response would be devastating. The US has already made it clear all Russian forces in Ukraine would cease to exist. Even vaunted allies like China would have no choice but to withdraw any and all economic, political and military support. It's entirely possible NATO might use conventional means to strike as many Russian nuclear launch sites as possible. Russia's military would probably openly rebel, and the Russian people would be horrified that Putin had led them to pariah nation status. It would be terrible for Ukraine, and all the lives they would lose, and it would utterly destroy Putin.

 

[Zidane98]

The thing is with all of Russia's strategic nukes they are located in known, declared storage locations. There will be at least 24-48 hours notice of any attempt to prepare them for deployment with them being shipped to deployment locations (usually air force bases and on to bomber aircraft). Very easy to take out Russian bomber forces in that instance and render their strategic arsenal useless.

These weapons cannot be fired by Putin alone either. They require multiple simultaneous authorities to fire with multiple chains of command. Firing them without these permissive links is simply physically impossible. The likelihood of everyone on the chain of command agreeing to launch a first strike is also highly unlikely.


ICBMS are more difficult to detect launch preparations for as they are located in silos. These are a non starter in Ukraine though as their use would almost certainly affect south west Russia and definitely significantly affect Belarus who are Russia's main ally these days.


Basically Putin's trying to use the implied possibility of a nuke being fired as a negotiation tactic. Seeing as western nuclear forces have not changed any of their alert levels and prepared their own nukes for immediate retaliation it can be safely assumed that the the possibility of a first strike is SFA. And Putin hates the fact that the west know it and aren't being intimidated by him.

 

[Marcel Proust]

In the unlikely event Putin proves stupid enough to give such an order, and in an even more unlikely event, no one overrides him or steps in, the world would see Russia's prep long before they were ready to launch, and could either A: directly intervene with an attack (unlikely, as that would trigger all-out war, and rally the Russian people around Putin, no matter what), or B: make it abundantly clear that any launch modules would be destroyed before they could get into range.

An ICBM (unlikely to be used, given how much more powerful they are, and Russian noises are about tactical nukes, not strategic city busters) would possibly be harder to intercept (I don't know, my expertise is in designing bathrooms, not nuclear weapons), but it's not impossible. They'd also take time to prep, and the US and their allies would see it happening. The chances are, any effort to fire nukes gets spotted and stopped.

If Russia succeeds in deploying a tactical nuke, the global response would be devastating. The US has already made it clear all Russian forces in Ukraine would cease to exist. Even vaunted allies like China would have no choice but to withdraw any and all economic, political and military support. It's entirely possible NATO might use conventional means to strike as many Russian nuclear launch sites as possible. Russia's military would probably openly rebel, and the Russian people would be horrified that Putin had led them to pariah nation status. It would be terrible for Ukraine, and all the lives they would lose, and it would utterly destroy Putin.

And how would Russia respond if the USA took out the Russian army?

 

[Marcel Proust]

Still not going to happen. Everyone in charge of Russia owns billions of assets in the West, they won't attack the west. It's where all their accumulated wealth is kept and where their families live.

It's just not going to happen.

People seem pretty confident financial assets matter in a post nuclear war world. I am not so sure.

 

[Zidane98]

And how would Russia respond if the USA took out the Russian army?

The response would be limited to Russian Black Sea region assets and military bases within range of Ukraine. Russia's a huge nation, there would be plenty of their army left. Their ambitions in Ukraine and the Black Sea would be over though.


A nuke does nothing for Putin at all but ostracise him from the whole world bar Kim Jong and lose his political control over Moscow. This does not even address the fact that it is not possible for Putin to launch a first strike nuclear weapon without multiple simultaneous authorisations from multiple chains of command.

 

[Schneebly11]

This does not even address the fact that it is not possible for Putin to launch a first strike nuclear weapon without multiple simultaneous authorisations from multiple chains of command.

The tactical nukes Russia would use are kept under lock and key in security locations, but good chance the US has satellites and the electronic intelligence monitoring their move. The second they are moved from secure facilities and put in heavily guarded convoys to the front to delivery systems the Yanks would know.

It’s the main reason they say that Russia isn’t considering nuclear weapon use.

 

[Marcel Proust]

 

[Lethality]

Hopefully just an all out assault on Russia's military capability would occur if they were even getting into position where they could launch nuclear missiles.

 

[Hoops]

Fox News and other RWNJ’s would blame Biden.

which one?

 

[Seeds]

Hopefully just an all out assault on Russia's military capability would occur if they were even getting into position where they could launch nuclear missiles.

They already are in position. What exactly do you think needs to happen to launch a nuke? Its not some long process that gives everyone lots of time to act. these missiles can travel 10s of thousands of kms. They dont have to move anywhere.