2017 Trade & FA Targets - The Last Supper #Ameetos

[sammm]

No I said they have a better top 5 players than us. Guys like Pendles and Sidey are still in that team from their last successful period because they drafted better. They have been s**t lately because they try the AFL version of a get rich quick scheme. They need to go and draft kids and wait their turn instead of over paying for ready made talent. Geelong is probably the only other team that has gone as hard as Collingwood on recycling players and they are a lot closer but at some point you think the cats will have a day of reckoning where they fall hard.

Hawthorn also did the recycling. It worked but now they will pay.

 

[bergholt]

View attachment 425833

This also has the guys who didn't play:

https://www.draftguru.com.au/lists/2013/st-kilda

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

We may now have the least experienced list in the AFL and this past season Steven was well below his best for most of it, Armo played just 2 games, Roo hobbled around well below his form of the previous year for much of it and Joey was also worse, and then not playing at all in the last few games. 7 of the top 11 in our B&F the previous year had significantly worse seasons this year, with all of them being 25yo or older.

Then on top of all that we got bugger-all out of Paddy, Goddard and Freeman.

Yet despite all that and our atrocious kicking for goal, we were still a chance of making the finals right up until the last day of the H&A season, off a difficult draw!

I reckon we're going OK and that if we select even just solidly if we keep 7 and 8, we'll be a couple of steps closer to having a team that will be able to have a sustained crack at winning premierships from as soon as 2019 onwards (depending on when we finally land a "big fish" with all our spare cap space), like we did from 2004-2011.

Once we show to the rest of the footy world that we've moved on from being reliant on Roo and Joey and we start making finals and looking like we're really going somewhere, then we'll start being a really desirable place to be traded to, by those who have a lot of really good options in front of them.

We're coming from a long, long way back, as far as our list goes. A few years ago it was terrible.

Rome wasn't built in a day.

Outstanding post.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Sainttony]

This is a fair post. A lot can change in 2 years. Unfortunately, I was banking on a big offseason. Call me foolish, but I every single best 22 I have done for the last 12 months has features 1 of Fyfe, Martin or Kelly. The difference in how it makes us look on paper is immense.

Landing a star would have papered over a lot of cracks. In reality, I don't think our drafting has been that great. The 2014 draft year had to be huge for us if the 5 year plan was going to work. It has killed us thus far. A big part of that has been bad luck with Goddard and McCartin injuries. However, taking McCartin number 1 is a pretty epic blunder IMO. I know some on here don't rate Petracca. Personally, I rate him very highly. I don't care what the stat sheets say, he will be a very good player in this league.

I am still bemused by our inability to land a midfielder. I get we will target one in this years draft, but they will likely not have an impact until 2020. We have had plenty to time to get this right, and it remains a massive issue.

I think trying to attract stars to our club is always going to be difficult given our history. Sure we can put stacks of money to them but one flag in 120 years, Seaford and a tendency to implode on ourselves frequently will always go against us.

So sensibly we go to the draft, sure Trout will get some wrong and he may have with Goddard and McCartin but we don't know yet. I don't think his strike rate is any better or worse than others.

What I do get frustrated with is the rate of development. Players in 2 and 3 Rs years at other clubs always seem more impactful.

I think we just have to wait. I do expect us to go backwards ladder wise next year but that does not mean we are not a better team. 2020 onwards will be this groups time.

 

[StCicatriz]

i wonder if the pies know that bucks is pretty much mirroring carlton of 2001, which is NOT a good thing

i reckon culturally the club is pretty bang on for carlton circa 2004-2006

 

[TheBalls]

A big part of that has been bad luck with Goddard and McCartin injuries. However, taking McCartin number 1 is a pretty epic blunder IMO. I know some on here don't rate Petracca. Personally, I rate him very highly. I don't care what the stat sheets say, he will be a very good player in this league.

I am still bemused by our inability to land a midfielder. I get we will target one in this years draft, but they will likely not have an impact until 2020. We have had plenty to time to get this right, and it remains a massive issue.

Petracca has shown potential but nothing deserving of the hype he gets. There is nothing so far to suggest that picking him over McCartin would be the difference between us contending or not.

On the midfielder thing, we cannot bank on being able to land a star mid from elsewhere - if this is our sole strategy for success then we are dumb as s**t banking on something we have no control over. The majority of elite mids don't move clubs or haven't moved clubs recently.

The main motivator for leaving seems to be money and always involves the destination club having to pay overs which has some risks. If rumours are to be believed there are murmurs of discontent at Melbourne caused by Lever's contract / Watts being pushed out. Same thing could happen to us and we have what seems a pretty good equilibrium right now.

If an Elite mid doesn't want to leave (and odds are this will be the case) then we need to draft our own.

We've had a crack at Fyfe and Kelly and they didn't want to leave so we go to the draft as it's our only other option.

 

[sunny3193]

Bear in mind we had;

- Dal jettisoned via FA.
- Kosi, Blake and Milne retired.
- Staley, Ledger, Ferguson, Saad and Lever delisted, then;

- McEvoy traded out, and;
- Delaney, Bruce and Longer traded in.

So, strictly, the pre-draft squad was:

FB: Dempster - Delaney - Geary
HB: Roberton - Fisher - Gilbert
RK: Hickey - Armitage - Jones
CR: Montagna - Hayes - Ray
HF: Milera - Riewoldt - Steven
FF: Schneider - Maister - Stanley

IC (from): Simpkin Ross Gwilt Bruce Curren Webster Longer Newnes Saunders Siposs Wright Lee Dennis-Lane Murdoch Dunell Minchington Shenton

So of that squad of 35, currently only 13 remain, and this is a rough equivalency of their replacements:

Dempster - White
Delaney - Brown
Fisher - Carlisle
Jones - Dunstan
Hayes - Steele
Montagna - Sinclair
Ray - Acres
Milera - Gresham
Riewoldt - irreplaceable*
Schneider - Lonie
Maister - McCartin
Stanley - Marshall
Simpkin - Goddard
Gwilt - Rice
Curren - O’Kearney
Saunders - Freeman
Siposs - Battle
Lee - Membrey
Dennis-Lane - Billings
Murdoch - Savage
Dunell - McKenzie
Shenton - Weller

Plus Long, Phillips, Connellan, Joyce, Pierce and Holmes, who don’t have equivalents that I’m comfortable with, and allowing for Bruce as the rough Riewoldt equivalency.

I think it’s fair to say we’re miles ahead.

This is why we pay you the big bucks!!

 

[can coach]

The more you think about it , it would be a little silly trading good draft picks for a Gaff or Sloane when we could get them for free next year.

 

[SaintLex]

We challenged for finals in each of the last two years with a list that hasn't even hit puberty (in AFL list standards) most of our players aren't the finished product and those same players are years way from their prime.

If we can add Tomlinson by trading out Hickey and go to the draft with 7+8 then we are tracking well.

I believe if Paddy can kick 40 this year coming and play every week that we will be playing finals. He will be the barometer.

Is this based on anything other than Batman's alias coming onto the board and telling us it's a done deal?

 

[Barrels]

This is why we pay you the big bucks!!

I did suggest to Ameet he employ me once.

He was unmoved.

That’s why we pay HIM the big bucks...

 

[1873 United]

Drafted players are a slow burn, more so now than ever before. When questioning why a player takes 4, 5 & 6 seasons to mature, it is due to the significant difference in TAC/under age football to league footy. Players struggle to come to terms with the way the game is played, it is almost foreign to them in their first season. We do see the odd player that walks straight in, however, they are like hens teeth.

 

[Greg1853]

This is a fair post. A lot can change in 2 years. Unfortunately, I was banking on a big offseason. Call me foolish, but I every single best 22 I have done for the last 12 months has features 1 of Fyfe, Martin or Kelly. The difference in how it makes us look on paper is immense.

Landing a star would have papered over a lot of cracks. In reality, I don't think our drafting has been that great. The 2014 draft year had to be huge for us if the 5 year plan was going to work. It has killed us thus far. A big part of that has been bad luck with Goddard and McCartin injuries. However, taking McCartin number 1 is a pretty epic blunder IMO. I know some on here don't rate Petracca. Personally, I rate him very highly. I don't care what the stat sheets say, he will be a very good player in this league.

I am still bemused by our inability to land a midfielder. I get we will target one in this years draft, but they will likely not have an impact until 2020. We have had plenty to time to get this right, and it remains a massive issue.

Bill, I wanted to land a big fish midfielder as much as anyone. Knowing that it might come at the expense of 2 1st round draft picks meant that I was not going to get too hung up either way. I accept that going to the draft instead possibly puts us back a smidgeon in regards to "peaking". However, these things are always impacted by so many other variables, I don't think it is a game changer. For example, Richmond are on their way to peaking, but stole one early, and potentially may not win another despite starting next year with a list that will probably be an improvement on their current list.

I probably would have preferred Petracca too, but if we took him, and had a midfield one step closing to where we wanted it, we would be desperately chasing a young key forward, and be cursing the fact that none are available at present.

Back to the midfield, how great is it to know that we have a Lenny Hayes type in Jack Steele, who we paid well under the odds for. He is just going to get better. Whether he becomes elite may depend upon whether you call elite best 10 in comp, or 20, or 40, etc. However, him and Ross are good enough that I am not going to worry about Jack Steven being 30 in a couple of years. By this point I am sure our midfield will still be improving as a whole, not declining.

I really think in all likelihood most of us aren't thinking much differently, but just see things slightly differently after the disappointment in not landing a big fish (yet), and with the uncertainty presently over Freeman/McCartin/Goddard.

I always appreciate engaging with people with slightly different views, as it is the best way to see a different viewpoint and therefore learn something.

 

[Barrels]

This is a fantastic post

The only ones we aren't ahead on are:
Gwilt
Hayes (pretty hard to replace)
Schnieder

We break even for:
Fisher
Joey
Stanley
Curren

Ta.

However, I’d argue we are ahead on Gwilt on the basis that it’s effectively Webster for him, and that Gwilty’s output in his last years with us - for a number of disparate reasons - was pretty poor.

 

[aussierulesrules]

We'd be silly not look at trading Armitage if
GC are genuinely keen. They have three very early second round picks, if we were to get one it'd be overs.

He's 30 next year and his body looks to be struggling.

Not sure he'd be keen to move though.

If trading Armo did in fact get us a pick inside 30, or make the difference between GC being wiling to trade 2 and 19 for 7 and 8, then it could indeed be well worthwhile, for obvious reasons.

I wouldn't be casting him aside just for a junk type pick, or salary dump though, as if he's able to get his body sorted (a big "if", but Gilbo and Chips looked or were called "cooked" about 3-5 years ago and came back well), he will be bloody handy for us (either in the side, or as a fantastic depth option), plus he would be excellent experience and leadership for us, just like he would GC- with us also being very young.

If he gets back to full fitness like he seemed to be last preseason (when he was coming top 5 in time trials, etc) then he would still most likely be better than Koby, and he gives us more run and spread than the likes of Dunstan/Steele/Koby, so would help our in/out balance. It was that part of his game improving so much off greater fitness that made him improve so much in 2015. He also kicks goals. As SS also says, he's been our best at winning contested ball over the last several years, so that's always welcome.

If he is just depth though, he's bloody good depth! Not too many sides would have an Armitage sitting in their 2nds ready to come in and potentially be just as good as whoever they're replacing from the main team's midfield, if they get injured/suspended. He's the type that could help you win a final if brought in to replace an injured Dunstan/Steele for example, especially if the other alternative was bringing in someone with 10 games experience.

 

[Saintos The ITK]

So for a player to come to the Saints, statistically they won’t win a premiership unless they then transfer to another club and then they have a pretty good chance.
But.
The further we get from our last flag the closer we get to our next.

Unless we don’t win our next until 2070 or beyond.
But that couldn’t happen.
Could it.

 

[Lightsxo]

I’d argue we are ahead on Gwilt on the basis that it’s effectively Webster for him, and that Gwilty’s output in his last years with us - for a number of disparate reasons - was pretty poor.

Definitely, Webster is becoming as important to us as Robbo was.

No coincidence when he went down vs Carlton we played awful and had no drive and that continued vs Dogs and Swans.

I love that he tries the impossible kick and backs himself. He *s it up and that's okay but at least he tries. Sure it's annoying to see him thread the needle when you can have a easy kick but he knows he's a good kick and goes for it.

Very nice counterpart to the more reliable and consistent Robbo.

 

[sverik25]

This sound extremely pessimistic but if McCartin can be a Hawkins level player I'll take it.

Hawkins cops a fair bit of crap on BF but in reality he is a very solid KPF and if Paddy is able to match his output we'll have done pretty well.

Since Hawkins finally hit his straps in 2012 (notice it took 5 seasons for him to reach this point), he has kicked:

2012 - 62.38
2013 - 49.20
2014 - 68.40
2015 - 46.20
2016 - 55.31
2017 - 51.26

That's a pretty good consistent output, and if Paddy can manage that alongside Bruce and Membrey then I reckon we're a very good chance to have won our second flag.

 

[Sainter88]

This is a fantastic post

The only ones we aren't ahead on are:
Gwilt
Hayes (pretty hard to replace)
Schnieder

We break even for:
Fisher
Joey
Stanley
Curren

Yep agree with all of that except for probably Curren, Curren played 24 games where as I think NOK would have been a better player but it looks like he might be delisted which will be a shame.

 

[The_Steadier]

I wonder who on the list we're going to choose to overpay to hit 105% cap if we take 7 & 8 to the draft?

MG said it as well as anyone; there's only so much frontloading you can do.
And we've been frontloading for a long time now.

Plus roo and joey off the books.

Someone's gonna get a renegotiated contract with an undeserved xmas bonus

 

[StCicatriz]

So for a player to come to the Saints, statistically they won’t win a premiership unless they then transfer to another club and then they have a pretty good chance.
But.
The further we get from our last flag the closer we get to our next.

Unless we don’t win our next until 2070 or beyond.
But that couldn’t happen.
Could it.

I hope not.

My gut tells me we won't have to wait much longer. Inside 18 years IMO.

 

[Louis Slungpue]

So for a player to come to the Saints, statistically they won’t win a premiership unless they then transfer to another club and then they have a pretty good chance.
But.
The further we get from our last flag the closer we get to our next.

Unless we don’t win our next until 2070 or beyond.
But that couldn’t happen.
Could it.

*in hope it doesnt ill be dead in 2070 lmao

 

[hayes]

**** i still wish we had Hayes

I'm not going anywhere mate!

 

[STK2020]

I'm not going anywhere mate!

Hasnt anyone told you yet ?
Your involved in a trade to get Warrick Capper on our board to provide expert opinion and intellectual thought

 

[Stewart66]

I wonder who on the list we're going to choose to overpay to hit 105% cap if we take 7 & 8 to the draft?

MG said it as well as anyone; there's only so much frontloading you can do.
And we've been frontloading for a long time now.

Plus roo and joey off the books.

Someone's gonna get a renegotiated contract with an undeserved xmas bonus

Not really you just pay new draftees their 2 years now..when picked this year

 

[bird_man]

I wonder who on the list we're going to choose to overpay to hit 105% cap if we take 7 & 8 to the draft?

MG said it as well as anyone; there's only so much frontloading you can do.
And we've been frontloading for a long time now.

Plus roo and joey off the books.

Someone's gonna get a renegotiated contract with an undeserved xmas bonus

Surely we can just front load again and then offer guys like Sloane and Gaff ridiculous contracts that they can't say no to next year?