NFL In-Game Coaching Decisions

[ashley12]

After some somewhat heated discussion's in the gameweek thread about both the SF and ATL coaches decisions at various points of the game, I thought a thread mainly to talk about just various coaching decisions would be relatively cool, plus to allow the game threads to talk about, you know, the games...

This is a common spot that is the bane of a lot of people that follow the mathematics of American football, and I wonder what the general opinions are of some people who while not perhaps focused fully on just the numbers, but nevertheless still fairly smart intelligent fans of the game...

The situation. I will give the "answers" when I get home and my opinion as to why each situation may be best.

The situation

You have just scored a touchdown late in the 4th quarter to be behind by 9 points after completing the touchdown. Do you go for 1 or 2, assuming your kicker is basically elite (rarely if ever misses).

Who goes for 1 and who goes for 2? And what other factors would you take into consideration about making a certain play?

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About worst coaching decisions ever, the worst easily has to be Brad Childress

Vikings coach Brad Childress
For some inexplicable reason, Childress burned a timeout to consider whether to challenge the spot of a catch by Titans wideout Justin Gage. Then, after talking it over with coaches, he threw the challenge flag. The spot of the catch was upheld, and Childress lost a second timeout. Don’t give me that garbage about saving your challenge. Childress should have just thrown the flag in the first place.

Don't think anyone is ever topping that...

 

[hayes]

Re: Coaching decision's thread

I'm a believer in don't go for it unless you have to. Take the 1 and then try to get 2 on the next touchdown because if you go for 2 the first time and miss then no matter what you do on the second TD you can't tie it.

 

[Exe Gesis]

Re: Coaching decision's thread

Thread added to the Thread Directory.
Think it's a worthwhile long-term topic.

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

Re: Coaching Decisions - Discussion

i'd take the 1 point. It's late in the game, you're going to need another possession either way. Missing the 2 pt conv. would virtually end the game. Good thread

 

[gwono]

Re: Coaching decision's thread

I'm a believer in don't go for it unless you have to. Take the 1 and then try to get 2 on the next touchdown because if you go for 2 the first time and miss then no matter what you do on the second TD you can't tie it.

Agree with that completely. Although on the flipside because that's the obvious play, going for 2 might be worth a roll of the dice.

I mean, the prime example of this happened in the opening game of the season and Sean Payton went for the 1 point with 2minutes and 15seconds left.

As for people criticizing Harbaugh, I can't disagree with his decision. Take the points to make it a 2 score game. Romo was just too good down the stretch...

 

[Exe Gesis]

Re: Coaching decision's thread

Just on the Falcons-Eagles game, PFT chipped in, with Smith admitting he erred.

Source

When I questioned some of 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh’s decisions at the end of his team’s loss to the Cowboys on Sunday, I heard from some members of PFT Planet who thought I was only using my 20-20 hindsight after the fact because the 49ers lost. So now I’ll use my 20-20 hindsight after the fact to take a look at a couple of bad late-game decisions made by a winning team.

The Falcons made two decisions in the closing moments of Sunday’s win over the Eagles that could have been disastrous: First, they decided to kneel down three times even though there was too much time left for them to run out the clock. Then, they decided to punt to DeSean Jackson.

On the first mistake, Falcons coach Mike Smith said after the game that he simply miscalculated how much time the Falcons could take off the clock by having Matt Ryan kneel three times, with the Eagles having one timeout.

“That was probably a coaching error,” Smith said. “We need to run the ball. Not probably, it was a coaching error. In terms of the mindset that was not the proper way to do it, but we were able to get through it. We don’t play perfect games, we don’t coach perfect games.”

The impact of Smith’s coaching error was lessened by the coaching error committed by Andy Reid, who wasted a timeout prior to the Eagles’ final fourth-down play, just before the Falcons went into their kneeldown formation. Bottom line, both Smith and Reid need to get better at clock management.

The even bigger surprise, however, came when the Falcons had already knelt down three times and realized they had left some time on the clock. That’s when the Falcons punted to Jackson, the dangerous return man who in a similar situation won a game for the Eagles on the final play against the Giants last year.

“If the Falcons kick him this ball, I’m going to fall out of this press box,” Cris Collinsworth said on NBC just before the Falcons did, in fact, kick Jackson the ball.

Jackson fielded the punt on the run and briefly looked like he might be about to break a long return, although Stephen Nicholas made a great tackle to stop Jackson.

It was stupid of the Falcons to kick it to Jackson, and punter Matt Bosher is apparently the one to blame for that one: Pete Prisco of CBSSports.com reports that Bosher was instructed not to kick it to Jackson, and he did it anyway.

The Falcons, who punted from deep in their own territory, actually would have been better off not punting at all, and instead taking a safety. They should have had Bosher take the long snap on the punt and then turn around and run out of the end zone, taking a few seconds off the clock and then getting a few more yards of field position on the safety kick from the 20-yard line. By that point in the game there wasn’t enough time for the Eagles’ offense to get the ball and drive into field goal range, so the two points the Falcons would have handed the Eagles would have been inconsequential.

As it was, the Falcons had so mismanaged the clock that even after Jackson’s punt return, there was enough time for Eagles quarterback Mike Kafka to throw a Hail Mary into the end zone. That pass was knocked down, however, and the Falcons won despite their own clock mismanagement.

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

Re: Coaching Decisions - Discussion

Wow, stuff up all round by Falcons. With those headphones couldn't one of the other coaches have mentioned to Smith re the kneels?

 

[Exe Gesis]

Re: Coaching Decisions - Discussion

Btw, the Safety game-killing option (which is very good) is something that's often been available for coaches to do for a number of certain games every year, but I can only think of one or two instances of a coach doing it the last couple decades.

 

[entourage]

Re: Coaching Decisions - Discussion

I remember last year, I'm 99% it was the cowboys. Wade Phillips spudded it up big time.

Late in the game they were down, the opponent was on the 1 yd line about to punch it in on 3rd down, they got it, Phillips challenged, unsuccessful, loss of time-out and not more challenges. Then off the kick-off the boys fumbled, replay clearly showed it was down by contact but they had no more challenges left. Phillips fail, think he got sacked soon after IIRC?

 

[Brasher]

Re: Coaching Decisions - Discussion

Btw, the Safety game-killing option (which is very good) is something that's often been available for coaches to do for a number of certain games every year, but I can only think of one or two instances of a coach doing it the last couple decades.

Interesting that I saw two teams (one in college and one in the NFL) exercise this option over the weekend.

 

[Exe Gesis]

Re: Coaching Decisions - Discussion

Typical, soon as I mention it, everyone's doing it.

 

[ashley12]

Re: Coaching Decisions - Discussion

I remember last year, I'm 99% it was the cowboys. Wade Phillips spudded it up big time.

Late in the game they were down, the opponent was on the 1 yd line about to punch it in on 3rd down, they got it, Phillips challenged, unsuccessful, loss of time-out and not more challenges. Then off the kick-off the boys fumbled, replay clearly showed it was down by contact but they had no more challenges left. Phillips fail, think he got sacked soon after IIRC?

Phillips was sacked after the Green Bay debacle where the Cowboys went down I think 45-7? Not sure where that fits with this game.

Funny because Chilly got the arse the next week (or week before) versus the same opposition.

 

[Brasher]

Re: Coaching Decisions - Discussion

Typical, soon as I mention it, everyone's doing it.

I don't think of you as BF's resident soothsayer for nothing.

 

[Brasher]

Re: Coaching Decisions - Discussion

Best coaching decision so far? Shanahan thinking he can win on the big stage with sexy rexy.

 

[ashley12]

Re: Coaching Decisions - Discussion

This week's lulz goes to New York.

I really can't figure out why they went for just the XP after going up 12 vs the Eagles in the 4th quarter. Especially since they correctly went for two after going up 4 the last scoring play before.

12 plays effectively the same as 13, so scoring the XP means nothing compared to getting to a 14 lead and having two converted TD's a tie compared to a loss. Unless he thinks they block a XP some really decent % of the time (never correct thinking) its wrong. That, or he thinks that Philadelphia are going to go FG, FG, FG, FG to tie the game lol... particularly the last FG when behind by 4 lol at what would be very close to the end of the game (against, not a factor).

So dunce hat to you NYG...

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About the going for it when down 9, a lot of people who really care about the maths advocate going for it then, that way if you do miss you have time to rectify the problem, compared to going XP then trying it later in the game. This old school thinking of "making it a one score game" is generally over-rated, because again, if you do miss the first time, you have time to rectify rather then leaving it to the last play, potentially missing (you score on 2pt conversions around 42% of the time depending on teams iirc) and then having used up all that time on the basis of a "one score game"

Its somewhat close, but still, in close contests it can be small factors that decide games.

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Another more interesting philosophy is what to do when you score a touchdown to go down 8, with the afters to come. (assuming for this argument we know you are going to score two TD's and the opposition wont score. Even if you do allow for the opposition scoring, it affects both situations the same, since any combo of two TD's+[either 14, 15, or 16] loses to an opposition FG, with 12 and 13 already behind)

.Now, the majority of people choose to go the "safe" route of XP, score again, XP for over time where p(winning match) is 50% at the start of OT. That if fair enough, and generally considered standard.

However, if you go for two instead, you instead get this type of match equity for the times you do score two TD's against nothing. Lets assume that the % time you score the 2pts is 45%. (wiki says it is between 40-55%, obviously this is QB and team dependent). Lets also assume that the XP % is 100% (obviously an over-estimate but for the sake of the argument it makes it easier).

% 2pt is good + XP on next TD = (.45x1) = 45% WIN GAME
% 2pt is bad + second 2pt is good = (.55x.45) = 24.75% OT = 12.875% win in OT
% 2pt fails both times = (.55x.55) = 30.25% LOSS

So % win the game = 45% in normal time + 12.875% of the time you go to OT and win = 57.875% of the time.

This is compared to 50% of the time when you go to OT after going XP and XP.

Breakeven is at roughly 38% chance you make the 2pt play on average. This breakeven mark goes down the higher % time you miss the XP, since that guarantee of OT goes down in the normal situation of XP+XP.

You win the game nearly 8% of the time more often using this way but coaches never do. Why? Because coaches like there well paid job and fans, pundits and even GM's and owners don't necessarily understand the maths. A lot of the time a coach would rather maximise his chance of keeping his job rather then maximise win equity so thats why they often take the conversative route.

Thoughts?

 

[ashley12]

Re: Coaching Decisions - Discussion

Best coaching decision so far? Shanahan thinking he can win on the big stage with sexy rexy.

Washington's play on the 3rd and 21 was lol bad (they sent an 8 man blitz on Romo on the DAL 20ish with only a few minutes left). They subsequently allowed Romo to find Bryant 1-1 and then gave away a facemask, getting Dallas in FG range and getting Dallas the win. This in a game where Dallas made numerous mistakes in making the snap (why they were 3rd and 21 to start with) and running routes.

Rex overall hasn't been that bad compared to how terrible McNabb has been for the Vikings. And I am not saying that because of 3 lolbad Vikings chokes this season, but overall. The skins have a lot more issues then just QB at the moment.

 

[Exe Gesis]

Re: Coaching Decisions - Discussion

Another bad decision was Rex Ryan going for it on 4th and goal, down by 10. Should of kicked the FG, then gone for the onside-kick, with 50 secs in the game left. Instead, Sanchez was down by contact, and the Raiders kneeled it out.

 

[ashley12]

Re: Coaching Decisions - Discussion

Another bad decision was Rex Ryan going for it on 4th and goal, down by 10. Should of kicked the FG, then gone for the onside-kick, with 50 secs in the game left. Instead, Sanchez was down by contact, and the Raiders kneeled it out.

How many timeouts did the Jets have?

I think this is kind of close, but I see where you are coming from.

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

Re: Coaching Decisions - Discussion

% 2pt is good + XP on next TD = (.45x1) = 45% WIN GAME
% 2pt is bad + second 2pt is good = (.55x.45) = 24.75% OT = 12.875% win in OT
% 2pt fails both times = (.55x.55) = 30.25% LOSS

So % win the game = 45% in normal time + 12.875% of the time you go to OT and win = 57.875% of the time.

This is compared to 50% of the time when you go to OT after going XP and XP.

Just trying to clarify. 8 down , u go for 2 (45%) say you miss.
Then you have to go for 2 on next TD (45%) therfore .45x.45 = .20 or 20%???

Could you explain the 12.875% ?

 

[Exe Gesis]

Re: Coaching Decisions - Discussion

They had no timeouts left.
Thing is, if you dont get the TD on the fourth down, that's it, all over.
You kick the FG, you still have a shot at getting the onside-kick, and if you get that, you have 50 secs to move the ball downfield thru sideline passes and spikes into a last second pass play from the redzone.
Sure, if you get the TD first, you still have to try to get the onside-kick too.
But it's the same either way, whether you kick the FG or get the TD first, you still have the 'unlikelihood' of recovering the onside-kick.
But you definitely have an onside-kick chance if you kick the FG first.

 

[Dagless]

Re: Coaching Decisions - Discussion

It was still a two TD game either way Ash.


With Vick out, the game had been decided.

 

[ashley12]

Re: Coaching Decisions - Discussion

Just trying to clarify. 8 down , u go for 2 (45%) say you miss.
Then you have to go for 2 on next TD (45%) therfore .45x.45 = .20 or 20%???

Could you explain the 12.875% ?

We miss the 2pt conversion the first time around 55% of the time. We make it when we score our second TD 45% of the time.

(.55 x 0.45) = 24.75% of the time we score 14pts.

However, 14 points only gets us to OT. We win in OT 50% of the time

24.75% x .5 = 12.375% (sorry, made a mistake, its 12.375% rather then 12.875%.

Basically, when we go XP followed by XP, 100% of the time we get to overtime. We only win overtime 50% of the time, so overall this way we will win the game 50% of the time over a large sample.

When we go the other way (two point conversion first) we win 45% of the time when we make the 2pt conversion, then get the XP to lead by one. We also win 12.375% of the time when we miss the first 2PT, make the second 2PT, and win in overtime, meaning overall

p(win)= .45 + (.2475/2)
p(win)= .45 + (.12375)
p(win)= .57375 or 57.375% compared to 50%

Hope that helps...

 

[ashley12]

Re: Coaching Decisions - Discussion

It was still a two TD game either way Ash.


With Vick out, the game had been decided.

No its not.

If the Eagles score 2TD's, they will lead by 1 when you go XP instead of 2PT. This is compared to leading by 0 when you go 2PT and make it then they go 2TD's.

By going XP, you give up the 50% equity you have in OT, since you get no OT.

Basically, if we assume the Eagles get two TD's maybe 5% of the time, your match win equity goes from 97.5% to 95%. Sure, it doesnt sound like much, but they in fact doubled their chance of winning the match when you guys kicked the XP.

Are you saying you would have happily laid me 10000:1 on the Eagles at that point of time. After all, in your opinion they are drawing dead and can't win?

 

[ashley12]

Re: Coaching Decisions - Discussion

They had no timeouts left.
Thing is, if you dont get the TD on the fourth down, that's it, all over.
You kick the FG, you still have a shot at getting the onside-kick, and if you get that, you have 50 secs to move the ball downfield thru sideline passes and spikes into a last second pass play from the redzone.
Sure, if you get the TD first, you still have to try to get the onside-kick too.
But it's the same either way, whether you kick the FG or get the TD first, you still have the 'unlikelihood' of recovering the onside-kick.
But you definitely have an onside-kick chance if you kick the FG first.

Overall I guess it comes down to whether

p(make chip FG)x(recover OKick)x(make touchdown from ~OAK 45)

is larger or smaller then

p(make TD from goalmouth)x(recover Okick)x(make FG from around OAK45)

Also, by going TD first, they also give themselves the chance of winning by going TD then another TD given the chance (say the RB makes a play or whatever while trying to get within FG range.

I think it is super close either way, and really comes down to career numbers of the Jets kicker from distance and Sanchez from the redzone conversions.

While you are right in that if you miss the TD you are toast, it is also easier to score 3 from the recovery then a TD...

 

[Bulldog Brent]

Anyone see the ATL-SEA finish? Should Carroll have had gone for it at 3rd & 8 rather than try a game winning 61yd FG? I just felt the odds of getting 8yds and then a within-range FG was better than a near-impossible 61yd FG.