Opinion Why are there So Many Poor teams in 2025

[PenfoldsFan]

7 of the top 11 are non Victorian.

The question isnt why are there so many poor teams.
Its why are they predominantly Victorian and so whats wrong with Victorian clubs?

 

[dalecooper]

i don't think its a talent pool issue, its a talent distribution issue, gws, brisbane, gold coast having a monopoly on young talent plus sides finally realising it's better to bottom out, get high draft picks in than stay a mediocre team and finish 12-6 every year

 

[Underdog]

Largely due to free agency.

This still bothers me because the teams that pay for a free agency move is every single other team that isn't directly involved in it.

One team receives the player, the other receives a compensation pick, and EVERY other team gets shuffled down the draft order, impacting upon the quality of the player they can draft.

The pick dilution is an absolutely blight on the game.

Look at a terrible team like West Coast who finished last in 2023 and received the #1 pick. Their 2nd selection should have been at #19 but was pushed out pre-draft to #23 because of:

• North Melbourne receiving pick #3 as a compensation pick
• Adelaide receiving pick #20 as a compensation pick
• St Kilda receiving pick #21 as a compensation pick
• Carlton receiving pick #22 as a compensation pick (via North Melbourne)

Then on draft day, that pick #23 was pushed out further to #30 due to Father/Son and Academy selections.

Access to elite drafting talent for the worst teams is severely compromised.

 

[sexyhunk]

It's getting increasingly difficult to rebuild as a result of all of the concession, father/son, and academy picks. Talent is only going to get thinner with the introduction of Tasmania (if it happens). You really need to be nailing late picks and developing them well but that can be compromised by football department spending caps.

this is pretty much spot on, in any other competition, north would have at least one of Nick Daicos, Sam Darcy or Will Ashcroft to rebuild with.

 

[Rod Stroker]

because we weren't given enough draft picks in previous years

 

[Robroy22]

I'll give you one I don't thinks been mentioned yet....a reason there's so many poor teams in 2025 is due to a terribly manipulated draw (fixture...call it what you like)

In the olden days when everyone played twice (home and away) the lesser teams got to play themselves more often. That led to more evenness in results and only a couple of really poor teams each season. Injuries to key players didn't affect teams so much either because lists were over 50 players a club and you could always just bring in new talent from the lower leagues as required.

The draw in 2025 has handed some top eight teams very cosy fixtures against the cellar dwellers which constantly pours the pressure on these struggling sides to avoid getting belted each week. Struggling young or inexperienced teams getting smashed by 50-80 points a week must dilute the players will to continue competing and the cycle just spirals downwards.

The AFL fixture guru's gambled on Carlton and Essendon being clubs on the rise this season (alongside the perennial Golden children GWS and GC) and the fixture's they had were meant to boost them into contention. It has in fact done nothing of the sort although the Cats are now going to go on a run of "easy pickings" right up till finals time.

The AFL draw has been compromised for many years, we've all known that. This year however they've got it more WRONG than usual and its had a detrimental effect on sides that are now deemed to be "poor".

 

[aussierulesrules]

I'll give you one I don't thinks been mentioned yet....a reason there's so many poor teams in 2025 is due to a terribly manipulated draw (fixture...call it what you like)

In the olden days when everyone played twice (home and away) the lesser teams got to play themselves more often. That led to more evenness in results and only a couple of really poor teams each season. Injuries to key players didn't affect teams so much either because lists were over 50 players a club and you could always just bring in new talent from the lower leagues as required.

The draw in 2025 has handed some top eight teams very cosy fixtures against the cellar dwellers which constantly pours the pressure on these struggling sides to avoid getting belted each week. Struggling young or inexperienced teams getting smashed by 50-80 points a week must dilute the players will to continue competing and the cycle just spirals downwards.

The AFL fixture guru's gambled on Carlton and Essendon being clubs on the rise this season (alongside the perennial Golden children GWS and GC) and the fixture's they had were meant to boost them into contention. It has in fact done nothing of the sort although the Cats are now going to go on a run of "easy pickings" right up till finals time.

The AFL draw has been compromised for many years, we've all known that. This year however they've got it more WRONG than usual and its had a detrimental effect on sides that are now deemed to be "poor".

Yeah this certainly plays a part in it. The AFL clearly wanted to give us a big whack for what our prez has been saying and our draw has again been brutal this year.

Last year our draw in the first 9 rounds was obscenely challenging, resulting in our season being over before it started, and this year it was another brutal first 9 rounds, and now, 16 games in, we’ve played just 5 games against bottom 9 teams!

5 games against the bottom 9
11 games against the top 9

Most of our games against weak teams for the year come in the last 5 weeks (4 in a row), by which time our season will be long over.

 

[Hobbes]

The draw in 2025 has handed some top eight teams very cosy fixtures against the cellar dwellers which constantly pours the pressure on these struggling sides to avoid getting belted each week. Struggling young or inexperienced teams getting smashed by 50-80 points a week must dilute the players will to continue competing and the cycle just spirals downwards.

The draw is mostly fair, in terms of double-ups, with one glaring exception.

Double-up matches against top-9 teams

Brisbane 5
Collingwood 4
Adelaide, Gold Coast, GWS, Hawthorn, Bulldogs 3
Fremantle, Geelong 2

Port Adelaide, St Kilda 4
Essendon, Melbourne, Sydney, West Coast 3
Carlton, North, Richmond 2

Really, there's not much in it between the draws of the haves and the have nots.

Brisbane drew a very short straw - their easiest double-up match is Sydney.

Collingwood, Port and St Kilda have it slightly tough.
Geelong and Fremantle have it slightly easy. Mind you, so do Carlton and they haven't done anything with it.

 

[ReturningHawk]

this is pretty much spot on, in any other competition, north would have at least one of Nick Daicos, Sam Darcy or Will Ashcroft to rebuild with.

Or Jason Horne-Francis. Wait.

 

[ReturningHawk]

This whole thread is pointless. Don’t need an explanation for why the ladder looks that way it does. As if Sydney, Port or Melbourne are lacking talent.

 

[Cyclops]

I wasn't sure op was right but a glance at the ladder supports it: 4 sides with 130+%

If that remains the case at the end of h&a it would be unusual.

I think talent is being spread thin. The academies favour a few clubs (why do Collingwood have one? Bizarre) and for various reasons (VicBias among them) Giants Swans and Suns have not maximised it.

Certainly Dons and Port have injuries, and Melbourne and Carlton are "talent sinks" because internal problems have disrupted normal functioning. Some clubs seem to lack the wealth to develop players eg Saints.

So talent is unfairly shared and some clubs "waste" it.

There's probably a thinner spread of coaching, footy and admin talent too. Tassie doesn't even exist and they have a good President and recruiter. The AFL just hovered up Ireland Harley and the other bloke which is good for the game (AFL admin has been clownish and needed some experienced talent) but not so much for clubs looking for admin. This affects recruitment and development in turn.

The argument about the draw is intriguing, and seems to hold water. I guess this again demonstrates the lack of top level talent in Dillons clownshow.

Too many sides. Too much tampering. Too long of a season. Poor leadership at the top. Talent is spread thinner and unfairly clumped.

 

[RonnieRaven]

AFL wants quantity not quality
Should of been
2x SA,WA,NSW,QLD teams
6-8 vic teams
bigger squads
Play everyone home and away
Final top 6
Prelims are home and away (2 leg finals)
Grand final at mcg every second year
The off year alternates between other states.
Unless your team is playing most of the time it’s unwatchable.

 

[Dazb86]

Think we’ve found a way in recent weeks. Push one or two up from your forward line to the stoppages and have the rest of your forwards also push really high up the ground, really congesting it all for the other team.

Is making it very hard for these good teams to play the way they want to against us the last 3 weeks.

Saints are flying

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

The more sides you have the more opportunity for poor sides you’ll have. The talent pool has little to do with that, there are always good and poor sides.
Carlton, Port, Sydney and Melbourne would’ve all expected to play finals this season.

The worry for the AFL is that without the talent pool increasing but adding more sides they are making it harder for sides to rebuild. They are copying a drafting system off the NBA and NFL where individuals can play a much bigger role in the sport then what you can in the AFL so having a top pick can be a lot more valuable.
Looking at the ladder now, we have a system where the Eagles have 1 pick before Collingwood, then they are drafting behind them for the rest of the night. That takes years to be able to catch up. Collingwood getting a FA or WEst Coast getting a McCartin type and they can easily go backwards without any fault of their own.
And obviously having 11 clubs jump above them in the draft before their second pick like in 2023 is laughable. It’s actually embarrassing for the competition, that fact that this isn’t flooding the media probably shows us how much the AFL are controlling the narrative.

 

[Woolly Mammoth]

This conversation is only being had in such a dramatic fashion because *3 of the Vic big 4 are affected *the 24-hour football media machine brings it to your attention. Go right now to AFL tables and have a look at some ladders from the 80s/90s/2000s and tell me how many good teams vs bad teams there were.

Also, wasn't 2024 statistically one of the most even seasons in history?

 

[Cyclops]

This conversation is only being had in such a dramatic fashion because *3 of the Vic big 4 are affected *the 24-hour football media machine brings it to your attention. Go right now to AFL tables and have a look at some ladders from the 80s/90s/2000s and tell me how many good teams vs bad teams there were.

Also, wasn't 2024 statistically one of the most even seasons in history?

Yes in the 80s there was usually 2 top sides, 2 thereabouts and 8 no chance.

To be fair that's why all the equalisation measures came in. In the 00s some scrubby sides snuck in, Collingwood 02 and Melbourne 00 weren't top 2 quality.

So they have worked to a degree.

 

[raskolnikov]

I'll give you one I don't thinks been mentioned yet....a reason there's so many poor teams in 2025 is due to a terribly manipulated draw (fixture...call it what you like)

In the olden days when everyone played twice (home and away) the lesser teams got to play themselves more often. That led to more evenness in results and only a couple of really poor teams each season. Injuries to key players didn't affect teams so much either because lists were over 50 players a club and you could always just bring in new talent from the lower leagues as required.

The draw in 2025 has handed some top eight teams very cosy fixtures against the cellar dwellers which constantly pours the pressure on these struggling sides to avoid getting belted each week. Struggling young or inexperienced teams getting smashed by 50-80 points a week must dilute the players will to continue competing and the cycle just spirals downwards.

The AFL fixture guru's gambled on Carlton and Essendon being clubs on the rise this season (alongside the perennial Golden children GWS and GC) and the fixture's they had were meant to boost them into contention. It has in fact done nothing of the sort although the Cats are now going to go on a run of "easy pickings" right up till finals time.

The AFL draw has been compromised for many years, we've all known that. This year however they've got it more WRONG than usual and its had a detrimental effect on sides that are now deemed to be "poor".

How is Essendon's fixture any easier than other clubs'?

 

[Mr Meow]

I wasn't sure op was right but a glance at the ladder supports it: 4 sides with 130+%

If that remains the case at the end of h&a it would be unusual.

I think talent is being spread thin. The academies favour a few clubs (why do Collingwood have one? Bizarre) and for various reasons (VicBias among them) Giants Swans and Suns have not maximised it.

Certainly Dons and Port have injuries, and Melbourne and Carlton are "talent sinks" because internal problems have disrupted normal functioning. Some clubs seem to lack the wealth to develop players eg Saints.

So talent is unfairly shared and some clubs "waste" it.

There's probably a thinner spread of coaching, footy and admin talent too. Tassie doesn't even exist and they have a good President and recruiter. The AFL just hovered up Ireland Harley and the other bloke which is good for the game (AFL admin has been clownish and needed some experienced talent) but not so much for clubs looking for admin. This affects recruitment and development in turn.

The argument about the draw is intriguing, and seems to hold water. I guess this again demonstrates the lack of top level talent in Dillons clownshow.

Too many sides. Too much tampering. Too long of a season. Poor leadership at the top. Talent is spread thinner and unfairly clumped.

If we draw the boundary just a tiny bit lower to 129.9%, we've had 4+ teams at or beyond that in 2016, 2014, 2013 and 2011 over the past 15 seasons. That it didn't happen over the previous 8 years maybe just means the competition was unusually even then (besides the 2 standout dynasty sides, whose greatness was really borne out in big finals performances anyway).

 

[Yoda_]

7 of the top 11 are non Victorian.

The question isnt why are there so many poor teams.
Its why are they predominantly Victorian and so whats wrong with Victorian clubs?

lets break down the "8" shall we.

Collingwood nearly always make it. They play the majority of there games at the MCG, travel less than anyone else. This leaves 7 spots

Geelong nearly always make it. They win enough home games to make the 8 and then need to beat up on crap or interstate teams to finish top 4. That leaves 6 spots

One of the big 4 (Essendon, Carlton, Collingwood, Richmond, Hawthorn) Melbourne clubs often fill this position. Right now it's Hawthorn.

Law of averages suggests 1 of the most western teams (Freo, WCE, P.A, Adel) will make the 8. That leaves 4 spots

Law of averages suggests 1 of the northern teams (Bris, GCS, GWS, Syd) will make the 8. That leaves 3 spots

Law of averages suggests 1 more interstate team will make finals. leaving 1 spot

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The last two positions can be filled buy anyone

 

[Mr Meow]

lets break down the "8" shall we.

Collingwood nearly always make it. They play the majority of there games at the MCG, travel less than anyone else. This leaves 7 spots

Geelong nearly always make it. They win enough home games to make the 8 and then need to beat up on crap or interstate teams to finish top 4. That leaves 6 spots

One of the big 4 (Essendon, Carlton, Collingwood, Richmond, Hawthorn) Melbourne clubs often fill this position. Right now it's Hawthorn.

Law of averages suggests 1 of the most western teams (Freo, WCE, P.A, Adel) will make the 8. That leaves 4 spots

Law of averages suggests 1 of the northern teams (Bris, GCS, GWS, Syd) will make the 8. That leaves 3 spots

Law of averages suggests 1 more interstate team will make finals. leaving 1 spot

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The last two positions can be filled buy anyone

Geelong the last few years have been winning 5-7 games at home and 8-10 games everywhere else to qualify for finals. I'm not sure how that counts as "winning enough home games to make the 8".

 

[Yoda_]

Geelong the last few years have been winning 5-7 games at home and 8-10 games everywhere else to qualify for finals. I'm not sure how that counts as "enough home games to make the 8".

The record Geelong have is still mighty impressive. Id still argue they win enough home games to help the cause. No coincidence they are regular finalists. Not detracting they are an incredibly well run organisation

 

[Mr Meow]

The record Geelong have is still mighty impressive. Id still argue they win enough home games to help the cause. No coincidence they are regular finalists. Not detracting they are an incredibly well run organisation

Back when we were dominant (2007-2011) our GMHBA record was excellent, but so was our record everywhere.

To some degree that home dominance may have carried us (until finals obviously) in the years that followed, but that trend basically ended after 2019. We drop a few games at home each season these days. Most years the catalogue of strong teams that come down the highway simply hasn't been that deep, or good away from home.

The most consistent thing about Geelong over the past 20 years has actually been a competitive away record. Our win rate away from home alone would qualify us for finals most seasons.

 

[WillHayward]

This is made worse by clubs obsession with yoof- in particular yoof from a Vic private school background. Not enough effort/smarts is put into finding potential players like Stewart, Newcomb, McCarthy, D’Ambrosio etc in the 2nd tier leagues.

Don't forget Maxy Hall

 

[WillHayward]

Don't know if I buy that. There are many thousand young kids who aspire to play AFL, is the required talent really too thin for an 18 team professional comp?

Sidey like Pendles one of the best decision maker I've ever seen. Most of his disposals are dangerous and many lead to a goal.

I don't think the average skill level has gone down by any means.

You can't argue demographics.

Fertility rate has been below 2.1 since 1980.
The talent pool IS dwindling.

General population growth is driven by migrants in their 20s and 30s.

Add in competition from basketball and soccer and it's a clear fact that the talent pool at draft age is dwindling

We can't just import ready made players from other countries.

This will become a big issue once Tassie come in.

This is why the AFL is so desperate to find more new players in QLD (big tick) and NSW (no progress here).

Fun fact:
23% of players in the NBA are foreign born.

 

[PerthBoy86]

You can't argue demographics.

Fertility rate has been below 2.1 since 1980.
The talent pool IS dwindling.

General population growth is driven by migrants in their 20s and 30s.

Add in competition from basketball and soccer and it's a clear fact that the talent pool at draft age is dwindling

This will become a big issue once Tassie come in

View attachment 2363313

There's always been an overrepresentation from the country too. I think it's because playing footy is a big part of life in country towns, and more aspire to play as a career.

That may be a factor, but as they integrate more migrant children will luck it up. It seems it's been more significant among Africans than other groups, though, especially South Sudanese, as they have the athletic traits that suit our game. Far more African or even part African American players than Asian players, despite there being far more Asian Australians, many born here. AFL should try to grow the game in those communities. That's why it was such a shame Lin Jong's career was cruelled by injury. You did and do have a few Lebanese players which is good.