Analysis Team Goals for 2015

[Turbocat]

We will end up losing one of walker, kersten and I'd prefer them both over stanley & clark

Team Goals for 2015?

 

[Stan The Caddy]

Walker played as a permanent forward would give you better than 30.

I know that you're his biggest fan YPO and if he could give us 30+ goals then that would help the team to no end. There will be stiff competition for spots though so it will be interesting to see who gets first crack at it!

 

[Partridge]

Vardy has also played more good 1sts football than Walker or Kersten.

Not so sure about that. To my reckoning Vardy has played exactly two high quality games - both in 2013 - when he kicked 4 against Gold Coast, and then rucked against St.Kilda. It's all been cameos outside of that. There's no big gulf between him and Walker or Kersten. Far from it.

 

[Partridge]

Walker played as a permanent forward would give you better than 30.

Maybe. I'll go with probably not.

For one thing, he'd need to be guaranteed at least 20 games to get close to 30 goals. Little evidence so far that he's going to be preferred to Clark. Or Vardy once he regains fitness. Or if it's a third tall, even Kersten.

 

[you pick one]

Maybe. I'll go with probably not.

For one thing, he'd need to be guaranteed at least 20 games to get close to 30 goals. Little evidence so far that he's going to be preferred to Clark. Or Vardy once he regains fitness. Or if it's a third tall, even Kersten.

Either of the three Clark,Vardy or Walker will give you that 30 goals as a forward given 20 games,doesn't the availability and form of Simpson and McIntosh hold the key here though.

 

[Teriyakicat]

Team Goals for 2015?

Hopefully those blokes will all be kicking a fair few each

 

[Teriyakicat]

Maybe. I'll go with probably not.

For one thing, he'd need to be guaranteed at least 20 games to get close to 30 goals. Little evidence so far that he's going to be preferred to Clark. Or Vardy once he regains fitness. Or if it's a third tall, even Kersten.

I assumed that you pick one meant that Walker would be playing every game- or close to it- to kick those 30 goals. it'd be silly to even mention it otherwise and ypo sure ain't silly.

Vardy has to regain fitness first for this to become any sort of discussion. Then he has to prove form- and first year back from a serious leg injury is always difficult. Walker is one of the fittest individuals at the club, he gives 100% every time he plays and I hope that he gets a real shot at a spot in our forward line. I'd absolutely hate to lose him a la Mark Blake (though totally different types of players), then watch him play well elsewhere- even if as an above average bit player - while we find that we are short one player of his type when others break down again....

 

[Jon Douglas]

Yeah I do not think, even with all these new talls coming in from outside or back from injury will see Walker delisted. I think he has another 2 seasons at the club. He started as a Rookie and then was called into the team because of injuries to KPFs. Yes he is raw - but he has the right attitude and fair physique.

He may yet even find a place down back as a KD - but given he seems durable and willing - and he showed a bit in his biggest game so far - he deserves to be on the list for sure. Sure he is no front runner to make it in the AFL but he has done enough to keep his position for 2 seasons and see what happens from there. He deserves a bit more time IMO.

I will go out on a limb and say he will play more senior games than Brown - and will probably be a bit handier than him at CHF. There are two guys you wish you could join up into one player. The size and attitude of Walker and the marking and kicking skills of Brown (though Walker when he gets confidence is a pretty decent mark).

 

[you pick one]

I assumed that you pick one meant that Walker would be playing every game- or close to it- to kick those 30 goals. it'd be silly to even mention it otherwise and ypo sure ain't silly.

Vardy has to regain fitness first for this to become any sort of discussion. Then he has to prove form- and first year back from a serious leg injury is always difficult. Walker is one of the fittest individuals at the club, he gives 100% every time he plays and I hope that he gets a real shot at a spot in our forward line. I'd absolutely hate to lose him a la Mark Blake (though totally different types of players), then watch him play well elsewhere- even if as an above average bit player - while we find that we are short one player of his type when others break down again....

Agree with all of that,the bolded might be gilding the Lilly a bit.Is that what the wink means?

 

[Teriyakicat]

Agree with all of that,the bolded might be gilding the Lilly a bit.Is that what the wink means?

There are levels of silliness, ypo ... you're meant to think I'm being nice, Partridge is meant to think that I think you're silly...

 

[Teriyakicat]

Yeah I do not think, even with all these new talls coming in from outside or back from injury will see Walker delisted. I think he has another 2 seasons at the club. He started as a Rookie and then was called into the team because of injuries to KPFs. Yes he is raw - but he has the right attitude and fair physique.

He may yet even find a place down back as a KD - but given he seems durable and willing - and he showed a bit in his biggest game so far - he deserves to be on the list for sure. Sure he is no front runner to make it in the AFL but he has done enough to keep his position for 2 seasons and see what happens from there. He deserves a bit more time IMO.

I will go out on a limb and say he will play more senior games than Brown - and will probably be a bit handier than him at CHF. There are two guys you wish you could join up into one player. The size and attitude of Walker and the marking and kicking skills of Brown (though Walker when he gets confidence is a pretty decent mark).

I see Walker as the Pods crash and bash type. Maybe even the Hawkins- type strong man. Not sure how he goes as a lead-up mark but he sure can run and crash a pack, can't he? We need him to knock over a few oppo players so they all fear him, then that will leave him free to work some magic in the forward line. Yes, he'd never be dropped from the team if he had Brown's skills and his own body, fitness and determination.

He definitely appears to be a confidence player- as most players are- and the worst thing that happened to him was to be thrown into the Freo final at the end of 2013 though, having said that, perhaps he may not have been the player he was in last year's finals if he hadn't ever played a finals game before. He played the 2013 QF, then the 2013 VFL GF (in which he performed very well, from memory- I think he kicked about 4 goals in the first half, as a 2 year old). Now he's played in both 2014 finals, that means he's been a part of 4 losing finals. Surely that would get his blood boiling and he'd have a taste for revenge when he plays his next final.

 

[Turbocat]

Yeah I do not think, even with all these new talls coming in from outside or back from injury will see Walker delisted. I think he has another 2 seasons at the club. He started as a Rookie and then was called into the team because of injuries to KPFs. Yes he is raw - but he has the right attitude and fair physique.

He may yet even find a place down back as a KD - but given he seems durable and willing - and he showed a bit in his biggest game so far - he deserves to be on the list for sure. Sure he is no front runner to make it in the AFL but he has done enough to keep his position for 2 seasons and see what happens from there. He deserves a bit more time IMO.

I will go out on a limb and say he will play more senior games than Brown - and will probably be a bit handier than him at CHF. There are two guys you wish you could join up into one player. The size and attitude of Walker and the marking and kicking skills of Brown (though Walker when he gets confidence is a pretty decent mark).

Walker has played 17 so he is 2 ahead already

 

[Teriyakicat]

Walker has played 17 so he is 2 ahead already

well, that was a short-lived wait to see if Jon Douglas ' prediction would come true, wasn't it?

 

[dazbroncos]

well, that was a short-lived wait to see if Jon Douglas ' prediction would come true, wasn't it?

guarantees you are never wrong..

Go Catters

 

[Jon Douglas]

Walker has played 17 so he is 2 ahead already

Did not know where to look up Brown's stats from to check. Thanks for the info T.

Hey but see it has already happened - I told you Walker would play more games than Brown. No sooner written than done !

 

[Partridge]

guarantees you are never wrong..

Go Catters

Those kind of predictions are always popular.

 

[FredLeDeux]

Those kind of predictions are always popular.

We see lists of them every year in November from the "astrologists".
Of course, they are usually a lot shorter than the ones they gave us back in January.

 

[Teriyakicat]

Did not know where to look up Brown's stats from to check. Thanks for the info T.

Hey but see it has already happened - I told you Walker would play more games than Brown. No sooner written than done !

Here's one site you can check stats on, JD:

http://afltables.com/afl/stats/alltime/geelong.html

Or, during the season, footywire will have current player stats. If you can't remember this info, just type the player's name into your browser plus the word 'stats' and a few links will come up. AFL tables is my favourite.

 

[The rabbi]

Maybe. I'll go with probably not.

For one thing, he'd need to be guaranteed at least 20 games to get close to 30 goals. Little evidence so far that he's going to be preferred to Clark. Or Vardy once he regains fitness. Or if it's a third tall, even Kersten.

How do you think Walker would go if he was tried as a KPD? (I would never let him kick out).

He is big, strong, athletic and has the fitness to run out games.
My concerns would be his kicking and defensive smarts.
But I would still like to see him tried there if he could not get a guernsey in the forward line.
My concern is that Walks could end up being wasted in the VFL and could walk due to lack of opportunities.

 

[Partridge]

How do you think Walker would go if he was tried as a KPD? (I would never let him kick out).

He is big, strong, athletic and has the fitness to run out games.
My concerns would be his kicking and defensive smarts.
But I would still like to see him tried there if he could not get a guernsey in the forward line.
My concern is that Walks could end up being wasted in the VFL and could walk due to lack of opportunities.

He doesn't strike me as a defender at all to be honest. Agree completely on the defensive smarts, you need to be able to really read the game in the backline and right now I don't see that. I think the notion of him as a defender is just people letting emotion cloud judgement. They like him, therefore he must have a spot in the team. Maybe right now he doesn't. He's rarely played there even at VFL level, and just like everyone else, in order to play there at senior level, someone out of Lonergan, Taylor or Rivers misses out. Which is pretty unlikely.

For me, if he is to grab CHF he has to really take that position when and if he gets a chance there. I don't see any other spot for him.

 

[Teriyakicat]

How do you think Walker would go if he was tried as a KPD? (I would never let him kick out).

He is big, strong, athletic and has the fitness to run out games.
My concerns would be his kicking and defensive smarts.
But I would still like to see him tried there if he could not get a guernsey in the forward line.
My concern is that Walks could end up being wasted in the VFL and could walk due to lack of opportunities.

So many positive attributes - hopefully with more game time (and I'm hoping CHF), these will outweigh any negative attributes. No player is without flaws - it's just a matter of whether the team can manage to help him overcome them. (Eg like Tom Hawkins is fairly slow and immovable- so we need a small tackling crumber near him to help him out.)

I agree that he would be wasted in the VFL- it appears that we've gone from not having enough options to having too many. Unless the GFC know something that we don't- regarding the health and/or fitness of Vardy and Clark, for instance.

 

[Jon Douglas]

Here's one site you can check stats on, JD:

http://afltables.com/afl/stats/alltime/geelong.html

Or, during the season, footywire will have current player stats. If you can't remember this info, just type the player's name into your browser plus the word 'stats' and a few links will come up. AFL tables is my favourite.

Here's one site you can check stats on, JD:


Thanks.

 

[Scottland2007]

I've been playing around with the idea of making up a table of our goal kicking from the past few years (2007-2014), with the view of finding out what has changed over this period- whether we are kicking as many goals, whether we're as accurate, who's doing the scoring (is it big forwards, crumbers, ruckmen, midfielders?), etc. etc.

With these questions in mind, I've made up a table of our major goal kickers for the past 8 seasons, including the top 8 goal kickers in some calculations.

View attachment 105001

One thing that is niggling at me but I have yet to work on it, is the fact that I recall that we used to have a lot of goal kickers in each game a few years ago but this doesn't seem to happen anymore- I think we've become so Hawkins-focussed that the other forwards haven't been leading up and presenting in and around the 50 as they used to and the goal assists from teammates, with their shorter passes closer to goal, have also diminished.

There are a lot of factors that influence our goal kicking - ranging from how good our ruckmen and midfielders are, how many goals the opposition are kicking against us (we can't be kicking goals if the ball's constantly down the other end of the ground, obviously), how accurate our goal kickers are- which depends on the type of shot they're taking, etc.

The goals dried up in 2012 and 2014 in particular- we kicked about 3-4 goals less per game than we had kicked in previous years. In 2011, Mooney disappeared from the front line, kicking only 9 goals for the year, while Podsiadly became the main goal kicker. In 2012, Hawkins continued his good form from the 2011 GF and became the prime focus of his teammates, with Pods as the second big forward. In 2013, Hawkins played restricted for most of the season but still topped the goal kicking list and, in 2013 and 2014, we had a cobbled-together ruck division.

Where will the goals come from in 2015? What areas can we improve on, to increase our output?

We're doing OK at getting the ball inside 50- we've been champions at doing this well over the past 8 years, being either the best or 2nd best team getting the ball inside 50 for 6 of these 8 years. Last year, we dropped to 6th. That needs to improve this season.

How do we compare with other teams at converting our shots on goal into 6 points? Our accuracy has been reasonable over the past 8 years apart from 2009 and 2012, when we were 9th most accurate, and 2014 when we were the 15th most accurate team - or perhaps I should say we were the 4th least accurate team.

View attachment 105004

If we intend to keep wasting our shots on goal, then we need to increase our I50s so we can have more kicks in the direction of the big posts. If that's too difficult due to lack of manpower in the rucks, midfield, etc.- then we will just have to learn to be a lot cleverer and more economical with setting up our goal kickers so they aren't just peppering the goals and stop wasting the opportunities that their teammates have given them. Hawthorn improved their goal accuracy by 3% last season- there's no reason that we can't improve ours by that amount.
We need to be more accurate with our entries and our targets need to be in better position to receive, so that means the ball has to come in faster, before the opposition defence has time to set up 2 on 1 on a goal kicker- and we need to put a clever player or two (like Stokes, Bartel or Johnson) in the area, so they can get to the fall of the ball or direct a young fast teammate to be in the right place. Motlop would be handy here, too, with his speed. I'm sure there will be 20 players capable of rotating through here.

One thing I have noticed, between 07 and 11 we had a lot of defenders running forward and kicking goals. Mackie and Wojo would do it regularly as well as our midfielders in Bartel and Ablett kicking them from 50. (trying to think of what other defenders used to run forward and kick goals? Scarlo used to do it, but I think he did it more 04 - 06)

 

[Teriyakicat]

One thing I have noticed, between 07 and 11 we had a lot of defenders running forward and kicking goals. Mackie and Wojo would do it regularly as well as our midfielders in Bartel and Ablett kicking them from 50. (trying to think of what other defenders used to run forward and kick goals? Scarlo used to do it, but I think he did it more 04 - 06)

Enright's done it a bit. Josh Hunt, Milburn...
Nobody seems to want to kick them on the run from 50 these days- maybe Mackie, still, and Duncan...

 

[abet]

We will end up losing one of walker, kersten and I'd prefer them both over stanley & clark

Like you a lot of others on this forum seem to underestimate Clark. By the stats below his not to far behind Hawkins and he had to achieve these stats at two struggling clubs.

Player Statistics Comparison

Tom Hawkins Name Mitchell Clark
Geelong Cats Team Geelong Cats
Forward Position Forward
147 Career Games 97
Melbourne Grammar Origin East Fremantle
July 21, 1988 Date of Birth October 19, 1987
Turned 25 in 2013 Age Turned 26 in 2013
197cm Height 200cm
105kg Weight 103kg
2006 National Draft Last Drafted In 2005 National Draft
Round 3, Pick #41 Last Draft Position Round 1, Pick #9
Geelong Cats Last Drafted By Brisbane Lions

Career Averages
147 Games 97
7.2 Kicks Per Game 8.0
4.5 Handballs Per Game 5.2
11.7 Disposals Per Game 13.3
5.5 Marks Per Game 4.9
1.9 Goals Per Game 1.0
1.1 Behinds Per Game 0.7
1.7 Tackles Per Game 2.5
1.6 Hitouts Per Game 9.7
1.0 Frees For Per Game 0.8
0.9 Frees Against Per Game 1.5
0 Rebound 50s Per Game 1.0
0.8 One Percenters Per Game 1.5
0 Bounces Per Game 1.2
88.0 Time On Ground % Per Game 77.8