How will we be placed at the bye?

[Dugg]

All 4 are winnable with north in tassie looming as the hardest
Geelong are started to gel a bit after a poor start so they'll be dangerous especially if Hawkins and Clark fire up
Essendon are unpredictable and I think their best is better than ours but it's at home and who knows if they're on that week
Richmond are capable of very very good football and also absolute tripe

Par should be 2-2 provided in the losses we are competitive and 3-1 would be an outstanding return

Whatever happens we get to learn a lot about our side in the next month and whether the apparent improvement this year is real or just an illusion masked by a soft draw to start the year

I think all four of the teams play good footy inconsistently, hopefully we can continue with this current form and get up for at least 2 wins.

 

[MWPP]

I feel like each of the 4 upcoming games are 40-60 to 60-40 games (ie pretty much 50/50 each). I'd settle for 2 wins (mathematically the most likely result...) , be disappointed with 1/0, would be really happy with 3 (ie only lose to North and most importantly, win v Richmond and at the MCG for once, I'll be at the game!!!!) and can't help hoping for a miracle (4-0), even if losing all 4 is probably slightly more likely than winning all 4.

 

[JackOutback]

Think Essendon and Richmond are winnable, then Geelong at home with North the toughest test. Still leaning towards 2-2, but hoping 3-1. Go 4-0 and I can't be held responsible for what comes next.

 

[garlic munchers]

Beat Geelong and I will genuinely start to kick myself for not taking a bet on the Eagles for top 8 (we are a sneaky chance for 4th at the end of the year with our draw).

 

[DickDunn]

I actually think Essendon is the real danger game. Watson and Heppell just seem to dominate us every time we play. Will be a big test of how far our midfield has come.

 

[Smotie]

I did the ladder predictor and had us finishing fourth and a first up final against freo.
That's without wins against Sydney, hawks, Richmond and north.
So juicy if we steal their thunder with a home qualifying final. Their tears will be delicious.

 

[Keys]

I did the ladder predictor and had us finishing fourth and a first up final against freo.
That's without wins against Sydney, hawks, Richmond and north.
So juicy if we steal their thunder with a home qualifying final. Their tears will be delicious.

Don't think you'll find too many Freo supporters that would be perturbed by playing us in a final - they're convinced (with some justification mind you) that they have our measure and we don't pose a threat to them at all.

We also won't be finishing top 4 because we simply aren't at that level.

 

[Ilkka Sinisalo]

Beat Geelong and I will genuinely start to kick myself for not taking a bet on the Eagles for top 8 (we are a sneaky chance for 4th at the end of the year with our draw).

Eagles are 4th favourite to win a top 4 spot, according to the betting sites. First three are obvious. Then after the Eagles there is GWS, Adelaide, North and Collingwood. All of this has been thrown into disarray because, even after their loss to the Eagles, everyone was heavily favouring Port to be the fourth team. Now they've gone and lost to a bad team (Brisbane) and then a borderline top 8 team (Richmond) at home. I don't think anybody knows what to think about Port right now. You could excuse their losses when they were playing top teams every week to start the year, but now they're into the part of their schedule where they should be fattening up, and they're still losing.

 

[RookiePick]

I actually think Essendon is the real danger game. Watson and Heppell just seem to dominate us every time we play. Will be a big test of how far our midfield has come.

Hacksaw to Heppell. Great success!

 

[Smotie]

Don't think you'll find too many Freo supporters that would be perturbed by playing us in a final - they're convinced (with some justification mind you) that they have our measure and we don't pose a threat to them at all.

We also won't be finishing top 4 because we simply aren't at that level.

Anything can happen between now and then including a drop off of form and injury.
Who knows in a derby and where mindsets come into play.
But I agree they would be strong favorites to win.
Be happy if we finished fourth to sixth and get a home final. Would be massive

 

[Ilkka Sinisalo]

We also won't be finishing top 4 because we simply aren't at that level.

Problem is, who IS at that level? Freo, Sydney, Hawthorn (everyone thinks they'll get healthy and start firing - no reason for them to keep losing, their list is just too good) are a clear top 3. But the rest is just a mess. GWS are massively improved, but they got absolutely blasted by the Eagles just a few weeks ago. Adelaide are pretty good, but their midfield lacks some depth, Jaensch blew out his knee, Sloane is out another month, and Brodie Smith has had two concussions in a week. Collingwood aren't that good in the back line and don't have Beams to help with the midfield lifting any more, plus Cloke is a chronic underachiever. North are schizophrenic, lack an elite tall forward, and their midfield can be pretty ordinary - but they're talented. God only knows what's going on at Port. I still think Essendon have a lot of talent, although their forwards are not all that strong - and they've lost a couple of games they should not have lost. Richmond - well, they're Richmond.

My point is, once you get past those top three, there is a huge pile of clubs with flaws - Eagles included. You can make an argument for any of them to be a top 4 side, but my point is - why not the Eagles? It will probably be one of those years where the 4th placed team has 7 or 8 losses. If the Eagles can just keep beating the teams they should beat, split the games with sides like Essendon, North, Geelong, etc., and then lose to the Sydneys and Hawthorns of the world, they'll be a borderline top 4 side this year.

And then probably get blasted in a qualifying final, lol.

 

[Dugg]

Problem is, who IS at that level? Freo, Sydney, Hawthorn (everyone thinks they'll get healthy and start firing - no reason for them to keep losing, their list is just too good) are a clear top 3. But the rest is just a mess. GWS are massively improved, but they got absolutely blasted by the Eagles just a few weeks ago. Adelaide are pretty good, but their midfield lacks some depth, Jaensch blew out his knee, Sloane is out another month, and Brodie Smith has had two concussions in a week. Collingwood aren't that good in the back line and don't have Beams to help with the midfield lifting any more, plus Cloke is a chronic underachiever. North are schizophrenic, lack an elite tall forward, and their midfield can be pretty ordinary - but they're talented. God only knows what's going on at Port. I still think Essendon have a lot of talent, although their forwards are not all that strong - and they've lost a couple of games they should not have lost. Richmond - well, they're Richmond.

My point is, once you get past those top three, there is a huge pile of clubs with flaws - Eagles included. You can make an argument for any of them to be a top 4 side, but my point is - why not the Eagles? It will probably be one of those years where the 4th placed team has 7 or 8 losses. If the Eagles can just keep beating the teams they should beat, split the games with sides like Essendon, North, Geelong, etc., and then lose to the Sydneys and Hawthorns of the world, they'll be a borderline top 4 side this year.

And then probably get blasted in a qualifying final, lol.

Great post. I would throw Hawthorn into that pile as well. I still think their best is equal, if not better than Freo's however they haven't got things together consistently this year and could easily slide to 5th if they drop another 2 or so games.

 

[Ilkka Sinisalo]

Great post. I would throw Hawthorn into that pile as well. I still think their best is equal, if not better than Freo's however they haven't got things together consistently this year and could easily slide to 5th if they drop another 2 or so games.

I guess it's possible, given that they've dropped a pair of games they probably "should have" won: Essendon and GWS. Plus their draw is brutal this year. Here are the teams they play twice: Port, Sydney, Geelong, Essendon, Carlton. Sydney are close to favourites to win this year, Port were a top 4 side who still had their act together in the first time those teams met, Geelong and Essendon will contend for top 8. Carlton.... well they're a gimme.

I still think Hawthorn makes top 4, but if they drop more than 2 games the rest of the year, they could just miss out.

 

[steve hucka]

Let's keep a lid on it one game at a time, don't jinx us

 

[Evelyn208]

Let's keep a lid on it one game at a time, don't jinx us

I also vote for the calm down. Top 4 talk? I'm not even convinced on 8.

 

[dajesmac]

You'd have to think missing finals this year would have to be labelled as an absolute failure, from where we are at 8 rounds in.

I think we'll finish 5th-7th. There will be one or two dangers games that we will drop and not expect to, I'm thinking Melbourne is going to be a tough proposition.

 

[MIKE85]

Honestly I'd be stoked with 2-2, I reckon the Cats will really test us/beat us, as is my usual pessimistic outlook We have done well against the Roos in tassie in the past, but that mean little. Bombers at home, who knows, and any MCG game against reasonable opposition is tough. If we can get 2 wins I'd be happy.

Question for you all, where did you think we'd be sitting after 8 rounds?? On last years form I had us at 6-2, with losses to Port & Freo, so I don't really think we are miles ahead of where majority would have had us. The surprise is that others around the mark have fallen away, leaving top 4 open for us to possibly sneak into. I can't see it happening TBH but would be happy if it did.

8-4 at the bye would be pretty good I reckon, any more wins would be a massive bonus.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

Honestly I'd be stoked with 2-2, I reckon the Cats will really test us/beat us, as is my usual pessimistic outlook We have done well against the Roos in tassie in the past, but that mean little. Bombers at home, who knows, and any MCG game against reasonable opposition is tough. If we can get 2 wins I'd be happy.
Question for you all, where did you think we'd be sitting after 8 rounds?? On last years form I had us at 6-2, with losses to Port & Freo, so I don't really think we are miles ahead of where majority would have had us. The surprise is that others around the mark have fallen away, leaving top 4 open for us to possibly sneak into. I can't see it happening TBH but would be happy if it did.
8-4 at the bye would be pretty good I reckon, any more wins would be a massive bonus.

Where I thought we would be sitting after 8 games went out the window after we lost Waters, Emac, Brown and Darling. So now our outlook is positive but we have some crunch matches that will highlight where we are at as a club.


Sitting on 6-2, we must be happy especially given the brand of football that we are starting to see on a consistent basis.

If we can get to the bye with a 8-4 record, we are looking good for a final. I expect 12 wins will get a finals berth this and if we can deliver a 6-6 on the back 9, we would even be looking at a home final.

Being effective in September means a top 4 finish. Only a 3-1 record in the next month would justify such talk. With Hawks, North and Port all dropping off the pace in terms of wins, positions 3 to 10 are going to be tight. Pointless getting too far ahead.

IMO, the situation looks very encouraging and the signs of improvement are real. Now we need to grind out some wins against opposition teams that will be there or there abouts in the finals race. Players developing, recent recruits stepping up, players looking like they understand what the coaches are wanting. If we continue to do this in the next 2 months and do not win many games, I will probably still be happy.

 

[MIKE85]

Where I thought we would be sitting after 8 games went out the window after we lost Waters, Emac, Brown and Darling. So now our outlook is positive but we have some crunch matches that will highlight where we are at as a club.
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Sitting on 6-2, we must be happy especially given the brand of football that we are starting to see on a consistent basis.

If we can get to the bye with a 8-4 record, we are looking good for a final. I expect 12 wins will get a finals berth this and if we can deliver a 6-6 on the back 9, we would even be looking at a home final.

Being effective in September means a top 4 finish. Only a 3-1 record in the next month would justify such talk. With Hawks, North and Port all dropping off the pace in terms of wins, positions 3 to 10 are going to be tight. Pointless getting too far ahead.

IMO, the situation looks very encouraging and the signs of improvement are real. Now we need to grind out some wins against opposition teams that will be there or there abouts in the finals race. Players developing, recent recruits stepping up, players looking like they understand what the coaches are wanting. If we continue to do this in the next 2 months and do not win many games, I will probably still be happy.

Fully agree. I've been really happy with the way we've played, apart from the derby, but that was kind of expected (by me anyway).

I wasn't trying to stick the boot into us, just saying that where we are in terms of win/loss, is about where most of us expected us to be. At the start of the season, and probably after losing Brown in that first game, I probably had us losing more than we have, so in that regard, I'm really happy. My pre season optimism had us where we are, but TBH, i hadn't taken our injuries into account when I wrote that original post, maybe I tried to block them from my memory

For me, the most pleasing part has been the performances of a few players who I didn't really know where they were at, and could have easily been pushed out of the side, Wellingham, Hill, & to a lesser extent (because I knew they were always going to play, but have performed above where I thought they would) Cripps & Shep. Lycett has been dissapointing, so has Bennell. Our youngsters have been great & really exciting seeing the Dugg run around and not look out of place.

Your post summed it all up very well, and sometimes it's easy to look at just win/loss, and not look at other positives, but I still struglle with optimism in the face of defeats, and I generally get too emotionally invested in all our games, and always see the negatives.

So long story short, 2-2 from our next few, I'm pretty happy, & on current form we should be able to get there.

 

[MIKE85]

I reckon we finish the year with 14 wins, which should get us between 5-8th, which is pretty good considering our long term injuries.

A finals win would be a good platform for 2016. We are still a young side so plenty of improvement.

 

[MWPP]

Bump! 1 game (and win!) down, 3 to go :S- North (BA), Essendon (Subi) , Richmond (MCG)

Though looking ahead, the real challenge will start after the bye...

Melbourne (TIO), Adelaide (Subi), Collingwood (Etihad), Sydney (Subi), GC (Metrocon), Hawthorn (Subi), Freo (Subi), WB (Subi), Adelaide (AO)

That's a tricky stretch to say the least! A losing streak to match our winning stream is possible (seems more likely than a winning stream anyway)! Even the easiest games in that stretch (Melbourne, Adelaide at home, GC away, WB at home) are all losable (WB have already beaten us), and games like Collingwood away, Sydney, Hawthorn, Adelaide away (even though we won last year - I was there! ) and the derby are likely losses.

I'm hoping to win 5/9 of those, but 3-4/9 is probably more likely.

4 more losses for the year (best case scenario) would see us finish the season with 16 wins (?2nd or 3rd?). 13-14 wins (6-7 more losses) is more likely, but it should still be enough to see us in 7th-8th!!!

 

[FatPizza]

Bump! 1 game (and win!) down, 3 to go :S- North (BA), Essendon (Subi) , Richmond (MCG)

Though looking ahead, the real challenge will start after the bye...

Melbourne (TIO), Adelaide (Subi), Collingwood (Etihad), Sydney (Subi), GC (Metrocon), Hawthorn (Subi), Freo (Subi), WB (Subi), Adelaide (AO)

That's a tricky stretch to say the least! A losing streak to match our winning stream is possible (seems more likely than a winning stream anyway)! Even the easiest games in that stretch (Melbourne, Adelaide at home, GC away, WB at home) are all losable (WB have already beaten us), and games like Collingwood away, Sydney, Hawthorn, Adelaide away (even though we won last year - I was there! ) and the derby are likely losses.

I'm hoping to win 5/9 of those, but 3-4/9 is probably more likely.

4 more losses for the year (best case scenario) would see us finish the season with 16 wins (?2nd or 3rd?). 13-14 wins (6-7 more losses) is more likely, but it should still be enough to see us in 7th-8th!!!

I would like to think that if West Coast in their current form played the Western Bulldogs again at Etihad, we'd win this time.

 

[Aussie Rocker]

I think when making predictions we can put a home game against any team not Sydney, Hawthorn or Fremantle down as a win and with how we are travelling a win against one of them at home is definitely not out of the question.
Richmond look like the toughest of the 3 before the bye, actually think there is a fair chance we'll lose there. A loss before the bye would be bad IMO as we'd have to wait 2 weeks before redemption and the feeling might fade before we play Melbourne. I think Collingwood away should be classified as a likely win more than a likely loss.

So far Adelaide and maybe Richmond look like the only other teams challenging for the 4th spot though, WB are too inconsistent and no other team is really looking good enough (If Collingwood finish top 4, it would be the biggest joke of a qualifying final, GWS would be a bigger joke)

I would like to think that if West Coast in their current form played the Western Bulldogs again at Etihad, we'd win this time.

I really rate WB, reckon we were lucky to be so close to them the first time but I agree, we are a better team now then before, really looking forward to seeing just how much better.

 

[Keys]

I think when making predictions we can put a home game against any team not Sydney, Hawthorn or Fremantle down as a win and with how we are travelling a win against one of them at home is definitely not out of the question.
Richmond look like the toughest of the 3 before the bye, actually think there is a fair chance we'll lose there. A loss before the bye would be bad IMO as we'd have to wait 2 weeks before redemption and the feeling might fade before we play Melbourne. I think Collingwood away should be classified as a likely win more than a likely loss.

So far Adelaide and maybe Richmond look like the only other teams challenging for the 4th spot though, WB are too inconsistent and no other team is really looking good enough (If Collingwood finish top 4, it would be the biggest joke of a qualifying final, GWS would be a bigger joke)

I really rate WB, reckon we were lucky to be so close to them the first time but I agree, we are a better team now then before, really looking forward to seeing just how much better.

You're underestimating Collingwood - that game at etihad will be tough

A look at the current ladder is somewhat sobering - 6 of our 7 wins so far are against teams that are in the bottom 8 with only our win against GWS coming against a side currently in the 8. The bulldogs showed us what can happen if we aren't switched on properly and the Freo game showed us just how far away from being a real challenger we are

I'm super stoked at how we've performed this season but we still have to prove that we can win consistently against teams in that middle bracket

 

[MWPP]

I think when making predictions we can put a home game against any team not Sydney, Hawthorn or Fremantle down as a win and with how we are travelling a win against one of them at home is definitely not out of the question.

I love your optimism , I hope you're right!

Richmond look like the toughest of the 3 before the bye, actually think there is a fair chance we'll lose there. A loss before the bye would be bad IMO as we'd have to wait 2 weeks before redemption and the feeling might fade before we play Melbourne. I think Collingwood away should be classified as a likely win more than a likely loss.

Agree that losing before the bye would be bad. Eeek I really hope we beat Richmond. Besides, I'll be there (and I'm sick of Melbourne losses!). I consider this weekend more of a danger game though (?North rarely lose 3 games in a row!). Collingwood away is an automatic loss in my opinion because it has been years since we beat them over there (we have even lost games from unlosable positions ) . Mind you, I said the same thing about Port Away

So far Adelaide and maybe Richmond look like the only other teams challenging for the 4th spot though, WB are too inconsistent and no other team is really looking good enough (If Collingwood finish top 4, it would be the biggest joke of a qualifying final, GWS would be a bigger joke)

I think I don't rate Richmond as highly as you do, and looking at Collingwood's draw and their form in recent seasons (last year aside- they were ruined by injuries) , it wouldn't surprise me if they finished 4th. I think they would offer more of a fight than GWS

I really rate WB, reckon we were lucky to be so close to them the first time but I agree, we are a better team now then before, really looking forward to seeing just how much better.

I still don't rate WB in terms of them taking our finals or top 4 spot , but I rate them enough to be nervous about the return game! Luck in the form of accurate kicking on our part/inaccurate kicking on theirs kept us in the match last time. It would have been nice to win a match after kicking fewer scoring shots than the opposition, for once!