Preview Hawthorn season preview - Me? I Like Football

[Procrastinator35]

Seriously?

The guy and the website have gone to a lot of trouble and work to put together 18 very detailed reviews and I quite enjoyed reading ours. We kick up a stink because we are named 3rd and only just missing the top 2 by their thoughts and opinions.

What is with some people getting so offended when others don't have us top or premiers in their predictions? People differ and have opinions, doesn't mean their thoughts are flimsy and shallow. I can't believe how rude some people are on this site at times.

Yep....I stipulated the context with regards the 2 points mentioned & prefaced my conclusion on them....Other than that, it is you who have jumped to the over-generalizations I would have thought!...

If you come onto the Big Footy board offering another site's insights & Assumptions then you should expect them to be debated over & judged upon their merit surely?

We weren't the dominant team last season; we were the dominant team on the most important day. And that's great!

Argy mentioned odds - that's important to remember. The odds of going back-to-back are so long, so what do you think the odds of going back-to-back-to-back are?

Do we have the talent to do it? Yup. Can we do it? Of course. Should it be the expectation? I'm not so sure.

We were probably toast if we lost that game against the Crows last year. Port had us on the ropes and had the opportunity to knock us out at the end of the prelim. We had a very unlucky year with injuries, but we were absolutely cherry ripe (bar Rioli, who still made the big dance) for finals.

Some of that is management and some of it is luck. Stuey Fox and Chris Fagan are the first to admit that. You do what you can and then let it ride - that's footy over a seven-month stretch.

We're as well placed for a premiership run as we've ever been, but if you think it's a fait accompli then you're delusional. And odds are you're going to be wrong.

Mate....I still don't think you are seeing the big picture on this one!

Last year we were cruelled by injuries to most of our big players...All of Mitch, Gibbo, Cyril & Lake....And yet, we still over-came them to win the Grand Final in a cake-walk....The season prior, when we went without those injuries, we dominated!

Also...3 of the games we lost last year (Sydney, Port & Norf) occurred during the height of said absences....And we still only just lost 2 of em!

These points alone, Which - when combined with the outrageously over-handicapped draw gifted to the Swans in 2014 - ought to have made it plainly clear that the HAWKS by any thinking & knowledgeable football person, are a clear & Distinct favorite for the 2015 Flag!...The betting markets alone acknowledge that....Not that I give a flying Fig what they think anyways!

We have lost no one from the 2014 Side & have also added Frawley. Anderson, WhiteX & O'Rourke....The Swans have lost their number one GUN defender & general in Malceski & added young Heeney only.....I'm sorry mate, but when you take all these factors into consideration then there is no way anyone could come up with the conclusions that your site has arrived at.

Credibility is the point here.

 

[Happy_Hawker]

We weren't the dominant team last season; we were the dominant team on the most important day. And that's great!

Argy mentioned odds - that's important to remember. The odds of going back-to-back are so long, so what do you think the odds of going back-to-back-to-back are?

Do we have the talent to do it? Yup. Can we do it? Of course. Should it be the expectation? I'm not so sure.

We were probably toast if we lost that game against the Crows last year. Port had us on the ropes and had the opportunity to knock us out at the end of the prelim. We had a very unlucky year with injuries, but we were absolutely cherry ripe (bar Rioli, who still made the big dance) for finals.

Some of that is management and some of it is luck. Stuey Fox and Chris Fagan are the first to admit that. You do what you can and then let it ride - that's footy over a seven-month stretch.

We're as well placed for a premiership run as we've ever been, but if you think it's a fait accompli then you're delusional. And odds are you're going to be wrong.

That's a gambler's fallacy. We don't have to win three premierships in a row, we just have to win one. The long odds on 3 in a row only apply if you haven't got one. But we already have two. So we just need one more.

It's like saying "I've flipped heads twice therefore the chance of a third heads is low, because 3 heads in a row is so unlikely"

This is a fallacy, because because the third flip of the coin is independent of the first two. The odds of heads on the third flip are still Fifty-Fifty. So even though the odds of three heads in a row is one in eight prior to those three flips occurring, the odds of heads on the third flip itself is still 50/50 no matter what the prior two flips were (even if they were both heads).

 

[Flukey!]

You guys are effectively arguing over who can better foresee the future.
It looks like The Hitman and his colleagues have gone to a lot of work with their site and their analysis.
He deserves credit for that.

Just because his opinion may be different to another posters, it doesn't make him wrong.
We won't know that for 6 months.

 

[Dipper]

We're as well placed for a premiership run as we've ever been, but if you think it's a fait accompli then you're delusional. And odds are you're going to be wrong.

Hello mate!

I haven't seen you for about 8 or 9 years, you must be all grown up now days .;-)

 

[Brant]

For the record, I'm a Hawthorn member.

There's a reason why Sydney was heavy favourite going into the grand final, and I'd defy and Hawk to say they expected what unfolded on September 27 to pan out that way. Win , maybe. But that kind of dominance and perfection? Nah.

Not here to defend Sydney - I dislike them as much as anyone. But they're a very, very good team. They have the best forward in the league, an excellent two-way midfield and the depth to ensure they get back into the top four and maybe another grand final.

Sounds similar to us, really. We have a better defence, but if they figure out what we did in 2013 - that the best use of Franklin isn't reliance but as part of a broader unit - they will be difficult to beat.

By the way, remember the prediction of third is after the H&A season. Last season's third-placed team had the same number of wins as the first and second - it means diddly squat in terms of premiership hopes.

Hitman, I couldn't disagree more.

They have 1 forward - their 2nd forward is a genuine spud & they don't have any other options - I don't mean that their options fall away after that, I mean that they literally don't have any. Schoey dominates Sam Reid - it'd be illegal what Lake or Frawley would do to him. If anything happened to Buddy, or if he were played anywhere other than 30m from goal, they'd score less than 12 goals a game.

I can't see how that sounds similar to us at all.

For those getting precious about Hitman's prediction of our finishing position or that of any other team - I haven't read the predictions & have no issue with what they are (predictions, by nature, are kinda irrelevant) - more the means for comparison listed in the quote.

 

[Cynic]

Third wouldn't surprise me.

We are now a team fully aware what it takes to win premierships and the answer to that is top 4 with a healthy list. If we need to drop a few games to keep our list healthy that is what we'll do.

 

[Jiggystoon]

Because the masses got it wrong as to who was the best team.

GF at MCG, our recent clash(es) with Swans, our equal ladder placing despite our draw and our turmoils and finally the narrowness of our interstate losses against our main competition were at our most vulnerable points in the season injury and suspension wise.

Anyone who didn't think we were the favourites going in to the GF had been sucked in by the hype.

This!

Heading into the game last year I could find no logical reason why the Swans should have been any better regarded as the favs then us, your points above pretty much illustrate my exact thinking last year, they were massively overhyped by the d*ckheads in the media, mainly due to the Buddy factor as much as anything because if they looked at the full picture and with an objective eye, they would have seen things much differently, I would have never of expected to win like we did but I fully expected us to win

 

[Procrastinator35]

It just amazes me how the media & other so-called footy pundits continue to underestimate us....Hell, if we won 10 in a row, they'd still not pick us for the following season with all things considered.

No one is arguing about the future, which no one can know, but rather the rating of teams based upon past form up until now.

Any clear thinking football person, with all the known facts before them, would have the Hawks first & daylight second....That is the point here surely!....It's just like the Grand Final all over again, except these pundits are acting like it never happened at all!

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Third wouldn't surprise me.

We are now a team fully aware what it takes to win premierships and the answer to that is top 4 with a healthy list. If we need to drop a few games to keep our list healthy that is what we'll do.

Top 2 is pivotal with all the the obvious threats coming from outside Victoria.

 

[fabulon31]

That's a gambler's fallacy. We don't have to win three premierships in a row, we just have to win one. The long odds on 3 in a row only apply if you haven't got one. But we already have two. So we just need one more.

It's like saying "I've flipped heads twice therefore the chance of a third heads is low, because 3 heads in a row is so unlikely"

This is a fallacy, because because the third flip of the coin is independent of the first two. The odds of heads on the third flip are still Fifty-Fifty. So even though the odds of three heads in a row is one in eight prior to those three flips occurring, the odds of heads on the third flip itself is still 50/50 no matter what the prior two flips were (even if they were both heads).

I had this argument with a doctor of mathematics once and he went the other way. His argument was that if the coin came up heads too many times then it must be rigged because over time you must get heads 50 percent of the time and tails the other 50 percent. So, even though all the spins are indipendent, if you ever see a coin flipping heads four times and you know it's not rigged, start betting on tails.
Sorry, it's a bit off topic but it's an interesting argument and the odds of the Hawks wining three in a row is not great.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

I had this argument with a doctor of mathematics once and he went the other way. His argument was that if the coin came up heads too many times then it must be rigged because over time you must get heads 50 percent of the time and tails the other 50 percent. So, even though all the spins are indipendent, if you ever see a coin flipping heads four times and you know it's not rigged, start betting on tails.
Sorry, it's a bit off topic but it's an interesting argument and the odds of the Hawks wining three in a row is not great.

The odds are $3.75 which equates to about a 27 % chance.

 

[becalm]

It just amazes me how the media & other so-called footy pundits continue to underestimate us....Hell, if we won 10 in a row, they'd still not pick us for the following season with all things considered.

No one is arguing about the future, which no one can know, but rather the rating of teams based upon past form up until now.

Any clear thinking football person, with all the known facts before them, would have the Hawks first & daylight second....That is the point here surely!....It's just like the Grand Final all over again, except these pundits are acting like it never happened at all!

I would prefer us to be under-rated, won us the last two GF.

 

[Brant]

I had this argument with a doctor of mathematics once and he went the other way. His argument was that if the coin came up heads too many times then it must be rigged because over time you must get heads 50 percent of the time and tails the other 50 percent. So, even though all the spins are indipendent, if you ever see a coin flipping heads four times and you know it's not rigged, start betting on tails.
Sorry, it's a bit off topic but it's an interesting argument and the odds of the Hawks wining three in a row is not great.

Haha
Did you just read what the Happy One wrote? We're not embarking on a quest to win 3 - we're on a quest to win 1, being that we already have 2.

Further, this is not an evenly weighted, 50/50 proposition - we have the best team & the most relevant experience. It's akin to having one side of the coin heavenly weighted in our favour.

We need to win 1 - not 3; &, we have a coin weighted in our favour: if we don't have great odds then those of the our opponents are downright sh*t, to the point where they're better off folding & finding another game.

 

[Rioli magic]

It just amazes me how the media & other so-called footy pundits continue to underestimate us....Hell, if we won 10 in a row, they'd still not pick us for the following season with all things considered.

No one is arguing about the future, which no one can know, but rather the rating of teams based upon past form up until now.

Any clear thinking football person, with all the known facts before them, would have the Hawks first & daylight second....That is the point here surely!....It's just like the Grand Final all over again, except these pundits are acting like it never happened at all!

But they are talking about the future and are not rating teams on past form...

 

[cryptor]

I had this argument with a doctor of mathematics once and he went the other way. His argument was that if the coin came up heads too many times then it must be rigged because over time you must get heads 50 percent of the time and tails the other 50 percent. So, even though all the spins are indipendent, if you ever see a coin flipping heads four times and you know it's not rigged, start betting on tails.
Sorry, it's a bit off topic but it's an interesting argument and the odds of the Hawks wining three in a row is not great.

2-3 times in a row isn't unusual though. It's actually incredibly unlikely that you wouldn't have a series of flips that were all the same at some points.

We've now got a list/team that are quite experienced at winning finals and being there in the Grand Final. I reckon that lends us a huge advantage early on in any finals game where the opposition may not be experienced on how to deal with the occasion. Players always say that it's like nothing else you experience in the home and away.

 

[Brant]

2-3 times in a row isn't unusual though. It's actually incredibly unlikely that you wouldn't have a series of flips that were all the same at some points.

We've now got a list/team that are quite experienced at winning finals and being there in the Grand Final. I reckon that lends us a huge advantage early on in any finals game where the opposition may not be experienced on how to deal with the occasion. Players always say that it's like nothing else you experience in the home and away.

Exactly mate.

I'd put $10 at $1.37/1 that only 3/4 people know there's only a 30% chance that it's a 50/50 proposition. I just hope the football public doesn't get carried away with stats...

 

[The Hitman]

Are we seriously equating winning an AFL premiership to flipping a coin?

Because I'm not the one who did, and I think that's a ridiculous comparison.

If you don't think Hawthorn has had an element of luck to make either of the last two grand finals (we haven't had luck in them, granted), then you have selective memory.

That doesn't mean we were lucky to win either of them - we thoroughly deserved both - but I'm surprised at the bravado being shown by some of my fellow Hawks.

 

[Brant]

Are we seriously equating winning an AFL premiership to flipping a coin?

Because I'm not the one who did, and I think that's a ridiculous comparison.

If you don't think Hawthorn has had an element of luck to make either of the last two grand finals (we haven't had luck in them, granted), then you have selective memory.

That doesn't mean we were lucky to win either of them - we thoroughly deserved both - but I'm surprised at the bravado being shown by some of my fellow Hawks.

Mitchell - 9 weeks
Cyril - 13 weeks
Stratton - 5 weeks
Lake - 7 weeks
Whitecross - Season
Anderson - Season
Clarko - 5 weeks
Gibson - 9 weeks

Free-Kick Count in games that matter (like Last 1/4 of Prelim or any outing vs Geelong)...

Yeah, I'm pretty sure we weren't all that lucky in making the 2014 GF - I'm of the opinion that other clubs were extremely lucky that we didn't have Sydney or Port's run of 'injuries' in 2014.

If anyone was 'lucky', as you put it, it was Sydney in 2012 - that we mis-timed our run & played our GF 2 weeks too early - we could well be aiming at 4 in a row if luck were in any way a factor.

 

[Procrastinator35]

But they are talking about the future and are not rating teams on past form...

What other guide do we have for rating teams other than on recent form & squad lists?....Fantasy?....Wish fulfillment?....Hell, lets just ignore all the facts altogether.

I would prefer us to be under-rated, won us the last two GF.

Agree ( Especially by the media )...But that's not the point!

I but I'm surprised at the bravado being shown by some of my fellow Hawks.

Our Bravado is based upon reason & grounded in reality....We are Back to Back Premiers & fully deserving too....You could never call us arrogant!

Lets invert your premise & say that we were terribly unlucky to lose the 2011 Preliminary Final (No thanks to a certain umpire ignoring Gibbo being held for a good 20 seconds or more by Cloke)....and also, that if not for AFL intervention, that we would also be 2012 Premiers!!!....Lets go further & say that the umpiring in the 2013 Preliminary final in that 3rd quarter was a huge obstacle we needed to overcome & that the same could be said for the last quarter against Port in 2014 also!

Our record over the past 4 seasons has been exemplary with an 80% winning strike rate, that is more than worthy of 2 Premierships & likely ought to have encompassed another!....Fortunately, we have the chance to right that wrong this year....Get on Board & get around the boys mate!

 

[Davo23]

Are we seriously equating winning an AFL premiership to flipping a coin?

Because I'm not the one who did, and I think that's a ridiculous comparison.

If you don't think Hawthorn has had an element of luck to make either of the last two grand finals (we haven't had luck in them, granted), then you have selective memory.

That doesn't mean we were lucky to win either of them - we thoroughly deserved both - but I'm surprised at the bravado being shown by some of my fellow Hawks.

What's luck got to do with our recent success?
It's all about our players stepping up at the right time.

We were not lucky to win the 2013 Prelim, we won because of a brilliant performance by the team (and Burgoyne).
And in the 2014 Prelim, we weren't lucky, we played well enough to have a lead that Port couldnt match.

I don't get the "we had a little luck" stuff.

 

[Rioli magic]

What other guide do we have for rating teams other than on recent form & squad lists?....Fantasy?....Wish fulfillment?....Hell, lets just ignore all the facts altogether.

No one is ignoring these things - suggesting next season won't play out identical to the previous one isn't an outrageous call, in fact I think you will find history suggests it is the most likely outcome.

 

[tommyk72]

There's no way in hell i'm coming on this board after any losses this year. By the sounds of it the majority of people think we're going to win every game. It wouldn't surprise me to see us come anywhere from 1-4. Below that is when i'd be surprised.

If it was so clear cut that we were going to come in at number 1 then we'd be unbackable favourites and everyone on the main board would be saying the same thing. A look can/will happen throughout the football season. Those of you thinking we're guaranteed number 1 are delusional.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Hitman hits out!

 

[Procrastinator35]

There's no way in hell i'm coming on this board after any losses this year. By the sounds of it the majority of people think we're going to win every game. It wouldn't surprise me to see us come anywhere from 1-4. Below that is when i'd be surprised.

If it was so clear cut that we were going to come in at number 1 then we'd be unbackable favourites and everyone on the main board would be saying the same thing. A look can/will happen throughout the football season. Those of you thinking we're guaranteed number 1 are delusional.

You see, the thing is tommyk72....Top 4 won't cut it so far as Premierships are concerned for Hawthorn....It's basically Top 2 or bust!

Our history says that we must come either 1st or 2nd to win it.....Only once have we made the Grand final from 3rd - In 1985 - and we got hammered!

We all recognize that Hawks supporters prefer to be humble & down-play our chances....The underlying psychology being that the old Karma will kick our sorry asses as a consequence & that Blowing our own trumpets just aint our style....But our past 4 years suggests that we are a Top 2 side without hesitation nor equivocation.

Any pundit or site or guide which says otherwise, has zero footy cred so far as I'm concerned!

 

[MinerBoy]

There's no way in hell i'm coming on this board after any losses this year. By the sounds of it the majority of people think we're going to win every game. It wouldn't surprise me to see us come anywhere from 1-4. Below that is when i'd be surprised.

If it was so clear cut that we were going to come in at number 1 then we'd be unbackable favourites and everyone on the main board would be saying the same thing. A look can/will happen throughout the football season. Those of you thinking we're guaranteed number 1 are delusional.

All we have to base out opinions on is what has transpired and based on that I see no reason to not rate us as the most likely winner.

That doesn't mean we'll win. I have no expectation that we'll win. I just think, with 100% honesty, that until I see evidence to the contrary in the new season, that we are the most likely to.

I don't even think that's arrogant. I could be speaking about Geelong 2007 or Essendon 2000. Right now, until someone proves otherwise (and good luck to them if they do) - we are the best side. That's just an honest appraisal of the current situation.