Prediction Where will we end up
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Saint believer
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Love all the comments especially the one above.
I love where we are heading as a team and as a club.
Just don't expect us to do what the doggies did last season. That is more likely in 2017!
George
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Reimagine Moorabbin
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We will finish 8th.
sammm
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George
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Reimagine Moorabbin
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I felt the same initially afterwards but Melbourne are going to be thereabouts too this year so I still stand by it.
They just analysed us on the Fox Footy show where they're previewing the season by going through every team and their prospects.
The only one of them who put a number on the amount of wins we'd need for a pass mark was Gerard Healy and he said 8 was our pass mark.
The only one of them who put a number on the amount of wins we'd need for a pass mark was Gerard Healy and he said 8 was our pass mark.
Not sure if serious? Not that I think we'll make the 8, but what were you expecting would happen on Sunday when we hadn't played for 3 weeks, were playing a team who had played and won the last two weeks and when we had 8 playing their first game in 6 months while they might not have had any? We were out on our feet by the 3rd quarter while they were still full of run. It would have just about taken a miracle for us to have won that game.
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Geelong
Port
Freo
WB
Coll
WC
Haw
GWS
NM
Rich
Adel
Syd
Mel
14th Saints
GC
BL
Car
Ess
I dont think the top 8 is gona change too much exept for positioning. Can't see Hawks or WC making top 4 or grand final this year. Geelong the team to beat. Saints finish similar to last year.
Port
Freo
WB
Coll
WC
Haw
GWS
NM
Rich
Adel
Syd
Mel
14th Saints
GC
BL
Car
Ess
I dont think the top 8 is gona change too much exept for positioning. Can't see Hawks or WC making top 4 or grand final this year. Geelong the team to beat. Saints finish similar to last year.
sonnywalters
Cancelled
If Geelong are the 'team to beat' I think a lot of sides will topple that mountain. And if you think BOTH the Hawks and WC will drop from the top 4 then you are going to be disappointed.
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Pretty excited about the season ahead, although I only think we'll win around 6 games again. If we win 8 is be rapt.
Just looking forward to seeing improvement from our younger guys and hopefully by the end of the year we will start to see a bit of a transition with who the team relies on most to win a game of footy.
At the momet besides Armo and Steven, we still rely heavily on the older guys like Roo, Joey, Dempster and Fisher.
Bruce and Billings have already shown they are match winners, hopefully they can improve again. I expect Dunstan to really stand up this year, as will Ross.
I'd be rapt to see McCartin play 15 to 18 games and end up with a few goals. Hopefully Goddard gets a few games into him too.
Just looking forward to seeing improvement from our younger guys and hopefully by the end of the year we will start to see a bit of a transition with who the team relies on most to win a game of footy.
At the momet besides Armo and Steven, we still rely heavily on the older guys like Roo, Joey, Dempster and Fisher.
Bruce and Billings have already shown they are match winners, hopefully they can improve again. I expect Dunstan to really stand up this year, as will Ross.
I'd be rapt to see McCartin play 15 to 18 games and end up with a few goals. Hopefully Goddard gets a few games into him too.
BigMonty
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Sorry to rain on your parade but we traded next year's 2nd rnd pick for Freeman.
Do agree with your sentiments re getting games into players.
Teams go backwards the next year mainly through injuries and stall on their rise up the ladder due to retirements.
I reckon the interesting one is Geelong, they have bet the farm on Dangerfield but they are retiring some favourite sons who know how to win/tie games from losing positions viz us last year. They could be good/bad we need to wait and see.
So Geelong could slide, Sydney I reckon could slide but with Buddy you never know, if he lights up then watch out.
For us it is another season of building and growth. If we get key injuries then we will struggle but not as much if they happened last year, we are a stronger deeper list than last year. Get more games into McCartin/Goddard/Billings/Freeman/Gresham/McKenzie/Acres all picks inside 20 (or near enough) add to it Carlisle...next year 2017 we will burst on the scene with a more complete solid team and play competitive football all year rather than half a year as I expect from us in 2016.
So I reckon we SHOULD beat Ess & Carl twice so there is 4 wins. I do not expect us to win interstate, we should snare/split games with the likes of Melb/GCS/Bris, so there is say 3 more and maybe an interstate team/Geelong if they are out of form when we play them at Eitiad. That makes a possible 8 wins, do not reckon there will be more than that and could be as low as 6 which is similar to last year. Finish 13-14.
2017 with North & Sydney & Freo & possibly Haw running out of steam with retirements they will fall and we should start to leapfrog them and challenge for the 8.
BTW next Sat Port by 32 and Tommy Lee should play!
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I think we can start off by penciling in seven wins: two wins each against Carlton, Essendon and Melbourne, and one win against Brisbane. Also, we inevitably win two games each year that we weren't expecting to, and I don't see why this year would be any different, so there's potentially nine wins for the season. Over the last four seasons we have lost so many winnable games due to a combination of circumstances: our poor kicking for goal, unfortunately being on the wrong end of some 60/40 umpiring decisions (see StK v Coll 2012), important players getting injured early in games, and sometimes just plain bad luck. The laws of probability surely dictate that at some point our fortunes will change in some of these close games, and if this happens then we could certainly win a couple more of the games that go down to the wire. So if everything (or at least most things go right) I could see us winning up to eleven games and be genuinely knocking on the door of the eight.
For those in the media and a few on here that are suggesting Melbourne have gone ahead of us, consider the following:
1. Melbourne have not beaten us for a decade,
2. If we had kicked one more point (vs Geelong) last year we would have finished ahead of Melbourne on the ladder,
3. We beat Melbourne at Eithad twice last year and play them twice at Etihad again this year,
4. Take out the stupid Supergoal rule (which is only there to bump up TV ratings) and we only lost by a respectable 17 points on Sunday,
5. The fact that they beat us on Sunday was purely due to the fact that one team hadn't played a game in 21 days whilst the other was playing its third game in 15 days, so superior match fitness was the difference,
6. We experimented with the interchange rotations and got it horribly wrong: We still had almost 40% of our rotations yet to be used at 3/4 time (edit: 38% actually). Unfortunately we were cooked by then and we couldn't take advantage of this fact as, even if we'd had 100 rotations left, it wouldn't have mattered as everyone was too fatigued after having so few breaks in the first three quarters,
7. We have quite a few players to bring in, so by the time we next play Melbourne we will have a different line-up and different structures For example: A fit Longer in the ruck, McCartin at Full Forward, the REAL Nick Riewoldt playing, possibly a fit and firing Freeman on the wing, an extra tall defender etc.
So I think at least nine wins for the year is highly likely, and with fortunes favouring us, eleven wins is not out of the question. As for making the eight, who knows? Put it this way, I was convinced the Bulldogs would finish 18th last year and they finished the H & A season on fourteen wins and in 6th place.
For those in the media and a few on here that are suggesting Melbourne have gone ahead of us, consider the following:
1. Melbourne have not beaten us for a decade,
2. If we had kicked one more point (vs Geelong) last year we would have finished ahead of Melbourne on the ladder,
3. We beat Melbourne at Eithad twice last year and play them twice at Etihad again this year,
4. Take out the stupid Supergoal rule (which is only there to bump up TV ratings) and we only lost by a respectable 17 points on Sunday,
5. The fact that they beat us on Sunday was purely due to the fact that one team hadn't played a game in 21 days whilst the other was playing its third game in 15 days, so superior match fitness was the difference,
6. We experimented with the interchange rotations and got it horribly wrong: We still had almost 40% of our rotations yet to be used at 3/4 time (edit: 38% actually). Unfortunately we were cooked by then and we couldn't take advantage of this fact as, even if we'd had 100 rotations left, it wouldn't have mattered as everyone was too fatigued after having so few breaks in the first three quarters,
7. We have quite a few players to bring in, so by the time we next play Melbourne we will have a different line-up and different structures For example: A fit Longer in the ruck, McCartin at Full Forward, the REAL Nick Riewoldt playing, possibly a fit and firing Freeman on the wing, an extra tall defender etc.
So I think at least nine wins for the year is highly likely, and with fortunes favouring us, eleven wins is not out of the question. As for making the eight, who knows? Put it this way, I was convinced the Bulldogs would finish 18th last year and they finished the H & A season on fourteen wins and in 6th place.
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Even for all your points on Melbourne I would say the chances of beating them twice are very slim. One win would be a good effort. They just go so much deeper in the midfield. I would have us winning twice against Essendon and Carlton and somehow scrapping another 2 to 4 wins max against other sides. We aren't going to win interstate and we aren't going to beat many if any top 8 sides.
Our chances of beating Melbourne twice are very slim? At Etihad, where they've won one regular season game in about 10 years and haven't beaten us in longer than that?
If their midfield is so much better and deeper than ours, how come we beat them twice last year, including very comfortably the 2nd time around, at the MCG, where they're so much better than at Etihad? What have they added to their midfield in the meantime that puts them so far ahead of us all of a sudden?
I get that they might have Petracca this year (although if you include him, off a knee reco and another injury that badly hampered his preseason since Christmas, it's probably only fair that you add Freeman for us, who by then will have much of 3 preseasons under his belt and who has much greater natural fitness than Petracca- who has also only done about 1.5 preseasons) and now Oliver, but we likewise add Gresham to ours and the signs are very positive that all of Gilbert, Ross and Dunstan in particular are primed for much more significant roles in our midfield this year.
Their potential midfield options v ours, with the number of years they've played in the AFL in brackets for the youngest ones:
Jones - Steven
Vince - Armo
Viney - Joey
Tyson - Gilbo
Brayshaw (2) - Dunstan (3)
Vandenberg (2) - Ross (5)
Petracca (2) - Billings (3)
Oliver (1) - Acres (3)
Bugg (5) - Freeman (3)
Lamumba - Savage
Salem (3) - Newnes (5)
and if they have anyone else notable left that I've missed we still have Gresham, Sinclair and Lonie, who I expect will all see more midfield minutes this year, plus Roberton and Roo, who will probably both spend time on the wing this year.
So I'm really not seeing how they're any deeper there than us at all and a lot of their options that I've named there are just as untried or inexperienced in the midfield or at AFL level as ours are. We might have been very shallow in the midfield last year, but this year we'd be expecting to bat an awful lot deeper there, as the above list probably shows.
If their midfield is so much better and deeper than ours, how come we beat them twice last year, including very comfortably the 2nd time around, at the MCG, where they're so much better than at Etihad? What have they added to their midfield in the meantime that puts them so far ahead of us all of a sudden?
I get that they might have Petracca this year (although if you include him, off a knee reco and another injury that badly hampered his preseason since Christmas, it's probably only fair that you add Freeman for us, who by then will have much of 3 preseasons under his belt and who has much greater natural fitness than Petracca- who has also only done about 1.5 preseasons) and now Oliver, but we likewise add Gresham to ours and the signs are very positive that all of Gilbert, Ross and Dunstan in particular are primed for much more significant roles in our midfield this year.
Their potential midfield options v ours, with the number of years they've played in the AFL in brackets for the youngest ones:
Jones - Steven
Vince - Armo
Viney - Joey
Tyson - Gilbo
Brayshaw (2) - Dunstan (3)
Vandenberg (2) - Ross (5)
Petracca (2) - Billings (3)
Oliver (1) - Acres (3)
Bugg (5) - Freeman (3)
Lamumba - Savage
Salem (3) - Newnes (5)
and if they have anyone else notable left that I've missed we still have Gresham, Sinclair and Lonie, who I expect will all see more midfield minutes this year, plus Roberton and Roo, who will probably both spend time on the wing this year.
So I'm really not seeing how they're any deeper there than us at all and a lot of their options that I've named there are just as untried or inexperienced in the midfield or at AFL level as ours are. We might have been very shallow in the midfield last year, but this year we'd be expecting to bat an awful lot deeper there, as the above list probably shows.
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gringo2011
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I think lots of us got caught up in their preseason form. When you stack them together it doesn't sound as impressive. I think we are at the point we will probably knock off a team who disrespects us or even a couple. There is usually a player who does a Josh Bruce and bolts too. It will still be an enjoyable ride even if we don't go up the ladder too much higher.
Smoke_Me_AKipper
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Don't underestimate the lads to get up for Roo's milestone match in Round 2 either. Like we did for Lenny 2 seasons ago...can seriously see us getting over the Doggies early in the season....
SpannaMan
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I completely agree with you and when you put it like that it looks pretty favorable. However, what I think people see is this:
Tyson - Pick 2
Petracca - 2
Brayshaw - 3
Oliver - 3
Viney - Should have been top 5 pick
Salem - 9
Assuming the drafters know what they are doing, that is a lot of talent. Once you include Hogan, Weideman, McDonald and Gawn, people go "surely with all that talent they have to do something!"
When you look at ours:
Billings - Pick 3
Freeman - 10, but has not played a game yet (with some people thinking he never will)
Gresham - 18
Dunstan - 18 and had a poor season last year, this reinforced the opinion that he has a low ceiling
Acres - 19 and has not done much yet
Ross - 25 and hasn't shown much (at least for an outsider to notice)
Newnes - 37, but playing well above that
It does not scream the same amount of talent based on where they were drafted. While our senior players are better and our younger players are more experienced, there is (at least the appearance of) less young talent in the midfield.
I think it is a very naive way of looking at things, but I certainly understand it.
Yeah, don't get me wrong, I really rate Melbourne's young list and TBH if I was given the choice between their 24yo and under group and WB's 24yo and under group, I'd have to give it some very serious thought, I rate Melbourne's that highly. But you know what, our 24yo and under list ain't chopped liver either (8 first round picks in there and that doesn't even include Bruce, Lonie and Carlisle) and one thing we do have on that Melbourne list that I showed above is that most of our young group have a preseason or two up their sleeves on their Melbourne counterparts (that I listed) and that could be a big advantage this year, with rotations being capped at 90- which favours those who are fitter and have more miles in their legs.
So while say Oliver may end up having the better career than say Acres, Blake is in his all-important 3rd year (where so many take a big step forward) and has one full preseason under his belt (plus a couple of modified/partial ones), to Oliver's one shortened and modified one, which gives him a likely big fitness edge.
Similar story with Salem v Newnes, if Salem starts spending more time on the wing/midfield. Newnes is super-fit and has 5 preseasons under his belt, while Salem has just the 3.
Brayshaw v Dunstan. Brayshaw is a good chance to have the better career, but you know what, he averaged just 13 disposals per game last year, compared to Dunstan's 19 disposals in his first year (was going better than that until he injured his shoulder, which slowed his momentum) and Dunstan is now going into his 3rd year, while for all we know Brayshaw could have a bit of a dose of the "2nd year blues". It's not a good start that I don't think he's played a game so far.
I get while many are tipping Melbourne to be better this year and I've been on board that train since before most, but for the same reasons I'm expecting Melbourne to be better this year (all things being equal- if they lose Hogan for an extended period they're back to square 1) I'm expecting us to likewise be better (all things being equal). We may not have quite as much of the really top-end young talent as they have, but we do have a year or two's head-start on a lot of them, which is likely to count for a fair bit, with the rotations capped at 90.
One thing that will make it interesting is the respective draws. Melbourne are obviously chock full of confidence and their draw in the first 5 rounds is a hell of a lot softer than ours (a Cameron-less GWS at the MCG, followed by a likely still-to-jell Essendon in round 2), so they have a golden opportunity to get off to a bit of a flier and get some real momentum and confidence up, while we have a very challenging first 5 rounds- before meeting them in round 6. Our draw from round 6 onwards looks easier than theirs, but we'll want to have have pinched one (or more) of those first 5, or we may struggle to reel them in over the course of the season, especially if they take their momentum and run.
So while say Oliver may end up having the better career than say Acres, Blake is in his all-important 3rd year (where so many take a big step forward) and has one full preseason under his belt (plus a couple of modified/partial ones), to Oliver's one shortened and modified one, which gives him a likely big fitness edge.
Similar story with Salem v Newnes, if Salem starts spending more time on the wing/midfield. Newnes is super-fit and has 5 preseasons under his belt, while Salem has just the 3.
Brayshaw v Dunstan. Brayshaw is a good chance to have the better career, but you know what, he averaged just 13 disposals per game last year, compared to Dunstan's 19 disposals in his first year (was going better than that until he injured his shoulder, which slowed his momentum) and Dunstan is now going into his 3rd year, while for all we know Brayshaw could have a bit of a dose of the "2nd year blues". It's not a good start that I don't think he's played a game so far.
I get while many are tipping Melbourne to be better this year and I've been on board that train since before most, but for the same reasons I'm expecting Melbourne to be better this year (all things being equal- if they lose Hogan for an extended period they're back to square 1) I'm expecting us to likewise be better (all things being equal). We may not have quite as much of the really top-end young talent as they have, but we do have a year or two's head-start on a lot of them, which is likely to count for a fair bit, with the rotations capped at 90.
One thing that will make it interesting is the respective draws. Melbourne are obviously chock full of confidence and their draw in the first 5 rounds is a hell of a lot softer than ours (a Cameron-less GWS at the MCG, followed by a likely still-to-jell Essendon in round 2), so they have a golden opportunity to get off to a bit of a flier and get some real momentum and confidence up, while we have a very challenging first 5 rounds- before meeting them in round 6. Our draw from round 6 onwards looks easier than theirs, but we'll want to have have pinched one (or more) of those first 5, or we may struggle to reel them in over the course of the season, especially if they take their momentum and run.
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How impressive were Melbourne's wins? Their NAB 2 win was against a Western Bulldogs side that was apparently missing 14 of their best 22 and was virtually a creche, who had played about 100 games between them and it took Melbourne's far stronger team until about half way through the last quarter to finally get ahead of them. Probably just through the ultra-young Bulldogs group- who were 18 points up at 3/4 time, but scored just one point in the last- tiring.
Then, if they were suddenly way better than us, they would have beaten us by 50 or more points, given the huge match-fitness edge they had over us. Our team looked knackered by the 3rd quarter (as Brisbane's apparently did in their game on the weekend), while they were full of run pretty much to the end of the game. Both teams played a very similar style of footy, but we just weren't fit enough to run it out of defence for as long as they were, or to run with them when they ran it out of our forward line in the 2nd half (I kept on looking back into our forward 50 and seeing 6 of our blokes standing there, unable to chase, as all their back 6 + extras charged forward).
I think an awful lot is being taken from NAB games, which everyone usually says is fraught with danger. The momentum they get from simply winning may propel them forward, but just on how they played in those last two games I wouldn't be writing a movie about them, that's for sure.
They and us have been separated by just half a game and % in the last two seasons and looking at the respective teams and their draws (where theirs on paper is easier to start with, but ours looks easier overall), I'm certainly not seeing any obvious reason why that will be much different at all this year, either way (injuries, etc. depending). As shown above, the midfield's are about level, they have Hogan, Watts and Garlett leading their forward line, while we have Riewoldt, Bruce and Billings leading ours and the backlines are pretty similar. Both teams tackle heavily and both seemed to be trying to play an almost identical way last weekend, especially out of the backline. They just had the fitness to do it all well for a lot longer.
Yet a read through the "where will your team finish" thread on the main board sees most who support Melbourne tipping themselves to finish between about 7th and 10th, while most on here seem to be tipping us to win between 5 and 7 games (which would put us about 14th/15th)- which, given what looks to be an easier draw, means we'll have pretty much gone backwards, so I find our pessimism in comparison to be intriguing.
It wasn't just Bruce last year but Roberton also went from playing VFL in 2014 to coming top 7 in our B&F and Armo went up a couple of notches as well and this year we have a whopping 25 or so who were 23yo or younger at the start of the year, so there is HUGE scope for improvement amongst that group and every chance there will be another Bruce/Roberton or three.
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- Jan 10, 2011
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It's just what I think. I think we will win6 to 8 and they will win 8 to 10 and based on that I have us maybe winning one against them. I never pick 196 winners and I'm guessing you don't either so it's just an opinion
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Fair enough, so what about your comment that they "just go so much deeper in the midfield"? Am I missing something there, or what, as I came up with more names for our midfield rotations (guts and wings) than I did for theirs and most of ours have more experience or years in the system under their belts, which is likely to count for lot, with the interchange cap. Even last weekend we beat them in the clearances and comfortably in the hitouts.
- Jan 10, 2011
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Imo I still rate their midfield better than ours only because I don't rate to many inside mids. You could easily be right but then again it's only an opinion. By the way I rate hit outs as much as my sex life at the moment. Neither have a huge effect on the outcome
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Don't know where we'll end up at the end of season but I reckon we're a good chance of being 3 and 3 after 6 rounds.
Footscray - Roo's game
GWS - talented but inconsistent
Melbourne - don't be fooled by the practice match our senior guys were going for their first run around the park
All at Etihad stadium
Footscray - Roo's game
GWS - talented but inconsistent
Melbourne - don't be fooled by the practice match our senior guys were going for their first run around the park
All at Etihad stadium
Cornish
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I will keep it simple
Gut feeling 12th, and alot of improvement all around the ground.
A good draft at the end of the season and more games into Mc Paddy etc could see us in the 8 next year.
We still have alot of work to do, but the signs are there.
Gut feeling 12th, and alot of improvement all around the ground.
A good draft at the end of the season and more games into Mc Paddy etc could see us in the 8 next year.
We still have alot of work to do, but the signs are there.
this time next week i will give my insight as i will be heading back to adelaide airport with hopefully a positive outcome though its going to be hard to keep emotion out of it for obvious reasons.
