DT Defenders 2010

[anf06]

It's basic fantasy judgement. It's like not picking Ablett in Supercoach, or Riewoldt in forwards, or Cox in rucks in years gone by. I nearly guarantee the winners of the comps all started with these guys in the past.

I don't have time or the energy to mathematically prove anything. The less people starting with Goddard the better from my point of view.

Mathematically you do not. You are wrong.
However, I am starting with Riewoldt because i think that he will go up in value.

Every player in my team, is picked based on their ability to improve, however slight in some cases (Roo)

Team value is the key to success. The higher the team value, the more points you are scoring compared to what you paid for them.

 

[Decipher]

I think arguing strategy is a moot point.
There are different strategies and each year I think you will find people will suceed with many different strategies. In years gone by (2+ years ago) many of the winners ran a no rookie on the field strategy (I remember the top 10 for 2 or 3 years played maybe one rookie at tops). However of recent it has seemingly become gospel that you need to smash in as many rookies as possible.

In the end you have a certain amount of money. Each player is priced based on an average with some adjustments. Rookies are no exception being priced around 30ppg. If you believe a rookie will play and score above 40ppg then they are worthwhile, just the same as picking a 100ppg player scoring over 110ppg. In the end if you pick a team and all 22 players score 10ppg over there pricing you will do well. Rookies do have greater potential to exceed their starting price due to the average being only 30 however they come with significantly greater risk being job security (Lets not beat around the bush here you will find only 3-4 rookies per year top 15 games in their first year), the unknown about their role in the team, TOG in season proper, scoring potential etc. While picking a solid 22 player (ala Masten) you have less risk in that you know his role, his job security, scoring potential and favour this over the increased point potential.

Each person needs to weigh up there desired risk vs upside and make a decision. Personally I think those running a rookie heavy side (above 3 rookies on the field) may find themselves in a spot of bother, especially if many of the midpricers they are likely to have resuccumb to injury, get dropped etc.

 

[Walesy]

Don't understand this.

Why aren't you using the 433,700 figure for the rookies example?

You're right, I was doing a like having cake and eating it too.

Perhaps we could look at Ablett's salary last year as it's closer to the opening mark.

opening: 495k. Dropped to 478k in round 10. Then fell away at the end of the year.

There's no way you are picking him up for less than 3 trades with rookies, so to use that as an arguement as to why a Gun/Rookie strategy is better than a mid-price one is a fallacy.

 

[Walesy]

Mathematically you do not. You are wrong.
However, I am starting with Riewoldt because i think that he will go up in value.

Every player in my team, is picked based on their ability to improve, however slight in some cases (Roo)

Team value is the key to success. The higher the team value, the more points you are scoring compared to what you paid for them.

Facts are meaningless.

You can use facts to prove anything that is even *remotely* true.

Facts shmacts.

 

[Skystyler]

Team value is the key to success. The higher the team value, the more points you are scoring compared to what you paid for them.

well then, I guess I'll get rid of all my premiums and just fill my team with cash cows. Here I was thinking that scoring the most points was the key to success.

 

[Kenny_01]

well then, I guess I'll get rid of all my premiums and just fill my team with cash cows. Here I was thinking that scoring the most points was the key to success.

Anf is correct. Picking only cash cows and you won't use up your salary cap. The trick is to pick as many cash cows as possible while at the same time using as much of your salary cap as possible.

 

[jjcs]

well then, I guess I'll get rid of all my premiums and just fill my team with cash cows. Here I was thinking that scoring the most points was the key to success.

It's a pretty basic concept mate. The only way to score the most points is to find value.

Ignoring discounts and rookies, all players are priced at their 09 averages.

If every player plays to their 09 average, every team will score the same number of points, regardless of the composition of the team.

The only way to increase points scored is to:
-pick rookies (as they're underpriced to what they will score, i.e. find value)
- find players that will increase their 09 averages (i.e. find value) or
- pick discounted players (i.e. find value).

 

[BlazingDon#9]

Anyone keen on Jordan Russell??

Averaged mid 70's thus far and think he can average similar to Mackie whilst being 50k cheaper.

I'm heavily considering Russell, but at the moment I just can't bring myself to pick him. Priced at 324k, spend a little more and you can get Harbrow who is a better and safer option.

 

[Snakes Alive]

I'm heavily considering Russell, but at the moment I just can't bring myself to pick him. Priced at 324k, spend a little more and you can get Harbrow who is a better and safer option.

Yeah I already have Harbrow....Russell is my 6th def. Was thinking he could score similar to R.Shaw & Mackie (who I can both afford) but because he was a fair bit cheaper I currently have him.

I am def not sold on him at the moment though.

 

[PAFCsince1870]

Mathematically you do not. You are wrong.
However, I am starting with Riewoldt because i think that he will go up in value.

Every player in my team, is picked based on their ability to improve, however slight in some cases (Roo)

Team value is the key to success. The higher the team value, the more points you are scoring compared to what you paid for them.

That's all well and good, but most people ideally want 6/7 of the top 10-12 premiums in each position by the end of the season, and 2 or 3 of the top 4 (eg. in backs Goddard, Enright etc.)

As you don't have unlimited trades, that's virtually impossible to do without picking players who are fully priced.

I went with a strict value policy in SuperCoach in 2007 besides Judd as captain. Was in the top 50 for about half the year before I got traded out of it and had to hang onto "value keepers" who just weren't in the very top echelon of their position.

 

[Cruiser23]

Yeah I already have Harbrow....Russell is my 6th def. Was thinking he could score similar to R.Shaw & Mackie (who I can both afford) but because he was a fair bit cheaper I currently have him.

I am def not sold on him at the moment though.

He has potential, almost the go to guy for the Blues down across half back and with Ratts indicating the Blues will play more of a tempo game, it will help. The issue is he is fairly good defensively so he'll be given jobs and this could hinder his upside.

 

[JDWCE]

He has potential, almost the go to guy for the Blues down across half back and with Ratts indicating the Blues will play more of a tempo game, it will help. The issue is he is fairly good defensively so he'll be given jobs and this could hinder his upside.

every time i look at your avatar i get a boner
you should post some more

 

[spence]

He has potential, almost the go to guy for the Blues down across half back and with Ratts indicating the Blues will play more of a tempo game, it will help. The issue is he is fairly good defensively so he'll be given jobs and this could hinder his upside.

I would have thought Scotland was your go to guy.

Looks like he may have upside if you are to alter you game style accorndingly, also finished the year of well.

 

[Dr Awkward]

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't Jordan Russell a complete hack who can't play and always lets you down... aka Jordan McMahon.

 

[Decipher]

That's all well and good, but most people ideally want 6/7 of the top 10-12 premiums in each position by the end of the season, and 2 or 3 of the top 4 (eg. in backs Goddard, Enright etc.)

As you don't have unlimited trades, that's virtually impossible to do without picking players who are fully priced.

I went with a strict value policy in SuperCoach in 2007 besides Judd as captain. Was in the top 50 for about half the year before I got traded out of it and had to hang onto "value keepers" who just weren't in the very top echelon of their position.

I would say your unlikely to have that by year-end.
Im yet to see a team at year-end where each area is composed of the top 15 or even 20 of each area. Hodge is the 19th best defender and mackie is the 20th.

It gets even worse in the midfield, with quality players that you would have been happy with last year (kane Cornes) miles down the list. I think your being veyr unreasonable to try and get a team full of the top 20 in each area. Instead I think it depends on the year and more on a score than being the top X player.

E.g. backs 80+
Midfield 100+
Rucks 75+
Forwards 80+

 

[Cruiser23]

I would have thought Scotland was your go to guy.

Looks like he may have upside if you are to alter you game style accorndingly, also finished the year of well.

I said almost.

He improved his footskill out of sight last year, to the point where Ratts was giving him the kick outs or plonking him in the position where he'd recieve the kick out. He has an all-round DT game, it's just that he's fairly good defensively he may well be getting jobs which may hurt.

 

[PAFCsince1870]

I would say your unlikely to have that by year-end.
Im yet to see a team at year-end where each area is composed of the top 15 or even 20 of each area. Hodge is the 19th best defender and mackie is the 20th.

Yea, I said ideally.

From personal experience, I've been burned by looking for value in every nook and cranny of my team. At some point you need to grab the guns, because you can't trade them all in later.

I'm most likely to go Goddard, Enright, Hargrave and Hodge as my premium backs. Not much value, but I'm confident they'll be up there at season's end, and I can pick and choose the other 3 depending on how the season pans out.

Edit: Mids is a different beast altogether though, and much harder to predict.

 

[BlazingDon#9]

Lisle an option on the pine, with Skipper out surely he'd be the 2nd ruckman giving Renouf a rest???

 

[bulldogsman]

Lisle an option on the pine, with Skipper out surely he'd be the 2nd ruckman giving Renouf a rest???

I would go and ask the Hawk board. Roughead I would've thought would, but probably not in round 1 since Buddy is suspended. Dowler at FF if fit is how I see it.

 

[jonoman89]

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't Jordan Russell a complete hack who can't play and always lets you down... aka Jordan McMahon.

Used to be. Changed his game compeltely since mid-2009 though (thank God).

He is a very interesting pick. He is definitely a best 22 player now as he offers us a lot of versatility around the ground, however i don't see him racking up as many cheap stats as say a Mackie would. He is very good at getting his hands dirty and gut running, two things which don't reward you with points.

Carlton will have a more contested, stop-start game plan this year (as stated by Ratten in his Q&A) so that might be a negative as well when picking a defender from us.

I'll definitely keep an eye on him in the first 3-5 rounds however, if he's posting good scores then chances are he'll keep them up.

 

[Hammers_Saints]

What do people think of this backline, I have been chopping and changing but I am still not really happy with it to be honest.

Enright
Duffield
Gram
Carrazo
Hodge
Greenwood
Hunt

Thoughts?

 

[magpies03]

What do people think of this backline, I have been chopping and changing but I am still not really happy with it to be honest.

Enright
Duffield
Gram
Carrazo
Hodge
Greenwood
Hunt

Thoughts?

nothin wrong with it at all. You really cant judge 1 position tho, its the team as a whole that is important. I would afford a backline of

Goddard
Enright
Duffield
Gram
Hardgrave
Hodge
Shaw
etc etc

Top backline but no good if the rest of my team consists of players under 200k

get what im saying?
nice backline anyhow tho!

 

[samwise]

Why is everyone picking hunt over ladson? I think ladson has better scoring potential.

 

[jjcs]

Yea, I said ideally.

From personal experience, I've been burned by looking for value in every nook and cranny of my team. At some point you need to grab the guns, because you can't trade them all in later.

I just don't understand how you can argue with the proposition that the 30 players you pick in your original squad should be the 30 players you think will produce the highest combined score after 22 rounds. Once you do that, you can worry about trading later.

 

[PAFCsince1870]

I just don't understand how you can argue with the proposition that the 30 players you pick in your original squad should be the 30 players you think will produce the highest combined score after 22 rounds. Once you do that, you can worry about trading later.

I'm not really arguing, its just my personal experience.

Everyone to some extent is picking on value. All those taking Bartel instead of Ablett are a good example. Me included. Hodge is locked into everyone's team because he also represents good value.

But what about those who are fully priced? Goddard, Enright, Hargrave, Swan, Ablett, Montagna, Hayes, Cox, Sandilands, Clark (arguably), Riewoldt, Didak etc?

Are these bad picks? I doubt many will improve their averages.