Will the Liberals implode?

[Grin]

With so much pressure in so many seats.
With a massive gap in the polls.
With Rudd's teflon seemingly unscratchable,
and quite a few other factors

Will there come a point before the election when cracks to start to appear in the Liberal party?

I think if the polls haven't moved much within the next 3-4 weeks, then the writing is surely on the wall and recriminations may begin.

 

[Dry Rot]

With so much pressure in so many seats.
With a massive gap in the polls.
With Rudd's teflon seemingly unscratchable,
and quite a few other factors

Will there come a point before the election when cracks to start to appear in the Liberal party?

I think if the polls haven't moved much within the next 3-4 weeks, then the writing is surely on the wall and recriminations may begin.

We're still in a very long second quarter. See how they go in the third when the election is called and the campaign is on. And in the fourth (the week before the election).

 

[DaveW]

The signs are there. e.g. Wilson Tuckey's fax to the PM telling him to quit.

But the full blown implosion won't occur until after the election.

 

[Dippers Donuts]

I think there will be a hell of a lot of bloodletting after they lose the election.

Much grinding of teeth amongst the tories as Howard once again junks everything he believes in but they have no choice but to grin and bear it.

Wait till rodent starts blowing the surplus on election bribes and watch icebergs Costello go purple with rage. The libs will be a mess for years.

 

[Grin]

The events of the past week were described by a former NSW premier at a Labour party fund raiser last night as the biggest meltdown by a government on the eve of an election in Australian history.

Of course the Labour party would characterise it that way.

So I guess the question now is: Have the Libs imploded already?

 

[Pessimistic]

They have but are doing a fair job of pretending they havent.

a vicious cycle of crap polls and further infighting leading to crapper polls will finish the job

 

[CharlieG]

It's not easy to get your head around, but this election could consign the Liberal Party to the dustbin of history. Holding Federal government - albeit the most important of all nine governments - has been the outlier in recent years.

In NSW, Labor has held power since 1995, and has been in government for 24 of the past 31 years. The Liberal Party currently holds just 22 of 93 lower house seats and 10 of 42 upper house seats.

In Victoria, Labor has been in office since 1999 and has been in government for 18 of the past 25 years. The Liberal Party currently holds just 23 of 88 lower house seats and 15 of 40 upper house seats.

In Queensland, Labor has been in office since 1998 and has been in government for 16 of the past 18 years. The Liberal Party is the minor Coalition party, and currently holds 8 of 89 seats (there is no upper house).

In Western Australia, Labor has been in office since 2001 and has been in government for 16 of the past 24 years. The Liberal Party currently holds 18 of 57 lower house seats and 15 of 32 upper house seats (and this is expected to fall considerably following electoral reforms that will come into effect at the next election).

In South Australia, Labor has been in office since 2002 and has been in government for 17 of the past 25 years. The Liberal Party currently holds 15 of 47 lower house seats and 8 of 22 upper house seats.

In Tasmania, Labor has been in office since 1998 and has been in government for 12 of the past 18 years. The Liberal Party currently holds 7 of 25 lower house seats and no seats in the independent-dominated upper house.

In the ACT, Labor has been in office since 2001 and has been in office for 10 of the past 18 years. The Liberal Party holds 7 of 17 seats.

In the NT, Labor took power for the first time in 2001. The Country Liberal Party holds 4 of 25 seats.

Combine these numbers with the federal situation (and counting the Country Liberal Party as a branch of the Liberals), where they hold 75 lower house and 35 upper house seats, and the Party currently holds just 262 of 818 parliamentary positions across the country. Compare this with Labor, which has 420 - just over half of the national total. It's quite possible that after the coming federal election, Labor will double the Liberals' representation across the country.

The reason I've counted the number of seats each party holds is because they are the lifeblood of a functioning political party. The more seats you hold, the more people you can employ (on the public purse). Political staffers are the party - on both sides - in these days of low membership. Winning elections is about manpower. Without seats to hold and jobs to give out, the Party continues to atrophy.

Compounding this, during the Howard era the political alliance forged by Menzies of urban professionals and suburban/rural conservatives has been strained to breaking point. There are now effectively three separate components to the Liberal Party. The Doctor's Wives - to the extent that they are still there at all - are sidelined and angry about the policies of the government. They are now placing the traditional blue-ribbon seats at risk.

The rural conservatives are still there, but although they have always been opposed to the social policies of the Doctor's Wives, they're now finding themselves alienated by the economic policies of the leadership (WorkChoices being the salient example).

The leadership is itself the third component. It is radically right-wing both socially and economically, and is distant from both of the traditional bases established by Menzies. We are seeing that happen before our very eyes during this election. A dark, dark cloud is descending on the Liberal Party of Australia, and John Winston Howard must accept a great share of the blame.

 

[DaveW]

Swings and roundabouts, Charlie. It was only last year you were arguing that Labor's constituencies were too divergent!

Some recently history...

In 1989, the election of the Goss and Field governments in Queensland and Tasmania respectively left NSW's Nick Greiner as the only Liberal premier or PM. But the wheel quickly turned when Victoria, SA and WA threw out their long serving state Labor govts in the early 90s.

Similarly by 1996, Goss and Field were history and the country had elected a federal Liberal govt for the first time in 13 years. Once again NSW bucked the trend; Bob Carr had been elected a year earlier and was now the only Labor premier or PM.

And by 2002, all the states were back in Labor hands. And in 2007, the federal govt looks like going the same way.

It's tempting to think of Labor as Australia's natural party of government in the 21st century. But I don't believe future events will bear that out. And Liberal/Coalition govts, before long, will start being elected in the states. I wouldn't be surprised if it's NSW that once again starts the trend - with the election of Barry O'Farrell in 2011.

 

[CharlieG]

Swings and roundabouts, Charlie. It was only last year you were arguing that Labor's constituencies were too divergent!

Sure. But Opposition is a pretty dangerous time for a broad-based political party. Winning keeps the tribes together - it's when they're losing that the knives come out.

Some recently history...

In 1989, the election of the Goss and Field governments in Queensland and Tasmania respectively left NSW's Nick Greiner as the only Liberal premier or PM. But the wheel quickly turned when Victoria, SA and WA threw out their long serving state Labor govts in the early 90s.

Similarly by 1996, Goss and Field were history and the country had elected a federal Liberal govt for the first time in 13 years. Once again NSW bucked the trend; Bob Carr had been elected a year earlier and was now the only Labor premier or PM.

And by 2002, all the states were back in Labor hands. And in 2007, the federal govt looks like going the same way.

It's tempting to think of Labor as Australia's natural party of government in the 21st century. But I don't believe future events will bear that out. And Liberal/Coalition govts, before long, will start being elected in the states. I wouldn't be surprised if it's NSW that once again starts the trend - with the election of Barry O'Farrell in 2011.

Possibly. But it's impossible to know what three and a half years of irrelevance will do to them in the mean-time.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

In Tasmania, Labor has been in office since 1998 and has been in government for 12 of the past 18 years. The Liberal Party currently holds 7 of 25 lower house seats and no seats in the independent-dominated upper house.

Traditionally the Librals don't run candidates for the Tas Legislative Council. Its one of the few things I respect them for.