Mega Thread ALP Leadership Spill - 26 June 2013

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GuruJane said:
The grub and the slug. Deserve each other.

Have read up on Shortens b'ground in the book "Downfall" written by one of Shortens mates (AFR journo Aaron Patrick,) a very favourable account. But from it realised that Shorten, supposedly the hope of the future, the heir to Hawke, is nothing more than a showboating, social climbing purveyor of cheap and easy lies.

Then listening to his torturous denial that he had been dishonest on radio today, no self awareness, none at all. It's that ingrained. He does not realise how he has exposed himself.

Should have known Contra's assessment would be spot on when I got sucked in by him last year.
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He's played it masterfully. He is inches away from being Labor leader.

Howes is probably devastated now, but he'll be fine when he realises the position his mentor now holds.
 

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Caesar said:
Combet is from the left and the AWU will want nothing to do with him.

Jason Clare getting the gig will require Paul Howes to shift his support back to the NSW Right. God help the ALP if that happens, it's pretty much the only thing that could make their situation worse.
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Just pulling a couple of talents out of the hat who do have credibility and integrity left. Jason is still underdone, imo, but he is a potential for sure. I don't think factions will matter so much when Labor is next in opposition.
 
I can't see a politician from Canberra being made leader of either party. Dramatically reduces their appeal.
 

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GuruJane said:
Just pulling a couple of talents out of the hat who do have credibility and integrity left. Jason is still underdone, imo, but he is a potential for sure. I don't think factions will matter so much when Labor is next in opposition.
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dont think factions will matter so much period. the ALP as a coherent entity is starting to break down and the only thing keeping them even remotely viable this election will be kevin 07 on steroids (or whatever they took at Essendon;))
 
Lach72 said:
Out of interest, where would you start making the cuts to get out of debt?
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* knows. I'm not in the detail of the budget.

The Libs won't do most of these, but my off the cuff response would include looking at the following:
- reduce gonski - 6% increase in funding is FAR too much
- cap planned PPL at 50k payout (100k salary) and pay for by an insurance program similar to workcover
- reduce spending on defence, in particular keep our current subs - we have no threats with better subs than us (I don't buy the Chinese as being a threat, they own too many assets overseas and are too reliant on exports to get in any wars, and are too smart)
- remove negative gearing on investment properties, however still keep deductions for (ie, you can only deduct expenses up to your income on a particular property)
- phase out the reduction of the capital gains tax deduction to make it in line with income tax
- renegotiate the mining tax with the states - all revenue to be shared 50/50 with the states and Fed share to go to 1) paying back debt, 2) sovereign investment fund
- phase in the halving of family tax benefit A and B
- change the tax act so any foreign investment income or capital gains is taxed at the full company rate
- cancel NRAS - replace with a new scheme to just build low income houses 50/50 with the states on a per head of population basis (ie, WA gets about 10%, SA about 7%, etc) - about 50% less houses will be built, but they will all be owned by the states, not by private interests and will be available to rent at lower rates than under NRAS
- renegotiate PBS rates with pharma companies to guarantee the average of the 3 lowest prices of all OECD countries - otherwise you can't get your meds on the list
- dump the increase in the aged care sector and child care workers - why the government is getting involved in that is beyond me, that is what fair work and the award system is for
- cut the government workforce

I wouldn't touch:
- university funding (its our future)
- infrastructure spending (we actually get an asset and increased productivity out of this spending)

What we really need to control:
- the increase in spending on health - it isn't health cost inflation that is killing us, it is the amount of tests and treatments people are doing, we need to find a way to have more cost benefit analysis in health - seems harsh but if it grew by $40b over the past decade - this is unsustainable

Things a lot of people talking about the economy forget:
- mining income will not drop as long as our exchange rate drops as fast (I think gold will sit around 1,500 AUD an ounce, iron ore around $125 a tonne - as though their prices will drop to 1,200 USD/oz and 100 USD/t, our exchange rate will settle back to around 80 cents - provided we do the below)
- contractionary fiscal policy will allow the RBA to lower interest rates, which stimulates house construction, retail and small business sectors - this increase in investment and consumption should balance the reduction in government spending - further this will help our exchange rate drop as people stop putting money in Australia

Just some poorly thought out ideas.
 
I don't follow politics that closely. Is it naive to think Shorten did this for the good of the party? It seemed a rational enough decision and if the polls are accurate Labours best chance. And in making the move he's really come off as a dick.
 
greennick said:
**** knows. I'm not in the detail of the budget.

The Libs won't do most of these, but my off the cuff response would include looking at the following:
- reduce gonski - 6% increase in funding is FAR too much
- cap planned PPL at 50k payout (100k salary) and pay for by an insurance program similar to workcover
- reduce spending on defence, in particular keep our current subs - we have no threats with better subs than us (I don't buy the Chinese as being a threat, they own too many assets overseas and are too reliant on exports to get in any wars, and are too smart)
- remove negative gearing on investment properties, however still keep deductions for (ie, you can only deduct expenses up to your income on a particular property)
- phase out the reduction of the capital gains tax deduction to make it in line with income tax
- renegotiate the mining tax with the states - all revenue to be shared 50/50 with the states and Fed share to go to 1) paying back debt, 2) sovereign investment fund
- phase in the halving of family tax benefit A and B
- change the tax act so any foreign investment income or capital gains is taxed at the full company rate
- cancel NRAS - replace with a new scheme to just build low income houses 50/50 with the states on a per head of population basis (ie, WA gets about 10%, SA about 7%, etc) - about 50% less houses will be built, but they will all be owned by the states, not by private interests and will be available to rent at lower rates than under NRAS
- renegotiate PBS rates with pharma companies to guarantee the average of the 3 lowest prices of all OECD countries - otherwise you can't get your meds on the list
- dump the increase in the aged care sector and child care workers - why the government is getting involved in that is beyond me, that is what fair work and the award system is for
- cut the government workforce

I wouldn't touch:
- university funding (its our future)
- infrastructure spending (we actually get an asset and increased productivity out of this spending)

What we really need to control:
- the increase in spending on health - it isn't health cost inflation that is killing us, it is the amount of tests and treatments people are doing, we need to find a way to have more cost benefit analysis in health - seems harsh but if it grew by $40b over the past decade - this is unsustainable

Things a lot of people talking about the economy forget:
- mining income will not drop as long as our exchange rate drops as fast (I think gold will sit around 1,500 AUD an ounce, iron ore around $125 a tonne - as though their prices will drop to 1,200 USD/oz and 100 USD/t, our exchange rate will settle back to around 80 cents - provided we do the below)
- contractionary fiscal policy will allow the RBA to lower interest rates, which stimulates house construction, retail and small business sectors - this increase in investment and consumption should balance the reduction in government spending - further this will help our exchange rate drop as people stop putting money in Australia

Just some poorly thought out ideas.
Click to expand...

Dollar dropping adds to cast and inflation as well Oil price goes up in AUD , machinery goes up in AUD, fertiliser goes up in AUD.

If theAUD drops past the sweet spot , We will be WORSE off, and have huge inflation as a by product.
 
WeetBixKid said:
I don't follow politics that closely. Is it naive to think Shorten did this for the good of the party? It seemed a rational enough decision and if the polls are accurate Labours best chance. And in making the move he's really come off as a dick.
Click to expand...

Shorten has put himself in position to be PM if KRudd the super sub wins the election. He will just replace Rudd with himself this time instead of JG.

There is no way Rudd will serve out a term if He actually wins.
 
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