2015 Trade/FA Discussion (cont. in Pt.2)

[whatboutbob]

That's right folks. I'm going there already.

Based off this article, the Lions had to pre-pay $1.4m this year just to reach the 95% salary cap minimum.

...which means we've still got a crapload of cap to snag another A-grader or even two next year.

So who / what position are we going to target?

For me the primary target would have to be Tex Walker who's a free agent next year. He seems fairly well embedded, but from all reports their new coach is pretty intense, and Tex seems to be pretty laconic...so who knows?!

Dream big folks! We've got a CEO who's done gone brought the #swagger back!




Footnote: For the record, here's the relevant bit from that article:

The new total player payment rules will also allow Brisbane to pitch for another high-priced star at the end of next year, having recruited Dayne Beams and Allen Christensen this off-season.

Under the rules set out earlier this year, clubs can spent up to 105 per cent of their salary cap in any given season, provided they have "underspent" in any of the previous two years.

Clubs that underspent by, for instance, $500,000 on total player payments and additional service agreements this year are permitted to spend up to $500,00 over the combined limits across 2016 and 2017.

The "banking" rule was backdated for two years, allowing Port Adelaide to recruit Ryder on a lucrative four-year deal given the club had underspent in 2013 due to cash flow reasons.

Port Adelaide also struggled to make minimum payments in 2012, when the club finished 14th.

Brisbane's situation is slightly different to that of the Power, given the Lions needed to pre-pay $1.4 million dollars this year to reach 95 per cent of its cap.

The retirement of Jonathan Brown gave the club extra money to spend this year, and the new rule will leave it well-positioned to go after another star or two at the end of next season.

 

[BL_dobsmob]

Buddy Franklin wants to move north again

 

[jackess]

Aish, Leuey and Rich are priority no. 1.

We need to poach someone from Gold Coast; Lynch or Dixon would be a good start.

I think Robbie Gray might be poachable, maybe even a free agent.

According to the Suns board Dixon will be out of contract.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/current-contract-status-updated-list-in-op.943215/

 

[Tairy Greene]

Hahaha have fun, ZoBlitz!

 

[Billy Puller]

One of west coasts forwards would be ideal. Or maybe someone like tomolinson from GWS? Also Tom lynch would be amazing to have

 

[whatboutbob]

Hahaha have fun, ZoBlitz!

I must confess that ~60% of my motivation in starting this thread was to see if it could be the final straw for ZoBlitz's descent into madness.

On an entirely unrelated note, is it too soon for a 2015 Trade Hypotheticals thread...?

 

[jackess]

2015 Free Agents include;

T Walker, Dangerfield, Cotchin, Swallow and Birchall.

 

[chopperduck]

Plenty of mids, i think we now work on keeping the ones we have. KPF and maybe a KPD are my wants. Go big for a forward, look for some value in a defender.

 

[Ironmonger]

Whoa.

That's amazing if true. The cap is ~$10m, so if we brought forward payments worth $1.4m to reach $9.5m then according to my superhuman powers of arithmetic that means we effectively paid $8.1m in salaries in 2014.

Which means we have the capacity to essentially pay $11.9m in 2015. ($10m+$500k in equalisation+$1.4m from 2015 payments made in 2014).

If we assume the same players are roughly the same value from year to year then that's a gap of $3.8m between what we paid in 2014 and what we have the capacity to pay in 2015.
Assuming we front load Beams and Christensen to the hilt we're talking about over a million dollars in loose change floating around every year from here on.

I guess the most exciting thing is that for the first time in a while we seem to have the credibility to be really able to leverage that cap.

EDIT: Just while I'm thinking about it:

So lets take one of the media's highest guesses at Beams' salary and say he's on $4m over 5 years. For the sake of argument, lets take an equally generous stab at Bundy's salary and say he's on $2m over 4 years ($500k a season; in reality almost certainly less than that)

So that's $6m aggregate, of which we can theoretically pay $3.8m in 2015.

That leaves $2.2m to be met over the remaining seven combined years of their contracts, or a little over $300k for both of them.

So if the $1.4m figure is accurate then going forward we can accommodate both of them under the cap and still have that $1m+ figure I mentioned earlier.

Of course, as our kids develop they'll eat into that $1m. But it's still a pretty handy warchest.

SECOND EDIT: Actually it's more like $1.5m, isn't it? The $1.4m was just to get to 95%.

 

[jackess]

Cameron will obviously be targeted but what would we have to give up in a trade?

 

[ZoBlitz]

Geezus, Bob!

You people can moderate this thread yourself, I'm out!

 

[whatboutbob]

Whoa.

That's amazing if true. The cap is ~$10m, so if we brought forward payments worth $1.4m to reach $9.5m then according to my superhuman powers of arithmetic that means we effectively paid $8.1m in salaries in 2014.

Which means we have the capacity to essentially pay $11.9m in 2015. ($10m+$500k in equalisation+$1.4m from 2015 payments made in 2014).

If we assume the same players are roughly the same value from year to year then that's a gap of $3.8m between what we paid in 2014 and what we have the capacity to pay in 2015.
Assuming we front load Beams and Christensen to the hilt we're talking about over a million dollars in loose change floating around every year from here on.

I guess the most exciting thing is that for the first time in a while we seem to have the credibility to be really able to leverage that cap.

Don't forget the cap increases significantly each year too. While that would've already been factored in by most clubs, I suspect the Lions were so short that it wasn't really a consideration.

 

[whatboutbob]

Geezus, Bob!

You people can moderate this thread yourself, I'm out!

 

[pulpdriver]

Aish, Leuey and Rich are priority no. 1.

We need to poach someone from Gold Coast; Lynch or Dixon would be a good start.

I think Robbie Gray might be poachable, maybe even a free agent.

According to the Suns board Dixon will be out of contract.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/current-contract-status-updated-list-in-op.943215/

Not worried about Rich, he'll re-sign. Leuie will likely be paid as well or better with us than he would anywhere else and it's a comfortable, familiar environment with friends, his decision will probably depends on how things go this year in tandem with Martin. I have absolutely no idea what Aish will do but if he re-signs whilst he'll get a handsome contract for a two year player, there's still going to be an abundance of cap.

 

[pulpdriver]

I had no idea our cap space would be that large, Swann wasn't lying when he said it was the biggest he'd ever seen. Have to agree with Bob, Walker should be priority 1. Awesome player, perfect age to complement our list and won't cost us anything in a trade. Just have to convince him to come North.

I suppose it's a long way out and we've tended to overrate our Academy prospects but what is the likelihood we have our first pick tied up in Keays?

 

[Kevvo]

Whoa.

That's amazing if true. The cap is ~$10m, so if we brought forward payments worth $1.4m to reach $9.5m then according to my superhuman powers of arithmetic that means we effectively paid $8.1m in salaries in 2014.

Which means we have the capacity to essentially pay $11.9m in 2015. ($10m+$500k in equalisation+$1.4m from 2015 payments made in 2014).

If we assume the same players are roughly the same value from year to year then that's a gap of $3.8m between what we paid in 2014 and what we have the capacity to pay in 2015.
Assuming we front load Beams and Christensen to the hilt we're talking about over a million dollars in loose change floating around every year from here on.

I guess the most exciting thing is that for the first time in a while we seem to have the credibility to be really able to leverage that cap.

That really is staggering money, put that way. It's hard to get a key forward to move clubs, but we'll be pretty much totally unconstrained by salary even after (hopefully) re-signing the likes of Rich, Leuey and Aish. I'd say we'll also look to make big pre-payments for a couple of years, given we won't have too many big earners retiring for a while now, and our core now are all at an age where their next contracts will be the big ones (for those who arern't on long term contracts like Hanley and Beams). To the extent we can cash them up early and get them to re-sign, we can really lock in the platform for a sustained period of competitiveness.

Even with all of those things being the case, it's hard not to see a scenario where we have well over a million lined up to throw at a FA or two.

 

[Mr Ripper]

Patty K.

 

[Fatcat08]

If you look at the key forwards around the league there really is a shortage of really op line key forwards at the moment hence Boyd's massive price tag. After the few top line there are a fair few role players who are on the end of decent midfields

Adelaide: Walker
Carlton: only second tier forwards
Collingwood: Cloke
Dons: only second tier forwards, possibly
Fremantle: an ageing Pav
Geelong: Hawkins, Possibly Mitch
GC: Lynch, Day, Dixon
Giants: Patton, Cameron, then unknown McCartney
Hawks: Roughy and gunston plays his role given his size
Melbourne: Hogan is their big hope
Kangas: Petrie probably row below top tier then part players in Black and Tarrant although they brought in Waite this year so what does that say
Port: No real power forward more role players, get a lot of goals from Wingard and Gray and Monfries. Westhoff and Shulz are solid more than real power guys.
Richmond: Reiwoldt
Saints: Reiwoldt
Swans: Buddy, Tippett then a step down to Reid
WC: Kennedy and Darling
WB: Boyd now

Really there are a few extra role players here and there in teams but they're the main ones. If you look at that list the sides with the most are the suns and sydney so first step would be to look at either of them. If we can't get one of the main guys then I'm not convinced we should be looking for part players. Re Dixon I'm not sure whether he would leave given he's been there since the start but worth having a crack. Reid is probably the interesting one still next year given buddy and tippett are there and goodes is going round again. He could be very frustrated by this time next year and is probably still worth a crack.

For mine our forward line next year is largely linked to the contribution that the resting ruckman can make. Close will have natural progression but we need some contributions from the rucks. We also need to lock down that third tall role as well but I have hopes that McStay may be able to fill that long term. Perhaps Maguane shorter term will have something to offer there. I also think if Mayes goes back forward he will have plenty to offer in terms of goals, he's a good size and is a natural half forward flanker.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

10,070,000 x .95 = 10,165,000
10,165,000 - 1.4m(pre-payments) = 8,765,000 (True Representation of our cap now)

2015
Assuming Beams contract would be front load to around the 900k mark, (probably banking another 150k of his actual contract worth, 750k/5years has been reported)
Christensen 400k according to some sources

Would push our cap back to 10,065,000 (which is still under 95% required spend)
Thats not excluding Brown, McGrath, Moloney, Patfull, Polks and Raines contracts to come off that tally either.

With us pre-paying 1.4mil last year, it would cover most of the heavy lifting involved in Rich/Rockliff/Hanley/Leuy etc contract already.

Even with Beams and Christensens addition It looks like we will be pre-paying somewhere around the same amount this next year just to achieve the 95% again.

So heading into the 2015 off season we could be looking at 5% cap space+ 5% equalisation + 3mil+ in prepaid contracts

Nice........

 

[James North]

Nup.

 

[Bucking Beads]

We need talls. Things might change if we lose a midfielder though.

 

[knaf]

Moore from Collingwood?

 

[winged1]

For me it is Cameron or Tom Lynch. Cameron would be difficult, but would be willing to throw the $$ at Lynch.

 

[rockypls]

Tex would never leave, he's already stated that he isn't a fan of FA. Best bet would be Tippett or Dixon.

 

[Lace Out]

Not sure I want Tippett anymore,not for millions anyway, which is what he'd want.