When do we drop off?

[patdman]

Just a little question to weed out the optimists and pessimists of the Geelong Board.

I am going to define dropping off as falling outside the top 6 as no team has ever won the flag from this position. It dont subscribe to the theory that it wont happen at all.

So when do you think it will happen?

 

[MisterMarcus]

TBH I thought it would be this year but doesn't look like it so far.

Remember when these crashes come, they generally come pretty quickly and just when people are talking you up to "go around again" (Carlton 2002, Brisbane 2005, Port 2008, Adelaide this year).

I'll say next year. One or two more retirements plus a couple of guys hitting the wall in their early 30's could well cause a sharp fall.

 

[The Casey Cat]

In 2012 I am not sure we will be as good a we are now but still ok. I see no reason why we could not keep this form up next year though.

 

[donbooger]

I picked when Scarlett retired, I expect it will 2012 onwards but specificly the year he stops playing will be the turning point.

 

[CF]

Hard one. The loss of Scarlett, Milburn, Ottens & Mooney in the next few years will make a difference. That's a lot of experience gone. Some good depth though so hopefully we can stay competitive for a few more years yet.

In the end why worry about when the drop will occur. Live in the moment mate. Enjoy what we have now as it wont last forever. When and how it all happens is irrelevant.

 

[oozeboss]

Don't know.

Don't care.

I'm just enjoying every single week right now.

(For all I know, Bomber could be establishing a dynasty like the old St George thugby league or Boston Celtics basketball teams which totally dominated their respective sports for a decade + regardless of who was actually coaching or playing.)

 

[AidanNelson2009]

I voted for 2012 because by then i don't think we will be as dominate as we are now, also Scarlett, Mooney, Milburn and Ottens will most likely have retired by then. Next year i believe we will be as good as this year if not better, but yeah, hard to see the mighty cats dominating the AFL still in 5 years time, i'd love for it to happen though .

 

[SJ]

I thought we'd be done by now. So this is all icing on the cake for now. That does not mean that I do not expect a professional standard every week, however if we drop off late this year I will find it understandable.

The competition is designed so that we should not be top in 2010. So far so good.

 

[thejester]

The old guys (who IMO are key to our side) haven't shown any drop in form (well, Ottens has been injured but that's par for the course really). We've got stacks of improvement out of some we had probably written/didn't have a lot of faith in (Blake, Lonergan) and others who are living up to the hype (Varcoe, Hawkins). Add to that Pods and Duncan from the draft and we actually look better than last year.

That said IMO our losses this year have shown how massively important Scarlett is to the team. I think we can potentially cover Mooney and Milburn, but not Ottens and definitely not Scarlett. When those two drop off or retire, I think we'll no longer be a premiership threat. Interestingly on SEN yesterday they asked Cook the same question and posed a hypothetical: would Geelong be happy to keep being competitive constantly, or embrace the window system? Cook said it would be a decision that would have to be made in the next 5-10 years, but not right now.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I've always believed that when Ottens, and in particular Scarlett, who is a once in a lifetime player, retire, we're going to struggle to win more flags. Having said that, as this year has shown, with Lonergan getting better, Pods wowing us all, and Duncan being a future ripper, as well as some of our kids in the VFL, we've certainly got some depth. Whether that's enough to carry us beyond the retirements, well I don't know and I suppose we'll find out. But realistically, this year is the best chance we'll have to win a flag in the next few years, that's for sure.

 

[Vdubs]

I just TAKE IT ONE WEEK AT A TIME

 

[vinum coupe]

If I was voting for my almost 7 year old daughter I would have selected NEVER.

Yesterday when watching the game I tried to get her to settle down and watch the game.

"Why should I watch it? I already know who's going to win, we always win"
Lucky little B&*^$%

 

[Vdubs]

Realistically, maybe when Bomber leaves. Can't imagine him leaving if we were on the crest of another really successful period.

 

[True Blue Cat]

When Scarlett retires i believe.

 

[RoyalCatFan]

Where is the option when stephen wells leaves?
(god forbid this ever happens)

 

[Cohzee]

How about we sit back and enjoy what we have? I don't give a shit about when we drop off, coz it certainly is not this year. And that is all we have at the moment.

 

[SJ]

If I was voting for my almost 7 year old daughter I would have selected NEVER.

Yesterday when watching the game I tried to get her to settle down and watch the game.

"Why should I watch it? I already know who's going to win, we always win"
Lucky little B&*^$%

I am glad I was a child during the 90s and suffered through that period. People who have less of an idea about footy tell me how easy I have it. I say that I have suffered in the past and most likely will have long periods in my adult life where I will suffer again.

 

[David the Cat]

I dont think any "drop-off" will come from a single player leaving..but rather a combination of players. Losing a clutch of players cant be replaced immediately, so a gradual departure is ideal. Who knows if that will happen.

Scarlett is just plain irreplacable, and when he goes, the defence will be weaker and more vunerable.

Ottens retiring will be a blow, but Geelong have played most of the last two seasons without him and the results speak for themselves. Sure, he's a very good player and a great finals performer, but he has been covered with the Blake/Hawkins strategy.. But combine his retirement with Mooneys and then you see problems. Podsiadly has relieved that a little, but Hawkins looks like he plays best in a ruck roving role, so losing a quality KPP will hurt....either that or you throw Hawkins to CHF which may/may not work. The Dawson Simpson/Blake combination doesnt feel good to me right now. So the structure will tested. It means we have to hope young Mitch is as good as people think and can get some game time in. My concern is it will take time for him to gain confidence in his body..perhaps 2/3 years.... and we may not have that time left with Cam.

There's also a guy called Ablett whose decision may also have an impact.

Lets not forget the role of the Club Administration ( including people like Wells ) and the coach's role in keeping the club in top 6...changes off-field can hurt too.

Anyway...stuff all that. I am just enjoying the ride. Go you Mighty Cats!!!

 

[cynical]

depends on if we start doing what most clubs do and hold onto old guys too long, if we keep replacing 2+ oldies a year we should be good for a while

when you get to a point when you have to replace 4 or more oldies because of form/injury/retirement thats when you drop off quickly

i think it'll be over when chapman/SJ retires probably around 2012/2013

 

[Belisarius]

Such a good side and such a good administration, if injuries do not take a serious toll, should take a bit to bring them down.

If GFC can keep Ablett and most of the side together - and a just 2 of Wells' more recent selections prove fruitful - then I can see the premiership window being open for 2-3 years.

It is hard to know much about how the opposition are catching us from year to year. It is as much about how good our opposition clubs make progress as much as Geelong keeping the team, the admin, the injuries and unearthing the odd new recruit going.

It is possible with some excellent outcomes re Ablett, a couple of Mitch's and a good run with injuries we will be a serious contender for the next 2-3 Premierships. Making it possible we could be seeing the greatest ever modern era side.

Perhaps a dream - but I for one think it is do-able if just a few key things happen. We have never had such a group of talented and committed administrators, staff and players all at one time - so there is just something to keep the dream alive for awhile yet.

 

[Beth]

If I was voting for my almost 7 year old daughter I would have selected NEVER.

Yesterday when watching the game I tried to get her to settle down and watch the game.

"Why should I watch it? I already know who's going to win, we always win"
Lucky little B&*^$%

7 year old me would like to have strong words with her! Having said that 7 year old me had a school bag with the cat doing the "aww drats" pose (someone must know what I mean?!) so it all balances out!

Anyway I digress, I reckon we will still be there abouts in finals, although not top 4 for another 3-4 years.

 

[DanA]

We've shown we can play without Ottens. We have Pods and Hawkins so Mooney won't be a problem. But Scarlett is irreplaceable. Once he retires we will have 1/2 a dozen others on the decline and will need to freshen the side up to remain competitive. I think it will be after 2012, 2 and 1/2 more seasons in contention.

 

[pinion]

i think it'll be 'various combinations of the above'

if ablett leaves, i think it'll be the start of a fall down the ladder. having depth is all well and good, but not only do you replace him with a guy like duncan or hogan, but you also have a cascading effect of selwood suddenly being the main man and bartel not far behind. both will get a harder tag than they're used to. given corey's year so far the end could be fast approaching for him as well. west coast's rapid fall shows what happens to a team when you lose two quality midfielders.

beyond that, the end of bomber's reign will probably be the end of the window.

you'll also see retirements coming thick and fast over the next few years. it'll start with the guys who are 30+ at the moment (milburn, scarlett, mooney, ottens) and before you know it chapman, hunt, ling, rooke, corey, enright and podsiadly will be in their 30's as well.

if ablett stays, i think we're still a big chance in 2011-12. if he leaves i think we'll fall away very quickly

 

[Tommy the Cat]

I voted never, we can always dream