Prediction When will Footy return ?

["The Roar Is Back"]

Is 60% the magic number for herd immunity?

Yes I believe so .
I was made aware of an interview Alan Jones (2gb) had with Danielle Anderson who I mentioned above . It is a terrific interview and one I’d suggest anyone who is interested in getting an educated view have a listen to .

 

[Bird Man]

Is 60% the magic number for herd immunity?

Essentially... as the recovered % goes up means that the virus cant spread. Worst case scenario is that we string it out and say half the population is immune, but if it mutates in a way that becomes worse we start over from the beginning.

 

["The Roar Is Back"]

How did China overcome it without a vaccine

They haven’t they’ve just altered the way they report ‘cases ‘ .

 

[Madtiger2006]

Need 2022 option. Absolutely no chance this things goes away in twelve months.

Round one, 2022.

So that means nothing will be open for 22 months and you won’t be able to earn money, eat and leave the house. You should be dead very soon

 

[Dusty0004]

China perceived to have controlled it through altering the way they report cases . It’s not until someone is upon life support that they are they now reporting it as a case .

they controlled the outbreak in Beijing incredibly well. Never heard of one

 

[Ahsog]

So that means nothing will be open for 22 months and you won’t be able to earn money, eat and leave the house. You should be dead very soon

Wot?

 

[tony__montana]

End of May or June

 

[JAKLAUGHING]

Is 60% the magic number for herd immunity?

Baaaaaaaaaa....

 

[a_fighting_fury]

Season’s over imo.

We don’t yet have a start date and there’s way too many uncertainties to be able to effectively plan the rest of the H&A season and Finals, let alone the complex enormity of a Grand Final.

 

[JAKLAUGHING]

 

[Ceehook]

Essentially... as the recovered % goes up means that the virus cant spread. Worst case scenario is that we string it out and say half the population is immune, but if it mutates in a way that becomes worse we start over from the beginning.
View attachment 847104

I've heard several "experts" talking on TV and radio about infection rates and doubling rates and comparison for previous
and there are plenty of common ground but there always seems to be a twist
this virus differs from others and our response differs so the outcomes differ (I know aw der )
One "expert" was saying we cant afford to be complacent about the herd immunity thing
unlike a seasonal flu we've gone to much greater lengths to protect and isolate the vulnerable
after a peak the virus mightn't spread so easily but doesn't cease to exist either
if we relax our isolation controls the hospitals , nursing homes , retirement villages will get exposed and we are likely to get that explosion of severe cases
we cant stay in full lock down for 6 - 9 months
just last night I had a really good chat with an Emergency Dept. triage nurse and she shared a whole bunch of stuff
and said a few times "here are the facts" and I go wow , work in Fed. Dept Health and been reading all sorts of briefing and back ground stuff
one was how long from exposure to being contagious she had heard around 2 days , from a crediable source I'd heard as little as 1 hour from what I thought was a good source , then there was the how long does it survive on a surface and we both had very differing "facts"
I think in those cases they are all real observations , it s just there is a lot of variability and a lot of observations will have to be brought together before we can declare "facts"

I have no doubt rate of Corona infection graphs will look similar to the graph above , but the nature this virus will mean the little differences will have a deadly twist

 

[sregit]

How did China overcome it without a vaccine

China hasn't overcome it. It's bullshit.

 

[sregit]

Is 60% the magic number for herd immunity?

Herd immunity can require up to 90%, not just 60%. It is usually employed as a solution when no other logical alternative is available. Covid19 has a high mortality rate and I do not think as a society we'd be prepared to accept the number of deaths that would occur. The interesting thing is that the Dutch have announced that they will employ this statergy and we will be able to measure their failure or success / number of deaths versus our own strategies in a few weeks. I suspect that the Dutch will have vast numbers die.

 

[Bojangles17]

how good will the first R be when footy finally returns , fair dinkum I think it will be something like Woodstock. they'll be dancing in the streets, free love . I cant wait

 

[Achilles Heel]

wrong... this virus is extremely unlikely to mutate in the same way that influenza does.

Thanks Luis Pastuer

 

[Achilles Heel]

It hasn't it has controlled it but nothing stops it from coming back in a wave-like it did with the Spanish flu. For Australia, it would mean control it enough to have all cases reported and under examination with our borders closed to affected nations till the point where all people here get over it and we operate in a way that has no travel and super-tight border control until a vaccine is made.

Airports still open as I type this

 

[k31th]

Thanks Luis Pastuer

happy to help, ST

 

[MadTigerFan]

Don't really care tbh.

 

[Phar Ace]

On the Tail or the Face?!?!?!

Leave that up to your particular taste or fancy mate - each to their own

 

[Phar Ace]

The virus has already mutated from its original strain. Vacinnes will help a little but won’t stop it. Everyone gets the flu shot but the flu kills more people then most things because it is forever mutating.

This will effect next season as well unfortunately..

Not entirely true Yes the virus mutates, all do, but medical experts have been pleasantly surprised how little this one does. Studies, in Australia at least, say the virus is quite stable so far and that a vaccine will have significant impact for the next few years at least, unless there is considerable divergence from what is being seen curreently.

 

[Phar Ace]

Is 60% the magic number for herd immunity?

Close! I think that is the number for nerd immunity!

 

[a_fighting_fury]

China hasn't overcome it. It's bullshit.

Here's how Australia compares to some other key countries when it comes to the global coronavirus picture.

 

[tugga]

View attachment 847921
Here's how Australia compares to some other key countries when it comes to the global coronavirus picture.

Scary stuff. Just one big line upwards.

 

[HTT]

View attachment 847921
Here's how Australia compares to some other key countries when it comes to the global coronavirus picture.

It’s ok just go wash your hands and keep haircuts to under 30min guys

 

[a_fighting_fury]

Scary stuff. Just one big line upwards.

It’s encouraging to see China’s line plateauing