2015 Fixture

[blaargh]

This draw is perfect for our group.

As we,know from 2014 burgo will have pur group at peak fitness for the opening rounds, back them off for the round 10-18ish then pre-season them again for the finals.

Could not have asked for a better fixture.

 

[xflamedancer]

Why the angst? We've got a glorious, blockbuster draw. Any perceived "difficulty" to a draw becomes a non-factor once a team is a top-4 quality. It's those scrapping for the 8 who become dependant on a good draw to get them through- and who quickly get shown up once they do, like Richmond two months back.

You have misunderstood what I've posted and why. It wasn't a whinge about how 'difficult' the draw is. It doesn't matter how hard the first five of our games are perceived or even whether or not we have been set up by Gill or anyone else, those first five teams are looking at us and thinking about having to come up against us in the early part of the draw. On our game we will beat anyone, anywhere, anytime. We will make our own luck through hard work, teamwork and determination no matter what the draw is.

I'm fired up about next season and I am quietly confident about what we will achieve.

The main point of what I posted earlier is bring it the * on!

Does that clarify my thinking

 

[TheFVK]

Note to *. We are not a powerhouse. You reckon those clubs were gifted the hardest fixture in the league before they became premiers or grand final regulars? Take a look at Hawthorn's 2008 fixture.... weak as piss... especially the first 8 games where they got the momentum and belief that they could compete. Crows of 2012 very nearly landed a grand final berth on the back of the softest fixture ever devised by HQ (they got it because SA footy was nearly dead at the time btw). I'm not here to make preemptive excuses, and I will embrace the blockbusters and appreciate the additional exposure (which should be a given anyway, not something we are happy about nor need to discuss but something that should be automatic given our rise up the ladder, membership numbers and game style), but based on where we are at, the fixture and it's challenges is a joke - an additional hurdle for us to overcome.

And equally in 2013 Hawthorn played all of the previous year's finalists in the first seven rounds- and this didn't stop them from finishing top or winning the premiership.

And to say the draw is unfair? We finished 3rd, and as the draw difficulty rating below shows we have the 3rd most difficult draw.

Seems pretty fair to me?

To wrap up this circular argument I'm just not seeing any evidence that a draw has ever been the difference between a side winning a premiership and missing out. What I have seen is teams getting ahead of themselves with their "easy draw" and losing to traffic cones like Melbourne and West Coast at home. And at the end of the day if we don't snare the flag next year, playing Hawthorn at home on Anzac Day night instead of GWS isn't likely to be our downfall.

 

[El_Scorcho]

And equally in 2013 Hawthorn played all of the previous year's finalists in the first seven rounds- and this didn't stop them from finishing top or winning the premiership.

And to say the draw is unfair? We finished 3rd, and as the draw difficulty rating below shows we have the 3rd most difficult draw.

Seems pretty fair to me?

To wrap up this circular argument I'm just not seeing any evidence that a draw has ever been the difference between a side winning a premiership and missing out. What I have seen is teams getting ahead of themselves with their "easy draw" and losing to traffic cones like Melbourne and West Coast at home. And at the end of the day if we don't snare the flag next year, playing Hawthorn at home on Anzac Day night instead of GWS isn't likely to be our downfall.

That infographic is a skewed joke.

Hawthorn get hard draw points for playing in Tasmania. They get points for having to fly there and it isn't considered a home game against interstate opposition.

Also, the fact that if you have to travel half the time, you're at home to a travelling team the other half is totally ignored.

Hawthorn's draw is not harder than ours.

 

[Lou Zyffer]

This draw is perfect for our group.

As we,know from 2014 burgo will have pur group at peak fitness for the opening rounds, back them off for the round 10-18ish then pre-season them again for the finals.

Could not have asked for a better fixture.

One advantage of our draw is the fact that the teams we come up against early, like us, will have had a reduced pre-season which is probably better than coming up against a team on the rise who just missed the eight when they've had that little bit extra pre-season compared to us. The round 5 showdown is the first game against a non finalist i.e. team having had a longer pre-season which works out quite nicely I reckon.

I for one am confident we'll win more than we lose of those five games.

 

[philreich]

One advantage of our draw is the fact that the teams we come up against early, like us, will have had a reduced pre-season which is probably better than coming up against a team on the rise who just missed the eight when they've had that little bit extra pre-season compared to us. The round 5 showdown is the first game against a non finalist i.e. team having had a longer pre-season which works out quite nicely I reckon.

I for one am confident we'll win more than we lose of those five games.

Yep: I'm only scared about one thing: injuries. I don't think any opponent or venue frightens this awesomely talented group - bring it on!!!!

 

[Waspy79]

Right, but not the full story.
We are in this comp to stay in this comp in the proper shape to win premierships.
'Proper shape' includes sufficient revenue and the draw either contributes to that or detracts from it.

It's the chicken or the egg argument in some ways. Personally I believe winning drives everything. Everyone loves a winner.

And equally in 2013 Hawthorn played all of the previous year's finalists in the first seven rounds- and this didn't stop them from finishing top or winning the premiership.

And to say the draw is unfair? We finished 3rd, and as the draw difficulty rating below shows we have the 3rd most difficult draw.

Seems pretty fair to me?

To wrap up this circular argument I'm just not seeing any evidence that a draw has ever been the difference between a side winning a premiership and missing out. What I have seen is teams getting ahead of themselves with their "easy draw" and losing to traffic cones like Melbourne and West Coast at home. And at the end of the day if we don't snare the flag next year, playing Hawthorn at home on Anzac Day night instead of GWS isn't likely to be our downfall.

I place very little weight on this fixture assessment. Check out the Champion Data analysis. Has Cats and Port miles on top for hardest 2015 fixtures, Hawks a distant third. Many argued that missing the top 4 this year cost us a grand final place so to suggest the fixture doesn't change a club's fortunes is very naieve. Yes so did bad kicking, but as a whole, if we played Saint Kilda twice instead of Sydney, do we win a 2014 flag?

 

[TeeKray]

Do you think Hawthorn, Sydney and Freo are that wrapped with the fact that they have to play Port twice? We are the hard draw!

 

[TheFVK]

That infographic is a skewed joke.

Hawthorn get hard draw points for playing in Tasmania. They get points for having to fly there and it isn't considered a home game against interstate opposition.

Also, the fact that if you have to travel half the time, you're at home to a travelling team the other half is totally ignored.

Hawthorn's draw is not harder than ours.

It's the chicken or the egg argument in some ways. Personally I believe winning drives everything. Everyone loves a winner.



I place very little weight on this fixture assessment. Check out the Champion Data analysis. Has Cats and Port miles on top for hardest 2015 fixtures, Hawks a distant third.

Quibbles on whether Hawthorn have the first or third hardest draw aside, point is we finished top 3 and have a top 3 draw. This includes an array of blockbusters with other sides around and below us. Based on our finishing position, what we don't deserve is a bunch of double-ups against crap opponents in s**t timeslots.

Many argued that missing the top 4 this year cost us a grand final place so to suggest the fixture doesn't change a club's fortunes is very naieve.

Ok so we finish Top 4 this year. This gives us, by my calculations- wait for it- an away final versus Hawthorn or Sydney. Or maybe a real easy draw would sneak us into Top 2? Either way you spin it, we've still got to beat 2 of the best 3 teams in knockout finals to win a flag. If we're that fragile that a harder or easier draw is the difference between us even making it that far we'll be shown up for the frauds that we are, as Richmond were 2 months ago and as we were 7 years ago.

"The strongest steel is forged in the hottest fire"- and I'm sure Ken wouldn't have it any other way.

 

[Waspy79]

I admire your very positive analysis * but the reality is very different. I'll take a premiership any way we can get one, and history shows that it's best achieved from top 4, better still top 2. Good luck to the boys on getting there as they will need it. Play on.

 

[PhoenixPower]

And equally in 2013 Hawthorn played all of the previous year's finalists in the first seven rounds- and this didn't stop them from finishing top or winning the premiership.

And to say the draw is unfair? We finished 3rd, and as the draw difficulty rating below shows we have the 3rd most difficult draw.

Seems pretty fair to me?

To wrap up this circular argument I'm just not seeing any evidence that a draw has ever been the difference between a side winning a premiership and missing out. What I have seen is teams getting ahead of themselves with their "easy draw" and losing to traffic cones like Melbourne and West Coast at home. And at the end of the day if we don't snare the flag next year, playing Hawthorn at home on Anzac Day night instead of GWS isn't likely to be our downfall.

How do we get a 1 for "home vs interstate" but the crows get a 2. Shouldn't we both be a 1? Or am I stuffing this up

It's too early and my brain is fried

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

So who has the easy ride against the Essendon VFL side for the first 10 weeks??

 

[Moses01]

$120 return flights to Melbourne available until midnight tonight with Virgin. Just booked flights to the Carlton and Essendon game.

 

[Nelso]

$120 return flights to Melbourne available until midnight tonight with Virgin. Just booked flights to the Carlton and Essendon game.

Thanks for that

I have just booked for the Carlton game - fly in and out on the same day

 

[simba_]

saying the draw is easy or hard is based on how the teams went in 2014. we could come out and romp freo by 70 points. then everything you think goes out the window. to give up on the 2015 season before it's even 2015 because the draw looks hard is incredible.

 

[Andre]

So who has the easy ride against the Essendon VFL side for the first 10 weeks??

Geez, Sydney, Hawks, Dockers, Kangaroos and Cats all get them in the first 10 rounds. Hawks again in Round 13. Another favour from our mate Gil, ensuring all the top 4 chances potentially get the game to rest players and/or boost percentage except us. Only surprise is he didn't put Adelaide to play them in the first handful of rounds in anticipation of a suspension.

 

[VineValerian]

Does the SNAFL fixture come out in about a week (not two weeks )?

 

[mic59]

Note to *. We are not a powerhouse. You reckon those clubs were gifted the hardest fixture in the league before they became premiers or grand final regulars? Take a look at Hawthorn's 2008 fixture.... weak as piss... especially the first 8 games where they got the momentum and belief that they could compete. Crows of 2012 very nearly landed a grand final berth on the back of the softest fixture ever devised by HQ (they got it because SA footy was nearly dead at the time btw). I'm not here to make preemptive excuses, and I will embrace the blockbusters and appreciate the additional exposure (which should be a given anyway, not something we are happy about nor need to discuss but something that should be automatic given our rise up the ladder, membership numbers and game style), but based on where we are at, the fixture and it's challenges is a joke - an additional hurdle for us to overcome.

Calculated those two based on this ratings point key.

Although the cows draw in 2012 is the one that is generally more discussed among us, the fact is in 2011 they were 14th and by the ratings probably relatively deserving of an easy draw. It was hugely easy, worth 45 points when it would have been expected to be around the hardness of St Kilda's 2015 draw, 53 points. But that is not all that much.

The main objection was they played the bottom and the new team twice while we only had each of them once and had a draw of 61 points, around that for a team that finished 12th the year before. And we finished 16th out of 17 in 2011.

Hawthorn's draw was only slightly more difficult than the cows, and with the argument about York Park could be looked on as just as easy. Although at that time York Park was not the stronghold it is now, they still won 3 out of 4 there in 2008. Their draw was 59 points and they were 5th in 2007. As you can see to get a draw like that they should have been in the bottom 6.