Toast 11 games down and Port are second on the ladder…

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ibd77 said:
I'm still worried about Collingwood, Brisbane and Crows in a finals situation with their ability to blow games away in short bursts. So far we've been able to withstand Melbourne and Essendons challenges by raising our intensity when the game needs it.
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Yep. That's what has killed us in finals before and what I fear will kill us again.

We fight and fight to create a slender lead in spite of our inefficiency and then get blown away in a quarter or less of football.

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Ford Fairlane said:
And to see the development of Williams and Lord, with the glimpse of the all new composed Lachie Jones today.

Be nice to have a thread without the inevitable Hinkley nonsense. We get it, you don't like him don't want him here whatever but just enjoy what these kids especially are doing.
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You called Jones as a viable in and saw his steadiness in the last SANFL game.

Dusty is imposing but he looked like a player who could work Lachie off his game. Unsure why we moved Burton onto him unless we were tinkering?

I’d say 2024 Jonas goes and Lachie the enforcer will be a safe replacement.
 
More worrying than percentage is conversion rates. We are poor, less than 50% and our oppo has had the best conversion rate.

That's not because of excess arsey goals by our oppo, but when the oppo sometimes get the ball out of our forwardline after we have had multiple unsuccessful attempts at scoring, the oppo seem to easily transition the ball out of our forward lines and quickly get the ball up to their goal end, and they either run into the goals with not much pressure, have running shots from near the goal square or get marks pretty much straight out in front.


We have gone inside 50, 623 times which is the 3rd highest in the league, Melbourne 637 and Brisbane 630 are only ones higher. Worst is WCE 477.
and our oppo has gone in 558 times the 5th lowest - Bulldogs is 557, Brisbane 533, Geelong 530 and Collingwood the lowest at 521. Worst is WCE 644.


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Ford Fairlane said:
At first I was wondering if this was the third glass of red talking, but no this seems a sober post.

I really didn't see this coming, would have thought we would be around a 50/50 split by now.

Winning close games, winning after trailing in last quarters and look to be discovering new talents across the ground.

A lot to like to date.
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It’s impossible to see whatever is coming with Hinkley.

This is, I fear, 2014 all over again - 11 and 2 then miss the top four after telling the players, again, to look over their shoulders instead of at the ball because “you’re now the hunted not the hunter’. And that’s nine years ago and Hinkley is still here.

Except … he’s not here. He’s somewhere he’s never been until round 4 in his 11th year - down on the bench where the real coaches coach.

Except ... he’s not coaching. Someone else is. Hinkley is playing Dutch Uncle in plain sight, rehearsing for his next gig.

This is the same ‘senior coach’ who, when asked a few seasons ago pre-match why he never coaches from the bench, replied: “I leave that to Vossy and the boys.”

I think it was the game for which he recruited someone mid-season to ‘terrorise’ Lachie Neale and as a result of this distraction was seven goals down in the 1st quarter.

I have no effing idea what’s going on, and I have been alive long enough to know what’s going on, have seen enough to know what’s coming next … but with this blow-up rubber coaching doll slash ventriloquist’s dummy I have to admit I have no effing idea what’s coming next.

The players are to be vociferously complimented. They are playing finals football every game. Hinkley has conned them into doing it with some sort of “Save Me In My Last Contract Year” voodoo.

But … for godsake … I cannot believe what I’m seeing.

I dare not believe it.
 
I'm enjoying the outrageous quality of this midfield group. To think that early in '22 none of Butters, Rozee or JHF was a starting mid for us. One played for another club, one was being talked about as a possible draft pick bust and another there were concerns whether he'd ever fully recover from a serious injury. And now all 3 look like legit potential MVPs.

I've got concerns about our defence under pressure, that out best ruck is cooked and that Rioli is our only proper crumbling small forward.. but a midfield that good and that young is something you can really build around.
 
For mine, there's 1 big difference between 2023 and previous years. In recent years, the opposition has usually felt confident that Port was beatable, but this year we're never beaten until the final siren. We must be some sort of chance to be 12-2 at the bye, which would have been way beyond anyone's expectation at the start of the year.

Oh, and if Butters keeps playing like he has in recent weeks, he could win the Brownlow with a record number of votes.
 
RussellEbertHandball said:
More worrying than percentage is conversion rates. We are poor, less than 50% and our oppo has had the best conversion rate.

That's not because of excess arsey goals by our oppo, but when the oppo sometimes get the ball out of our forwardline after we have had multiple unsuccessful attempts at scoring, the oppo seem to easily transition the ball out of our forward lines and quickly get the ball up to their goal end, and they either run into the goals with not much pressure, have running shots from near the goal square or get marks pretty much straight out in front.


We have gone inside 50, 623 times which is the 3rd highest in the league, Melbourne 637 and Brisbane 630 are only ones higher. Worst is WCE 477.
and our oppo has gone in 558 times the 5th lowest - Bulldogs is 557, Brisbane 533, Geelong 530 and Collingwood the lowest at 521. Worst is WCE 644.


View attachment 1699327
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Id love to see this combined with expected score so see if it is our players that are s**t kicks or our game plan that gets us low percentage shots.

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The midfield group is starting to get some serious attention from interstate media. Butters, Rozee, JHF, Drew, Wines, Boak drawing plaudits and again the media talking mainly about the young guys.

And as Nathan noted in commentary, JHF has improved his defensive running and praised the work of the coaching group in developing this part of his game.

JHF building his match fitness after the off season surgery would have helped. His bounce back from that has been inspiring.

Lycett coming back with proper form and fitness has been a bonus. Although I think this group could be effective to a Tyrion Lannister led ruck.
 
The other guy who has impressed me the past couple of weeks is Farrell. He has played well as a defender and is providing an option as the release kick. He's not just swanning around for the handball receive.

Our delivery out of defence is a weapon with him, Williams, Houston, McKenzie and Burton when he goes back. We missed a few of those angle kicks from wide into the corridor but didn't go into our shell and kept hitting them. As John Cahill would tell players, he wouldn't drag you for doing the right thing and getting it wrong, just keep doing the right thing.
 
gbear said:
After being thrashed by Collingwood and embarrassed by those tricoloured tossers who would have thought Port would be sitting 2nd with 12 games left to play.

Unlike past seasons Port are now getting back into games and finding a way to win. Plus unlike past seasons Port are routinely beating other top eight teams. I am still sceptical whether Port will succeed under Hinkley, but I am giving credit where it is due.

Butters and Rozee are elite players which we didn’t need to bottom out and collect a wooden spoon to obtain.
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Well done for giving credit where it's due - I'm sick of being told our supporter group is a bunch of mouth breathers because even when we win we're still complaining. I don't think anyone is saying Kenny should get signed up tomorrow. I think we all want to wait until August BUT it certainly feels different this year in those close moments and the fact that we're winning without Todd Charlie Boak and Duurs is a big thing. The elephant in the room is we'd be in trouble without Alir but right now this moment we're looking good.
 

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RussellEbertHandball said:
More worrying than percentage is conversion rates. We are poor, less than 50% and our oppo has had the best conversion rate.

That's not because of excess arsey goals by our oppo, but when the oppo sometimes get the ball out of our forwardline after we have had multiple unsuccessful attempts at scoring, the oppo seem to easily transition the ball out of our forward lines and quickly get the ball up to their goal end, and they either run into the goals with not much pressure, have running shots from near the goal square or get marks pretty much straight out in front.
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This is just our high press at work. If teams get through it, they're usually 1 on 1 at worst kicking into an open forward line. We try our hardest to play the game in our forward half. It's partly why Jonas slowing down hurts so much, our KPDs are required to win 1 on 1s when our press breaks down against good teams, but he's doing it less and less.

Hinkley sides want to dominate the inside 50s and hope the rest sorts itself out.
 
Contested possessions (winning the contest) and ground ball gets (winning the uncontested ball in a neutral position) are two of the ways you can see which teams are strong and which aren't.

Collingwood, for example, has Jordan De Goey, Tom Mitchell, Darcy Cameron, Jack Crisp, Nick Daicos, Josh Daicos and Taylor Adams in the top 100 for contested possessions (7 players), and Jordan De Goey, Tom Mitchell, Nick Daicos, Josh Daicos, Jack Crisp and Steele Sidebottom in the top 100 for ground ball gets (6 players).

Brisbane has Lachie Neale, Josh Dunkley, Hugh McCluggage and Will Ashcroft in the top 100 for contested possessions (4 players), and Lachie Neale, Josh Dunkley, Will Ashcroft and Hugh McCluggage in the top 100 for ground ball gets (4 players).

Melbourne has Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca, Jack Viney, Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy in the top 100 for contested possessions (5 players), and Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca, Jack Viney and Angus Brayshaw in the top 100 for ground ball gets (4 players).

Geelong has Patrick Dangerfield, Mark Blicavs, Jonathan Ceglar, Tom Atkins, Max Holmes and Cameron Guthrie in the top 100 for contested possessions (6 players) and Patrick Dangerfield, Tom Atkins, Max Holmes, Mark Blicavs, Cameron Guthrie, Jack Bowes in the top 100 for ground ball gets (6 players).

In comparison Port Adelaide has Zak Butters, Ollie Wines, Jason Horne-Francis, Charlie Dixon, Willem Drew, Connor Rozee and Scott Lycett in the top 100 for contested possessions (7 players), and Zak Butters, Ollie Wines, Jason Horne-Francis, Willem Drew and Connor Rozee in the top 100 for ground ball gets (5 players).

In other words - not as proficient as Collingwood, better than Brisbane and Melbourne and probably equal with Geelong.
 
I think the Melbourne and Richmond wins were genuinely the sort of wins that we haven't seen before under Hinkley. We have a midfield that we haven't seen before under Hinkley with several players that can step up and win you a game. But our season starts in preliminary final week. Ken has had plenty of seasons where he's managed to rack up wins in the first half of the season. It could be different and I hope it is but it's hard to believe when we've been burned again and again.
 
Janus said:
Contested possessions (winning the contest) and ground ball gets (winning the uncontested ball in a neutral position) are two of the ways you can see which teams are strong and which aren't.

Collingwood, for example, has Jordan De Goey, Tom Mitchell, Darcy Cameron, Jack Crisp, Nick Daicos, Josh Daicos and Taylor Adams in the top 100 for contested possessions (7 players), and Jordan De Goey, Tom Mitchell, Nick Daicos, Josh Daicos, Jack Crisp and Steele Sidebottom in the top 100 for ground ball gets (6 players).

Brisbane has Lachie Neale, Josh Dunkley, Hugh McCluggage and Will Ashcroft in the top 100 for contested possessions (4 players), and Lachie Neale, Josh Dunkley, Will Ashcroft and Hugh McCluggage in the top 100 for ground ball gets (4 players).

Melbourne has Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca, Jack Viney, Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy in the top 100 for contested possessions (5 players), and Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca, Jack Viney and Angus Brayshaw in the top 100 for ground ball gets (4 players).

Geelong has Patrick Dangerfield, Mark Blicavs, Jonathan Ceglar, Tom Atkins, Max Holmes and Cameron Guthrie in the top 100 for contested possessions (6 players) and Patrick Dangerfield, Tom Atkins, Max Holmes, Mark Blicavs, Cameron Guthrie, Jack Bowes in the top 100 for ground ball gets (6 players).

In comparison Port Adelaide has Zak Butters, Ollie Wines, Jason Horne-Francis, Charlie Dixon, Willem Drew, Connor Rozee and Scott Lycett in the top 100 for contested possessions (7 players), and Zak Butters, Ollie Wines, Jason Horne-Francis, Willem Drew and Connor Rozee in the top 100 for ground ball gets (5 players).

In other words - not as proficient as Collingwood, better than Brisbane and Melbourne and probably equal with Geelong.
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In an 18 team comp, every team will on average have 5.55 players in the top 100 for every statistical category. It doesn't seem like these particular statistics mean a lot at all given some of the better teams in the comp are below that number. The Kangaroos for example have 7 players in the top 100 for contested possessions.
 
Thank you Warren

I do remember that when we were 1 and 2 I had said that it was over because in order to salvage the season from there we would need to do something absolutely ridiculous like win 10 of our next 12. To achieve that now we need to win 2 of our next 4. Excellent work from all involved.
 
Also I think that to those talking stats, we have a side now where the stats matter less and less.

We've done this on the back of genuine game-winning, league-leading performances, with freakish, game turning plays we haven't seen since Robbie. Zak Butters is THE best player in the AFL over the last two months. Not best at Port Adelaide, but best in the AFL. Rozee and JHF have had some incredible performances too.

Its bringing other players with them. Wines is probably back to 80% of his best now, which is the highest level he's played at since his Brownlow year. Drew understands his role and does it perfectly.
 
Having to play Jonas is a massive concern if we want to achieve anything this year. Really liked Jones' game yesterday yet he'll probably be dropped this week.

The positive is he'd be a good replacement in the d50 if Bergman was to leave. Maybe even a net gain if he is traded for wanganeen-milera or Philippou (I'd still prefer we keep him).
 
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philreich said:
For mine, there's 1 big difference between 2023 and previous years. In recent years, the opposition has usually felt confident that Port was beatable, but this year we're never beaten until the final siren. We must be some sort of chance to be 12-2 at the bye, which would have been way beyond anyone's expectation at the start of the year.

Oh, and if Butters keeps playing like he has in recent weeks, he could win the Brownlow with a record number of votes.
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www.afl.com.au

'We will never give up': Hinkley hails comeback heroes

Ken Hinkley says his players believed they could win from anywhere
www.afl.com.au www.afl.com.au
 
I'm not even sure how the stat is formulated, but I'd like to know the difference in our pressure rating between rounds 2-3 and 4-11.

To me, this is where significant improvement has come from. We harass the opposition ball carrier with ridiculous intensity, and our smalls just get to work. It's the 2017 Richmond without the chaos ball- question is, have opposition teams structured to counter it on the back of Richmond's dynasty?
 
Half way through and we are second on the ladder with a Club record of nine consecutive wins in sight, who'd have thought it eh ?

We do not have an easy run home and our percentage is not great but four more wins should see us make the eight and possibly extend Ken Hinkley's tenure for another two years.

I am probably not the only one with mixed feelings atm. Great to see us winning but I am not all warm and fuzzy about the consequences.
 
Macca_1870 said:
I'm not even sure how the stat is formulated, but I'd like to know the difference in our pressure rating between rounds 2-3 and 4-11.

To me, this is where significant improvement has come from. We harass the opposition ball carrier with ridiculous intensity, and our smalls just get to work. It's the 2017 Richmond without the chaos ball- question is, have opposition teams structured to counter it on the back of Richmond's dynasty?
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Yeah, I have wondered about this pressure rating. It has to be someone's subjective judgement. Although maybe they take tackles etc into account? So many stats these days.
 
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