NFL 2023 NFC Championship Game - Detroit at San Francisco

[balmainforever]

MONDAY, JANUARY 29 @ 10:30AM (LIVE ON ESPN/KAYO AND 7MATE)
(3)Detroit at (1) San Francisco

NB: VIC, NSW, TAS times
less 30 mins SA
less 1 hour Qld
less 1.5 hours NT
less 3 hours WA

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Seems obvious but scoreboard pressure is a real thing. At 24-10 you take the 3 pts and it’s a three possession game again. Relieves some of the pressure. Now the Aiyuk catch let’s say happens anyway after the FG ..it’s 27-17 and it doesn’t feel as panicky as 24-17. It’s a small thing maybe but it’s got to be impact momentum/ mentality ..whatever you want to call it.

Thats assuming Badgely makes it from 45+ outdoors, he has a long history of missing, thats why hes bounced around from team to team. The call was fine. Just make an easy catch.

 

[aussiedude]

Speaking of trades, I was going to post had the Lions won if there had ever been a more mutually beneficial trade in recent history than the Goff/Stafford trade.

Antonio Brown. Steelers got rid of a locker room cancer. Raiders got some attention and sell tickets for the move until Brown decided to give himself frostbite on his feet in the preseason and then it went downhill fast.

Or Jets and Miami Pennington trade. [not that Favre worked out well on field, or in the massage rooms]

 

[aussiedude]

I wonder if the 49ers try and team up the Bosas next year.

We could then say we have over 60% of our salary cap tied up in one player group.

I would trade Bosa if i was the Chargers. But feel they will have to sell low given the contract

 

[Brasher]

I would trade Bosa if i was the Chargers. But feel they will have to sell low given the contract

There has been talk of 49ers interest.

 

[aussiedude]

Bosa never really worked out at the Chargers. even when there was another player to take double teams when Ingram was there

 

[AJ_2000]

Did analytics say the Lions should have gone for it on those fourth-down tries? ESPN's fourth-down decision data suggests they were very slightly situations in which the Lions would have been better off going for it. The first decision in the third quarter favored going for it by 0.3%. The second, down three points in the fourth quarter, favored going for it by 0.2%.

Most people who follow analytics closely around the NFL would consider those to be toss-ups before considering the other factors that come into play.

Barnwell: The truth behind Detroit's disastrous second half and Baltimore's botched Super Bowl chance

The Lions surrendered a 17-point second-half lead, while the vaunted Ravens scored just 10 points. Here's how the 49ers and Chiefs won.

www.espn.com

Personally I'd have attempted the FG. Keeping it a 3 score game, returning the deficit back to three same margin as half time, and having already chewed up 8 minutes of the 3rd quarter - shortening the game.

Failing to convert on the 4th down just changed momentum massively, and from there the scores were tied within 5 minutes.

 

[Exe Gesis]

Did analytics say the Lions should have gone for it on those fourth-down tries? ESPN's fourth-down decision data suggests they were very slightly situations in which the Lions would have been better off going for it. The first decision in the third quarter favored going for it by 0.3%. The second, down three points in the fourth quarter, favored going for it by 0.2%.

Most people who follow analytics closely around the NFL would consider those to be toss-ups before considering the other factors that come into play.

Barnwell: The truth behind Detroit's disastrous second half and Baltimore's botched Super Bowl chance

The Lions surrendered a 17-point second-half lead, while the vaunted Ravens scored just 10 points. Here's how the 49ers and Chiefs won.

www.espn.com

Personally I'd have attempted the FG. Keeping it a 3 score game, returning the deficit back to three same margin as half time, and having already chewed up 8 minutes of the 3rd quarter - shortening the game.

Failing to convert on the 4th down just changed momentum massively, and from there the scores were tied within 5 minutes.

See the video I posted a page before? Analytics showed it would be better to kick the FG

 

[aussiedude]

The problem with analytics is that they dont tell the whole story. they dont take momentum into account.

gut instinct over analytics every day for me. my gut said take the points on both, but i also would of gone for it 4th and goal just before the half for what felt like it could of been a killshot. sure getting 3 there is fine but it let the 9ers feel they got a stop and would they of gained any extra momentum going into the 2nd half with a 4th down stop vs holding for 3.

 

[Brasher]

The problem with analytics is that they dont tell the whole story. they dont take momentum into account.

gut instinct over analytics every day for me. my gut said take the points on both, but i also would of gone for it 4th and goal just before the half for what felt like it could of been a killshot. sure getting 3 there is fine but it let the 9ers feel they got a stop and would they of gained any extra momentum going into the 2nd half with a 4th down stop vs holding for 3.

In those situations you have to think what would the opposition least want me to do. As a 49er fan going for it before the half, had they converted felt like it would have been lights out. Same with both of the 4th down tries in the second half, felt the 49ers couldn't afford to give up any points 3 or 7.

In my professional life, analytics and now Generative AI is a big part of what I do and there are 2 factors that always rear their head 1) analytics is based on what has happened in the past and gives you no guarantees of what will happen next and 2) doesn't matter how good the data and analytics, it still takes a human to interpret and make decisions based on this data.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Too many people just assuming Badgely makes the kick like the Lions were 3 yards out and it was a given. Packers wonky kicker missed an easy field goal that "changed momentum" last week. It works both ways.

 

[aussiedude]

If he missed the FG they would of still had 0. but the momentum boost from a 4th down stop is bigger then a missed FG

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Ive never been that heavily into go for everything on 4th down, im not one of those nutters, using rational thought about each situation though rather than being results based is the way to go. Hes done worse this season. The insistence on going for 2 against the Cowboys from the 7 was ******* terrible. The call to throw on 3rd down vs the Rams to close the game two weeks ago was out there also, but because they made that play I havent heard anyone say it was dumb. I dont see yesterday as rushes of blood to the head bad calls.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

If he missed the FG they would of still had 0. but the momentum boost from a 4th down stop is bigger then a missed FG

you really think that? They didnt stop anything, it was a dropped catch. No different to a missed FG.

 

[aussiedude]

We all called it at the time, and the same at times over the season. Campbell is aggressive but in a reckless and dumb way that hurts the team. Its why ive started calling him a Brandon Staley type.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Bills settling for the FG vs the Chiefs last week, how did that work out?

 

[aussiedude]

you really think that? They didnt stop anything, it was a dropped catch. No different to a missed FG.

Mate defenders celebrate throws into the stands on the opening drive like it was a game winning PBU. that energy of a 4th down drop or whatever spreads and it sinks the other team.

The Lions whole playcalling in the 2nd half was questionable at best.

 

[aussiedude]

Bills settling for the FG vs the Chiefs last week, how did that work out?

a missed FG under 2 mins is a bit different. but I didnt like it either. They were playing for the FG and OT. They should of been playing for the win

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Mate defenders celebrate throws into the stands on the opening drive like it was a game winning PBU. that energy of a 4th down drop or whatever spreads and it sinks the other team.

The Lions whole playcalling in the 2nd half was questionable at best.

Reynolds dropped two easy catches on 4th and 3rd down, Gibbs lost fumble, Williams dropped a TD. The players were far more of an issue in the second half than the play calling.

 

[aussiedude]

The Lions started playing scared when things went against them. They deserved to lose with how they played the 2nd half.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

They should of been playing for the win

Yeah, and thats why I dont have a massive issue with the calls yesterday. Phil makes an excellent point about public perception here at 7:20 (as it relates to PATs and 2 point attempts but can be used for spots like yesterday too)

 

[Brasher]

Reynolds dropped two easy catches on 4th and 3rd down, Gibbs lost fumble, Williams dropped a TD. The players were far more of an issue in the second half than the play calling.

These didn't help but coaching contributed too....on the other side of the ball it was the polar opposition. Individual players and the coaching all stepped up.

Aiyuk, Debbo, Jennings, Kittle, Juss, CMC, Purdy even Mitchell all made significant individual plays and the defense tightened up as well.

 

[aussiedude]

My issue with the 4th down calls in the 2nd half is that you need to stop the bleeding get some points back on the board and reset. With how the game was going 3 points would of helped. Sure you always want a drive to end in 7.

Who knows in a parallel universe they make a 4th down conversion and then fumble the next play or whatever.

 

[Brasher]

My issue with the 4th down calls in the 2nd half is that you need to stop the bleeding get some points back on the board and reset. With how the game was going 3 points would of helped. Sure you always want a drive to end in 7.

Who knows in a parallel universe they make a 4th down conversion and then fumble the next play or whatever.

Yep imagine the outcome had the 49ers gone for it and failed on the opening drive of the 3rd quarter. They needed 17 at least to get back in the game 3 points was always going to help.

 

[flamethrower]

Detroit were playing in the NFC Championship game because of their aggressive play calls on 4th down. The don't even make it this far without Campbell as HC.

When faced with a 4th and short outside the 30 yard line, going for the 1st down has a better chance than relying on a headcase kicker to hit from 50 yards. (Unless it is a kick to win the game in the last few seconds). That equation changes slightly towards kicking a FG IF you have one of the few ultra-reliable FG kickers in the NFL

I think they should have gone for it on 4th down at the end of the 1st half as well.

What really cost the Lions a trip to Vegas were all the dropped catches in the 2nd half after the Niners had woken up during the long break and were scoring at will.

And running the ball on 3rd and goal with 1.05 remaining didn't help either - cost the Lions a vital time out - throw the ball and score a TD or stop the clock. 4th down rinse and repeat. Need to keep all 3 TOs in case you score, fail with an onside kick, and need to stop SF to get the ball back with 30 seconds remaining and a chance of a long FG to force OT.

By wasting that TO once the onside kick failed the game was over.

 

[AJ_2000]

a missed FG under 2 mins is a bit different. but I didnt like it either. They were playing for the FG and OT. They should of been playing for the win

The long throws down field earlier told me they were playing for the win.... But also to give Mahommes and Co heaps of clock time to get a game winning drive.

I think they just found themselves where they were and settled