Which clubs are in the most trouble age profile wise? - 2024 edition

Which clubs are in the most trouble age profile wise?


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Feb 28, 2007
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Back by no demand, here is my annual thread on which club is in the most trouble from an age profile perspective.

The rules are in this thread that I have only included players who have played 5 or more games, so no draftees get included as we need at least some body of work in order to see if this player is actually going to help their club replace their aging players.

Also every other time I have done this thread I have ordered the teams in the amount of players they have over 29, but recently I have decided to instead order them based on the ladder of the 2023 season, so instead we can see which teams list profile looks particularly poor for where they finished in the 2023 season.

Everyone can have 3 selections on which clubs they think is in the worst position age profile wise, thinking about what players each team lost since the end of the 2023 season too.

I also included players that each team has lost from last years 32+ category, so players that will also likely need replacing.


1. Collingwood (9)
32+ - Pendlebury, Howe, Sidebottom, Cox
29-32 – Elliott, Mihocek, Mitchell, Hoskin-Elliott, Crisp

27-29 – McStay, Cameron, Moore, De-Goey, Markov, Maynard, Frampton
25-27 – Noble, Jonhnson, Schultz, Lipinski, J.Daicos
23-25 – Kreuger, Carmichael, Murphy, Quaynor, Hill
21-23 – McCreedy, Macrae
Under 21 – McInness, N.Daicos



2. Brisbane (9) - Rich
32+ - Zorko
29-32 – Lyons, Lester, Neale, Fort, McCarthy, Danniher, Cameron, McInerney

27-29 – Gardiner, McKenna
25-27 – Andrews, Dunkley, Doedee, Joyce, Hipwood, Ah-Chee, Ryan, Berry, McCluggage
23-25 – Starcevich, Answerth, Bailey, Payne, Rayner, Madden, Coleman
21-23 – Prior, Robertson
Under 21 – Sharp, Lohmann, Tunstill, Wilmot, Fletcher, Ashcroft



3. Port Adelaide (6) - Jonas
32+ - Boak, Dixon
29-32 – McKenzie, Clurey, Aliir, Wines

27-29 – Rioli, Byrne-Jones, Finlayson, Soldo
25-27 – Burton, Houston, Narkle, Powell-Pepper, Sweet, Ratugolea, Zerk-Thather, Drew, Marshall
23-25 – Farrell, Rozee, Butters
21-23 – McEntee, Williams, Evans, Georgiades, Mead, Bergman, Lord, Jones
Under 21 – Horne-Francis, Burgoyne



4. Melbourne (7) - Hibberd
32+ - Melksham
29-32 – Gawn, May, McDonald, Brown, Tomlinson, Viney

27-29 – Hunter, McAdam, Salem, Billings, Harmes, Petracca, Brayshaw, Neal-Bullen, Langdon, Smith, Lever, Hore
25-27 – Fritsch, Oliver, Schache
23-25 – Fullarton, Petty, Spargo, Chandler, Sparrow
21-23 – Pickett, Rivers, Laurie, Bowey
Under 21 – Van-Rooyen, McVee



5. Carlton (5) - Curnow
32+ -
29-32 – Newman, Docherty, Saad, Williams, McGovern

27-29 – Martin, Cripps, Fantasia, Acres, Hewett, Pittonet, S.Durdin
25-27 – Marchbank, Cincotta, C.Curnow, Owies, Cunningham, Kennedy, Weitering, Silvagni, McKay, Boyd
23-25 – Young, Fogarty, De-Konnig, Cerra, Cottrell, Walsh
21-23 – Kemp, C.Durdin, Hollands
Under 21 – Carroll, Motlop, Cowan



6. St Kilda (8)
32+ - Campbell
29-32 – Ross, Webster, Hill, Wood, Crouch, Membrey, Sinclair

27-29 – Jones, Marshall, Steele, Hayes, Wilkie, Howard, Butler, Cordy
25-27 – Bonner, Battle Paton
23-25 – Higgins, Clark, Dow, Stocker, King, Sharma
21-23 – Byrnes, Henry
Under 21 – Wanganeen-Milera, Windhager, Owens, Caminiti, Phillopou



7. GWS (7) - Davis
32+ - Ward, Keefee
29-32 – Haynes, Kennedy, Greene, Coniglio, Whitfield

27-29 – Kelly, Hogan, Preuss, Himmelberg
25-27 – Buckley, Wehr, Cumming
23-25 – Perryman, Daniels, Taylor, Briggs, Riccardi, Bedford, O'Halloran, Idun, Brown, Peatling
21-23 – Green, Ash, Stone
Under 21 – Angwin, Callaghan, Hamilton, Fahey, Cadman, Rowston



8. Sydney (9) - Franklin, Hickey
32+ - Reid, Rampe
29-32 – Parker, Hamling, Fox, Lloyd, Adams, Cunningham, Grundy

27-29 – Heeney, Papley, Melican
25-27 – Mills, Francis, Ladhams, Florent, Hayward
23-25 – McLean, Amartey, Wicks, McCartin, Blakey, McInerney, Rowbottom
21-23 – Jordan, Ch.Warner, Campbell, McDonald, Gulden
Under 21 – Roberts, Sheldrick



9. Western Bulldogs (8)
32+ - Jones, Duryea
29-32 – Keath, Liberatore, Johannisen, Lobb, Treloar, Macrare

27-29 – Scott, Bontempelli, Daniel, Dale
25-27 – Gardner, English, Williams, Bramble, Baker
23-25 – Vandermeer, Richards, Coffield, Naughton, Khamis, West
21-23 – Smith, Weightman, Garcia, Cleary, Ugle-Hagan, O'Donnell, Poulter
Under 21 – Jones, Darcy



10. Adelaide (4)
32+ - Sloane, Walker
29-32 – Smith, Laird

27-29 – Crouch, O'Brien, Strachan, Burgess
25-27 – Keays, Dawson, Milera, Himmelberg, Hinge
23-25 – Murphy, Fogarty, Butts, Jones, Sholl, Keane, Rankine, McHenry
21-23 – Murray, Schoenberg, Worrell, Gollant, Berry, Parnell, Pedlar, Thilthorpe, Cook
Under 21 – Soligo, Rachele, Micalanney



11. Essendon (5)
32+ - Goldstein
29-32 – Heppell, Shiel, Stringer, Hind

27-29 – Kelly, Merrett, Laverde, Wright
25-27 – Langford, Weilderman, Parish, Guelfi, Gresham, Redman, McKay, Settterfield, McGrath, Draper, Ridley
23-25 – Duursma, Caldwell
21-23 – Jones, Martin, Durham, Bryan, Cox, Reid, Perkins, Baldwin, Menzie
Under 21 – Hobbs, Wanganeen, A.Davey



12. Geelong (11) - Smith, Ceglar
32+ - Hawkins, Tuohy, Dangerfield, Stanley, Blicavas, Rohan, Duncan
29-32 – C.Guthrie, Stewart, Cameron, Bews

27-29 – Kolodjashnig, Atkins
25-27 – O'Connor, Bowes, Parfitt, Z.Guthrie, Close, Henry, Stengle
23-25 – Miers, Mullin
21-23 – De-Koning, Jeka, Bruhn, Neale, O.Henry, Holmes
Under 21 – Dempey, Knevitt



13. Richmond (9) - Reiwoldt, Tarrant, Cotchin
32+ - Martin, Grimes
29-32 – Pickett, Prestia, Lynch, Broad, Mcintosh, Vlastuin, Nankervis

27-29 – Short
25-27 – Hopper, D.Rioli, Baker, Taranto, Graham, Young
23-25 – Bolton, Miller, Balta, Mansell, Koschitzke, Ross
21-23 – Ryan, Cumberland, Dow, Ralphsmith, M.Rioli
Under 21 – Sonsie, Banks, Gibcus, Clarke



14. Fremantle (4)
32+ - Walters, Fyfe
29-32 – Taberner, O'Meara

27-29 – Hughes, Pearce, Aish, Ryan, McDonald, Corbett, Switkowski
25-27 – Wagner, Banfield, Darcy, Cox, Brodie
23-25 – Brayshaw, Sturt, Frederick, Jordan,
21-23 – Serong, Young, Jackson, Chapman, O'Driscoll, Treacy, Walker
Under 21 – Johnson, Amiss, Eramus



15. Gold Coast (9)
32+ - Casboult
29-32 – Day, Witts, Swallow, Ellis, Sexton, Collins, Atkins, Lemmens

27-29 – Tsitas, Holman, Miller, Weller
25-27 – Farrar, Long, Fiorini, Macpherson, Ainsworth
23-25 – Ballard, Powell, Berry, King, Lukosius, Graham
21-23 – Anderson, Rosas, Rowell, Flanders, Mahony, Oea, Jeffrey, Davies
Under 21 – Andew, Humphrey



16. Hawthorn (4)
32+ - Breust, Gunston
29-32 – Wingard, Frost

27-29 – Sicily, Impey, Amon
25-27 – Chol, Hardwick Meek, Nash, Scrimshaw, Lewis, Reeves, Morrison
23-25 – Worpel, Jiath, Moore, Blanck
21-23 – Stephens, Maginness, Day, Newcombe, Grainger-Barras
Under 21 – Ginnivan, C.MacDonald, Butler, Serong, Ramsden, D'Ambrosio, Ward, Mackenzie, Weddle



17. North Melbourne (3) - Goldstein, Hall, Zeiball
32+ - Shiels
29-32 – Greenward, Corr

27-29 – McDonald
25-27 – Tucker, Simpkin, Logue, Zurhaar, Larkey, Fisher, Dawson
23-25 – Stephenson, Zerri, Davies-Uniacke, Coleman-Jones, , Thomas, Taylor, Scott
21-23 – Stephens, Comben, Powell, Lazzaro, Phillips, Ford
Under 21 – Archer, Bergman, Curtis, Goater, Wardlaw, Sheezel



18. West Coast (6) - Hurn, Naitanui, Shuey
32+ -
29-32 – McGovern, Cripps, Darling, Gaff, Yeo, Kelly

27-29 – Hunt, Sheed, Barrass, Ryan
25-27 – Duggan, Cole, Flynn, Rotham, Watterman, Witherden, Jones
23-25 – Allen, Petruccelle, Williams, Jamieson, H.Edwards,
21-23 – L.Edwards, Trew, Brockman
Under 21 – Culley, Hough, Chesser, Bazzo, Williams, Hewett, Long, Maric, Ginbey


Also just to say, I got all these names and ages off footywire, so if something is wrong, just tell me and I will correct it as I know footywire is not always the most accurate, them sometimes adding players that don't exist, ages that are very wrong or games that are wrong. Not all the time, but it happens.

So what are the 3 clubs that you think are in the worst list position from an age perspective?
 

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To be fair I think back in 2014 North won the thread, and then it shifted to Hawthorn for a few years in 2015 and then from 2018 onwards it was Geelong :p
2014 Geelong would've been a good shout though. They missed finals and had a few veterans leave a year later too.

FB: Enright Lonergan Rivers
HB: Mackie Taylor Guthrie
C: Duncan Selwood Kelly
HF: Murdoch Walker Bartel
FF: Kersten Hawkins McCarthy
FOL: Vardy Christensen Johnson
IC: Caddy Thurlow Varcoe Stokes

Bizarre to think that this side regenerated into a premiership unit 8 seasons later that would maintain just 4 of these players. With only one top 10 draft pick in the years to follow (Cockatoo, oh dear).

These things are unfortunately not as predictable as people would wish.
 
The Cats are cooked!! The cliff has finally come. Their midfield is a disaster and they are a Jeremy Cameron injury away from finishing bottom 4 next season.
 
The answer, as it has been since 2010, remains Geelong.

:thumbsu: Wrote the book on list management.

I reckon we'll finally get past you for age this year. Us and the Cats have a very fat top line in that analysis, and a bunch of them are load-bearing lynch pins. I wonder if we have the same capacity to navigate the icebergs of old age.
 
View attachment 1863237
Whilst this graph ignores your draftees/5 games rule it makes it easier for us smooth brains :)
The problem with just looking at statistics is the difference in the quality of the young players on the list and the reliance on the older players.

Geelong is 5th in terms of young talent but most of them would have been picked up late in the draft and they still rely heavily on their older players. Westcoast would have been similar at the end of last year.

I think Richmond and St Kilda have a lot of their better players in the top age group but have better talent coming through, StKilda moreso. The Richmond trades last year have really stuffed their list up I think.

Dogs success this year will still depend heavily on Jones and Libba who are in that top age group but hopefully have a couple of good years left.
 
The problem with just looking at statistics is the difference in the quality of the young players on the list and the reliance on the older players.

Geelong is 5th in terms of young talent but most of them would have been picked up late in the draft and they still rely heavily on their older players. Westcoast would have been similar at the end of last year.

I think Richmond and St Kilda have a lot of their better players in the top age group but have better talent coming through, StKilda moreso. The Richmond trades last year have really stuffed their list up I think.

Dogs success this year will still depend heavily on Jones and Libba who are in that top age group but hopefully have a couple of good years left.
Of course, the graph is merely a tool to assist you in your dicision not he be-all and end-all.
 
View attachment 1863237
Whilst this graph ignores your draftees/5 games rule it makes it easier for us smooth brains :)
Interesting graph at a glance , doesn't really say much about the quality of talent in the category though right ? Like bit silly calling Nick Daicos a "young prospect " as opposed to " best player in comp and is only just turning 21 in 2024"
 

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The problem with just looking at statistics is the difference in the quality of the young players on the list and the reliance on the older players.

Geelong is 5th in terms of young talent but most of them would have been picked up late in the draft and they still rely heavily on their older players.

Of course we still rely on our older players but saying our selections have mostly been picked up "late in the draft" is just not true.

Players originally drafted in the top 36 (2 picks per club) since 2019 that are on Geelong's list ordered by initial pick:

Clark (8)
O'Sullivan (11)
*Bruhn (12)
*O Henry (17)
De Koning (19)
Holmes (20)
Conway (24)
Knevitt (25)
Willis (32)
Edwards (32)
Neale (33)
Mannagh (36)

Compare that to Hawthorn for example:
Watson (5)
Grainger-Barrass (6)
Ward (7)
Mackenzie (7)
Day (13)
*Stephens (16)
Weddle (18)
McCabe (19)
Butler (23)
Macdonald (26)
Maginness (29)
Mitchell (29)

So we have the same number of top 36 picks. One less top 25 over that time. 2 less top 20 (although that includes Stephens who has been traded for little, delisted and rerookied and he's by far the worst prospect of that group). Of course Hawthorn's picks weight a bit earlier but it's not a massive difference.

It's hard to judge young players playing in a competitive team vs a poor team and most neutrals would take Hawthorn's group. But looking through those players there isn't some giant chasm between the two. It's plausible Geelong's group could end up better. And Hawthorn has arguably the best youth in the league.
 
:thumbsu: Wrote the book on list management.

I reckon we'll finally get past you for age this year. Us and the Cats have a very fat top line in that analysis, and a bunch of them are load-bearing lynch pins. I wonder if we have the same capacity to navigate the icebergs of old age.
And if you don't navigate it well no one would care, 2023 made it all worth it. Just like 2022 has made our possible slide worth it.
Still don't think we'll slide far overall. Some years between 9-13 most likely.
 
And if you don't navigate it well no one would care, 2023 made it all worth it. Just like 2022 has made our possible slide worth it.
Still don't think we'll slide far overall. Some years between 9-13 most likely.
Frankly admire Geelongs longevity, as mentioned above I was sure you were past it in October 2010. Also 2013. Also two years agao.

Still most clubs would be in strife with that age profile and I feel like we are. Cox a special case, wasn't a footy player until 25 so he's really 29 [expected score].

How we are still getting matchwinning footy out of Pendles and Sidey is beyond me, they are freaks.

We've been nursing some great kids, hope they come to the party.
 
Of course we still rely on our older players but saying our selections have mostly been picked up "late in the draft" is just not true.

Players originally drafted in the top 36 (2 picks per club) since 2019 that are on Geelong's list ordered by initial pick:

Clark (8)
O'Sullivan (11)
*Bruhn (12)
*O Henry (17)
De Koning (19)
Holmes (20)
Conway (24)
Knevitt (25)
Willis (32)
Edwards (32)
Neale (33)
Mannagh (36)

Compare that to Hawthorn for example:
Watson (5)
Grainger-Barrass (6)
Ward (7)
Mackenzie (7)
Day (13)
*Stephens (16)
Weddle (18)
McCabe (19)
Butler (23)
Macdonald (26)
Maginness (29)
Mitchell (29)

So we have the same number of top 36 picks. One less top 25 over that time. 2 less top 20 (although that includes Stephens who has been traded for little, delisted and rerookied and he's by far the worst prospect of that group). Of course Hawthorn's picks weight a bit earlier but it's not a massive difference.

It's hard to judge young players playing in a competitive team vs a poor team and most neutrals would take Hawthorn's group. But looking through those players there isn't some giant chasm between the two. It's plausible Geelong's group could end up better. And Hawthorn has arguably the best youth in the league.

You should try this with first round picks, and with a team that hasn't followed the recruitment strategy as Geelong until Mitchell got the top job from Clarko.

Try this vs Adelaide, might be different.
 
Of course we still rely on our older players but saying our selections have mostly been picked up "late in the draft" is just not true.

Players originally drafted in the top 36 (2 picks per club) since 2019 that are on Geelong's list ordered by initial pick:

Clark (8)
O'Sullivan (11)
*Bruhn (12)
*O Henry (17)
De Koning (19)
Holmes (20)
Conway (24)
Knevitt (25)
Willis (32)
Edwards (32)
Neale (33)
Mannagh (36)

Compare that to Hawthorn for example:
Watson (5)
Grainger-Barrass (6)
Ward (7)
Mackenzie (7)
Day (13)
*Stephens (16)
Weddle (18)
McCabe (19)
Butler (23)
Macdonald (26)
Maginness (29)
Mitchell (29)

So we have the same number of top 36 picks. One less top 25 over that time. 2 less top 20 (although that includes Stephens who has been traded for little, delisted and rerookied and he's by far the worst prospect of that group). Of course Hawthorn's picks weight a bit earlier but it's not a massive difference.

It's hard to judge young players playing in a competitive team vs a poor team and most neutrals would take Hawthorn's group. But looking through those players there isn't some giant chasm between the two. It's plausible Geelong's group could end up better. And Hawthorn has arguably the best youth in the league.
There's only one top 10 drafted player there and not really many first rounders. Hard to get really elite players outside top 10.
Geelong are obviously very good at finding diamonds in the rough and develop players well but it still is a hurdle to overcome.
 
There's only one top 10 drafted player there and not really many first rounders. Hard to get really elite players outside top 10.
Geelong are obviously very good at finding diamonds in the rough and develop players well but it still is a hurdle to overcome.

That's a weird statement when looking at those 2 lists. Of course top 10 picks in general are better than picks outside that but there are elite talents in those lists not taken in the top 10.

Will Day is Hawthorn's best player in that list and worth miles more than a random top 10 pick. De Koning and Holmes are Geelong's two best and both worth comfortably more than a random top 10 pick. All of them were taken outside the top 10.

Why should we care that they weren't top 10 picks when they're projecting better than most top 10 picks?
 
You should try this with first round picks, and with a team that hasn't followed the recruitment strategy as Geelong until Mitchell got the top job from Clarko.

Try this vs Adelaide, might be different.
Doesn't look that different against Adelaide.

Tilthorpe (2)
Rachele (6)
Curtin (8)
Pedlar (11)
Michalanney (17)
Edwards (21)
Schoenberg (24)
Cook (25)
Ryan (27)
Worrell (28)
Berry (28)
Soligo (36)

Same number of top 36. Adelaide has 2 more top 10. Geelong has 3 more 11-20.

Again you can absolutely argue Adelaide's list is better than Geelong's. Personally I think Geelong's list of recruits since the 2019 draft is better while Adelaide has some extra quality slightly older (Rankine, Fogarty, etc). But the point is we're comparing Geelong's youth to 2 of the highest rated teams for youth in the league and Geelong's youth stacks up ok. It's just wrong to say Geelong's youth is a bunch of late draftees when there's plenty of high picks and lots of talent there.
 
:thumbsu: Wrote the book on list management.

I reckon we'll finally get past you for age this year. Us and the Cats have a very fat top line in that analysis, and a bunch of them are load-bearing lynch pins. I wonder if we have the same capacity to navigate the icebergs of old age.

If it all goes belly up we can watch replays of the 2022-23 grand finals while our kids fight it out for the spoon in a couple of years. Life could be worse.
 
8. Sydney (9) - Franklin, Hickey
32+ - Reid, Rampe
29-32 – Parker, Hamling, Fox, Lloyd, Adams, Cunningham, Grundy

27-29 – Heeney, Papley, Melican
25-27 – Mills, Francis, Ladhams, Florent, Hayward
23-25 – McLean, Amartey, Wicks, McCartin, Blakey, McInerney, Rowbottom
21-23 – Jordan, Ch.Warner, Campbell, McDonald, Gulden
Under 21 – Roberts, Sheldrick


It isn't perfect but I am fairly comfortable with where the Swans are at. Reid was a non-entity in 2023 and Rampe is clearly slowing down, and while some Swans fans are not a huge fan of him I quite like Francis and thought he got better as the season went on.

The 29 to 32 bracket is a bit harder to replace, though 3 of the players in that bracket are players we brought in this trade period so it is a bit different than if they were all embedded in the team for the last decade.

I like the younger guys coming through, and I think Sheldrick is going to be a great replacement for Parker.
 
Doesn't look that different against Adelaide.

Tilthorpe (2)
Rachele (6)
Curtin (8)
Pedlar (11)
Michalanney (17)
Edwards (21)
Schoenberg (24)
Cook (25)
Ryan (27)
Worrell (28)
Berry (28)
Soligo (36)

Same number of top 36. Adelaide has 2 more top 10. Geelong has 3 more 11-20.

Again you can absolutely argue Adelaide's list is better than Geelong's. Personally I think Geelong's list of recruits since the 2019 draft is better while Adelaide has some extra quality slightly older (Rankine, Fogarty, etc). But the point is we're comparing Geelong's youth to 2 of the highest rated teams for youth in the league and Geelong's youth stacks up ok. It's just wrong to say Geelong's youth is a bunch of late draftees when there's plenty of high picks and lots of talent there.
Yeah sorry, I missed three part about starting in 2019, Geelong could surprise a few, again!
 
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