Which clubs are in the most trouble age profile wise? - 2024 edition

[Gavin Excell]

Is it possible having an older list = success?

 

[M Malice]

2. Brisbane (9) - Rich
32+ - Zorko
29-32 – Lyons, Lester, Neale, Fort, McCarthy, Danniher, Cameron, McInerney
27-29 – Gardiner, McKenna
25-27 – Andrews, Dunkley, Doedee, Joyce, Hipwood, Ah-Chee, Ryan, Berry, McCluggage
23-25 – Starcevich, Answerth, Bailey, Payne, Rayner, Madden, Coleman
21-23 – Prior, Robertson
Under 21 – Sharp, Lohmann, Tunstill, Wilmot, Fletcher, Ashcroft
________________________________________________________

IMO we are in pretty good shape to have a couple more years in top4/flag contention. In the 27 years of age and under category there are 16 best 22 players.

Of the older best 22 players Zorko is no longer an essential for success IMO, Daniher, Cameron and McInerney are 29(McCarthy only just turned 30) so still at least 2 years left. Lachie Neale

9

Lachie Neale

Age

30

Ht

178cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.0

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

15.5

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.7

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

28.3

5star

K

13.9

5star

HB

14.4

5star

M

4.6

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

7.4

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

is 30 but is an extremely professional athlete, confident he has at least 2 years left as well.

To extend that couple of years flag window out we need to get in some key and small forwards.

 

[Gavin Excell]

2. Brisbane (9) - Rich
32+ - Zorko
29-32 – Lyons, Lester, Neale, Fort, McCarthy, Danniher, Cameron, McInerney
27-29 – Gardiner, McKenna
25-27 – Andrews, Dunkley, Doedee, Joyce, Hipwood, Ah-Chee, Ryan, Berry, McCluggage
23-25 – Starcevich, Answerth, Bailey, Payne, Rayner, Madden, Coleman
21-23 – Prior, Robertson
Under 21 – Sharp, Lohmann, Tunstill, Wilmot, Fletcher, Ashcroft
________________________________________________________

IMO we are in pretty good shape to have a couple more years in top4/flag contention. In the 27 years of age and under category there are 16 best 22 players.

Of the older best 22 players Zorko is no longer an essential for success IMO, Daniher, Cameron and McInerney are 29(McCarthy only just turned 30) so still at least 2 years left. Lachie Neale is 30 but is an extremely professional athlete, confident he has at least 2 years left as well.

To extend that couple of years flag window out we need to get in some key and small forwards.

Yes just need to win one

 

[M Malice]

Yes just need to win one

Yes, they are bloody hard to win, your Cats won 3 in quick succession and then had 11 years of being right up the top of the ladder in contention before winning another one.

I could live on the glory of winning 1 for a number of years(our 3peat glory lasted a while), sitting at the MCG for the few minutes after the final siren this season was very sad, got over it reasonably quickly though, you must enjoy the journey, you're going to spend a lot of time unhappy if the only measure of success is a flag.

 

[Footy Smarts]

2. Brisbane (9) - Rich
32+ - Zorko
29-32 – Lyons, Lester, Neale, Fort, McCarthy, Danniher, Cameron, McInerney
27-29 – Gardiner, McKenna
25-27 – Andrews, Dunkley, Doedee, Joyce, Hipwood, Ah-Chee, Ryan, Berry, McCluggage
23-25 – Starcevich, Answerth, Bailey, Payne, Rayner, Madden, Coleman
21-23 – Prior, Robertson
Under 21 – Sharp, Lohmann, Tunstill, Wilmot, Fletcher, Ashcroft
________________________________________________________

IMO we are in pretty good shape to have a couple more years in top4/flag contention. In the 27 years of age and under category there are 16 best 22 players.

Of the older best 22 players Zorko is no longer an essential for success IMO, Daniher, Cameron and McInerney are 29(McCarthy only just turned 30) so still at least 2 years left. Lachie Neale is 30 but is an extremely professional athlete, confident he has at least 2 years left as well.

To extend that couple of years flag window out we need to get in some key and small forwards.

It's the only list with dynasty potential I think.

I wonder if it's like Hawthorn who were being accused of being chokers after 2009-2012 without a flag. People forget Clarkson was under some pressure and accused of underperforming. If they hadn't nabbed the 08 flag before their peak he might well have been sacked.

Brisbane look a bit similar in that they've found a lot of ways to lose finals but they still look to have 3 or more good seasons in them.

 

[master bate]

Not worried about Melbourne's age. Only 3 over 29 who matter in May, Gawn and Viney. It's a big 3 but the midfield has options and rucks can be replaced. Just need Max firing in finals.

The bigger concern I have is a lot of 27-29 but not many 23-26. Will have to replace guys like May with free agents or trade ins which is entirely doable but would be a lot easier if we were one of those destination clubs who can just land whoever they want when they want.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

To be fair I think back in 2014 North won the thread, and then it shifted to Hawthorn for a few years in 2015 and then from 2018 onwards it was Geelong

How many times has the premiers won this thread?? I assume 2011 and 2022??

 

[Elmer_Judd]

It's the only list with dynasty potential I think.

I wonder if it's like Hawthorn who were being accused of being chokers after 2009-2012 without a flag. People forget Clarkson was under some pressure and accused of underperforming. If they hadn't nabbed the 08 flag before their peak he might well have been sacked.

Brisbane look a bit similar in that they've found a lot of ways to lose finals but they still look to have 3 or more good seasons in them.

I can't see this Lions group/list winning more than one flag. But then again I thought the Dees would have won a couple more flags since their drought breaking triumph a few years ago, so anything is possible.

 

[Elmer_Judd]

How many times has the premiers won this thread?? I assume 2011 and 2022??

A lot of people (including myself) wrote the Pies off going into season 2023, so probably need to include them in that category.

 

[The Nostradamus]

Can you also post the order from most over 29 to least?

 

[Whiskers]

The Cats are cooked!! The cliff has finally come. Their midfield is a disaster and they are a Jeremy Cameron injury away from finishing bottom 4 next season.

You’ll be disappointed.
We aren’t coming into 2024 with a premiership hangover and no pre season. We aren’t the hunted and we’re not likely to be as ravaged by injury.

Having a proper pre season is extremely useful. Guthrie will be back as will Blicavs, Holmes will be better. We weren’t missing finals until Blicavs went out of the side, this is despite everything that was going against us. We now also have a good fixture.

Jeremy Cameron did play most of 2023 injured. Was nowhere near his best after a flying start. Won’t be hard for him to have a better season in 2024. All things being even, we aren’t copping what we did last year.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Yes it seems like the end is finally here, but it's impossible to dunk on the Cats after they won the flag last year. Everything was essentially vindicated in that moment.

 

[Engimal v3]

Swans and Hawks both cooked

 

[Obeanie1]

Back by no demand, here is my annual thread on which club is in the most trouble from an age profile perspective.

The rules are in this thread that I have only included players who have played 5 or more games, so no draftees get included as we need at least some body of work in order to see if this player is actually going to help their club replace their aging players.

Also every other time I have done this thread I have ordered the teams in the amount of players they have over 29, but recently I have decided to instead order them based on the ladder of the 2023 season, so instead we can see which teams list profile looks particularly poor for where they finished in the 2023 season.

Everyone can have 3 selections on which clubs they think is in the worst position age profile wise, thinking about what players each team lost since the end of the 2023 season too.

I also included players that each team has lost from last years 32+ category, so players that will also likely need replacing.


1. Collingwood (9)
32+ - Pendlebury, Howe, Sidebottom, Cox
29-32 – Elliott, Mihocek, Mitchell, Hoskin-Elliott, Crisp
27-29 – McStay, Cameron, Moore, De-Goey, Markov, Maynard, Frampton
25-27 – Noble, Jonhnson, Schultz, Lipinski, J.Daicos
23-25 – Kreuger, Carmichael, Murphy, Quaynor, Hill
21-23 – McCreedy, Macrae
Under 21 – McInness, N.Daicos


2. Brisbane (9) - Rich
32+ - Zorko
29-32 – Lyons, Lester, Neale, Fort, McCarthy, Danniher, Cameron, McInerney
27-29 – Gardiner, McKenna
25-27 – Andrews, Dunkley, Doedee, Joyce, Hipwood, Ah-Chee, Ryan, Berry, McCluggage
23-25 – Starcevich, Answerth, Bailey, Payne, Rayner, Madden, Coleman
21-23 – Prior, Robertson
Under 21 – Sharp, Lohmann, Tunstill, Wilmot, Fletcher, Ashcroft


3. Port Adelaide (6) - Jonas
32+ - Boak, Dixon
29-32 – McKenzie, Clurey, Aliir, Wines
27-29 – Rioli, Byrne-Jones, Finlayson, Soldo
25-27 – Burton, Houston, Narkle, Powell-Pepper, Sweet, Ratugolea, Zerk-Thather, Drew, Marshall
23-25 – Farrell, Rozee, Butters
21-23 – McEntee, Williams, Evans, Georgiades, Mead, Bergman, Lord, Jones
Under 21 – Horne-Francis, Burgoyne


4. Melbourne (7) - Hibberd
32+ - Melksham
29-32 – Gawn, May, McDonald, Brown, Tomlinson, Viney
27-29 – Hunter, McAdam, Salem, Billings, Harmes, Petracca, Brayshaw, Neal-Bullen, Langdon, Smith, Lever, Hore
25-27 – Fritsch, Oliver, Schache
23-25 – Fullarton, Petty, Spargo, Chandler, Sparrow
21-23 – Pickett, Rivers, Laurie, Bowey
Under 21 – Van-Rooyen, McVee


5. Carlton (5) - Curnow
32+ -
29-32 – Newman, Docherty, Saad, Williams, McGovern
27-29 – Martin, Cripps, Fantasia, Acres, Hewett, Pittonet, S.Durdin
25-27 – Marchbank, Cincotta, C.Curnow, Owies, Cunningham, Kennedy, Weitering, Silvagni, McKay, Boyd
23-25 – Young, Fogarty, De-Konnig, Cerra, Cottrell, Walsh
21-23 – Kemp, C.Durdin, Hollands
Under 21 – Carroll, Motlop, Cowan


6. St Kilda (8)
32+ - Campbell
29-32 – Ross, Webster, Hill, Wood, Crouch, Membrey, Sinclair
27-29 – Jones, Marshall, Steele, Hayes, Wilkie, Howard, Butler, Cordy
25-27 – Bonner, Battle Paton
23-25 – Higgins, Clark, Dow, Stocker, King, Sharma
21-23 – Byrnes, Henry
Under 21 – Wanganeen-Milera, Windhager, Owens, Caminiti, Phillopou


7. GWS (7) - Davis
32+ - Ward, Keefee
29-32 – Haynes, Kennedy, Greene, Coniglio, Whitfield
27-29 – Kelly, Hogan, Preuss, Himmelberg
25-27 – Buckley, Wehr, Cumming
23-25 – Perryman, Daniels, Taylor, Briggs, Riccardi, Bedford, O'Halloran, Idun, Brown, Peatling
21-23 – Green, Ash, Stone
Under 21 – Angwin, Callaghan, Hamilton, Fahey, Cadman, Rowston


8. Sydney (9) - Franklin, Hickey
32+ - Reid, Rampe
29-32 – Parker, Hamling, Fox, Lloyd, Adams, Cunningham, Grundy
27-29 – Heeney, Papley, Melican
25-27 – Mills, Francis, Ladhams, Florent, Hayward
23-25 – McLean, Amartey, Wicks, McCartin, Blakey, McInerney, Rowbottom
21-23 – Jordan, Ch.Warner, Campbell, McDonald, Gulden
Under 21 – Roberts, Sheldrick


9. Western Bulldogs (8)
32+ - Jones, Duryea
29-32 – Keath, Liberatore, Johannisen, Lobb, Treloar, Macrare
27-29 – Scott, Bontempelli, Daniel, Dale
25-27 – Gardner, English, Williams, Bramble, Baker
23-25 – Vandermeer, Richards, Coffield, Naughton, Khamis, West
21-23 – Smith, Weightman, Garcia, Cleary, Ugle-Hagan, O'Donnell, Poulter
Under 21 – Jones, Darcy


10. Adelaide (4)
32+ - Sloane, Walker
29-32 – Smith, Laird
27-29 – Crouch, O'Brien, Strachan, Burgess
25-27 – Keays, Dawson, Milera, Himmelberg, Hinge
23-25 – Murphy, Fogarty, Butts, Jones, Sholl, Keane, Rankine, McHenry
21-23 – Murray, Schoenberg, Worrell, Gollant, Berry, Parnell, Pedlar, Thilthorpe, Cook
Under 21 – Soligo, Rachele, Micalanney


11. Essendon (5)
32+ - Goldstein
29-32 – Heppell, Shiel, Stringer, Hind
27-29 – Kelly, Merrett, Laverde, Wright
25-27 – Langford, Weilderman, Parish, Guelfi, Gresham, Redman, McKay, Settterfield, McGrath, Draper, Ridley
23-25 – Duursma, Caldwell
21-23 – Jones, Martin, Durham, Bryan, Cox, Reid, Perkins, Baldwin, Menzie
Under 21 – Hobbs, Wanganeen, A.Davey


12. Geelong (11) - Smith, Ceglar
32+ - Hawkins, Tuohy, Dangerfield, Stanley, Blicavas, Rohan, Duncan
29-32 – C.Guthrie, Stewart, Cameron, Bews
27-29 – Kolodjashnig, Atkins
25-27 – O'Connor, Bowes, Parfitt, Z.Guthrie, Close, Henry, Stengle
23-25 – Miers, Mullin
21-23 – De-Koning, Jeka, Bruhn, Neale, O.Henry, Holmes
Under 21 – Dempey, Knevitt


13. Richmond (9) - Reiwoldt, Tarrant, Cotchin
32+ - Martin, Grimes
29-32 – Pickett, Prestia, Lynch, Broad, Mcintosh, Vlastuin, Nankervis
27-29 – Short
25-27 – Hopper, D.Rioli, Baker, Taranto, Graham, Young
23-25 – Bolton, Miller, Balta, Mansell, Koschitzke, Ross
21-23 – Ryan, Cumberland, Dow, Ralphsmith, M.Rioli
Under 21 – Sonsie, Banks, Gibcus, Clarke


14. Fremantle (4)
32+ - Walters, Fyfe
29-32 – Taberner, O'Meara
27-29 – Hughes, Pearce, Aish, Ryan, McDonald, Corbett, Switkowski
25-27 – Wagner, Banfield, Darcy, Cox, Brodie
23-25 – Brayshaw, Sturt, Frederick, Jordan,
21-23 – Serong, Young, Jackson, Chapman, O'Driscoll, Treacy, Walker
Under 21 – Johnson, Amiss, Eramus


15. Gold Coast (9)
32+ - Casboult
29-32 – Day, Witts, Swallow, Ellis, Sexton, Collins, Atkins, Lemmens
27-29 – Tsitas, Holman, Miller, Weller
25-27 – Farrar, Long, Fiorini, Macpherson, Ainsworth
23-25 – Ballard, Powell, Berry, King, Lukosius, Graham
21-23 – Anderson, Rosas, Rowell, Flanders, Mahony, Oea, Jeffrey, Davies
Under 21 – Andew, Humphrey


16. Hawthorn (4)
32+ - Breust, Gunston
29-32 – Wingard, Frost
27-29 – Sicily, Impey, Amon
25-27 – Chol, Hardwick Meek, Nash, Scrimshaw, Lewis, Reeves, Morrison
23-25 – Worpel, Jiath, Moore, Blanck
21-23 – Stephens, Maginness, Day, Newcombe, Grainger-Barras
Under 21 – Ginnivan, C.MacDonald, Butler, Serong, Ramsden, D'Ambrosio, Ward, Mackenzie, Weddle


17. North Melbourne (3) - Goldstein, Hall, Zeiball
32+ - Shiels
29-32 – Greenward, Corr
27-29 – McDonald
25-27 – Tucker, Simpkin, Logue, Zurhaar, Larkey, Fisher, Dawson
23-25 – Stephenson, Zerri, Davies-Uniacke, Coleman-Jones, , Thomas, Taylor, Scott
21-23 – Stephens, Comben, Powell, Lazzaro, Phillips, Ford
Under 21 – Archer, Bergman, Curtis, Goater, Wardlaw, Sheezel


18. West Coast (6) - Hurn, Naitanui, Shuey
32+ -
29-32 – McGovern, Cripps, Darling, Gaff, Yeo, Kelly
27-29 – Hunt, Sheed, Barrass, Ryan
25-27 – Duggan, Cole, Flynn, Rotham, Watterman, Witherden, Jones
23-25 – Allen, Petruccelle, Williams, Jamieson, H.Edwards,
21-23 – L.Edwards, Trew, Brockman
Under 21 – Culley, Hough, Chesser, Bazzo, Williams, Hewett, Long, Maric, Ginbey

Also just to say, I got all these names and ages off footywire, so if something is wrong, just tell me and I will correct it as I know footywire is not always the most accurate, them sometimes adding players that don't exist, ages that are very wrong or games that are wrong. Not all the time, but it happens.

So what are the 3 clubs that you think are in the worst list position from an age perspective?

Was listening to the Eagles press conference announcing the new joint captains. Simo said it twice and one of the skippers repeated it. Eagles currently have 22 players under 21, half the list.

Obviously inclusing this years group.

You only had 7 listed?

 

[rye]

Not worried about Melbourne's age. Only 3 over 29 who matter in May, Gawn and Viney. It's a big 3 but the midfield has options and rucks can be replaced. Just need Max firing in finals.

The bigger concern I have is a lot of 27-29 but not many 23-26. Will have to replace guys like May with free agents or trade ins which is entirely doable but would be a lot easier if we were one of those destination clubs who can just land whoever they want when they want.

gawn and may are easily your two most important structural pieces though.

rucks can be replaced but rucks that do what gawn does around the ground are once in a generation. gawns ability to cover space and get into positions where he actively disrupts opposition ball movement (especially kicks down the line) is second to none.

may playing at a high level is what enables your defensive game plan to really flourish. im unsure as to the quality of developing key defenders at casey, but if this years trade and free agency period is anything to go by the chances of melbourne finding a similar quality key defender to replace may whilst petracca / oliver are still in their primes seems slim.

 

[Obeanie1]

Swans and Hawks both cooked

North havent made it into the oven yet.

 

[The Nostradamus]

North havent made it into the oven yet.

Eagles don’t even have an oven

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

It's the only list with dynasty potential I think.

I wonder if it's like Hawthorn who were being accused of being chokers after 2009-2012 without a flag. People forget Clarkson was under some pressure and accused of underperforming. If they hadn't nabbed the 08 flag before their peak he might well have been sacked.

Brisbane look a bit similar in that they've found a lot of ways to lose finals but they still look to have 3 or more good seasons in them.

We weren't the out and out best side till 2012 and that loss drove the team to the threepeat make no mistake. Clarko didn't have to change alot except trade for Brian Lake. The rest of the team were self driven to make a statement about what they wanted to be known for. It nearly went belly up in the 2013 Prelim but once we found a way to win that there was no stopping us.

 

[Obeanie1]

How many times has the premiers won this thread?? I assume 2011 and 2022??

It depends on the nature of the question.

Super young teams dont win flags. So if gou goal is to win a flag rhis year your in trouble if you dont have enough older mature types.

Too many older types who cant get on the park, wont win a flag and arent byilding towards one.

The ability for a club to trade in mature ready made players also a major factor.

So its about balance and what the goal is the current year.

 

[Partridge]

Is it possible having an older list = success?

As long as the list isn't too old, I'd say pretty close. You certainly need a level of maturity and bigger bodies. That seems pretty clear now.

 

[SC_Power]

Pretty sure Geelong made this thread redundant over the last decade, but anyways...

So Port's under 29 team would look like (can swap players into different positions obviously)

F Georgiades, Marshall, Rioli
HF Byrne-Jones, Finlayson, Powell-Pepper
M Houston, Horne-Francis, Bergman
HB Jones, Zerk-Thatcher, Farrell
B Williams, Ratugolea, Burton
R Soldo, Rozee, Butters, Drew
I Sweet, Lord, Narkle, Drew
E McEntee, Evans, Mead, Burgoyne

Should be good for 2-3 more losing Prelims at least.
Note I haven't listed Hinkley as he's been coach for a thousand years.
Late Edit, not just 22 not 23.

Over 29 not included: Boak, Dixon, McKenzie, Clurey, Aliir, Wines

 

[Godzke]

11. Essendon (5)
32+ - Goldstein
29-32 – Heppell, Shiel, Stringer, Hind
27-29 – Kelly, Merrett, Laverde, Wright
25-27 – Langford, Weilderman, Parish, Guelfi, Gresham, Redman, McKay, Settterfield, McGrath, Draper, Ridley
23-25 – Duursma, Caldwell
21-23 – Jones, Martin, Durham, Bryan, Cox, Reid, Perkins, Baldwin, Menzie
Under 21 – Hobbs, Wanganeen, A.Davey

Goldstein recruited as cover/development for Draper and Bryan

Heppell had a decent year but not longer a key member of the back half
Hind average last year and been slowing down for a while. Archie Roberts and LL were drafted as their long term replacements.

Shiel a no-show, looking forward to offloading him next year and freeing up cap space for a $1m FA

Stringer struggling to get on the park, with Nate Caddy drafted as his long term replacement.

so no issues with replacing aging players, just needing to extract more from those in their prime and developing the juniors

 

[Godzke]

Pretty sure Geelong made this thread redundant over the last decade, but anyways...

So Port's under 29 team would look like (can swap players into different positions obviously)

F Georgiades, Marshall, Rioli
HF Byrne-Jones, Finlayson, Powell-Pepper
M Houston, Horne-Francis, Bergman
HB Jones, Zerk-Thatcher, Farrell
B Williams, Ratugolea, Burton
R Soldo, Rozee, Butters, Drew
I Sweet, Lord, Narkle, Burgoyne
E McEntee, Evans, Mead

Should be good for 2-3 more losing Prelims at least.
Note I haven't listed Hinkley as he's been coach for a thousand years.

Over 29 not included: Boak, Dixon, McKenzie, Clurey, Aliir, Wines

well ... if you had 19 on the park, then yes I guess it should be competitive for a while to come

 

[The 747]

Every year this biased thread.

Discriminatory.

 

[SC_Power]

well ... if you had 19 on the park, then yes I guess it should be competitive for a while to come

Yeah good spot, with 4 hyphenated names I lost count, anyone would think it was the Melbourne FC board.