Opinion With two rounds to go, what is your pass mark for 2017?

[dazbroncos]

I wonder if this time last season we were thinking the Bulldogs would be winning the flag with injury and form they were showing. I didn't based on how we beat then twice in 2016, so I thought they were very beatable. So if the Bulldogs can do it, there's no reason why we can't. But having said that, I'm reminded of how the Swans has smashed us a couple of times now and I seriously can't see how the current game plan will change that this year. Adelaide finally found their mojo against us in our last game against them, and we coughed up a biggish lead against GWS earlier this season to grind out an after the siren draw. Maybe we can make a Prelim, and given the flaws in this team, and that's not a bad result. The fact we have seen top 4 finishes now for a few seasons is a credit to the club.

But do we have the personnel to take us to the flag? I have said many times I doubt it. It's not the stars that are a problem for us, it's the bottom 6-8 players who are our achilles heel.

Agreed - and when they are on I think we can jag it.

The issue is their inconsistency - and when they are off they are REALLY off...

But if they get on and flatten that consistency curve out - we are neck deep in it. Still needs luck - but its possible.

Go Catters

 

[catempire]

We are one of 3 sides that could win it IMO.

Nice post. Who of Swans, GWS and Crows are you discounting?

 

[JohnZ]

Nice post. Who of Swans, GWS and Crows are you discounting?

WARNING: Longish Post

Not whiskers, but out of those 3 I actually have as many question marks on GWS and Crows as I do on us. Less on Sydney but still some. Will list in my order of who I think is in line for the flag.

Sydney: Great club who likes to jump out of the gates and clamp down a game. Finals suits them. I believe a club will eventually be able to get them at their own game, probably a Melbourne or Essendon who can (to a degree) match them on the inside and out run them on the outside. That's about the only way to beat them

Adelaide: Great forward and back lines. Midfield has been found wanting, but has improved immensely this year. Very easy to apply pressure on and limit goals out the back which is how they get their score up so high (see all of JJs goals this year). Still not solid on them in finals, not sure if their midfield can back it up 3 games in a row under the heat, the same criticism I have of Geelong.

GWS: On paper, should win the flag. Unfortunately they have a lot of players who play for themselves and not the team. I think Heath Shaw is unfairly criticised, he has premiership experience, he knows what it takes and I all though it looks like he's blaming everyone, I think he's trying to make them accountable to the team. They stood up in the QF last year only to be beaten by the eventual premier in the PF by 6 points. An unknown quantity in Finals, so would take Richmond over them just because we know what the pea-hearts will dish up. And if we win, then Richmond is the 95% fav to play us at the G friday night.

Geelong: More even than Adelaide, less talent than GWS and less grit than Sydney. What more can you say really. The club has done well to get us to this position playing so many kids (we had 9 less than 50 games v Richmond, not sure v Collingwood). Hoping that Buzza, Motlop, Bews, and Guthrie lift heading into finals. We know what Selwood, Danger, Hawkins, Smith, Duncan, Taylor, 2e, Mackie and Stewart will bring. Kolo has been great on the wing the past couple of weeks as well.

For me, pass mark is making the GF. And as long as it's not Sydney, out of all the teams playing finals we have the most GF experience, and can use that to our advantage. I am really hoping we come out of the blocks v GWS and smash them early, we haven't done it all year, and if we can't do it this Saturday night, I have no faith we'll get it done v Sydney. Adelaide did it once v us, but I'd back us in to keep them within range if it starts slipping, we had a bad night, fumbled the ball and like we did v Collingwood, didn't take the most of our opportunities and let easy goals out the back, which is Adelaide's bread and butter.

1. Adelaide
2. Geelong
3. Richmond
4. GWS
5. Port
6. Sydney (Port will have a better %)
7. Melbourne
8. Essendon

Week 1
Adelaide v GWS
Geelong v Richmond
Port v Essendon
Sydney v Melbourne

Week 2
GWS v Port
Richmond v Melbourne

Week 3
Adelaide v Melbourne
Geelong v GWS

Week 4
Geelong v Melbourne

For us this is the ideal situation, Melbourne knocks out Sydney and Adelaide for us, and we can easily take care of GWS at the MCG (we can't play GWS at Kardinia Park in Week 3 due to MCG contractual obligations).

 

[kickazz]

Our first quarters in finals since 2011 have been shithouse.

I want to be up by at least a goal at quarter time in each final we play. These guys need to learn how to hit the ground running in finals.

If it turns out we are too young to run a game out properly, so be it. It's the attitude that needs fixing.

Need to win one final at least surely.

 

[catswhiskers]

Nice post. Who of Swans, GWS and Crows are you discounting?

Crows. they could get to the big dance but thats it for them IMO. So that leaves 2x Sydneys and us for mine.

 

[Vdubs]

I wonder if this time last season we were thinking the Bulldogs would be winning the flag with injury and form they were showing. I didn't based on how we beat then twice in 2016, so I thought they were very beatable. So if the Bulldogs can do it, there's no reason why we can't. But having said that, I'm reminded of how the Swans has smashed us a couple of times now and I seriously can't see how the current game plan will change that this year. Adelaide finally found their mojo against us in our last game against them, and we coughed up a biggish lead against GWS earlier this season to grind out an after the siren draw. Maybe we can make a Prelim, and given the flaws in this team, and that's not a bad result. The fact we have seen top 4 finishes now for a few seasons is a credit to the club.

But do we have the personnel to take us to the flag? I have said many times I doubt it. It's not the stars that are a problem for us, it's the bottom 6-8 players who are our achilles heel.

Great post again.
Last year Doggies avoided us in September, but I can not be that sure they wouldn't have ended their misery against us given their momentum at that stage. But that is one way- avoid your nemesis. Would be better if we didn't have fear of one team, and thought we were a chance against them all. Even Richmond will think they are a great chance against us at the G in September essentially because they are.

 

[catempire]

Crows. they could get to the big dance but thats it for them IMO. So that leaves 2x Sydneys and us for mine.

Bold call. I am starting to believe in Adelaide. Always doubted their midfield but their improvement there is hard to deny. But take out Sloane in a big final and I wouldn't be backing the Crouch boys agains the best of the best.

 

[Vdubs]

Crows. they could get to the big dance but thats it for them IMO. So that leaves 2x Sydneys and us for mine.

Tigers with a home G final will be right up there after a double chance.
Can't write off any team with speed and desire so that puts Port, Demons and Bombers as dangers too.

 

[Landgraft]

Bold call. I am starting to believe in Adelaide. Always doubted their midfield but their improvement there is hard to deny. But take out Sloane in a big final and I wouldn't be backing the Crouch boys agains the best of the best.

Greenwood is the big ?, in my opinion. Sloane and the Crouches isn't enough but Greenwood has added the hard edge they were missing and could be the difference.

I think they'll win a QF then drop the prelim, because byes.

 

[year of the cat]

You don't trade first rounders for Dangerfield, Henderson and Tuohy without having an expectation that you are hoping that it will result in a flag. That said, I think a "pass mark" should be making a GF. We got to the prelim last year and were humiliated. My idea of a successful season is one that is better than the previous one so therefore making a GF should be the minimum standard of achievement.

Clearly a lot though has to go right in a season for this to happen. We've had more than our fair share of injuries this year which may see a moderation of expectation. I'm personally hopeful, but in no way confident, that we can get to the last day. We'd need a clear run from here on in which would include a win this weekend. I just can't see us coming from below 2nd to reach a GF. Could happen, but very unlikely.

Fingers crossed.

I'm more hoping that the U12 Girls team I coach wins the flag this weekend in any case.

 

[MarkCatsFan]

Grand Final for me. We have had a torrid time in finals since our last premiership so winning 2 would be a MASSIVE monkey off of our back, I'd be devastated to lose a GF, but I think I could stomach it knowing that we'd taken that next step and would feel very good going into next season

 

[catswhiskers]

Tigers with a home G final will be right up there after a double chance.
Can't write off any team with speed and desire so that puts Port, Demons and Bombers as dangers too.

Any team can win it if they make the finals. Thats a certainty.

A team from the bottom half of the 8 is less likely to win it. Thats the history.

The bye changes the "dynamic". That was demonstrated last year.

So it is all about opinion again. I just think on the evidence of this year GFC are right up to there eyeballs in this one - and I expect them to win this weekend even without JSelwood, Blicavs and Cockatoo. Assuming there are no more left field events to contend with (like a player injured early) as has happened too often since June 15. Luck will play a big role as usual in this final series. We are due some good stuff.

Rd 13 v WCE away ........................... Cockatoo down in first few mins.................................................... LOSS
Rd 14 v FREO home............................ JSelwood concussion in first few mins. Lang and Stewart followed - lucky WIN in the end.
Rd 15 v GWS away............................. Menzel withdrawn just before the game......................................... .. DRAW
Rd 16 v LIONS away............................ All clear...................................................................................... GOOD WIN
Rd 17 v HAWKS away (OK our home game) Danger off injured in first quarter... The rest was extroardinary...... WIN
Rd 18 v CROWS away ........................... Blicavs down in third quarter ......................................................... .. LOSS
Rd 19 v BLUES away........................... All clear..........................................................................................GOOD WIN
Rd 20 v SWANS home........................... JSelwood mid second term. Ankle.................................................. LOSS
Rd 21 v TIGES home............................. All clear (Caddy down early for tiges)........................................... ...GOOD WIN
Rd 22 v PIES away............................. All clear.............................................................................................WIN

 

[JohnZ]

Would be nice to go a game with Cockatoo finishing with a goal rather than a jacket.

 

[Grimoz]

I personally think that we had the swans after the first quarter in last years prelim, i think if we hadn't started so poorly we would have won it so as long as the guys use that as motivation this year I see no reason why we cant at least reach a prelim or further. I would love to see Danger have his day, god knows he has deserved it the last couple of years, even better if we manage to do it against the Crows, he will then cement himself as a Geelong Legend.

 

[JohnZ]

I personally think that we had the swans after the first quarter in last years prelim, i think if we hadn't started so poorly we would have won it so as long as the guys use that as motivation this year I see no reason why we cant at least reach a prelim or further. I would love to see Danger have his day, god knows he has deserved it the last couple of years, even better if we manage to do it against the Crows, he will then cement himself as a Geelong Legend.

We were in the game at 3QT v Swans this year as well. 15 points wasn't much, they just jumped us again in the 4th (the umpiring didn't help). Eventually we'll get them, just hopefully before richmond eventually gets us

 

[Mr Meow]

If Selwood is in and Hawkins doesn't get suspended again, it's a prelim at minimum. Probably one that goes down to the wire rather than a catch up affair. If we hadn't had this mini horror run of injuries and suspensions to disrupt continuity (too many unknowns) I'd be saying a GF in a weak year. For the majority of the year Adelaide and Sydney have been the best teams. GWS and Geelong a step below but with absences spread throughout. Richmond and Port are smokies, Essendon and Melbourne even more so. It is a very even season so I wouldn't be pencilling in or writing anybody off yet.

 

[bulletproof]

I have a feeling that unless Richmond or Port do something stupid on the weekend, the Swans could be bundled out in week 1 or 2.

There is an interesting psychology to being Flag Favorites and coming from the bottom half of the draw. You may not have that singular focus on the first final.

In 2012, there were a few (not as many as Swans this year admittedly) saying we could win the Flag after wins over Hawthorn and others late in season. We didn’t turn up in first quarter, against a hungry opponent with nothing to lose. Game over. Melbourne or Essendon would be dangerous in a similar situation.

I think the Crows are clearly the team to beat.

 

[DanA]

There's been what I consider some major mistakes by the coaching staff in finals which I'm hoping the will avoid this year.
1. They've gone too tall lacking contested ball winners. I hope we don't go selecting Stanley and making the same mistakes.

2. We've tended to select players that have been underdone. If Joel isn't ready make the tough decision no matter how much he wants it.

 

[DanA]

The team I am hoping to see is:
FB: Stewart Henderson Mackie
HB: Touhy Lonergan Bews
C: S.Selwood Duncan Murdoch
HF: Cockatoo Taylor Menegola
FF: Parffit Hawkins Menzel
R: Smith, Dangerfield, J.Selwood
I/C: Blicavs, Koldjashnij, Thurlow, C.Guthrie

 

[Sttew]

I haven't seen premiership-standard football from *anybody* except the Swans.

This time last year you probably said the same thing. Look what unfolded

 

[dazbroncos]

Pass mark huh...

Given where we are vs where the AFL metric of where we should be, id say making the 8 is a pass as with the handbrakes applied to us for being up for so long, we, like the Hawks, are bucking the trend.

With that said, this list should be Top 4 - and it is so that's a tick.

As for Finals, given we made the PF last year, we really should expect no less again. Is suggest that on pure list talent, Final 4 is about right for us.

From there, it really comes down to who is available, health, luck and whether it's "your day"

If we get that luck, and its our day, we can take it all - as seen when we beat WB, Crows in Rd 11 or so etc.

However, we also have the Swans a few weeks ago to remind us all vividly of the lows.

If we can make the GF, then its anyone's guess.

Of course I want a Flag - everyone does - but I reckon winning a Flag with 9 debutants in the same season is about as hard as it gets - and its probably beyond us. But you never know.

GO Catters

 

[Goggin Our Best]

The team I am hoping to see is:
FB: Stewart Henderson Mackie
HB: Touhy Lonergan Bews
C: S.Selwood Duncan Murdoch
HF: Cockatoo Taylor Menegola
FF: Parffit Hawkins Menzel
R: Smith, Dangerfield, J.Selwood
I/C: Blicavs, Koldjashnij, Thurlow, C.Guthrie

Very good team that - if Menzel was unrestricted and free in his action and movement - then you could really say there isnt really a weak link in that team .

 

[BotsMaster]

I personally think that we had the swans after the first quarter in last years prelim, i think if we hadn't started so poorly we would have won it so as long as the guys use that as motivation this year I see no reason why we cant at least reach a prelim or further. I would love to see Danger have his day, god knows he has deserved it the last couple of years, even better if we manage to do it against the Crows, he will then cement himself as a Geelong Legend.

We certainly outscored them after 1/4 time but it wasn't enough to bridge the gulf due to Sydney's lockdown style game