Opinion Why are there So Many Poor teams in 2025

[PowerfulPies2023]

There are 9 teams up to standard this season. At a pinch maybe you can excuse the swans and dons because injuries. We just seeing so many uncompetitive games and big blow out even in prime time games. The AFL must be disappointed we have had so few great games where the results have been close. Evey year they roll out the line the competition is so close this season but in reality the bottom 8 (exclude the swans) are miles behind.

Been close in the seasons before that especially last year. It's not like this season is the norm. I like it actually because from 2nd to 9th it's very close.

 

[MooreTreloar]

lets break down the "8" shall we.

Collingwood nearly always make it. They play the majority of there games at the MCG, travel less than anyone else. This leaves 7 spots

Geelong nearly always make it. They win enough home games to make the 8 and then need to beat up on crap or interstate teams to finish top 4. That leaves 6 spots

One of the big 4 (Essendon, Carlton, Collingwood, Richmond, Hawthorn) Melbourne clubs often fill this position. Right now it's Hawthorn.

Law of averages suggests 1 of the most western teams (Freo, WCE, P.A, Adel) will make the 8. That leaves 4 spots

Law of averages suggests 1 of the northern teams (Bris, GCS, GWS, Syd) will make the 8. That leaves 3 spots

Law of averages suggests 1 more interstate team will make finals. leaving 1 spot

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The last two positions can be filled buy anyone

This isn’t directed specificity at you, but what a of s*** regarding Collingwood and travelling THE LEAST OF ANYONE. I’m sick of hearing this, particularly from supporters of Victorian teams.

Since Gather Round was introduced in 2023 these are just some of the travel numbers for some Victorian teams.

2023
Collingwood - 6
Carlton- 6
Essendon - 6
Richmond - 7
Geelong - 6

2024
Collingwood - 6
Carlton - 6
Essendon - 6
Richmond - 7
Geelong - 6

2025
Collingwood - 6
Carlton - 6
Essendon - 6
Richmond - 6* (North Melbourne in Hobart)
Geelong - 6

So over the last 3 years Collingwood, Carlton, Essendon & Geelong have all traveled the same amount of times 18. Richmond have traveled 20 times in the same 3 season sample since Gather Round was introduced. The * for Richmond is because if North Melbourne didn’t sell home games then that game would be in Melbourne.

So the same old garbage you and many others keep trotting out that Collingwood get gifted finals because they don’t travel is rubbish.

You never hear anyway say “Oh Essendon never travel”. Or “Geelong never travel”. The numbers show that they travel just as little as Collingwood.

 

[Yoda_]

This isn’t directed specificity at you, but what a of s*** regarding Collingwood and travelling THE LEAST OF ANYONE. I’m sick of hearing this, particularly from supporters of Victorian teams.

Since Gather Round was introduced in 2023 these are just some of the travel numbers for some Victorian teams.

2023
Collingwood - 6
Carlton- 6
Essendon - 6
Richmond - 7
Geelong - 6

2024
Collingwood - 6
Carlton - 6
Essendon - 6
Richmond - 7
Geelong - 6

2025
Collingwood - 6
Carlton - 6
Essendon - 6
Richmond - 6* (North Melbourne in Hobart)
Geelong - 6

So over the last 3 years Collingwood, Carlton, Essendon & Geelong have all traveled the same amount of times 18. Richmond have traveled 20 times in the same 3 season sample since Gather Round was introduced. The * for Richmond is because if North Melbourne didn’t sell home games then that game would be in Melbourne.

So the same old garbage you and many others keep trotting out that Collingwood get gifted finals because they don’t travel is rubbish.

You never hear anyway say “Oh Essendon never travel”. Or “Geelong never travel”. The numbers show that they travel just as little as Collingwood.

good research

 

[Crankyhawk]

The draw is mostly fair, in terms of double-ups, with one glaring exception.

Double-up matches against top-9 teams

Brisbane 5
Collingwood 4
Adelaide, Gold Coast, GWS, Hawthorn, Bulldogs 3
Fremantle, Geelong 2

Port Adelaide, St Kilda 4
Essendon, Melbourne, Sydney, West Coast 3
Carlton, North, Richmond 2

Really, there's not much in it between the draws of the haves and the have nots.

Brisbane drew a very short straw - their easiest double-up match is Sydney.

Collingwood, Port and St Kilda have it slightly tough.
Geelong and Fremantle have it slightly easy. Mind you, so do Carlton and they haven't done anything with it.

And Sydney would not have been predicted to fall so far.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Matthew Stokes Mum was Filipino I believe.

I always thought he was aboriginal.

 

[Crankyhawk]

The double ups have really only just started, I know for Hawthorn they only start next week. The split between the top and bottom 9 has occurred during the 1st round of matches

Hawks draw of play all teams then do double ups I think is rare. For example Carlton and north already played twice a couple of weeks ago, same for saints and dogs, Brisbane and Geelong

 

[Robroy22]

I suspect that big Melbourne clubs play interstate clubs away by choice. You’d rather get the crowds and the cash by playing Carlton, Richmond and Essendon at home. Collingwood don’t want to waste a home game playing Gold Coast, GWS or Fremantle.

Pies don't worry about crowd numbers, (never have) we play ANZAC day at a maxed out G and then Big Freeze again at close to sell outs and Melbourne wouldn't draw a crowd in winter otherwise. The AFL USE CFC to ensure "crowds" at GWS and Gold Coast because they're the growth areas...they've never sent us to Tassie because Tasmania is a footy state and they don't need to manufacture crowds.

Collingwood would love to play ALTERNATE matches against lowly clubs (or the AFL fledglings) because it would greatly benefit our chances of winning and boosting %.

 

[Catsace]

I always thought he was aboriginal.

His dad was.

 

[longdonkey]

Its not there are a lot of poor teams its just that there are less good ones

 

[PerthBoy86]

His dad was.

Ah ok

 

[PerthBoy86]

Its not there are a lot of poor teams its just that there are less good ones

How would Collingwood 2025 fare against Collingwood 2010?

 

[Mr Meow]

How would Collingwood 2025 fare against Collingwood 2010?

They would probably be smashed in all honesty.

 

[PerthBoy86]

They would probably be smashed in all honesty.

2010 Pendles, Swan, Maxwell vs 2025 Pendles, Naicos, Jaicos

 

[Mr Meow]

2010 Pendles, Swan, Maxwell vs 2025 Pendles, Naicos, Jaicos

Thomas, Didak, Beams, Cloke, Ball, Shaw, O'Brien, Wellingham, Reid, Dawes vs Long, Elliot, McReery, Miochek, Lipinkski, Houston, Moore, Howe, Hill, McStay.

2010 Pies swarming pressure and midfield depth would beat the 2025 version IMO.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Thomas, Didak, Beams, Cloke, Ball, Shaw, O'Brien, Wellingham, Reid, Dawes vs Long, Elliot, McReery, Miochek, Lipinkski, Houston, Moore, Howe, Hill, McStay.

2010 Pies swarming pressure and midfield depth would beat the 2025 version IMO.

Actually think it might be closer than expected, but hard to compare.

Fly's Pies don't usually blow sides away, but do enough. They're bloody hard to beat, it's mostly coaching and system. Bloody annoying, and I would give them more credit if not for how they get treated. Which prevents me from being gracious about their success. Honestly take that bs away I'd grudgingly admire them more. I respected Buckley's Magpies more.

 

[Mr Meow]

Actually think it might be closer than expected, but hard to compare.

Fly's Pies don't usually blow sides away, but do enough. They're bloody hard to beat, it's mostly coaching and system. Bloody annoying, and I would give them more credit if not for how they get treated. Which prevents me from being gracious about their success. Honestly take that bs away I'd grudgingly admire them more. I respected Buckley's Magpies more.

I just can't see Daicos, Long and ancient Pendles/Sidebottom being able to keep up with that deep, prime aged midfield of the 2010-2011 era. They would really test this squad with ferocious pressure and aggressive ball movement too. But we'll never know. This current Pies side might be better defensively.

 

[PerthBoy86]

I just can't see Daicos, Long and ancient Pendles/Sidebottom being able to keep up with that deep, prime aged midfield of the 2010-2011 era. They would really test this squad with ferocious pressure and aggressive ball movement too. But we'll never know. This current Pies side might be better defensively.

Yes that midfield was something to behold. The 00s had some legendary ones. It's kind of a shame we dropped off in 2007, a prime mid 00s Eagles vs Geelong of the dynasty era would have been some contest. We lacked the scoring fire-power of the Cats, Saints, Pies, Hawks so I think our window was until 08.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Thomas, Didak, Beams, Cloke, Ball, Shaw, O'Brien, Wellingham, Reid, Dawes vs Long, Elliot, McReery, Miochek, Lipinkski, Houston, Moore, Howe, Hill, McStay.

2010 Pies swarming pressure and midfield depth would beat the 2025 version IMO.

Way bigger names then but Sam Mitchell said that the best side Hawthorn has ever had is the side they have right now. Simply because of conditioning and tactics.
Sydney won it in 2012 with lesser names than most sides to.

 

[Pavlovs Cat]

I'll give you one I don't thinks been mentioned yet....a reason there's so many poor teams in 2025 is due to a terribly manipulated draw (fixture...call it what you like)

In the olden days when everyone played twice (home and away) the lesser teams got to play themselves more often. That led to more evenness in results and only a couple of really poor teams each season. Injuries to key players didn't affect teams so much either because lists were over 50 players a club and you could always just bring in new talent from the lower leagues as required.

The draw in 2025 has handed some top eight teams very cosy fixtures against the cellar dwellers which constantly pours the pressure on these struggling sides to avoid getting belted each week. Struggling young or inexperienced teams getting smashed by 50-80 points a week must dilute the players will to continue competing and the cycle just spirals downwards.

The AFL fixture guru's gambled on Carlton and Essendon being clubs on the rise this season (alongside the perennial Golden children GWS and GC) and the fixture's they had were meant to boost them into contention. It has in fact done nothing of the sort although the Cats are now going to go on a run of "easy pickings" right up till finals time.

The AFL draw has been compromised for many years, we've all known that. This year however they've got it more WRONG than usual and its had a detrimental effect on sides that are now deemed to be "poor".

Ok I'll bite. We are talking about the gulf between the top nine and the bottom nine but on the tellie the other night it showed the Cats had played more matches against the top nine than any other team up to this point of the season. So do Geelong have to play no matches at all against the bottom teams to compensate for Collingwood's incredibly hard draw?

 

[windyhill]

Don't let Essendons injury list kid you, our list is no good full stop.

 

[Robroy22]

Ok I'll bite. We are talking about the gulf between the top nine and the bottom nine but on the tellie the other night it showed the Cats had played more matches against the top nine than any other team up to this point of the season. So do Geelong have to play no matches at all against the bottom teams to compensate for Collingwood's incredibly hard draw?

Play twice: Carlton, Brisbane, Fremantle, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Melbourne

Play twice: Brisbane, St Kilda, Greater Western Sydney, Port Adelaide, Essendon, Richmond

You may have played more top 8 sides than we have to round 17 but you're also 3 games and percentage behind us. But take a look at how many bottom sides you'll double up against and then work out why you'll very likely finish top 2 if not on top by the end of the year?

Pies play 4 top 8 sides twice and 2 bottom sides twice.
Cats play 2 top 8 sides twice and 4 bottom sides twice.

Apart from the bankable wins its a pretty big assured percentage boost wouldn't you say?

And this is only two relatively comparable sides.....the inequities are obvious (which team made finals in 2024 and therefore should have received the tougher draw??)

The way the AFL has attempted to manipulate the 'success capabilities' of its clubs this year is abominable. The quicker we go to a play everyone once a year and then alternate the following year type draw the better.

 

[Mr Meow]

Play twice: Carlton, Brisbane, Fremantle, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Melbourne

Play twice: Brisbane, St Kilda, Greater Western Sydney, Port Adelaide, Essendon, Richmond

You may have played more top 8 sides than we have to round 17 but you're also 3 games and percentage behind us. But take a look at how many bottom sides you'll double up against and then work out why you'll very likely finish top 2 if not on top by the end of the year?

Pies play 4 top 8 sides twice and 2 bottom sides twice.
Cats play 2 top 8 sides twice and 4 bottom sides twice.

Apart from the bankable wins its a pretty big assured percentage boost wouldn't you say?

And this is only two relatively comparable sides.....the inequities are obvious (which team made finals in 2024 and therefore should have received the tougher draw??)

The way the AFL has attempted to manipulate the 'success capabilities' of its clubs this year is abominable. The quicker we go to a play everyone once a year and then alternate the following year type draw the better.

What a pathetic couple of sooky rants you've put together about Geelong and fixturing.

Port and GWS were top 4 teams in 2024. Brisbane were the premiers.

St Kilda and Essendon two sides in no man's land (11th, 12th), much like GC, Melbourne etc.

Richmond the one identifiable cellar dweller double up.

Collingwood avoided all top-4 sides but did get the premiers. Hawthorn the other decent side. Carlton = joke, then Fremantle and Melbourne were no man's land teams. No cellar dweller double ups despite Adelaide being bottom 4, but only 2x 2024 sides you'd actually call good.

Nice revisionism based on unpredictable ladder movements though. You really unwrapped the conspiracy.

 

[Robroy22]

What a pathetic couple of sooky rants you've put together about Geelong and fixturing.

Port and GWS were top 4 teams in 2024. Brisbane were the premiers.

St Kilda and Essendon two sides in no man's land (11th, 12th), much like GC, Melbourne etc.

Richmond the one identifiable cellar dweller double up.

Collingwood avoided all top-4 sides but did get the premiers. Hawthorn the other decent side. Carlton = joke, then Fremantle and Melbourne were no man's land teams. No cellar dweller double ups despite Adelaide being bottom 4, but only 2x 2024 sides you'd actually call good.

Nice revisionism based on unpredictable ladder movements though. You really unwrapped the conspiracy.

Well it certainly struck a nerve with you, but the "conspiracy" you talk of is not a conspiracy at all. Its all out in the open, certain clubs (expansion teams et al) get favourable draws, both by way of playing easier teams, by playing harder teams only once and always at home and other clubs (let's take my own as an example) get used as cash cows whenever the AFL deems another club needs a "blockbuster" or "the biggest game in their 15 year history".

Its no conspiracy Puss, its been the AFL's way since forever.

My concern (and the relation to this stream) is that the AFL's manipulation of the fixture, virtually guarantees that struggling clubs (like North, St Kilda) get left behind whilst the expansion clubs get spoon fed (almost as much as us big clubs do)

I didn't identify Geelong as an example until Pavlov brought up the "tellie" reports stating that Geelong had played the most top 8 sides to date, I'm guessing Pavlov forgot to mention that 4 of those games against top 8 sides were played at GMHBA and 2 others at the G?

Pies on the other hand get to play all the interstate top 8 teams interstate (no doubt maximising their "blockbuster" status and also making sure a sell out crowd arrives at each venue (great PR for the expansion code).

Now lets stop the conspiracy claims, its all perfectly legal. But the clubs living with the poor draws and poor time slots must get jack of it sooner or later. The AFL claim to even up the draws over time, but there are clear trends that can be identified and this is NOT assisting the struggling sides in the competition.

 

[Mr Meow]

Well it certainly struck a nerve with you, but the "conspiracy" you talk of is not a conspiracy at all. Its all out in the open, certain clubs (expansion teams et al) get favourable draws, both by way of playing easier teams, by playing harder teams only once and always at home and other clubs (let's take my own as an example) get used as cash cows whenever the AFL deems another club needs a "blockbuster" or "the biggest game in their 15 year history".

Its no conspiracy Puss, its been the AFL's way since forever.

My concern (and the relation to this stream) is that the AFL's manipulation of the fixture, virtually guarantees that struggling clubs (like North, St Kilda) get left behind whilst the expansion clubs get spoon fed (almost as much as us big clubs do)

I didn't identify Geelong as an example until Pavlov brought up the "tellie" reports stating that Geelong had played the most top 8 sides to date, I'm guessing Pavlov forgot to mention that 4 of those games against top 8 sides were played at GMHBA and 2 others at the G?

Pies on the other hand get to play all the interstate top 8 teams interstate (no doubt maximising their "blockbuster" status and also making sure a sell out crowd arrives at each venue (great PR for the expansion code).

Now lets stop the conspiracy claims, its all perfectly legal. But the clubs living with the poor draws and poor time slots must get jack of it sooner or later. The AFL claim to even up the draws over time, but there are clear trends that can be identified and this is NOT assisting the struggling sides in the competition.

I've seen you whinge about Geelong a few times on various matters, so it's obviously a sore topic with you. You aren't the only Collingwood supporter to do it either. It's understandable when Marvel tenants do it, or the non Vic sides who get sick of travelling down there. It's really rich coming from the Pies camp though.

Your big deconstruction of Geelong's fixture didn't make sense as explained in my previous post. They can't predict who will slide and rise. Based on 2024 placements: A couple of top 4 teams, the premier and one bottom 4 side as double ups for a 16-7 team is hardly controversial. Geelong's record against the top 9 is strong anyway. The league wants a million "blockbusters" between Essendon/Carlton and other popular clubs, yet didn't schedule double ups between Geelong and Hawthorn/Collingwood. That's a disadvantage if anything, given any home finals against them would be at the G. More practice = better.

 

[Hobbes]

Perhaps it’s the wrong question. Maybe it should be “Why are there so many very good teams in 2025?” In a normal year, middle-minus teams would have more wins and look better.