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who will make the biggest move in 2011

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which player do you think will take big strides in 2011? will it be one of the younger guys who just haven't put it all together yet? will it be one of the rookies who take the step up to seniors and put in some solid performances, will it be someone who's shown glimpses who adds consistency to their game or will it be one of the older guys who surprise everyone by pulling another trick out of the bag or take advantage of a change in position?

My pick is Jetta, just in front of Kennedy with McVeigh or Shaw to be smokies.

Jetta improved over the course of the 2010 season to put in some strong performances in the latter part of the year, including his 4th quarter effort against the dogs which included a crucial goal. He also kicked a crucial goal against Freo when the game was in the balance, which gives me confidence that he can perform when the chips are stacked against us. Things also started to click into gear once he finally got the monkey off his back. He has alot of weapons which he has yet to put together, He has a booming kick, can kick em from beyond the 50 which is impressive for such a skinny guy. He's got pace to burn, but lacked the confidence early on in the season to really use it, when he finally figures out how utilize his speed effectively he'll be a dangerous player. His ability to spot up teammates by foot has been pretty impressive so far, with greater confidence in his ability and leg speed his disposal should improve even moreso. His defensive game has also improved throughout 2010. Early in the year he was being thrown off opponents but in the dogs game his tackles stuck and he went harder at his opponent (he even bumped Brian Lake off the ball in the 4th quarter). With a bit of weight and some time in the gym he'll hold his own defensively. IMO, he has so many tools that'll make him a dangerous player, with the monkey finally off his back, some extra confidence in his game and finals experience along with a full pre season under his belt I expect we'll see a huge improvement in his game. I predict 26 goals for the year.

Kennedy I think will take a step up in 2011, taking over where Kirk left off. But he showed quite a bit last season so I don't think we'll see a remarkable improvement from him, I'm happy to be wrong though. He's gonna be a great player for us regardless.

McVeigh, we've been waiting on him to play to his potential, I think with an improved midfield, McVeigh will benefit from receiving the ball in more space. I think he could really excel in 2011, or it may just be more of the same from him, lets hope it's the former.

Shaw, imo he struggled at times in 2010, being moved up from the halfback line. He occasionally burnt easy shots at goal. If he plays more of a role up the ground, and focusses on these aspects of his game during pre-season, 2011 may be a year where he reinvents himself.
 
Jude The Just for me GTS.
While there are a few others I hope will, or expect to, The Beast Of B1 will step forth I feel. He will relish the role of midfield minder and at 31 he is set for his finest season. For Jude, the combative ruck play of Mummy is central to his rise and barring his bruising bout of concussion last season it would be even more evident. Injury not intent, will be his brake in this BLOODS:diamond: business. The very large shadow of Kirk has cast over him for many a season and for great benefit, now rise B1 - and be top banana.:thumbsu:
 

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I'm thinking Malceski. He is apparently ripping it up and although he had a great year, I think he can get back to his best. Which is very damn good.

Also LJ will be a very nice addition. I also think Parker will have a good year (if he plays round 1)
 
There'd have to be a big number of injuries for 18yo Parker to get a debut in round 1 I reckon. But he certainly sounds like a player of substance.

My tip is for Brett Meredith to win the Most Improved this year. From what the coaches and other players have said, he is having a wonderful offseason, and we all know how much the coaching staff rated him anyway.
 
Hopefully White.

Kennedy seems a good choice though. Kirk gone and his finals series shows he can match it with the best.

This. Really think White will break out and have a really dominant year.

Also reckon Rohan might step it up a pace, and - for Soph's sake - hope Currie can break into the team somehow.
 
White, in 2009 he showed he can do it and in 201 he was shown he still needed to work at it. Put the whole bundle together and boom. he has a certain quality that could make him a super power forward and when he gets it right look out league.
 
Lewy Johnston. His form at the end of the last year despite carrying a niggling injury in the reserves was promising. Will be better from another pre-season under his belt and should feature strongly for you mob if he is truly ready.
 
Keiren Jack. Although last year was already his breakout year, I think he's got even more in him. Will step it up another gear and become one of the best midfielders in the league. I predict top 10 brownlow finish.
Rhys Shaw would be my other pick. He's shown flashes of brilliance and been let down by his disposals. If Longmire can find his best position in the team, and Rhys gets his kicking efficiency up, he could be dangerous.

Edit: Oh yeah, and watch out for the 2nd coming of ROK. Unhampered by injury this year, the sky is the limit.
 
2 words for ya all.

Jesse White!!!

I still have faith in the man mountain. Those who don't will have eggs in their faces by the end of the 2011 season.

I dare say Wolfie. The reason for the reinforcement to his salient shoulder, is in readiness for those preparing to Ride The White Lightning!!

Run - He's coming to claim you
Run - Nowhere to hide away
Run - Oh, you dance with danger
Run - Oh, you gotta ride the...:thumbsu:
 

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Let's take a more objective look at the Most Improved Award and see whether we can apply the same criteria to hopefully pick the winner in 2011.

These are the winners of the "Dennis Carroll Trophy for the Most Improved Player" for the past 8 years. The numbers in the brackets represent how many seasons in the AFL system (note: not how many years since his debut) and how many senior AFL games (both Swans and other clubs) he has had under his belt.
2010 - Pyke (1 year; 8 games)
2009 - Grundy (4 years; 24 games)
2008 - Moore (4 years; 9 games)
2007 - Jolly (6 years; 97 games) and Richards (6 years; 56 games)
2006 - McVeigh (3 years; 33 games)
2005 - Ablett (4 years; 29 games) and Buchanan (4 years; 22 games)
2004 - O'Keefe (4 years; 43 games)
2003 - J.Bolton (4 years; 67 games)

Facts about the winners:
  • There are no debutants, every player had already debuted at senior level. In fact, they may well be ineligible for this award, but I can't find a list of criteria online. Therefore we can remove all players who haven't debuted from our list of prospects.
  • Despite the success of our recruits from other clubs, no recruit won it in their first year at the Swans. In that case, we can say good bye to Messrs Everitt and Spangher.
  • The winner is likely to have spent 6 years or less already on an AFL list. Mike Pyke, incredibly, had only the one season under his belt (and his only season at any level) as compared to the other winners. Cutting all players going into the 7th season of AFL or higher.

We can apply a further filter by looking at the winners of the Swans best rookie award the Swans Rising Star
2010 - Hannebery
2009 - Smith, White (TIE)
2008 - Bird, Jack (TIE)
2007 - Schmidt
2006 - Malceski
2005 - Dempster
2004 - Bevan
2003 - Schneider
What immediately becomes apparent is that none of the Rising Stars have gone on to collect the Most Improved Award as well. This may be due to the coaches preferring to hand the recognition for Most Improved to a player who has struggled in the early part of his career before finally cementing a concrete place in the side.

This is possibly the most contentious step to take, given that there are 2 guys in there Bird and White who from my point of view have a chance to win it due to poor seasons in 2010, albeit for wildly different reasons. However, let's keep on track with our aim of performing an objective analysis and continue to omit these two players.

So applying the filters as I have specified above, we end up with this list:
  • Brett Meredith
  • Trent Dennis-Lane
  • Josh Kennedy
  • Gary Rohan
  • Ben McGlynn
  • Lewis Jetta
  • Campbell Heath
  • Mike Pyke
  • Shane Mumford

I'm going to apply a manual cull to Kennedy, McGlynn and Mumford because they all had stellar seasons in 2010. Pyke is also omitted, not just because he won the award in 2010 but because he will struggle to get games due to Seaby's return.

Therefore, my final list is and IMHO the winner is likely to come from:
  • Brett Meredith
  • Trent Dennis-Lane
  • Gary Rohan
  • Lewis Jetta
  • Campbell Heath

Heath was a surprise debutant last year but will struggle to get games in his preferred defensive position due to returns from injury (C.Bolton, LRT) and recruitment (Spangher). In addition, last year was basically his first year given that he missed all of 2009 due to a bad injury as well as the fact he was completing Year 12 in Melbourne.

Dennis-Lane looked to have secured a berth in the seniors by season's end, and was contributing in such a major way that he earnt Brownlow votes in 2 consecutive games. Therefore, I'm ruling him out of the running on the grounds that he doesn't have as much improvement left in him as compared to the other guys.

Jetta, Meredith and Rohan are the favourites for mine, given they are your classic case of a depth/fringe player: Often the last or 2nd last player named in the squad, named on the emergencies multiple times, playing bit part roles with quite a lot of time spent on the bench (72%, 68% and 77% TOG respectively). If they can upgrade their place from a fringe to a 'best 22' player and hence contribute in a greater capacity, they will raging hot favourites for the award. I'm leading towards Meredith at this stage because of the great reports that are emanating from pre-season training as well as the fact that he has 2 more years at the Swans under his belt than Jetta and Rohan.

Winner: Brett Meredith
 
Great post.

You'd think the 2005 winner would have been Buchanan.
Thanks AG, I just googled Buchanan and Most Improved and you were (half) right. Ablett shared the award and Dempster was the Rising Star in 2005.
 
Good post, Grim.

But I tipped Meredith first, so if he is to win it, I get all the imaginary props and credit for tipping him on an online forum that has no real connection to the club.

Yeh. I do.
 
Sam Reid. Only played one game but very impressive debut for a young tall. He just knows where to go like his brother. Dont know what Longmire thinks, though and thats what counts early on in the season.
 
Sam Reid. Only played one game but very impressive debut for a young tall. He just knows where to go like his brother. Dont know what Longmire thinks, though and thats what counts early on in the season.
I was sitting near the coaches in one reserves game where Reid was marking everything in sight, and both Longmire and Blakey were more excited about him than truant schoolgirls at a Justin Bieber sighting. They'll still be very wary about his age and build though, and will have to balance his long-term development with what he can offer the club this season.

EDIT: After reading your post, I realise I culled Reid from the list prematurely, given that he's played one game he doesn't fall into any of the categories for deletion. However, he is more likely to win the Rising Star award than the Most Improved award so I'm still sticking with BMer.
 

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I think it will be close between Rohan and Johnston for the rising star, if Lamb gets an oppurtunity early enough I suspect he might possibly hold his spot and give them two a run for their money. White will win most improved in a canter.
 
Good post, Grim.

But I tipped Meredith first, so if he is to win it, I get all the imaginary props and credit for tipping him on an online forum that has no real connection to the club.

Yeh. I do.

Um excuse me? I'm pretty sure on this forum I am his número one supporter of brett...!!!!!
Fight me ;)
 
Good post, Grim.

But I tipped Meredith first, so if he is to win it, I get all the imaginary props and credit for tipping him on an online forum that has no real connection to the club.

Yeh. I do.
I tipped the Vespa last year :o
 
Don't tip Meredith.
 
Which flagpole we could sell tickets, an event like this could help us get through the offseason
 

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