Analysis Team Goals for 2015

[Jon Douglas]

Thanks for those stats Abet. Good stuff.

I think Clark has played ruck and KPF so these stats will be mixed up a bit - but they do suggest they he could play CHF or even ruck and we would be a better team for it (having no real CHF or first ruck most of last season).

I am optimistic that he could be a decent player for us in either position mentioned. And we will be a better team for it. How much - well maybe a goal or so better team.

We need Caddy, GHD and Guthrie (and probably Bews) to really make some decent progress as much as we need Clark (and/or Stanley) for us to be a force this season IMO.

But both scenarios are quite possible in my mind.

Then it will depend on injuries, whether we can get a good small forward who can kick goals and how improved are the other teams from last year.

Even if we can see an improvement on paper to our 2014 team - maybe Port and Sydney or even Hawthorn may think the same.

 

[Cursed Cat]

Great OP Teriyakicat, and plenty of interesting and well-thought out replies.

Personally I think at least some of the issue comes down to the game style/plan, and the team's ability to execute it.

The team employed a strong forward press at times last year, which basically amounted to flooding our own forward line, with the half-backs pushing right up to the centre square - it was often effective in that we maintained the bulk of possession, with some teams struggling to clear their D50 for entire quarters - however it wasn't a particularly conducive plan for actually scoring, as we'd often have 40 players crammed into our half of the ground, allowing the forwards zero space with which to work. In addition to curtailing our own scoring in an effort to maintain possession, we were also all too often burnt by the better teams on the rebound - a side might take a good 10 minutes to work their way through our press, but once they'd adjusted their structure they could routinely slice us open by going wide of, or over the top of the press.

When we set up in a more traditional manner we looked better moving the ball into our F50 (imo), but often found it difficult to go head-to-head with the better midfield units and therefore often gave up as many goals as we generated; i.e. too many easy centre clearances and too many unharried F50 entries by opposition midfields due to our own midfield not having the experience/talent/fitness/depth that we once had.

I think a more settled midfield unit would help in addressing a lot of these problems, unfortunately I'm not sure we'll see that in 2015.

 

[Teriyakicat]

Great OP Teriyakicat, and plenty of interesting and well-thought out replies.

Personally I think at least some of the issue comes down to the game style/plan, and the team's ability to execute it.

The team employed a strong forward press at times last year, which basically amounted to flooding our own forward line, with the half-backs pushing right up to the centre square - it was often effective in that we maintained the bulk of possession, with some teams struggling to clear their D50 for entire quarters - however it wasn't a particularly conducive plan for actually scoring, as we'd often have 40 players crammed into our half of the ground, allowing the forwards zero space with which to work. In addition to curtailing our own scoring in an effort to maintain possession, we were also all too often burnt by the better teams on the rebound - a side might take a good 10 minutes to work their way through our press, but once they'd adjusted their structure they could routinely slice us open by going wide of, or over the top of the press.

When we set up in a more traditional manner we looked better moving the ball into our F50 (imo), but often found it difficult to go head-to-head with the better midfield units and therefore often gave up as many goals as we generated; i.e. too many easy centre clearances and too many unharried F50 entries by opposition midfields due to our own midfield not having the experience/talent/fitness/depth that we once had.

I think a more settled midfield unit would help in addressing a lot of these problems, unfortunately I'm not sure we'll see that in 2015.

That's it in a nutshell, I think CC. Very good.

That flooding certainly didn't help players like Hawkins but it was probably Burbury, McCarthy, Varcoe, etc. who were meant to be taking advantage of the press and kicking those tight shots from close in. I remember feeling very frustrated that we didn't have anyone around 40+m out, kicking those long goals a la Mackie/Duncan specials. The players that we had waiting outside, on our HF line, were all the Old Brigade, too- not given to chasing opponents who were fleet of foot.

We've been getting sliced open on the rebound for a few years now- I'm not sure if the coaches have figured out which cattle to put where, to deal with that problem. Having Varcoe running back and forth all game late last year probably helped a bit but we needed 2 of him. Smedts didn't work out. I'm still not sure that we can fix that problem but I suspect a few of the new players at the club might have been recruited with a view to solving that problem.

 

[Cursed Cat]

That's it in a nutshell, I think CC. Very good.

That flooding certainly didn't help players like Hawkins but it was probably Burbury, McCarthy, Varcoe, etc. who were meant to be taking advantage of the press and kicking those tight shots from close in. I remember feeling very frustrated that we didn't have anyone around 40+m out, kicking those long goals a la Mackie/Duncan specials. The players that we had waiting outside, on our HF line, were all the Old Brigade, too- not given to chasing opponents who were fleet of foot.

We've been getting sliced open on the rebound for a few years now- I'm not sure if the coaches have figured out which cattle to put where, to deal with that problem. Having Varcoe running back and forth all game late last year probably helped a bit but we needed 2 of him. Smedts didn't work out. I'm still not sure that we can fix that problem but I suspect a few of the new players at the club might have been recruited with a view to solving that problem.

agree with your post TC, but especially with the bolded; it's been a glaring issue post-2011 - we have often been powerless to slow an opposition run of goals.
I won't go on about it too much for fear of derailing (er, your) thread, but it's a problem which I think can largely be laid at the feet of the midfield mix we've had, although really it's a team-wide responsibility to change the mindset *as soon* as the ball is in opposition hands.

 

[Teriyakicat]

agree with your post TC, but especially with the bolded; it's been a glaring issue post-2011 - we have often been powerless to slow an opposition run of goals.
I won't go on about it too much for fear of derailing (er, your) thread, but it's a problem which I think can largely be laid at the feet of the midfield mix we've had, although really it's a team-wide responsibility to change the mindset *as soon* as the ball is in opposition hands.

You can't derail this thread by discussing any goals for 2015, despite the original heading being a rather clever play on words
I agree wholeheartedly that it is a TEAM-WIDE responsibility. Every player needs to flick the switch from attack to defence very quickly. We do have a few players who are more attacking, then there are those who are probably a bit slow- but if Lingy could be the best tagger in the game, why can't even our fastest players catch a cold in a room full of infection most days??

I used to think our weakness in this area was due to the fact that our 'burst' footy left the boys a bit flat afterward and any good opposition could capitalise on that if they were fit enough but, last year, we couldn't even get our burst footy happening like we used to do. Those red-time goals- 2 or 3 at the end of most quarters. Or a quick flurry of goals early in a quarter, then dig in and defend, slow the pace down for a bit- that has all gone now, sadly. Personnel? Game plan change? We can only watch and wonder and hope that our new season brings us more exciting footy to watch from the team that has given us so much!

 

[Cursed Cat]

You can't derail this thread by discussing any goals for 2015, despite the original heading being a rather clever play on words
I agree wholeheartedly that it is a TEAM-WIDE responsibility. Every player needs to flick the switch from attack to defence very quickly. We do have a few players who are more attacking, then there are those who are probably a bit slow- but if Lingy could be the best tagger in the game, why can't even our fastest players catch a cold in a room full of infection most days??

I used to think our weakness in this area was due to the fact that our 'burst' footy left the boys a bit flat afterward and any good opposition could capitalise on that if they were fit enough but, last year, we couldn't even get our burst footy happening like we used to do. Those red-time goals- 2 or 3 at the end of most quarters. Or a quick flurry of goals early in a quarter, then dig in and defend, slow the pace down for a bit- that has all gone now, sadly. Personnel? Game plan change? We can only watch and wonder and hope that our new season brings us more exciting footy to watch from the team that has given us so much!

I really don't know, but I suspect it comes down to personnel as much as anything; not having enough players in the Goldilocks zone who are at just the right level of fitness and experience to match it with the very best sides.
Whereas once we were the 'red-time' specialists, slamming on a handful of goals when the opposition were starting to think about their oranges, more often than not it seems we've been on the receiving end of these 'bursts' over the past couple of seasons .. maybe stats wouldn't actually bear that out, not sure ..
very good point made with the Lingy example; it's not always about 'spread' and 'leg speed'.

 

[cynical]

we just aren't that good

we have a slow backline that doesn't provide much run and carry
we have a weak midfield and rucks that get killed in the centre square and don't add those easy clearance goals
our forward setup is one dimensional

I hope we actually setup to fix those problems even if it means some short-term pain, instead of just playing with a wall of giant defenders and exploiting weak forward setups

 

[Partridge]

we just aren't that good

we have a slow backline that doesn't provide much run and carry
we have a weak midfield and rucks that get killed in the centre square and don't add those easy clearance goals
our forward setup is one dimensional

I hope we actually setup to fix those problems even if it means some short-term pain, instead of just playing with a wall of giant defenders and exploiting weak forward setups

To me the midfield is developing; there's no way that Guthrie, Caddy or Horlin-Smith have seen anywhere near their best footy yet. Nor Duncan, nor Motlop for that matter. We're simply too impatient to accept any development.

Do agree about putting long term plans in place though. They can't continually reshuffle the same names hoping that the years 2016 and 2017 will never arrive.

 

[Farmer2Goggin]

We can compare ourselves to anyone, Rf- it's just number crunching, to see how far off the mark we are. And we can look at the top teams and wonder how we can achieve numbers like they're putting up.

A raw cut of the data points to the Points For as the weakness in 2014.
If you take out the 2014 points for and average the prior 7 years you come up with an average of 2458 points
If we had kicked that in 2014 and kept the points against our % would have been 137% - a big improvement on what we achieved - the Defence can certainly hold their heads high - remarkably consistent effort over a long period.

 

[Teriyakicat]

A raw cut of the data points to the Points For as the weakness in 2014.
If you take out the 2014 points for and average the prior 7 years you come up with an average of 2458 points
If we had kicked that in 2014 and kept the points against our % would have been 137% - a big improvement on what we achieved - the Defence can certainly hold their heads high - remarkably consistent effort over a long period.

yes- that's a very healthy percentage, F2G.

So we need to get help for Hawkins- check!
We need to grab some crumbling types- check!
And we need to strengthen the midfield and get our rucks on the park.

 

[David the Cat]

we just aren't that good

Yea…we only won as many games last year as…..oh yea…everyone else…...

 

[Lana]

I just want to see us play good, consistent football that's enjoyable to watch. I hope we do so in one of the following two ways.

1) Win the ball out of the middle and hold the ball inside 50 with a strong press with an aim to force as many turnovers as possible, don't give the opposition at lot of time and space. Our 2011 model.

or assuming that we can't win it in the middle than

2) Flood back, play a couple of players behind the ball, direct fast counter attacks, either run and carry in waves or long kicks
backing Hawkins, Clark, Stanley and Bartel, 1 on 1. Back out players to make less mistakes then the opposition. Our 2013 model after we lost to Brisbane.

Play the veterans when they're in good form and back the kids to replace them when there not. Rest our older players when we can, especially those closer to the fringe.

 

[cynical]

Yea…we only won as many games last year as…..oh yea…everyone else…...

home and away wins yay

we were a long way from a flag as shown with another embarrassing finals series

 

[Jon Douglas]

Great OP Teriyakicat, and plenty of interesting and well-thought out replies.

Personally I think at least some of the issue comes down to the game style/plan, and the team's ability to execute it.

The team employed a strong forward press at times last year, which basically amounted to flooding our own forward line, with the half-backs pushing right up to the centre square - it was often effective in that we maintained the bulk of possession, with some teams struggling to clear their D50 for entire quarters - however it wasn't a particularly conducive plan for actually scoring, as we'd often have 40 players crammed into our half of the ground, allowing the forwards zero space with which to work. In addition to curtailing our own scoring in an effort to maintain possession, we were also all too often burnt by the better teams on the rebound - a side might take a good 10 minutes to work their way through our press, but once they'd adjusted their structure they could routinely slice us open by going wide of, or over the top of the press.

When we set up in a more traditional manner we looked better moving the ball into our F50 (imo), but often found it difficult to go head-to-head with the better midfield units and therefore often gave up as many goals as we generated; i.e. too many easy centre clearances and too many unharried F50 entries by opposition midfields due to our own midfield not having the experience/talent/fitness/depth that we once had.

I think a more settled midfield unit would help in addressing a lot of these problems, unfortunately I'm not sure we'll see that in 2015.

I think an excellent summary.

You need to play a style that suits the players you have. And our best and productive style as seen between 2007 and 2011 - was when we had most bases covered. Seriously good backline and midfield and a decent forward line. No real weak players in the best 22 either.

Now with so many changes to the team - we have still a decent, but old backline and we are building a very decent forward line (2 players off it presently - CGF and a small forward - and I think we will get two players that will fill those roles better than we did last season) BUT we have a relatively weak midfield when we come up against the strong teams.

We tried to address that with an already seasoned professional in Boak - but we failed in our bid. Now we await Caddy to grow into a decent and consistent mid for us. But that will not be enough. We need Guthrie and GHS to grow accordingly as well - and SJ and Selwood to play at a very high standard - and then we may be getting closer to some other midfields.

But it has to run deeper than that - so Lang, Hartman and/or JJ - need to start to stand up soon. SJ will retire and then it will highlight our lack of gun mids and our overall depth in the midfield. So we have to work extremely hard in getting these potential mids into shape and do ok at AFL level - then get a FA mid that helps straight away.

I have been backing the idea that a better midfield (SJ, Selwood, Dangerfield, Caddy, GHS and Guthrie plus a few other part timers) would be good enough to break even with the best midfields (assuming we have a decent ruck combo as well).

The with an improved forward line (having a decent CHF and new small mid), an old but still effective backline (and the more effective the midfield is the less the backline has to defend) and a very solid midfield/ ruck set up could get us a flag in 2016 or 2017.

 

[Cursed Cat]

I have been backing the idea that a better midfield (SJ, Selwood, Dangerfield, Caddy, GHS and Guthrie plus a few other part timers) would be good enough to break even with the best midfields (assuming we have a decent ruck combo as well).

The with an improved forward line (having a decent CHF and new small mid), an old but still effective backline (and the more effective the midfield is the less the backline has to defend) and a very solid midfield/ ruck set up could get us a flag in 2016 or 2017.

sounds good to me!

getting Dangerfield would change plenty.
I've stayed out of the Dangerfield thread as there's a loooong season ahead and that speculation will be played out - but even just a quartet of Selwood/Dangerfield/Caddy/Guthrie is a scary prospect - throw some quick legs around them and we'd be right amongst it again; Dangerfield is one of those rare individuals who can have a profound impact on a team.

No Dangerfield, and we revert back to your original point; Lang, Hartman and/or Jansen will need to be developed asap - saying that, it's likely that it will take all three at least 3 full seasons to really start making a consistent impact. I'm holding out hope that Lang will come on nicely, it would be good to see him get some opportunities this year; I can see him playing in a forward line role, or even up on the wing in bursts. Hartman I would love to see up forward as much as I would in the midfield, he'll get more games this year and once he's comfortable at AFL level I think he'll be a really interesting player.

 

[David the Cat]

home and away wins yay

we were a long way from a flag as shown with another embarrassing finals series

Home and away wins yay? Really? OK…lets do away with those useless H&A wins and take em apart in the finals…….

Honestly, how inane can you get? Despite what you say, we ARE a good side…the H&A season proved that,….we just weren't good enough when the heat was on.

And was that really a surprise? Did you expect a flag in 2014? I certainly didn't, and I would suggest most saw us in the 3-5 range before the finals began and thats where we ended up.

2015? My hope is finals, with a win or two….but I would be over the moon, and frankly quite surprised, if we won the flag.

I'm happy to be surprised though.

 

[Pollywaffle]

This year I think we will see a more 'Hawthorn' style game plan, with lots of rotations - especially forward. How this will work is still up in the air. Some surprise 'goal kickers' but a more even spread , and less 'Hawkins centric' forward setups.
If he is as fit as they say, we may see him up the ground more often this season with Vardy or Clark (Walker?) as a foil in the goals
Johnson may play a bigger role up forward again.
We have quite a few players who like to kick goals now, and that's not a bad thing.
Stokes, Motlop, Horlin-smith, Bartel, Selwood, Caddy - all like the sticks and Murdoch, if he gets his act together, could do something.
And there is always the ghost of Menzel who may attend the banquet.....

 

[Pollywaffle]

* I hope not!


This is where you hope our coaching staff have their own ideas and philosophies.

I Don't mean copy it play by play, but I'm sure we will see a lot more positional rotation and harder running 'rangier' players when the season starts. Lets call it a 'meta' game style. Those who ignore this trend will be left behind. (Hopefully the game clogging style of Lyon et al will be one casualty)
I'm sure our guys will be tweaking things as they go..

 

[Teriyakicat]

I Don't mean copy it play by play, but I'm sure we will see a lot more positional rotation and harder running 'rangier' players when the season starts. Lets call it a 'meta' game style. Those who ignore this trend will be left behind. (Hopefully the game clogging style of Lyon et al will be one casualty)
I'm sure our guys will be tweaking things as they go..

I was reading yesterday that Cloke has dropped a few kgs and have also heard it said about several other club's players. Sounds like the running game is back on the rise again and those who don't adapt- or won't adapt- will be left behind.

(am definitely with you in hoping that the Lyon/Roos style of game will be choked out of the league)

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

The cats only need one goal... Be in front at the final siren of every game possible. I don't know why we complicate this game so much.

 

[Teriyakicat]

The cats only need one goal... Be in front at the final siren of every game possible. I don't know why we complicate this game so much.

We're just trying to figure out how to make that happen, BNF- it appears that the club lost its way a little bit over the past couple of years and we are hoping they'll take notice of all the various strategies listed here on BF

 

[sauron256]

We're just trying to figure out how to make that happen, BNF- it appears that the club lost its way a little bit over the past couple of years and we are hoping they'll take notice of all the various strategies listed here on BF

No one knows our players and the current state of the game better than we do!

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

we are hoping they'll take notice of all the various strategies listed here on BF

Good luck with that.

Interesting statement on the AFL site today -

Another area of concern for the Cats comes at the coalface. Yes, they have the magnificent Joel Selwood, but they still ranked last in the AFL last year for clearances and stoppages. There was a time when Selwood would win games for Geelong, but as his supporting cast diminishes over time he is merely keeping them in games for longer.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-01-30/will-geelong-fall-in-2015

 

[Teriyakicat]

I loved one of Ben Guthrie's comments:
It would be easy to argue that Joel Selwood, Tom Hawkins and Harry Taylor rank inside the top 10 best players in the competition, while Stevie J may actually win a Brownlow one day. If only, like we are taught at primary school, he would keep his hands to himself.
poor Stevie J. He will probably retire, wondering about what might have been, if only he was a bit more disciplined. Love him or hate him, nobody will deny that he is one of the game's most innovative and exciting players to watch (as well as one of the most frustrating!).
If he can channel his energies in the right manner and if his foot holds up, it would be like having another 2 A-Grade players on the field every week! Pity we can't clone him

 

[Scottland2007]

Enright's done it a bit. Josh Hunt, Milburn...
Nobody seems to want to kick them on the run from 50 these days- maybe Mackie, still, and Duncan...

Enrights done it lately, but I can't remember during those years. I think Milburn was a swingman when the sub rule came in? Hunt, Lord yes, massive kick on him. Just between you and me, fav goal from a non forward, J.C's super goal pre season grand final 2006! Chapman picked him up for a hug and I swore if I went Freddie Mercury, I would marry JC.