Can someone ring 'hoyney' and ask him if any team has won the flag from 4th and if any team has won it while losing 8 games in a season!!??? They can do a full segment on SEN.
Prediction Do you still have faith?
- Thread starter jmac70
- Start date
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Melbourne have been ordinary over a long period. Going back to part way through last year. Even their recent uptick in form was followed by a drop off.
For me they're the most underpeforming of the top 4. I had them as likely premiers last year and this. Faded badly last season, this year were mostly underwhelming but will hope to finish strong.
So yes, they're definitely over hyped and their issues are glossed over.
I thought I'd take a look at the record of teams who have compiled 66+ premiership points in a season.
The seasons where teams finished more than 2 games clear on top are bolded as I thought these less accurately reflect this year and the gap between Collingwood and the rest of the top 4. This proved no guarantee of a flag however.
I chose 1987 as the starting point as this was the first season interstate teams joined the then VFL competition.
1987 Carlton 72pt Premier
Hawthorn 68pt Grand Final (33pt loss)
1988 Hawthorn 76pt Premier
1989 Hawthorn 76pt Premier
Essendon 68pt Preliminary Final (94pt loss)
1990 Essendon 68pt Grand Final (48pt loss)
1991 West Coast 76pt Grand Final (53pt loss)
1995 Carlton 80pt Premier
1996 Sydney 66pt Grand Final (43pt loss)
1999 Essendon 72pt Preliminary Final (1pt loss)
Kangaroos 68pt Premier
2000 Essendon 84pt Premier
2001 Essendon 68pt Grand Final (26pt loss)
Brisbane 68pt Premier
2002 Port Adelaide 72pt Preliminary Final (56pt loss)
Brisbane 68pt Premier
2003 Port Adelaide 72pt Preliminary Final (44pt loss)
2005 Adelaide 68pt Preliminary Final (16pt loss)
West Coast 68pt Grand Final (4pt loss)
2006 West Coast 68pt Premier
2007 Geelong 72pt Premier
2008 Geelong 84pt Grand Final (26pt loss)
Hawthorn 68pt Premier
2009 St Kilda 80pt Grand Final (12pt loss)
Geelong 72pt Premier
2010 Collingwood 70pt Premier
Geelong 68pt Preliminary Final (41pt loss)
2011 Collingwood 80pt Grand Final (38pt loss)
Geelong 76pt Premier
Hawthorn 72pt Preliminary Final (3pt loss)
West Coast 68pt Preliminary Final (48pt loss)
2012 Hawthorn 68pt Grand Final (10pt loss)
Adelaide 68pt Preliminary Final (5pt loss)
2013 Hawthorn 76pt Premier
Geelong 72pt Preliminary Final (5pt loss)
Fremantle 66pt Grand Final (15pt loss)
2014 Sydney 68pt Grand Final (63pt loss)
Hawthorn 68pt Premier
Geelong 68pt Semi-Final (6pt loss)
2015 Fremantle 68pt Preliminary Final (27pt loss)
West Coast 66pt Grand Final (46pt loss)
2016 Sydney 68pt Grand Final (22pt loss)
Geelong 68pt Preliminary Final (37pt loss)
Hawthorn 68pt Semi-Final (23pt loss)
2018 Richmond 72pt Preliminary Final (39pt loss)
2021 Melbourne 70pt Premier
Port Adelaide 68pt Preliminary Final (71pt loss)
2022 Geelong 72pt Premier
2023 Collingwood 72pt ?
Between 1987-2022 48 sides have finished the season with 16.5 wins and over with only two failing to progress beyond the semi-final stage.
Neither of those two sides finished the H&A season on top however.
Of the 27 seasons represented in these figures on only 9 occasions has the eventual Premier come from those teams who compiled 64pts (potential equivalent of 68pts in 2023) or less.
Of those 9 occasions the side that finished on top of the ladder still made the grand final 5 times.
The lowest amount of points compiled by any eventual Premier was Brisbane in 2003 who finished with 58 (potential equivalent of 62pts in 2023).
If history is any guide this would indicate that the Premier will come from the top 4 again though Melbourne currently on 60pts appear shaky if they can't get over Sydney.
The chances of us not making the Preliminary Final at a minimum appear very slim and I'm backing us to make the Grand Final.
From there may the best team win and may that team be Collingwood.
F*** Champion Data.
The seasons where teams finished more than 2 games clear on top are bolded as I thought these less accurately reflect this year and the gap between Collingwood and the rest of the top 4. This proved no guarantee of a flag however.
I chose 1987 as the starting point as this was the first season interstate teams joined the then VFL competition.
1987 Carlton 72pt Premier
Hawthorn 68pt Grand Final (33pt loss)
1988 Hawthorn 76pt Premier
1989 Hawthorn 76pt Premier
Essendon 68pt Preliminary Final (94pt loss)
1990 Essendon 68pt Grand Final (48pt loss)
1991 West Coast 76pt Grand Final (53pt loss)
1995 Carlton 80pt Premier
1996 Sydney 66pt Grand Final (43pt loss)
1999 Essendon 72pt Preliminary Final (1pt loss)
Kangaroos 68pt Premier
2000 Essendon 84pt Premier
2001 Essendon 68pt Grand Final (26pt loss)
Brisbane 68pt Premier
2002 Port Adelaide 72pt Preliminary Final (56pt loss)
Brisbane 68pt Premier
2003 Port Adelaide 72pt Preliminary Final (44pt loss)
2005 Adelaide 68pt Preliminary Final (16pt loss)
West Coast 68pt Grand Final (4pt loss)
2006 West Coast 68pt Premier
2007 Geelong 72pt Premier
2008 Geelong 84pt Grand Final (26pt loss)
Hawthorn 68pt Premier
2009 St Kilda 80pt Grand Final (12pt loss)
Geelong 72pt Premier
2010 Collingwood 70pt Premier
Geelong 68pt Preliminary Final (41pt loss)
2011 Collingwood 80pt Grand Final (38pt loss)
Geelong 76pt Premier
Hawthorn 72pt Preliminary Final (3pt loss)
West Coast 68pt Preliminary Final (48pt loss)
2012 Hawthorn 68pt Grand Final (10pt loss)
Adelaide 68pt Preliminary Final (5pt loss)
2013 Hawthorn 76pt Premier
Geelong 72pt Preliminary Final (5pt loss)
Fremantle 66pt Grand Final (15pt loss)
2014 Sydney 68pt Grand Final (63pt loss)
Hawthorn 68pt Premier
Geelong 68pt Semi-Final (6pt loss)
2015 Fremantle 68pt Preliminary Final (27pt loss)
West Coast 66pt Grand Final (46pt loss)
2016 Sydney 68pt Grand Final (22pt loss)
Geelong 68pt Preliminary Final (37pt loss)
Hawthorn 68pt Semi-Final (23pt loss)
2018 Richmond 72pt Preliminary Final (39pt loss)
2021 Melbourne 70pt Premier
Port Adelaide 68pt Preliminary Final (71pt loss)
2022 Geelong 72pt Premier
2023 Collingwood 72pt ?
Between 1987-2022 48 sides have finished the season with 16.5 wins and over with only two failing to progress beyond the semi-final stage.
Neither of those two sides finished the H&A season on top however.
Of the 27 seasons represented in these figures on only 9 occasions has the eventual Premier come from those teams who compiled 64pts (potential equivalent of 68pts in 2023) or less.
Of those 9 occasions the side that finished on top of the ladder still made the grand final 5 times.
The lowest amount of points compiled by any eventual Premier was Brisbane in 2003 who finished with 58 (potential equivalent of 62pts in 2023).
If history is any guide this would indicate that the Premier will come from the top 4 again though Melbourne currently on 60pts appear shaky if they can't get over Sydney.
The chances of us not making the Preliminary Final at a minimum appear very slim and I'm backing us to make the Grand Final.
From there may the best team win and may that team be Collingwood.
F*** Champion Data.
Last edited:
The Royal Sampler
Floreat Pica, Bitch!
23 games this season though, so we would be on 68 points by comparison.
- Mar 16, 2022
- 5,104
- 7,370
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
At least we’re going into the finals coming off a big win
I've update my post to include seasons/teams who finished with 66pts and above.
- Oct 25, 2001
- 13,201
- 10,218
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- IOM Gyms, Preston Nth End
I'd guess Pies Brisbane is the likely GF and I like our chances, but it's an even year so the top 4 are live.
Even so, with 2 non Vics and two Vics the first week will almost certainly set up the GF.
5-8 has some fake arse sides. St Kilda Sydney and Carlton will struggle to survive in a real final, Dogs and Giants are legit but i feel they busted their guts just clawing into contention.
Even so, with 2 non Vics and two Vics the first week will almost certainly set up the GF.
5-8 has some fake arse sides. St Kilda Sydney and Carlton will struggle to survive in a real final, Dogs and Giants are legit but i feel they busted their guts just clawing into contention.
Gone Critical
Moderator
- Moderator
- #384
I have the same faith I have had for most of the year. We are as legit a chance as anyone. Given we have finished on top and have the oldest 23 of the contenders there is an argument this needs to be our year.
I would make the top 4 equal favorites at this point and still think a 5-8 team making the GF or even winning the f** as a real chance. Also with such an even year, even considering home ground advantage, the winners of the QF will be vulnerable in the PF as their opponents will be coming off a better prep.
The Gods have shat on us often enough, they should let the stars align this time for a Pie flag.
I would make the top 4 equal favorites at this point and still think a 5-8 team making the GF or even winning the f** as a real chance. Also with such an even year, even considering home ground advantage, the winners of the QF will be vulnerable in the PF as their opponents will be coming off a better prep.
The Gods have shat on us often enough, they should let the stars align this time for a Pie flag.
- Sep 7, 2009
- 5,901
- 5,993
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Real Madrid, Man City, GS Warriors
I still have faith in us with the prefinals bye this week
It's written in the stars. The mighty pies will play the lions and beat them as payback for 2002/03 with their premiership player as the pies coach. Just like leigh matthews coaching Brisbane to a 3 peat who had coached the pies to the 1990 premiership. Go pies.
Top 4 all pretty close.
5-8 no chance of going beyond a prelim this year. Top 4 are miles ahead of the next .
Port are still a live concern btw. Good team.
5-8 no chance of going beyond a prelim this year. Top 4 are miles ahead of the next .
Port are still a live concern btw. Good team.
Cousin of Daicos
Premiership Player and All-Australian
- Sep 17, 2007
- 27,456
- 30,876
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Man. U, Chicago Bulls, Ολυμπιακός
All the way through the season I've wanted to play the Lions in the Grand Final from a pure romanticism point of view
Buckley leaves Brisbane to go to Collingwood to "play in Grand Finals"
Buckley loses two Grand Finals to Brisbane against McRae
Buckley takes over as coach of Collingwood and loses a Grand Final as coach
McRae comes in and replaces Buckley as Collingwood coach and wins a flag...against Brisbane
Would be an incredible full circle moment lol
- Aug 3, 2020
- 18,721
- 31,027
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Boston Celtics, Liverpool
I would also love to break that flog Zorko’s peaheart
Cousin of Daicos
Premiership Player and All-Australian
- Sep 17, 2007
- 27,456
- 30,876
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Man. U, Chicago Bulls, Ολυμπιακός
Not just that either.
It's also the satisfaction of knowing that when they finally played us at (near) full strength (we were quite depleted both times we played them) at a real AFL ground, we beat them.
Please refer to the Sydney game. Same story.
Rain might hamper our game plan?
The way BOM forecasts is weird. There’s only a 25% chance of the rain range being correct.
1mm is currently the median amount predicted, that’s not a lot at all.
1mm is currently the median amount predicted, that’s not a lot at all.
- Aug 3, 2020
- 18,721
- 31,027
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Boston Celtics, Liverpool
If anything would it not hamper Melb's intercepting defence?
- Mar 16, 2015
- 5,618
- 7,968
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
I just feel, this is our time!
The club has set themselves for this next month of football from the moment last season ended in heartbreak.
The club has set themselves for this next month of football from the moment last season ended in heartbreak.
I think we will be a very different proposition on the G with Darcy back. Pendles said it was a bruise free game and again it was a dead rubber for us and a must win for them to secure a home final. They are a dangerous team but I think our best beats them.
Quaymor talking about his aftershaves is making me lose faith.
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