What happens next if Putin drops a nuke on Ukraine?

[O Grobbecker]

The US isn't his enemy either. It is democracy on his front door. Putin wants total control over Russia and it will be hard to stop the inmateat bay in Russia if they see a free and democratic Ukraine thriving next door. Hence Putin's attempts to subjugate Ukraine into once again being a Russian puppet state. Unfortunately for Putin Ukraine is just too big of a nation to control and pretty much the entire democratic world are pushing back against his fascist Ukraine ideology.

Putin's already admitted publicly that Russia only fire nukes if fired upon. And in any case, if he were to let off a nuke south west Russia and his puppet mate Lukashenko likely bear the brunt of radioactive fallout. That scenario would be enough to turn Belarus against Russia which would be a complete disaster for Putin.


Make no mistake this is also very much a Ukraine-Russia conflict. There is a long history of Russian oppression / hegemony of Ukranian culture / nationality. This is just the modern version of it. Ukraine wants to be a democracy with free trade / ties to Europe. Russia wants Ukraine as a puppet state and pretty much back in a USSR era mentality. Ultimately this is what it comes down to.

There's a fool born every minutel

 

[Aussie in exile]

The probability of this playing out is rising through the roof. What do governments do next? Will the west be at war with Russia once it happens and if so how does Russia respond? How will society react when it happens? How far will markets crash? Will borders close again?

I was listening to ABC National the other day and the presenter was discussing with a Russian expert and he asked him a question: "What do we need to see happen before Russia starts to seriously consider a nuclear attack?" The experts response was blunt. "They are already seriously considering it?". "This is now as serious as the Cuban missile crisis".

Five days ago a nuclear expert in the following article places the probability of russia using nukes at 10-20 percent. Which is intolerably high. A genuine real possibility.





Although highly speculative, there are suggestions that Putins organising a meeting in coming days in response to the Crimea bridge collapse and ongoing inroads made by Ukraine to discuss deploying a nuclear attack.

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/vladimir-putin-accuses-ukrainian-secret-services-of-being-behind-crimea-bridge-attack/news-story/fd5f2a9561588e1f51472344de122e86

whether the risk is 1 percent or 50 per cent. Its now far too high to ignore. the world could change in an instant in the coming months, weeks or even days. So how do you think it would play out? Is it even predictable?

Very unlikely to happen, but in the very slim chance it did it's bye bye Russia, and Putin knows this

 

[Andre]

The US isn't his enemy either. It is democracy on his front door. Putin wants total control over Russia and it will be hard to stop the inmateat bay in Russia if they see a free and democratic Ukraine thriving next door. Hence Putin's attempts to subjugate Ukraine into once again being a Russian puppet state. Unfortunately for Putin Ukraine is just too big of a nation to control and pretty much the entire democratic world are pushing back against his fascist Ukraine ideology.

Putin's already admitted publicly that Russia only fire nukes if fired upon. And in any case, if he were to let off a nuke south west Russia and his puppet mate Lukashenko likely bear the brunt of radioactive fallout. That scenario would be enough to turn Belarus against Russia which would be a complete disaster for Putin.


Make no mistake this is also very much a Ukraine-Russia conflict. There is a long history of Russian oppression / hegemony of Ukranian culture / nationality. This is just the modern version of it. Ukraine wants to be a democracy with free trade / ties to Europe. Russia wants Ukraine as a puppet state and pretty much back in a USSR era mentality. Ultimately this is what it comes down to.

On the fallout, if Russia did use a nuke it's much more likely to be a tactical nuke, with limited fallout. The problem is from a military point of view the Ukranians are fighting as a military needs to in the 21st century. They are dispersed and on the move regularly. I suppose they could nuke Bakumut, but that'd rule out them being able to go into it, so it'd show up as not a victory at all. Drop a nuke and the Ukranians would feel any 'red lines' could now be crossed. You could be sure Moscow, St. Petersburg Etc. would get targeted by drone attacks.

 

[Jello_B]

The US isn't his enemy either. It is democracy on his front door. Putin wants total control over Russia and it will be hard to stop the inmateat bay in Russia if they see a free and democratic Ukraine thriving next door. Hence Putin's attempts to subjugate Ukraine into once again being a Russian puppet state. Unfortunately for Putin Ukraine is just too big of a nation to control and pretty much the entire democratic world are pushing back against his fascist Ukraine ideology.

Putin's already admitted publicly that Russia only fire nukes if fired upon. And in any case, if he were to let off a nuke south west Russia and his puppet mate Lukashenko likely bear the brunt of radioactive fallout. That scenario would be enough to turn Belarus against Russia which would be a complete disaster for Putin.


Make no mistake this is also very much an Ukraine-Russia conflict. There is a long history of Russian oppression / hegemony of Ukranian culture / nationality. This is just the modern version of it. Ukraine wants to be a democracy with free trade / ties to Europe. Russia wants Ukraine as a puppet state and pretty much back in a USSR era mentality. Ultimately this is what it comes down to.

There are already democratic nations that border Russia.

 

[wannabejack]

There are already democratic nations that border Russia.

Most of them are NATO members, Ukraine isn't and Putin thought his invasion was going to be quick and easy.

 

[Green Hammer]

Most of them are NATO members, Ukraine isn't and Putin thought his invasion was going to be quick and easy.

1 year on. Its a war of attrition with ukraine running out of ammo

 

[wannabejack]

1 year on. Its a war of attrition with ukraine running out of ammo

The United States has provided upwards of $24 billion in military aid since the beginning of the conflict, and has sufficient authorized appropriations to continue high levels of support until the end of the fiscal year in October. The Republicans’ control of the House will undoubtedly lead to greater scrutiny of the administration’s requests but is unlikely to result in decreased support. At the same time, the West is prepared to provide increasingly sophisticated weaponry to Ukraine. Most recently it approved provision of main battle tanks and likely will supply advanced warplanes as Kyiv plans a major offensive.

 

[O Grobbecker]

The United States has provided upwards of $24 billion in military aid since the beginning of the conflict, and has sufficient authorized appropriations to continue high levels of support until the end of the fiscal year in October. The Republicans’ control of the House will undoubtedly lead to greater scrutiny of the administration’s requests but is unlikely to result in decreased support. At the same time, the West is prepared to provide increasingly sophisticated weaponry to Ukraine. Most recently it approved provision of main battle tanks and likely will supply advanced warplanes as Kyiv plans a major offensive.

the yanks are getting smarter. It's only a question of time until they provide Moscow-bound rockets. I love the US, our 8th State.

 

[Green Hammer]

the yanks are getting smarter. It's only a question of time until they provide Moscow-bound rockets. I love the US, our 8th State.

Come on mate. I thought you were union jack all the way

 

[O Grobbecker]

Come on mate. I thought you were union jack all the way

I was pretty keen on it until the Brits pinched the north west corner of our flag. A lot changed after 8 Feb 1942. Why would you think I'm an Anglophile ?

 

[Green Hammer]

I was pretty keen on it until the Brits pinched the north west corner of our flag. A lot changed after 8 Feb 1942. Why would you think I'm an Anglophile ?

They did too those dirty thieving poms

 

[O Grobbecker]

They did too those dirty thieving poms

Love the humour. That said, those Brits stationed in Singapore weren't treated any better than my unkle Ron in Changhi.