And it's not to be too negative because it is possible but there are still too many unknowns about our rate of improvement that are unanswered to be confident of playing finals this year.
Here are my top few:-
1. Many posters have linked the success of Vickery, Chappy and/or Griff the improvement of Dusty and the return of Foley and Grimes as being pivots to our success.
IMV, the balance of probability means that 1 or 2 might come off - more than likely we need all of this things to happen to play finals
2. The stuff that has hampered us in the past is still an obvious issue - our ball movement inside 50 still lacks system, purpose and impact. Our tackling is good but not yet elite and the last 6 picked would not play in any Top 8 side on a regular basis. It concerns me that White, Jackson, King, Nahas and even Vickery to some extent look like to be in our starting 22. Some of these are pretty solid citizens and Vickery shows promise but week in, week out there are too many in this cluster that go missing in the more important "8 point games"
3. It is a lot harder to win 12-13 games than it is to win 8-10 games. The rate on improvement to wins those extra games means that:-
- we have to learn winning games when we are "the scalp", sides like GC, Power, GWS etc will see us as the winnable game for them. I don't think we have created enough of an aura to break these sides early and put the foot on their throat. I remember the Bombers kicking 13 goals in the 1st qtr against the GC in their first year. We need to make emphatic statements like that against these sides every so often
- I'm not sure we are mature enough to consistently beat those sides around us in the ladder Kangas, Bombers, Saints, Dockers (in Melbourne), Crows, Blues and this year probably the Lions. Whether it is belief, talent or experience ( or all three) I just get the feeling we aren't quite there yet
Of course I am more than happy to be wrong but most of the hype this year is media related and that hype is largely built ln bullshit - apart from Chappy not one of our recycled players was a regretted loss from their clubs so it hardly makes for a vast improvement.
I think one more year of demonstrated improvement with furthe development from Batch, Dusty, Vlas, Ellis, Vickery (finger x'ed) along with a successful return from injury from Foley and Grimes - 2014 looks far more realistic for a genuine dip at finals.
What are your thoughts?
Here are my top few:-
1. Many posters have linked the success of Vickery, Chappy and/or Griff the improvement of Dusty and the return of Foley and Grimes as being pivots to our success.
IMV, the balance of probability means that 1 or 2 might come off - more than likely we need all of this things to happen to play finals
2. The stuff that has hampered us in the past is still an obvious issue - our ball movement inside 50 still lacks system, purpose and impact. Our tackling is good but not yet elite and the last 6 picked would not play in any Top 8 side on a regular basis. It concerns me that White, Jackson, King, Nahas and even Vickery to some extent look like to be in our starting 22. Some of these are pretty solid citizens and Vickery shows promise but week in, week out there are too many in this cluster that go missing in the more important "8 point games"
3. It is a lot harder to win 12-13 games than it is to win 8-10 games. The rate on improvement to wins those extra games means that:-
- we have to learn winning games when we are "the scalp", sides like GC, Power, GWS etc will see us as the winnable game for them. I don't think we have created enough of an aura to break these sides early and put the foot on their throat. I remember the Bombers kicking 13 goals in the 1st qtr against the GC in their first year. We need to make emphatic statements like that against these sides every so often
- I'm not sure we are mature enough to consistently beat those sides around us in the ladder Kangas, Bombers, Saints, Dockers (in Melbourne), Crows, Blues and this year probably the Lions. Whether it is belief, talent or experience ( or all three) I just get the feeling we aren't quite there yet
Of course I am more than happy to be wrong but most of the hype this year is media related and that hype is largely built ln bullshit - apart from Chappy not one of our recycled players was a regretted loss from their clubs so it hardly makes for a vast improvement.
I think one more year of demonstrated improvement with furthe development from Batch, Dusty, Vlas, Ellis, Vickery (finger x'ed) along with a successful return from injury from Foley and Grimes - 2014 looks far more realistic for a genuine dip at finals.
What are your thoughts?
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