Why history suggests Fremantle and/or GWS misses the finals in 2026

[Seattle Mariners]

As unfathomable as it may seem to see Fremantle (stacked talent, potent forward line) and GWS (Oliver acquisition) miss the finals in 2026, history says that one or both of them are in trouble.

Since the league became 18 teams in 2012, there has been at least one elimination final loser to miss finals the following year.
Here is the data to support this:

2011/2012 - St Kilda lost elimination final in 2011 missed finals in 2012
2012/2013 - North Melbourne lost elimination final in 2012, missed finals in 2013
2013/2014- Collingwood and Carlton
2014/2015 - Essendon
2015/2016 - Richmond
2016/2017 - North Melbourne
2017/2018 - Essendon and Port Adelaide
2018/2019 - Sydney
2019/2020 - Essendon
2020/2021- St Kilda
2021/2022 - Essendon
2022/2023- Richmond and Western Bulldogs
2023/2024 - St Kilda
2024/2025 - Western Bulldogs and Carlton

Now I’m not saying one or both of Freo or GWS will automatically miss the finals because of the above data, but they’ll be defying history if both do indeed make it.

And in a parallel universe, had Freo overrun GC and GWS keep that rampaging third quarter going into the last quarter in this year’s elimination finals, then one of GC or Hawthorn would be in trouble for 2026.

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

As unfathomable as it may seem to see Fremantle (stacked talent, potent forward line) and GWS (Oliver acquisition) miss the finals in 2026, history says that one or both of them are in trouble.

Since the league became 18 teams in 2012, there has been at least one elimination final loser to miss finals the following year.
Here is the data to support this:

2011/2012 - St Kilda lost elimination final in 2011 missed finals in 2012
2012/2013 - North Melbourne lost elimination final in 2012, missed finals in 2013
2013/2014- Collingwood and Carlton
2014/2015 - Essendon
2015/2016 - Richmond
2016/2017 - North Melbourne
2017/2018 - Essendon and Port Adelaide
2018/2019 - Sydney
2019/2020 - Essendon
2020/2021- St Kilda
2021/2022 - Essendon
2022/2023- Richmond and Western Bulldogs
2023/2024 - St Kilda
2024/2025 - Western Bulldogs and Carlton

Now I’m not saying one or both of Freo or GWS will automatically miss the finals because of the above data, but they’ll be defying history if both do indeed make it.

And in a parallel universe, had Freo overrun GC and GWS keep that rampaging third quarter going into the last quarter in this year’s elimination finals, then one of GC or Hawthorn would be in trouble for 2026.

What

 

[demondavey]

I’d have Sydney, WB and Carlton in next year with Collingwood, Geelong and GWS out.

Brisbane
Sydney
Carlton
Gold Coast
Adelaide
Fremantle
Hawthorn
WB

 

[Obeanie1]

As unfathomable as it may seem to see Fremantle (stacked talent, potent forward line) and GWS (Oliver acquisition) miss the finals in 2026, history says that one or both of them are in trouble.

Since the league became 18 teams in 2012, there has been at least one elimination final loser to miss finals the following year.
Here is the data to support this:

2011/2012 - St Kilda lost elimination final in 2011 missed finals in 2012
2012/2013 - North Melbourne lost elimination final in 2012, missed finals in 2013
2013/2014- Collingwood and Carlton
2014/2015 - Essendon
2015/2016 - Richmond
2016/2017 - North Melbourne
2017/2018 - Essendon and Port Adelaide
2018/2019 - Sydney
2019/2020 - Essendon
2020/2021- St Kilda
2021/2022 - Essendon
2022/2023- Richmond and Western Bulldogs
2023/2024 - St Kilda
2024/2025 - Western Bulldogs and Carlton

Now I’m not saying one or both of Freo or GWS will automatically miss the finals because of the above data, but they’ll be defying history if both do indeed make it.

And in a parallel universe, had Freo overrun GC and GWS keep that rampaging third quarter going into the last quarter in this year’s elimination finals, then one of GC or Hawthorn would be in trouble for 2026.

Hawks look vulnerable.

Lost best 22 depth players who played finals and didn't land the mid they desperately needed to improve.

Made 8th due to Bulldogs stuffing up.

Dogs or Swans will likely push one or two out of the top 8.

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Hawks look vulnerable.

Lost best 22 depth players who played finals and didn't land the mid they desperately needed to improve.

Made 8th due to Bulldogs stuffing up.

Dogs or Swans will likely push one or two out of the top 8.

No. Hawks were safe. If freo lost to dogs in round 23 they were out.

 

[Mr Meow]

I’d have Sydney, WB and Carlton in next year with Collingwood, Geelong and GWS out.

Brisbane
Sydney
Carlton
Gold Coast
Adelaide
Fremantle
Hawthorn
WB

What's the Geelong logic?

 

[demondavey]

What's the Geelong logic?

Think they’ll have a GF hangover. Pretty common to struggle post thrashing. Trends are there. I think the Bailey Smith scenario gets worse, the ruck situation is an issue, Dangerfield is getting on. Might have a bad year before getting their act together and being top 4 in 2027. We know it happens.

They’ll likely nab a huge name or two in next years trade period. What’s the bet they get Butters and then land Merrett for next to nothing after another year?

 

[Mr Meow]

Think they’ll have a GF hangover. Pretty common to struggle post thrashing. Trends are there. I think the Bailey Smith scenario gets worse, the ruck situation is an issue, Dangerfield is getting on. Might have a bad year before getting their act together and being top 4 in 2027. We know it happens.

They’ll likely nab a huge name or two in next years trade period. What’s the bet they get Butters and then land Merrett for next to nothing after another year?

Fair enough.

Smith improved us in 2025.

The ruck situation is always an "issue".

Dangerfield starred in a few games in 2025 but we won around 15 without him dominating.

The grand final thrashing trend is there, although from memory its usually the case with sides that got smashed from quite early on. As opposed to it being competitive before a late onslaught.

 

[demondavey]

Fair enough.

Smith improved us in 2025.

The ruck situation is always an "issue".

Dangerfield starred in a few games in 2025 but we won around 15 without him dominating.

The grand final thrashing trend is there, although from memory its usually the case with sides that got smashed from quite early on. As opposed to it being competitive before a late onslaught.

He did improve you but he is likely to implode himself with his absolute dickhead behaviour. Because he is so good you don’t want to upset him. He doesn’t seem overly mentally sound. Wouldn’t be surprised if he is finished before 30.

 

[Colonial]

We shall see.

We may have scraped into the 8 this year but any other year it would be top 4 with the amount of wins. Equal most with 2016 for us.

 

[Mr Meow]

He did improve you but he is likely to implode himself with his absolute dickhead behaviour. Because he is so good you don’t want to upset him. He doesn’t seem overly mentally sound. Wouldn’t be surprised if he is finished before 30.

Okay. I don't see how any of those spooky stories send Geelong out of the top 8 next year. It's just a rant about you not liking a guy who kicks a football.

 

[rye]

fremantle are coached by a potato, lost to a team that was nowhere near the level of the actual premiership contenders at home in their only final and required a pretty significant upset win over footscray in the final round to even make top 8 this year. id tip them to make way if i had to choose between the two.

 

[demondavey]

Okay. I don't see how any of those spooky stories send Geelong out of the top 8 next year. It's just a rant about you not liking a guy who kicks a football.

I don’t think he is the type of player you typically recruit. He is great, clearly, but I think the off field needs dragging in.

I don’t think you’ll play finals, but it’ll be an anomaly before a big trade haul and back to business in 2027. Don’t take it personally, just an opinion.

 

[Mr Meow]

I don’t think he is the type of player you typically recruit. He is great, clearly, but I think the off field needs dragging in.

I don’t think you’ll play finals, but it’ll be an anomaly before a big trade haul and back to business in 2027. Don’t take it personally, just an opinion.

I'm not being personal or anything. I'm politely giving my view on your points. The Smith thing just doesn't make sense as far as it sending Geelong into a freefall down the ladder.

I respect your right to an opinion but the only halfway logical thing presented is the simple trend of big grand final losers struggling the next season. I can refute that by telling you to look at what Scott's Cats have done after being smashed in finals the previous year: 2012, good response. 2016, good response. 2017, so-so response (still made finals). 2018, good response. 2021, good response.

 

[kid_a]

I mean recent history may suggest that, but another way to look at it is that we are overdue that this not occur.

Both are as good a bet as each other of happening

 

[Seattle Mariners]

fremantle are coached by a potato, lost to a team that was nowhere near the level of the actual premiership contenders at home in their only final and required a pretty significant upset win over footscray in the final round to even make top 8 this year. id tip them to make way if i had to choose between the two.

Agree with a bit of this.

All the talk was how good the Suns were in their maiden finals performance and win which overshadowed an unforgivable home loss by Freo.

 

[Seattle Mariners]

I mean recent history may suggest that, but another way to look at it is that we are overdue that this not occur.

Both are as good a bet as each other of happening

Absolutely it’s due to happen that both elimination finals losers make the finals the following year.

With that being said, we are 13/13 where at least one elimination finals loser misses the finals the next year, and that can’t be a coincidence.

I’d say there is a whole melting pot of factors why this happens every year:
1) coach can’t taken them any further
2) end of a so called era
3) teams are mentally shot or lose confidence from losing an elimination final
4) group over performed and regress to their actual ability.
5) team has a harder draw the following year.

 

[Obeanie1]

No. Hawks were safe. If freo lost to dogs in round 23 they were out.

The battle from 5th to 9th went down to the final round basically.

GWS, Suns, Freo, Hawks and Dogs 9th.

IMO Dogs, Swans and Saints are the three teams capable of improving into the top 8.

Suns and Freo are young and improving naturally and via trades / draft.

GWS list is super balanced. Do they need anything really?

Swans look like they have reset / reloaded.

Saints with RTB are now good enough to shake the bottom of the 8.

How hungry are the Dogs?

 

[Seattle Mariners]

I'm not being personal or anything. I'm politely giving my view on your points. The Smith thing just doesn't make sense as far as it sending Geelong into a freefall down the ladder.

I respect your right to an opinion but the only halfway logical thing presented is the simple trend of big grand final losers struggling the next season. I can refute that by telling you to look at what Scott's Cats have done after being smashed in finals the previous year: 2012, good response. 2016, good response. 2017, so-so response (still made finals). 2018, good response. 2021, good response.

The only way I can see Geelong missing finals is with a bad run win injuries.

You have the list and home ground advantage to win 15 + games.

You stuffed up on GF day. Thats for you to judge whether that was unforgivable. Your two prior finals in 2025 were elite which shows that you’re clearly in the flag hunt next year.

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Jee-long won't miss the 8 unless as mentioned they get a bad run with injuries.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Hawks look vulnerable.

Lost best 22 depth players who played finals and didn't land the mid they desperately needed to improve.

Made 8th due to Bulldogs stuffing up.

Dogs or Swans will likely push one or two out of the top 8.

It's truly amazing how often you post about Hawthorn.

 

[Purple Suit]

I'm not being personal or anything. I'm politely giving my view on your points. The Smith thing just doesn't make sense as far as it sending Geelong into a freefall down the ladder.

I respect your right to an opinion but the only halfway logical thing presented is the simple trend of big grand final losers struggling the next season. I can refute that by telling you to look at what Scott's Cats have done after being smashed in finals the previous year: 2012, good response. 2016, good response. 2017, so-so response (still made finals). 2018, good response. 2021, good response.

The theory / data is that if you get smashed in a GF you don’t win a final the following year. Most of the time teams don’t make the 8 but the few times they have like the Swans in 23, they don’t win. Getting flogged in 24 as well for the Swans saw them not make it.

It’s a bit like this thread. Nothing is in stone but long term trends happen for a reason. GWS is probably the most at risk Northern club for me due to the age profile of their best players. I think Freo will improve due to the same reason.

 

[Mr Meow]

The theory / data is that if you get smashed in a GF you don’t win a final the following year. Most of the time teams don’t make the 8 but the few times they have like the Swans in 23, they don’t win. Getting flogged in 24 as well for the Swans saw them not make it.

It’s a bit like this thread. Nothing is in stone but long term trends happen for a reason. GWS is probably the most at risk Northern club for me due to the age profile of their best players. I think Freo will improve due to the same reason.

True. I am not dismissing the trend because it is there.

You have to go back to the 90s when big GF losers bounced back very well. WCE '91 win a flag the next year, Carlton '93 make a prelim the next year and Geelong '94 make a grand final the next year.

 

[PerthBoy86]

It's hard to see Hawthorn or Gold Coast missing, so I think it's reasonable to suggest either side could miss.

Brisbane Geelong Hawthorn are probably the only near absolute locks for top 8 atm imo.

 

[Obeanie1]

It's truly amazing how often you post about Hawthorn.

Just as amazing how many threads you create on the Hawks board.

Feel free to add something to the thread.

Not apologising that I hold a veiw different to one eyed supporters. A veiw supported by some pretty in depth analysis and matrics used by the industry and media.

For some reason you just don't like people having a different opinion to your own.