Will we make the finals?

[1990crow]

For the first time this year I think its safe to say we can start talking about finals. Knocking off Geelong was certainly our first major move forward to suggest we can match it and even beat the top sides. With I think seven games to go, results pending with the other clubs trying to win eight spot (Sydney, Carlton and North Melbourne), if you were to put your hard earned on our club today, would it be that we actually make the finals?

Furthermore, if we do make it... are we likely to bow out early or are we geniunely capable of doing some damage and potentially going further than last year? Time will tell but Im liking what I am seeing at the moment. Probably because I watched the trash be put up at the start of the year . Should be good to see how we go against the Bulldogs at home (am more confident today that this is a good chance), Brisbane away.. always a tough away trip and against St. Kilda and Collingwood. Its not out of the realm of possibility that we're not out of it yet.

Now, I know its optimistic but when youve won four games in a row and can legitamitely see us continue winning, I see no reason why we wont make the finals and do some damage. Although... I was booking my tickets for the Prelim when Tippett had kicked that goal and cheering like a maniac at the MCG on that cold, miserable Saturday night in September against that team that wears no colours .

 

[pjcrows]

9th or 10th.

 

[Crows32]

I think we'll just miss out unfortunately. We left our run too late imo.

How many wins would we need to make it?

 

[King Elvis]

Honestly, I don't care whether we do or not.

Keep doing what we're doing, if we make it, great, if we don't, great - we get a longer pre-season and break.

 

[Allbetsroff]

We're 1 game out, we'll make it.

 

[writeoff]

At the end of this round we will be 1 win and a lot of % out of the 8.

Our run home:
Power (Port home game)
Richmond (MCG)
WBD (AAMI)
Lions (Gabba)
Collingwood (MCG)
St Kilda (AAMI)

Honestly we could lose all of those games (although I doubt it). However lets say we beat Port, Richmond & the Lions we would still need to beat one of WBD, Saints & Collingwood. The WBD would probably be our best chance but that would mean that we would need to win 8 games straight.

Sydney's run home:
Melbourne (MCG)
Geelong (ANZ Stadium)
Hawthorne (SCG)
Fremantle (Subiaco)
WBD (SCG)
Lions (Gabba)

Carlton's run home:
WCE (Subiaco)
Collingwood (MCG)
Essendon (MCG)
Richmond (MCG)
Geelong (ES)
Freo (Subiaco)

All three contenders play 3 games against teams currently above them on the ladder and 3 against teams below them. Effectively the Crows would need to win 2 more games than whoever loses tomorrow out of Carlton and Sydney to make up the % difference (unless the Crows can have some massive wins). For this reason I think we will miss out on the final 8.

I hope that I am wrong!

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

I'll tell you who are the two players who will be gunning the hardest for us to make the finals: McLeod and Goodwin.

It's an interesting dynamic in sporting clubs that the 'big picture' view might be that we've uncovered some young players, making the finals this year is just a bonus but really this group won't hit their straps for a couple of years.

That view might be universally held outside the club and possibly by some of the realists within though they'd never admit it. And it might be correct too. But not every player will be part of this future. The timeline of the individual doesn't always align with the timeline of the team.

For Goodwin and McLeod, this is it. This is (most probably) their last chance. They won't be thinking finals are a bonus.

 

[fourtheye]

Could go either way really, I tend to think it's still a tall ask to make it. We'd have to beat some good teams, and while Fridays result was a great step forward, it remains to be seen if we can maintain that level of play against Collingwood, St Kilda and the Bulldogs - one of which I believe we have to beat to have any real chance of getting in.

 

[taylor_walker_13]

We will win four of our last six and hopefully 'jag' a win against Collingwood or St Kilda that will give us 11-12 wins and enough to make it.

 

[Allbetsroff]

At the end of this round we will be 1 win and a lot of % out of the 8.

Our run home:
Power (Port home game)
Richmond (MCG)
WBD (AAMI)
Lions (Gabba)
Collingwood (MCG)
St Kilda (AAMI)

Honestly we could lose all of those games (although I doubt it). However lets say we beat Port, Richmond & the Lions we would still need to beat one of WBD, Saints & Collingwood. The WBD would probably be our best chance but that would mean that we would need to win 8 games straight.

Sydney's run home:
Melbourne (MCG)
Geelong (ANZ Stadium)
Hawthorne (SCG)
Fremantle (Subiaco)
WBD (SCG)
Lions (Gabba)

Carlton's run home:
WCE (Subiaco)
Collingwood (MCG)
Essendon (MCG)
Richmond (MCG)
Geelong (ES)
Freo (Subiaco)

All three contenders play 3 games against teams currently above them on the ladder and 3 against teams below them. Effectively the Crows would need to win 2 more games than whoever loses tomorrow out of Carlton and Sydney to make up the % difference (unless the Crows can have some massive wins). For this reason I think we will miss out on the final 8.

I hope that I am wrong!

I think you underestimate how crap Carlton and Sydney are.

 

[daicos21]

Hope you guys make it, simply cos you are a better team than North,Blues and Swans.

 

[Moonwatcher]

So, are we baracking for Carlton?

Carlton seem to have an easy draw and would keep us at bay even if they lost tomorrow. Sydney have a tough draw and are the most likely to lose matches even if they play well.

 

[PCORF]

Maybe we can finish in the 8. All depends. We need at least 3 more wins to be a chance. If we miss out of the 8 we can look to next season with a real positive. Its a bit like 2004, played awful but finished strongly and in 2005 look what happened.

In reality we're a chance to win all our remaining games. The game against Collingwood in R21 is going to be huge.

 

[rayven]

Current Form we will win every game barring the Collingwood one(which we have significant incentive to lift for). Evidently we have loads of improvement in us.

West Coast hitting form could be our Friend.

 

[SebastianVettel]

The requirements haven't changed - we have to keep winning. Nothing more to it.

The requirements may not have, but the form certainly has, in a massive way. You'd have to be really, really disappointed if we didn't make it, given the effort and performance from last night.

Personally I think we can, and I think we will.

 

[Allefgib]

I'll tell you who are the two players who will be gunning the hardest for us to make the finals: McLeod and Goodwin.

It's an interesting dynamic in sporting clubs that the 'big picture' view might be that we've uncovered some young players, making the finals this year is just a bonus but really this group won't hit their straps for a couple of years.

That view might be universally held outside the club and possibly by some of the realists within though they'd never admit it. And it might be correct too. But not every player will be part of this future. The timeline of the individual doesn't always align with the timeline of the team.

For Goodwin and McLeod, this is it. This is (most probably) their last chance. They won't be thinking finals are a bonus.

I can think of a few worse players to expect big performances from when they are most required

Good point Carl. Not just Spack-filler.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

I can think of a few worse players to expect big performances from when they are most required

No it's definitely a good thing. Their desire to go out on a high and their attitude of playing every game as your last can certainly rub off on the other players. It's something everyone can get swept up in.

A shot at a premiership isn't always wrapped up in a large box with a pretty ribbon where you can see it coming a million miles off either. I can't ever remember thinking in 1997 that a flag was our destiny. Are the best teams Geelong, Collingwood, St Kilda, Bulldogs and Hawthorn looking as far ahead of the pack as the leaders have the last few seasons?

This might be our best chance.

The logic that we'll be a better team once all our kids have got 50+ games behind them doesn't always ring true. For Tippett, Walker, Sloane and the rest of our players this might be their only shot. I know... don't be ridiculous, they've got their whole carers ahead of them... but I bet Edwards, McLeod, Ricciuto, Johnson and Goodwin didn't think after 1998 that they'd never play in a grand final again.

 

[oldcrowgirl]

At the end of this round we will be 1 win and a lot of % out of the 8.

Our run home:
Power (Port home game)
Richmond (MCG)
WBD (AAMI)
Lions (Gabba)
Collingwood (MCG)
St Kilda (AAMI)

Honestly we could lose all of those games (although I doubt it). However lets say we beat Port, Richmond & the Lions we would still need to beat one of WBD, Saints & Collingwood. The WBD would probably be our best chance but that would mean that we would need to win 8 games straight.

Sydney's run home:
Melbourne (MCG)
Geelong (ANZ Stadium)
Hawthorne (SCG)
Fremantle (Subiaco)
WBD (SCG)
Lions (Gabba)

Carlton's run home:
WCE (Subiaco)
Collingwood (MCG)
Essendon (MCG)
Richmond (MCG)
Geelong (ES)
Freo (Subiaco)

All three contenders play 3 games against teams currently above them on the ladder and 3 against teams below them. Effectively the Crows would need to win 2 more games than whoever loses tomorrow out of Carlton and Sydney to make up the % difference (unless the Crows can have some massive wins). For this reason I think we will miss out on the final 8.

I hope that I am wrong!

I hope that you are wrong too. We need to win the next 4 games, do-able but nothing is set in stone. A showdown is always a challenge, and Richmond are seriously on the improve. If we win the next 4, I think we are in.

I agree with the above analyisis up to the point where you wrote off the teams below Sydney, Carlton and Adelaide. Richmond, Melbourne (to a lesser extent) and the Weagles are all capable of causing an upset, especially the Weagles at Subi. Sydney, Carlton and North all have trips to Subiaco, in fact Carlton have two.

I ran the ladder predictor this morning. I came up with us defeating Freo and Dogs, to play St kilda or Collingwood in the prelim, without being too outrageous in my predictions. Just a little bit

 

[oldcrowgirl]

ADDIT.

I really liked the post match chat with Bernie, when he clearly said that while the mathematical possibility of playing in the finals exists, the Crows will be playing with the goal of making the finals.

 

[crowralph]

i think the next 2 games are as far as we need to look at present. it could come down to %, so for that reason and form we need to beat both port and tiges by more than 10 goals each. not exactly sure how this would affect our %, but if we are going to win the required amount of games, we need to smash these 2 sides and we need %.

 

[Pilchard_Adams]

One thing people havent mentioned is our form away from AAMI...

We have only beaten WC away. I know that was a great win, but they were bottom. We have lost every other away game, and if we make the 8 we will be playing 5th away. Probably WB, Freo or Hawks away, all of which are hard tasks.

While I think we will make the 8, im not too confident on how far we will progress. But making the 8 after being 0-6 is an AFL first, and something the playing group could be proud of.

 

[Pilchard_Adams]

i think the next 2 games are as far as we need to look at present. it could come down to %, so for that reason and form we need to beat both port and tiges by more than 10 goals each. not exactly sure how this would affect our %, but if we are going to win the required amount of games, we need to smash these 2 sides and we need %.

2 60 point wins would roughly raise our % by 8%

 

[Damp Squarie]

I'll tell you who are the two players who will be gunning the hardest for us to make the finals: McLeod and Goodwin.

For Goodwin and McLeod, this is it. This is (most probably) their last chance. They won't be thinking finals are a bonus.

Liked McLeods attack on the loose ball against Ablett twice on Friday night.

It could come down to beating St Kilda in our last game.
I think if the selectors get it right on the day and with a small bit of luck, we can make the finals.

 

[brucetiki]

Dare to dream!

I'd expect us to win against Port, Richmond and the Brisbane Lions.

Western Bulldogs at home is 50/50, but I'd expect us to beat them.

So it comes down to the last two matches against Collingwood and St Kilda. We'll have extra motivation to beat Collingwood to atone that semi final loss last year, while we'll have more to play for in round 22 than St Kilda, so both games are very winable.

If we somehow win every game for the rest of the year, then we can finish as high as 6th. If we only lose to one of Collingwood and St Kilda, we can still finish as high as 7th. If we lose to both St Kilda and Collingwood, we can still scrape into 8th spot with some favourable results.

Some exciting times ahead I reckon, but we need to take this one game at a time, starting with the Showdown next week.

 

[SebastianVettel]

Win every game and we can potentially even snag a home final.

Did the ladder predictor before and has us (maybe slightly optimistically) going 5-1, losing to Collingwood, finishing 7th and heading off to Melbourne to play Hawthorn.

*Starts remembering 2007...... Massie....... Thompsons kick...... Franklin*shudders*