Which team will make the 8?
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Rosstickle
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Hawthorn have a tough draw, Port are shit away from home (but fortunately have a few at home) and for some reason I still don't rate Essendon. I still seem to think that the Hawks can get it together and might even be able to knock of the Cats or Saints.
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The Hawks have a really shit draw. Unless they turn 2008 form on, they'll stay in the bottom 8. I think it'll be close between Essendon and Port Adelaide. It depends on the 50/50 games like Essendon vs Hawthorn and Port vs Freo at Subiaco.
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Carlton out, in Hawthorn with Essendon, though Hawthorn do have a tough draw.
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Would be nice but unless we beat Geelong this weekend we are close on no chance.
I am very much looking forward to round 22 when Hawthorn put Essendon out of the eight.
We have a fairly good run home which gives me confidence that coming into round 22, we may already have a spot in the 8 sewn up.
Hawthorn are our only real challengers.
Port are far too up and down to be considered real threat to make the finals.
Hawthorn are our only real challengers.
Port are far too up and down to be considered real threat to make the finals.
Chism
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Port have been up and down all year, When they beat Brisbane I thought they would start playing more consistent football. There best is enough to make it but will they turn up. Hawthorn look to have hit some form and are still in the race. Essendon are the least likely to make it.
I'm gunna tip Hawthorn to make it.
I'm gunna tip Hawthorn to make it.
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We play Eagles, Freo and Richmond who are all in tank mode and have big chances to beat Brisbane and Hawthorn, with the Saints game the only certain loss. By far the easiest draw out of the 3.
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LOL
We have 2 tough matches - Geelong & Adelaide (consider these as a loss)
We have a 50/50 against Collingwood (More 60/40 in our favour, but you never know with these rivals matches)
We have (of the lesser teams) North, Port @ Etihad and Melbourne (consider these as wins - based on their current form)
We are 1 game clear of 8th and if we include the 3 lesser teams as wins - that will give us 12 wins, maybe even 13.
Hawthorn have a tough draw, but getting back into form when it really counts, knowing them, they will fire up knowing their finals is on the line.
Haven't looked at Essendon's draw, however, doesn't look good as Hawks are getting their touch. Percentage may be the deciding factor.
So I don't believe Carlton will drop out of the 8 for Hawthorn and Essendon.
Football is a funny game. And a lot of people have very short memories.
The Hawks were great on the weekend against the Pies after playing one quarter of solid football against a bottom 4 side in North Melbourne the previous week. All of a sudden they are the flavour of the month again. Who is to say Geelong won't come out and give them a touch-up this week? Hawks fans maintain they have some sort of edge over Geelong - but wouldn't the Cats love dearly to put a massive dint into any finals aspirations the Hawks may have? They've had a much better year in 2009 than Hawthorn and this scenario really wouldn't surprise me.
Port Adelaide lost to MELBOURNE last weekend and were pretty much written off for a finals appearance altogether after their insipid performance. After a 6-goal win against another bottom 4 side in West Coast (who have lost their last 18 games away from home) and all of a sudden they are legitimate finals contenders. They have the Crows in the Showdown this weekend which is by no means an easy game and despite Adelaide's showing on the weekend they have been in much more impressive form than anything Port has been able to muster recently.
Essendon, after giving the Swans a touch-up at the SCG the week before went down to the 3rd-placed Bulldogs on the weekend and now seem no chance of making the finals - despite playing 3 bottom 4 teams on the run home in Richmond, Fremantle & West Coast who would have question marks over their motivation to win games in order not to stuff up their favourable draft preferences. The Dons also have a 7% percentage break on their rivals which at this time of year is about equivalent to a 100-point win. They play Richmond at the MCG this week which will be considered by some as a danger game, but one they can very realistically win.
Don't be too fooled by one good or bad performance by a team. If the Dons win the games they should from now on, they will get in - even with a loss to the Hawks in the final round.
The Hawks were great on the weekend against the Pies after playing one quarter of solid football against a bottom 4 side in North Melbourne the previous week. All of a sudden they are the flavour of the month again. Who is to say Geelong won't come out and give them a touch-up this week? Hawks fans maintain they have some sort of edge over Geelong - but wouldn't the Cats love dearly to put a massive dint into any finals aspirations the Hawks may have? They've had a much better year in 2009 than Hawthorn and this scenario really wouldn't surprise me.
Port Adelaide lost to MELBOURNE last weekend and were pretty much written off for a finals appearance altogether after their insipid performance. After a 6-goal win against another bottom 4 side in West Coast (who have lost their last 18 games away from home) and all of a sudden they are legitimate finals contenders. They have the Crows in the Showdown this weekend which is by no means an easy game and despite Adelaide's showing on the weekend they have been in much more impressive form than anything Port has been able to muster recently.
Essendon, after giving the Swans a touch-up at the SCG the week before went down to the 3rd-placed Bulldogs on the weekend and now seem no chance of making the finals - despite playing 3 bottom 4 teams on the run home in Richmond, Fremantle & West Coast who would have question marks over their motivation to win games in order not to stuff up their favourable draft preferences. The Dons also have a 7% percentage break on their rivals which at this time of year is about equivalent to a 100-point win. They play Richmond at the MCG this week which will be considered by some as a danger game, but one they can very realistically win.
Don't be too fooled by one good or bad performance by a team. If the Dons win the games they should from now on, they will get in - even with a loss to the Hawks in the final round.
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Port are the ultimate Jekyl & Hyde team, but it seems their good team shows up far less than their bad team does. Essendon have got the goods, and an easy run home with Tigers, Freo and WCE. Hawthorn - who knows? They beat Collingwood in an impressive display, but their gameplan has always matched up well on the Pies, and apart from that they have been insipid, and they'd struggle with their draw even if they played like they did last week every game.
Essendon for mine.
Essendon for mine.
