Wisbey's Top 10

[Streaker]

As I do each year, here are my predictions for “U18” 2003 AFL draftees:-

I judge them to have “made AFL” if they have become a regular member of their team in at least two seasons (i.e. not merely occasional games when their club's list is decimated by injuries).

The categories reflect players about whom I feel most confident in making predictions.

Will be TOP SHELF i.e. household names (in draft order):

There is no “complete package” gimme this year (eg Goddard, Judd, Hodge, Ball, Riewoldt). All the following have flaws of some kind but I believe all are capable of reaching genuinely top-bracket status in an AFL team.

COONEY, Adam (1) [WBD] 6'1" dynamo match winner. Not flawless but has range of attributes.
WALKER, Andrew (2) [Car] Tall athletic dasher / flyer. A bit raw, outside at this stage but very good upside.
SYLVIA, Colin (3) [Mel] Powerhouse 6' “ruck-rover”/forward. Strong overhead but needs to improve kicking accuracy.
TENACE, Kane (7) [Gee] 182cm genuine footballer. Road Runner. Meep! Meep! ... whoosh! 200 gamer
CLARKE, Raphael (8) [StK] Enigmatic, immature but a special X-factor talent. Athletic 188cm. If some disturbing elements hadn’t crept in in ’03 I’d declare him “the next big thing”. Still a decent chance he will be.
TROTTER, David (9) [Kan] Classy 6'1" utility. Injured '03 but definite AFL
DUNN, Ryley (10) [Fre] 184cm tough utility. Genuine footballer, plays tall, wide range of attributes. I’m assuming he will improve kicking accuracy. (Is otherwise plug ‘n play).
WATERS, Beau (11) [WCE] Bottom-age fearless 6'1" desperado. Kicking is bit iffy but he plays tall, fierce and uncompromising.
BUTLER, Sam (20) [WCE] Classy, smart, versatile 6'1" bottom-age inside midfielder/HFF. Unheralded late starter but a natural. Smooth mover, big upside.
SCHMIDT, Tim (29) [Syd] Vanilla size but skilled. dynamic, long-kicking powerhouse midfielder.

Although I wouldn't consider this a definitive view of the 10 best recruits from 2003 it certainly looks good from our perspective having 2 players that should become household names.

 

[franky_mojojo]

There are a few players u left out that i may have included.

Kepler Bradley
Farren Ray
Brock Mclean
Tom Roach
Brent Stanton
Brent Hartigan (taken at pick 70, but can still play)

 

[Streaker]

Originally posted by franky_mojojo
There are a few players u left out that i may have included.

Kepler Bradley
Farren Ray
Brock Mclean
Tom Roach
Brent Stanton
Brent Hartigan (taken at pick 70, but can still play)

These players were considered further down the line

Wisbeys Full Post can be found here Subject: My predictions for “U18” 2003 AFL draftees by Colin Wisbey


Will be AT LEAST GOOD (in draft order):
(A couple are extremely late picks but I call it as I see it).

RAY, Farren (4) [WBD] “Flower Power comes to AFL”. Courageous but unaccountable will of the wisp 6' speedy winger. Despite skinniness, would be in top category if I knew for sure that he could improve his kicking.
STANTON, Brent (13) [Ess] Classy, daring, vanilla-size athletic utility. Borderline top category.
WATTS, Fergus (14) [Ade] 196cm jumping-jack marking forward. Great ethic, intensity. Still raw but big improver. Lacks some pace but potential ability to help out in ruck adds to his value.
WILLOUGHBY, Josh (16) [Syd] Slight and small but slippery and efficient genuine footballer.
JONES, Chad (24) [Kan] 19yo 196cm quick, athletic leading forward. Good ethic. Good mark, reliable long kick. Project due to skinniness and newness but very good upside. Could even turn out in time to be best tall from the draft. (Is not U18 but I include him as he only misses by 6 months and is a newcomer to footy).
SHAW, Brayden (32 F/S) [Col] Traditional rover - combination of his father and uncle. Natural footballer, leader.
ADCOCK, Jed (33) [Bri] Pacy 6' bulldozer utility. Not at all stylish but deceptively quick and effective in a sledge-hammer way.
JOHNSON, Chris (36 F/S) [Mel] Under-developed but classy utility. Moves well, good overhead. Should be versatile. Injury-impeded ’03.
ROACH, Thomas (37 F/S) [Ric] 6’ dasher who takes them on. Strong overhead and clean. I tossed up whether to include him as he has to improve his kicking and his decision-making under pressure but his upside is promising.
DYSON, Ricky (44) [Ess] Pacy but outside long-kicking wingman/flanker. One-sided and needs to lift accountability
and the hurt factor of his possessions but is potential game-breaker.
SHAW, Heath (48 F/S) [Col] Bit unconventional but is versatile, courageous, consistent, left-field smart.
JACKSON, Daniel (53) [Ric] Seriously athletic 6'1" late starter with great potential. Unlikely to start AFL career until ’05 due to school commitment. Bargain.
SURJAN, Jacob (P10) [Por] Athletic, desperate, 180cm dasher. Works as hard when the opposition has it as when his team has it. A coach’s delight. The bargain of the ’03 drafts.


EARLY PICK QUERIES (in draft order) – I wouldn’t be that surprised if they make it but I have concerns whereas many people would label them "definite":

MCLEAN, Brock (5) [Mel] Chunky 6' tireless, courageous, hard-nut. Lacks polish and speed but is footy-smart, indefatigable and gives 110%.
BRADLEY, Kepler (6) [Ess] Gangly athletic giant. Despite reputation, is not quick. Huge heart and motor. Runs hard, far and relentlessly. Very poor natural balance. Iffy kick - Awkward, unbalanced kicking style. What AFL role suits?
MOODY, Matthew (23) [Bri] Ill '03. 187cm, leaps, marks, goals. Creative. Looks classy but doesn’t stamp himself on a game enough.

 

[theorangeapple]

i have a good feeling about butler. i think our recruiting staff have done well. we seem to like the lesser profile players at around 20 cause we went with kerr at 18 which was a risk cause he only played PSA.

i have growing faith in the club's drafting after we hit a flat spot 2-5 yrs ago.

 

[theorangeapple]

streaker do u no where i could get a longer review of waters and butler??? as in the the wiz biz 1.

the link for wiz biz 2 isnt working....for me at least.

 

[Streaker]

I jus happen to have a copy of Wisbeys profile for our draft picks. This will probably be long so I will break it down to each player


Beau Waters (West Adelaide)

187/85 bottom age left foot (can use right foot on occasions) HBF/utility.
Bottom-age courageous 6'1" desperado. Nicely-built, athletic, very physical. Iffy kick at this stage. Definite AFL. I rank him at 10 but he won't go that early. Ready year 1.

*STYLE LIKE: Bizzell (with a fair amount of Archer chucked in for good measure).

*TRADEMARK: - Big grab at the back.

*SUMMARY ASSESSMENT, RECOMMENDATION:
- Gets own ball, strong overhead and is courage and physicality personified.
- Quite quick off the mark.
- Leaping, athletic, determined dynamo.
- Disposal needs to improve.
- Different build to Archer but there are similarities in attributes. A slippery opponent (especially a FP) can bother him (at the moment!) but he can play on a short or tall and at either end.
- He is mainly seen as a HBF but I can see bigger things for him. With a decent conditioning program, I believe he has the potential to become another Jason Johnson onballer... but 3" taller! That's how much impact I think he might be capable of having on a game down the track and why I have ranked him as early as No. 10. He has a lot of work to do to get to that point however but is only bottom age at the moment.

*DISPOSAL, DECISION-MAKING, SMARTS:
- Good depth but kicking accuracy lets him down a bit too often. Being fitter might help as it will give him a little extra time.
- Is basically one-sided in terms of quantity although he is comfortable to choose to do a right foot pass on occasions.
- Doesn't feed much - mainly kicks. I'd like to see him improve the ratio, to look for running team mates more.
- Decision-making can be clever or not so clever but on balance is generally "OK". Is bigger on brutality than finesse.
- In his desperation, he is sometimes inclined to dive for it, thereby taking himself out of the contest for the resultant spill. On some of these occasions it would be better to be less exuberant and take it on the bounce or just protect it from his opponent with his body.
- Can overdo the physicality on occasions and concede a needless free. I'd rather that than vice versa though. He'll have some AFL opponents looking over their shoulder.
- Sometimes flies for marks against team mates. Needs to exercise a bit more discretion.

*HANDS:
- Usually quite clean.

*OVERHEAD MARKING:
- Apart from his desperation, overhead marking is his biggest strength. Not only does he play taller than his 187cm but he crashes packs, really attacks the ball in the air.

*ATHLETICISM, INTENSITY, ETHIC, CONSISTENCY:
- Runs low to the ground which can make him look slowish, his DC speed times were very soso, and there seems to be some perception that he lacks a bit of pace. However, I actually rate his pace in a game as "good", at least over a shortish distance, and almost certain to get even better. He can improve his pace further by learning to use his arms which, at this stage, just flap alongside his hips. Conditioning of body shape and fitness would also help. I suspect he currently gets by more on determination than on fitness. Very good closing speed and that's an important asset.
- His DC Beep and 3Km times were good but when I look at him I can't help thinking he has plenty of scope to further improve hardness and shape of body and to lift his match fitness. I believe he has the potential to become another Jason Johnson ... but 3" taller!
- Big leap, very athletic.
- Great work ethic. Desperation and courage by the bucket-load. Always keeps his eyes on the ball. Fierce tackler - launches himself. Runs hard to chase or to get or to present option. Good 1%ers. Team man. Will leave his opponent to run to team mate's free opponent. Accountable. Spoils well.
- Generally agile.

*SCI (SCOPE FOR CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT):
- He never looks particularly fit to me, despite his good DC beep and 3Km. I suspect there is much scope to refine his body and turn him into a seriously athletic AFL player.

*AFL VERSATILITY:
- May be best suited to run-with or HBF but should be very versatile. I prefer him in roles other than BP against a slippery opponent. Ultimately I think he is capable of being a tall Jason Johnson. (see above).

*QUERY:
- Disposal

*SOME STATS:
- Stats summary '03 U18 Champs:
Averaged 12 disposals and 4.7 marks in 3 U18 Rep games.
Kicks vs feeds: kicks are routinely predominant. 26-8
Tackles: 5
Gets own ball?: 7/34 TD were HR. 2 HBG
Kicks long vs short: even
Kicking accuracy: 9/26 were ineff/clang incl 2 clang
Handball accuracy: 2/8 were ineff/clang incl 2 clang
Marking: 14 (incl 6 contested)

*OTHER STUFF:
- All Aust 2003.
- AIS- Played SANFL Reserves, Seniors '03. Broken jaw late season.

 

[Streaker]

Sam Butler (Central District)
186/77 bottom-age right foot (dual-sided) inside mid-fielder/ HFF.
Was possibly the surprise packet of the '03 Champs. Only slim, but nice height for midfielder. A late convert from footy to soccer but is a natural in both skills and smarts and is athletic as well. And he is bottom-age. A very attractive package.
Bottom line: I believe he is definite AFL material. Good size for a middy, great vision, poise and skills. A late convert to footy (from soccer) but great upside. Ready year 2, maybe earlier if he bulks up quickly enough.

*STYLE LIKE: L Hayes

*TRADEMARK:
- Move well through traffic to gather, then show good vision and quick thinking to spot feed to a team in the clear, then immediately run on.
- Run hard to present, mark in front 1-1 on the lead, then accurate relaxed pass.

*SUMMARY ASSESSMENT, RECOMMENDATION:
A really smart, cool, clean, natural footballer. A newbie to footy but classy.
Can get his own ball and is also good at presenting an option is space. Overall I'd describe him as "inside".
Athletic, chases hard. Backs himself but is also very accountable to the nearest opponent.

*DISPOSAL, DECISION-MAKING, SMARTS:
- Not a physical hard nut in the usual sense but is excellent in close, especially at centre bounce. Great vision, poise, balance, disposal. A natural footballer. Very consistent, reliable. Gets own ball but also excellent link man. Good at creaing space and finding space to link.
- Very reliable disposal, hand or foot, either side, short or long, especially given that he gets many of his possessions under pressure. Relaxed nice kicking style (although slightly low take) - excellent depth, accuracy. Nice mix of feeds and kicks. Generally favours long option with kicks.
- Good at "blink & you miss it" feeds under pressure.
- Can create opportunities out of nothing close to goals but his non-set shots for goal are a mixed bag.
- Seldom uses non-preferred left foot but is adept with it, even under great pressure on the run.
- Excellent traffic management. Very good at stop plays - he mainly sits under the ruckman, reads the ball very well, shows quick reflexes, good awareness and clean hands both getting and giving.
- Reads play well, spots & feeds well, and is good decision-maker in close or on the run, even under the greatest of pressure.
- Great poise. Always looks for options - spots them quickly with good vision but will take as much time as he needs until an option presents. Everything he does is purposeful.
- Very cool, confident but occasionally shows poor awareness of the pressure he is under when he has the ball, resulting in him getting nailed or smothered. In those cases, he either takes too long or tries to do too much. Not too often and possibly of the learning curve involved in crossing from soccer and having to adjust to tempo.
- Keeps arms free when tackled.

*HANDS:
- Very clean

*OVERHEAD MARKING:
- Very clean. Pack marking is not really part of his style but he is rarely beaten 1-1 and he tries for front position.

*ATHLETICISM, INTENSITY, ETHIC, CONSISTENCY:
- DC/SS results were quite poor except for speed (which was reasonable). However, I have to go on what I saw in games, where he covered a lot of ground, showed good speed and agility, pushed himself hard and marked reliably overhead, especially on the lead.
- Good off the mark, good pace.
- Great ethic. Charges from one opponent to the next to apply strong pressure. Fierce tackler.
- Excellent balance. Keeps his feet.
- Good evasion and doesn't mind taking them on.
- Excellent lateral recovery / agility - definitely no big turning circle for this boy. You don't wrong foot him and find yourself free of pressure.
- Slim but quite strong already and will have a nice build.
- Is fairly quiet verbally, even on the ground, but is very determined and plays with a good combination of poise and intensity.

*SCI (SCOPE FOR CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT):
- Soccer convert so plenty of scope.

*AFL VERSATILITY:
- Should be very versatile. Ideal for midfield but could play anywhere down the flanks very efficiently (and not just on a pinch-hit basis).

*QUERY:
- Nothing significant.

*SOME STATS:
- Stats summary '03 U18 Champs:
Averaged 18 disposals and 4.3 marks in 3 U18 Rep games.
Kicks vs feeds: mixed
Tackles: 6
S.P. clearances: 9 incl 2 cbc & 4 other b/u (impressive as wasn't onball that much)
Gets own ball?: 15/55 TD were HR. 5 HBG
Kicks long vs short: routinely favours long. 21-5
Kicking accuracy: 5/31 were ineff
Handball accuracy: 3/24 were ineff/clang incl 1 clang
Marking: 13 (incl 0 contested)

*OTHER STUFF:
- AIS
- Played SANFL Reserves '03.
- Soccer.

 

[Streaker]

Daniel McConnell (Eastern Ranges)

190/84 bottom-age right foot (but can use left if needed, even on the run) versatile tall.

Very bottom-age (10 days from being too young) prospect who disappointed me somewhat this year, despite fairly healthy stats but had various injuries throughout and is a decent chance of AFL. As a package of size and physical and skill attributes he is very attractive but he has quite a lot of improvements to make.

I rank him at 22, ahead of some big names, but I do so on perceived upside rather than '03 form, and very much because of the shortage of talls in this draft. There are other players I have ranked later than him but in whom I have more confidence. Will probably go 2nd round. Ready year 3, maybe year 2.

*STYLE LIKE: McPhee?

*TRADEMARK:

- Mark on lead
- Quick gather from edge of traffic

*SUMMARY ASSESSMENT, RECOMMENDATION:

McConnell is a kid I earmarked when I saw his U18 debut early '02. Even as a below-age gangly forward pocket he looked to have a bit of "it". And he probably he still does. Certainly his record at U16/17 has been excellent and he started '03 with a good reputation. I'm still very open-minded but, frankly, I've been underwhelmed with his '03 performances (I didn't see his Ballarat game). I know he has had a troublesome finger most of the year and other niggles throughout the year but I wish I had seen more in '03 to vindicate my original gut feel and his reputation.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if he starts to please me more once he is over his finger problem and is injury-free. As it stands, he has to win me over again somewhat. Nevertheless, my quite high ranking reflects my optimistic assessment of his upside.

He has filled out impressively into a good frame 190/84 and is extremely bottom age. Were he very top age, he would be a fair way down my list. I'm cutting him a fair bit of slack by picturing what he might be like in almost 18 months and comparing that with my current perceptions of his significantly older peers. Clearly he has talent. However he goes missing a bit and, although his TAC U18 stats read quite well, I have not seen him completely impose himself on any U18 game (TAC or U18 trial) in '03 (I didn't see his North Ballarat game of 31TD, 9 m, 6g).

A very bottom-age 190/84 potential KPP who could also play flank and who should be able to play either end, and is fairly athletic (especially good endurance) sounds very attractive.

I'm still optimistic but slightly uncomfortable. I don't doubt he can murder a vanilla undersized or sluggish opponent. I just want to see him a few more times against a quality tall opponent and/or a quick one.

I have seen him a lot but the game that most impressed me was as HBF vs WA in the '03 U18 Champs. Moved well, applied pressure, got 10 hard ball gets. 21 disposals (6th of them "wasted" though), including 14 in the first half.

Disposal, both hand and foot need to improve and he needs to actually show more overhead more often.

*DISPOSAL, DECISION-MAKING, SMARTS:
- Not a great decision-maker but mixed bag, not bad. He is an intelligentI kid. t's just that he is not a natural footy thinker.
- Doesn't seem great at reading the play or the ball (even at reading the flight on occasions).
- Clever when trying to lose opponent - both in-close & on a lead.
- Equally, however, his opponent can sometimes lose him without him apparently noticing. I'm not sure about his concentration. I think he means to be accountable but he is a ball follower eg he might run his opponent up the ground or vice versa then stay 50m from the play and not notice his opponent has gone back and is 30m free in space 60m away.
- Kicking accuracy is mixed but needs to improve. Feeding (i.e by hand) is usually OK, sometimes excellent, but he can do a shocker every so often. In fairness, very few of his possessions are free in space so I have to allow a bit for the "under some degree of pressure" factor.
- Kicking style can let him down and has the following faults:- Low take. Poor high release, sometimes double-handed release, and he lets the ball slip out instead of guiding it. Tilt to the left. Close drop. Sometimes too short a plant and/or a low connect. Sometimes kicks across his body. Right arm often just hangs by his side. Follow through needs works and can be quite bent leg. A tendency to jump high at impact.

*HANDS:
- Not currently very clean, at any height, but I have to make allowances because of his finger problem. Quite clean beforehand (pardon the pun).

*OVERHEAD MARKING:
(see above)
- Can take a big grab but I haven't seen many this year. He can have 15-20 possessions without a mark of any sort. (Although he had a big day in that regard against Nth Ballarat and I am factoring that day into my assessment of his potential). See comments below re finger problem.
- Has found it hard to shake off a problem with a finger that not "only" dislocates but apparently pops out at an unseemly (not to mention extremely painful) angle. Went into '03 U18 Champs under that injury cloud & didn't play game 1. Subsequent recurring problems with finger so we have to be sympathetic to marking attempts in '03. This is reflected in the fact that he averaged 4.0 marks a game in his first 6 games '03 but only 2.7 in his latter 6.
- I had noted a tendency to take chest marks actually on his chest instead of out in front but, given the finger problem, I'll ignore that.
- Has an 8cm reach advantage compared to the average player of his height.
- Tries for front position.
- His leads can be stuttering.

*ATHLETICISM, INTENSITY, ETHIC, CONSISTENCY:
- Looks the part physically and will have a great build for AFL. Overall he is quite athletic but looks to have scope to harden his body shape and condition him further. Has bulked up quite a bit since '02 so may be still growing into his body somewhat, in which case some of the following may improve naturally in time.
- Often lacks a bit of acceleration off the mark. Adequate, not great, pace over a short distance but is quite good once he has momentum. Comparing 2 slightly similar type, Cosgriff would beat him by about 2m over 15-20m, especially through being quicker off the mark. I think McConnell's lack of quickness off the mark in a game is partly physical and partly lack of intrinsic anticipation. When he is in on a lead, he is by definition the creator of the run and in that situation can seem quite quick off the mark.
- Excellent endurance.
- Not a bad leap but he is also very much aided by an 8cm reach advantage compared to the average player of his height.
- Is quite agile.
- Variable balance. Perhaps goes to ground too often.
- Nice body use quite often though.
- Nice evasion.
- Often keen, but too often ineffective, tackler. Needs to tackle more often with his body instead of his hands. Is improving though.
- He needs to show more intensity at times (although definitely improving). He is inclined to put his hands in instead of his body. On the other hand there are times when he is desperate under a pack, or lunges to smother, or does a thumping punch out. 2nd efforts are good. Team man. Chases, blocks. Useful 3rd man up at throw ins.
- I must stress that he does get his own ball.

*SCI (SCOPE FOR CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT):
(see above)

*AFL VERSATILITY:
- Played mainly CHF in TAC but, AFL-wise, probably best initially as HBF. With a couple of improvements (especially accel off the mark), perhaps FB down the track. Plays both ends at U18 level but may be best suited to straight-ahead roles. I doubt that he reads the play well enough to play LMID but maybe 3rd tall defender. Has good enough size to be a chance for another key position depending on how his development goes. Could pinch hit as HFF and certainly FP. As an U18 CHF his best is quite impressive (eg beat Chaplin on points in a trial game) so that is the option many people would see but, AFL-wise, it depends how he develops. I'm not ruling CHF out by any means.

*QUERY:
- Kicking accuracy.
- Sped off the mark (except on a lead)
- Overhead consistency

*SOME STATS:
- TAC: Averaged 19 disposals in 11 TAC games. (I really shouldn't count one game in June as he was injured. at the start). 3.3 marks, 3.5 tackles, total 12 goals-11. 68% of disposals are kicks. 17% of his possessions are marks. At least 20 disposals in 7 games, including a 31. 6 or more marks in 2 games but 2 or fewer marks in 4 (not including the June injury game). Officially no marks in 7 of 16 games '02-'03 (not including the June injury game).
- Mid-way trend .. % change in disposals was 24%. % change in marks was -33%. % change in tackles was 65%.

- Stats summary '03 U18 Champs:
Averaged 14 disposals and 1.5 marks in 2 U18 Rep games. 21D against WA.
Kicks vs feeds: mixed
Gets own ball?: Yes. 7 of 26TD were HR. 11 HBG (10 vs WA).
Kicks long vs short: n/a
Kicking accuracy: 6/15 ineff/clang incl 3 clang.
Handball accuracy: 2/11 clang.
Marking: 3
Tackles: 6

*OTHER STUFF:
- AIS
- Troublesome finger through much of '03.
- No Morris Medal votes.
- 4 Coaches Award votes (1 game).

 

[Streaker]

Paul Johnson.
197/96 top-age left-footer (but dual-sided).
Lion-hearted hard-working hard-running large fwd/ruck with special small-man skills but NQR for an AFL tall.

(Forward) style like combination of Molloy (Bris) and Cummings.
(Ruck) style like Primus.

Has small-man skills which a big man has no right to have. Unfortunately, is NQR in some big-man skills which a big man is expected to have.

Will probably go first round but I have serious concerns about whether some attributes and techniques effective for him at U18 level will translating well to AFL level . I do not share the opinion of those who see his future as a versatile ruckman who can also play FF, CHF or CHB. I see any AFL future as primarily a FF (in a role similar to Molloy’s at Brisbane) who can handle forward line ruckwork and can pinch-hit as relief (but not man) ruckman. Against the weight of general opinion, I believe a 2nd round pick is fair and a first round pick is too high a price, given the concerns. Johnson is probably the player who has caused me the greatest grief in assessing AFL potential.

Arguably the standout big man in the U18 Champs series, and certainly in the TAC comp, as both ruck & FF but his competition was generally sub-standard, especially in ruck. At U18 level, Paul is both a delight to watch and an enigma. Has improved quite a lot since last year.

For his size, his straight-line agility is outstanding and his straight-line pace is usually quite good once he has built up momentum. He is exceptionally clean-handed and reliable below the knee even within a pack or through serious traffic. .He is incredibly adept at half-volley pickups at top pace - either takes off the ground or diving marks. He regularly sets up play by charging through traffic, taking the ball amazingly cleanly, then feeding off.

His work ethic is exceptional. He never gives up and he covers a lot of ground. He contests the ruck or marking contest then immediately pushes himself to remain an active participant until the ball is cleared. Even then, he will typically run on, with a sense of purpose, to the next play downfield. His 2nd and 3rd efforts terrific. He will regularly chase hard to try to pressure an opponent. He will regularly throw himself fiercely to smother an opponent’s kick or feed, including smothering the ball off the boot. Stats tell only part of his picture – one-percenters are a big feature. Although Paul is not quick as such, he pushes himself hard to get to, and actively participate in, any contests in which he can play a part. He will run flat out for 40mark just to block for a team-mate. His team ethic is so impressive. He is very unselfish. In particular, he will instinctively block for a team-mate after feeding the ball. He will clear a path & then follow up to present again “just in case”.

And he has terrific evasion skills for a big man.

And he thinks quickly when he has, or is going for, the ball.

And he has great awareness of where team-mates are around him.

…. BUT

… he rarely take contested overhead marks and his current rucking techniques, while regularly successful against most U18 rucks ( who are usually much shorter and/or skinnier) are likely to be exposed at AFL level. It’s not just a technique thing. Paul’s techniques can be worked on and improved to some extent, but the major part of the problem seems to relate to instinct and judgement and that’s why I am not confident he can adequately address my concerns.

And that’s the sticking point, together with the fact that his impressive agility in a straight-line or when he has the ball does not translate to lateral agility when the ball is loose or an opponent has it. In the latter circumstances, Paul has improved a lot since last year but is still cumbersome. It is easy to wrong-foot Paul and his recovery at such times is so slow that the opponent simply runs off him each time.

I see Johno’s best AFL prospect as a leading full-forward who, although not strong overhead, does lead hard and direct, has clean hands in front, and open the forward line up. Not just a Cummings (WCE) but, importantly, also a Molloy (Brisbane) in his ability to create opportunities and protection for other forwards. That, coupled with the ability to manufacture special goals from close in and the danger he presents with any kick for goal within 60mark, are where his real strength lies. That he can at least pinch-hit / relieve in ruck and take the ruckwork deep in the forward line is a plus.

To focus on a few aspects of where he is now:-

Marking:

Is excellent on the lead but rarely take contested overhead marks.

He is officially 197/96. Therefore, if he is playing key forward (typically FF), it might seem logical to man him up with your best big strongman. I believe, however, the best opponent is someone tallish (but not necessarily more than 6’2” even) and disciplined who has the pace, leap, mobility and concentration to wear him like a blanket on the lead, and to run off him at every opportunity.

Paul is a very strong, purposeful, steam-train lead. He hits the ball at top pace and has vice-grab hands if he can take the ball out if front. If you are even a metre behind him on the lead and the ball comes no higher than head height, he will mark it every time. And when he does he will hurt because he is such a reliable thumping kick, especially for goal.

If the ball presents a genuine overhead marking contest, Paul struggles big-time. He will always give you a big chance because he gives you unlimited access to the ball. He instinctively tends to run at the ball in such a way that he gets to a point underneath the ball and then jumps virtually straight up. He doesn’t have a feel for jumping up and INTO the ball. Nor does he steady at the last moment to shield the ball from the opponent’s reach. The bottom line is that Johnson is often not well-balanced at impact and, most importantly, the opponent doesn’t have to reach around Johnson’s body, let alone his arms, him for the ball. To compound things (or possibly connected) Paul often has hard hands overhead and struggles to even get hands to ball if he is coming from behind or mid-pack. Put simply, Paul‘s overhead marking usually consists of him running to the spot and jumping vertically straight up to catch. If he doesn’t have clear access to both those aspects, he is in trouble. Hence, he is usually in trouble overhead.

Ruckwork:

Is dual-handed and very clever with many of his ho's - can do monster punch hitouts to the front, or straight-arm jolt punches sideways, but he does try to direct hitouts & does have good awareness of where his "rover" options are. That’s the good news.

At ruck contests, tends to get to a position underneath where he expects the ball to drop. At ball-ups, as with his overhead marking, this typically means he finishes up having to jump straight up vertically instead of coming at an angle with a run up. This leaves him susceptible to a big-leaping ruckman jumping over the top of him and with greater purchase of the ball. Additionally, at throw-ins, he often tends to lean back excessively (a la J Madden). This allows him to out-body U18 rucks - he holds his arms out to the side to ward off opponent but in doing so he often leans way back leaving himself poorly-balanced to adjust if the throw-in is not tossed to the exact right spot.

At throw-ins, he will try to out-body his opponent almost every time.

He will bully any short ruckman who tries to out-body him. At U18 level they don't come much bigger & stronger than him. Most U18 rucks, including in the U18 Championships, are much shorter than Paul. Many are barely 6’3”. However, Johno is no Primus and nor is he exceptionally tall by AFL standards at barely 197cm and he is unlikely to get away with it at AFL level - opposition rucks will just jump over the top of him.

I believe the key to beating Johnson at ball-ups is oppose him with either a big leaper or someone of greater height and good leap, or similar or greater in both height and strength. At throw-ins, I would either let him do his wrasslin’ thing with the normal opponent but have a leaper (even fairly small) either come over the top late (a la J Cloke) or rush in front to intercept the ball. If you have an athletic huge-leaper, again not necessarily super tall but with a good sense of timing, who can come in late over the top of Johnson or early in front from the side, you don’t even need to have another person physically engaging him.

Agility:

There are two conflicting aspects to his agility. When he has the ball, his evasion skills are disarmingly outstanding – side-stepping or wrong-footing an opponent or selling the dummy. However, when the opponent has the ball or the ball takes a sideways bounce, Paul is easily wrong-footed and, when that happens, his slow reaction to recover, his poor turning circle and his lack of acceleration off the mark are such that he misses the train completely. His turning circle has improved since last year but is still a major weakness for the game he tries to play.

SUMMARY:

- Thumping reliable left foot kick but also get good depth and accuracy with his right. Consistent, even on the run. Excellent goal-sense.
- Always tries to play in front. Always.
- Has amazing clean ball-handling skills below the knee for his size – he is especially clean at picking up the half volley in front of him. (The trouble is, if it veers from his straight line path he is in trouble - even if he only has to veer off 45degrees).
- Very good with both hands (and arguably seems to use his right even more than his left) – both handball and hitouts, both depth and accuracy. Except for overhead marking, his hands are clean, quick and reliable. He is good at feeding the ball out, even under great pressure.
- Amazing on-field work ethic – running, presenting, competing, one-percenters, 2nd efforts, blocking, tackling, pressuring, etc
- Very intense at both man and ball. Fierce & desperate tackler.
- Great awareness of team-mates around him.
- Excellent decision-maker – any thinks quickly in doing so.
- Excellent evasion skills for his size
- Agility is a mixed bag – what he does well he does brilliantly, but his recovery when wrong-footed is poor.
- Pace and acceleration are somewhat of a mixed bag. Is not flash of the mark and can sometimes look lumbering but on other occasions, when he has some momentum up and/or is on his own terms, he can look very mobile for his size. - Never gives up.
- As a hard-leading forward he is terrific if the ball is out in front of him at head height or below - has vice-like grip running flat out taking the ball in front of him when he has even the slightest break on his opponent.

Query:

- Sub-standard contested overhead marking
- Ruck technique which may not succeed at AFL level
- If he is forced (i.e. not by his own choice) to change stride from his straight-line path he is in trouble and is way too slow to recover. It is very easy to wrong-foot him & run off him - either on the run or when he is standing the mark - & that's going to hurt him at AFL level, not just around the ground but even as a key forward they will run off him.
- Will he have weight problems which may impact his strengths (pardon the pun)? 96kg but has an Adonis build at 18yo. Officially added 6gk in the past year.
- stamina? (I don’t have any reason to believe he does or does not have stamina, so it is a query. He doesn’t tend to ruck long stints - his local team has two dedicated rucks + Johnson + R Brown, and Vic Metro had Cloke + part-timers Walsh & Brown. Certainly he runs hard and covers a lot of ground “non-stop”).

Some stats:

* In 2 full TAC seasons, has never got more than 20 possessions and only 3 times has taken more than 6 marks. Hasn't taken more than 5 marks in any game since April.
* TAC Avg disposals 15, up 25% on last year.
* Tac Avg marks 3.8
* 50% improvement in TAC avg handballs in 2nd half of his season
* 33% decrease in TAC avg marks in 2nd half of his season
* 35% decrease in TAC avg tackles in 2nd half of his season
* Has most average frees against in the TAC comp – has reduced from 2.6 mid-year to 2.2 though. (Was 4th last year)
* Morrish Medal votes in 5 games.
* Avg 12 disposals in U18 Championships – but a TOTAL of only 5 marks in 3 games.

 

[Streaker]

Adam Selwood (Bendigo Pioneers)

187/75 top-age right-foot HBF/utility.

Skinny, tallish desperate run-all-day utility play-reader who backs himself but has sub-standard disposal.

Style like (slightly taller) Dean Laidley (?).

Will possibly go late 2nd round or early 3rd but disposal, hands and potential physical strength make him a 4th rounder for me. My jury is out. Seems to be sensible and a genuine improver, which is very much in his favour. If he has an AFL career, I see him initially as a HBF who can also play wing. Down the track I see him potentially in a run-with role but he would need to become more accountable and back himself less.

Is a real goer - desperate, not much science, not very clean hands or disposal, but a real team man who can be relied upon to do his best for the team.

HBF or winger who also plays onball for his U18 club. Has improved enormously since last year (observation supported by all major stats up about 70%).

Although skinny, is as courageous as they come and has fantastic stamina. Has great desperation which, coupled with athleticism, agility, recovery, reflexes and passable speed make him extremely hard to beat in one-on-one contests of any sort, despite his lack of physical strength currently. At his weight he can be out-bodied and sometimes brushed away but he will keep throwing himself after you, at you, over you and in your path.

Reads both the play and the ball very well and backs his ability to do so. This means he likes to run forward of the ball whenever he thinks he can. It also means he is happy to leave his opponent in order to attack the ball or present an option. This in turn means his opponent does not lack for opportunities to slip into space. Likes to get the ball and play on quickly whenever possible.

- Disposal / Decision-making:
Is essentially a one-sided kick (right). Occasionally attempts a left foot kick but usually unsuccessfully.
Both his kicks and handballs very often tend to be floaters, lacking depth and power and are often up ‘n under. He can sometimes also do a pinpoint short pass or sharp handball but I believe I would be flattering him if I said AFL-standard and non AFL-standard were 50/50.
His decision-making is a mixed bag. On balance, I would describe him as an unreliable decision-maker. He often doesn’t look for an option. In fairness, he often does too. What I can’t understand is that he regularly seems to be blind to short options. He typically kicks for length – to a contest. Many times I have seen him have a set kick, appear to be looking for options, have one or even two about 30m away, yet choose (?) to overlook them in favour of kicking to a contest further downfield. Whether he sometimes lacks confidence in his ability to find a 30m target, or whether he simply doesn’t see such options (which is hard to believe) or whether he just thinks “longer is safer”, the bottom line is that he wastes an unnecessary number of his disposals.

- Hands:
Whether overhead or below the knee, he has days when he has the stickies and days when he has hard hands. Overall, I would not describe him as a one-grabber (although on his day he can take a nice overhead mark). I don’t know yet whether there is a pattern and, if so, whether it is just confidence or nature of opponent or standard /pace of the game or what. Against SA he had hard hands, overhead and below, throughout the day. Later that month he marked and handled everything cleanly against Northern Knights. That example makes it look like a standard of competition thing but even in the TAC comp his marking in particular can be up one week and down the next.

- Intensity, ethic:
Courage and desperation personified. Will throw himself onto an opponent’s boot or into his path. Launches himself when tackling. Regularly backs back into marking contests. Will stand under a hospital pass or run into oncoming traffic without flinching.
From a prone position, will tackle one opponent then throw himself at the next opponent. Regularly.
Chases hard. Runs hard, covers a lot of ground.
Good team man. Excellent work ethic. Good one-percenters. Can be relied upon to block and will run 20m to do so. Is tenacious but lacks strength. Is a fierce and desperate tackler but sometimes his lack of physical strength means he doesn’t impede the opponent as much as he deserves.

- Reading the play:
Reads play and ball very well.
eg while watching Goddard getting the ball, he snuck "2 plays" downfield to present - nice work ethic, clever anticipation, initiative.
Is clever at leaving his opponent in order to present for a team-mate, or dropping back to mark across halfback - usually seems to know when to leave his man but he does take the risk. Is a good mopper-upper across halfback. Reads the ball well, especially in flight. Good spoiler at a marking (or even over the top of a ruck) contest.

- Speed, Athleticism:
Speed acceptable. I’d back him to beat almost anyone over 3km but not over 30m.
Likes a dash, especially from halfback. Very athletic. Good leap.
Can burst through traffic brushing opponents aside (albeit via momentum rather than strength).

Consistency:
Form last year was up and down week by week like a yoyo. Not completely predictable this year but consistency has improved immensely.

Query:
- Disposal by hand or foot – tends to lack power and reliability.
- Decision-making.
- Strength, ability to add enough weight. Should be OK but looks to have a frame like a 187cm Dean Laidley. At this stage, although a fierce tackler, his tackles can sometimes be brushed aside even at U18 level. Can be bumped off the ball without too much effort (although he recovers very quickly).
- Right knee heavily strapped in June at least. OK? (I ask due to twin Adam’s knee history).

- Avg 27 disposals, 5.2 marks, 4.4 tackles per TAC game (only 5 games 2002). Over 70% of his disposals are kicks (same in 2001 and 2002).
- All major TAC stats up 50% to 190% on his 11 games last year. (He only played 5 games in 2002 though and came off the bench a lot in 2001).
- Polled 3 votes 2002 Morrish Medal (1 game).