Analysis Season 2024 - Statistics and Analytics Thread

[Tom14]

The issue is if we want top 4, we can probably only afford maybe 3 more losses for the entire season. It is going to be a tough ask regardless of the form we are in. We will basically need to go on a 7 or 8 game streak at some stage.

Yeah in 2021 we went on a 7 game win streak after we started 1-3, and even then it took the dogs stumbling horribly for us to pip them on the percentage.

We did manage to lose a bunch of games we shouldn't have that year (Tigers and Saints at Metripong, Hawks in Tassie) but basically now we can't afford a single slip up and we need to pick off tough away games. Beating the Dees at the MCG is a good start but it might come down to getting a result v Collingwood in the final round.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Last Thursday saw a disappointing reversion to what has become our mean in the last year and a bit

 

[Grasshopper17]

 

[buttermuffs]

Have to wonder whether our supposed fitness issues and good five year stretch for injuries (especially soft tissue) are due to the same fitness program.

If you train more you can build fitness but you also risk a higher chance of injuries due to less rest. If you rest more to ensure adequate recovery you can avoid more injuries but you also have subpar fitness.

I think there’s merit for every position but training too much for a fitness advantage when it could lead to injuries is probably a tad shoddy. You can do it and hope that you have the depth to cover and none of your key players get hurt.

You can also do less and bank on your teams talent to get the job done in 80% of the game time. Less injuries ensures that you have the most talented crop of footballers out there at all time instead of missing 2-3 best 22 players for most games during the season.

Unfortunately though you could still get s**t luck and have key players tear their ACL anyway and then it doesn’t really matter how much you did to protect their hamstrings.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Unfortunately though you could still get s**t luck and have key players tear their ACL anyway and then it doesn’t really matter how much you did to protect their hamstrings.

Yep this 100%. All else being equal I'd rather support a team missing 7 of its best players, being 5 goals down at the last change and know they're still a red hot chance, than what we have regularly experienced over the last couple of years.

For starters I've always been a firm believer that where the Victorian clubs have the advantage of less travel, hosting the Grand Final etc etc, we need to leverage our primary advantage, being our weather. Our preseason conditions are arguably the most inhospitable in the league, and we should be making the most of this, not using it as an excuse. Right now we "take the lift".

If it were up to me we would train in the middle of the day rather than early in the morning which we seem to now, and there would be more of a running program. If that affected our skill level and our ability to execute complex game plans, because we spent less time on these things in preseason, I'd be willing to live with that as a trade-off. Because anyway, right now it is rare that we're implementing any sort of game plan to the necessary standard either in red time or in last quarters.

(Our off season would consist of a greater focus on weights and strength training, but that part of the conversation is for another thread)

Ultimately, if you're right and we train less with the specific intention to have less injuries, it's backfiring pretty spectacularly at the moment. So why not simply train harder and cope with injuries as they come? If nothing else, it would give greater opportunity to those fringe players who perhaps have deserved more AFL game time over the last 4 or 5 years, improving our depth which in a long season must always be an advantage.

The other thing too about being a team who finishes strongly is that no matter how far the other team gets in front, you're always in their heads. Our dynasty team was exactly like this - there were several games between 2000 and 2005 they had no right to win but very nearly pinched at the death. Collingwood over the last couple of years are a perfect example of this.

Whereas right now, teams always know they are a chance against us. Melbourne have made a habit of it, Geelong steamrolled us on Saturday night. Melbourne 2022 experienced this as well with teams almost queueing up to run over the top of them in the back half of that year. It's a sh!t position to be in and an awful feeling as a supporter.

 

[Tom14]

Bad kicking is bad football.

 

[Elixuh]

Bad kicking is bad football.

View attachment 1968901

God that’s depressing viewing. It also seems a lot of things are in our favour but we are finding ways to lose every week.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Bad kicking is bad football.

View attachment 1968901

Reviewing this quickly it looks like we are 17th on a net combined basis (attack - defence). Ahead of only Hawthorn.

 

[BigCat2]

Reviewing this quickly it looks like we are 17th on a net combined basis (attack - defence). Ahead of only Hawthorn.

These things should regress towards mean over time right? So we're not playing as badly as our 2-4 record suggests.

 

[KissKiss]

These things should regress towards mean over time right? So we're not playing as badly as our 2-4 record suggests.

Maybe especially on the opposition differential. But I'd be curious about our offensive performance over a few years. I suspect we have a long term trend over being poor performers at expected score. We score a lot because we have generated a lot of shots. But we have several players that appear to be poor shots at goal

 

[Grasshopper17]

Reckon this will be right up Section 5's alley

AFL List Depth and Form Analysis

 

[Grasshopper17]

These things should regress towards mean over time right? So we're not playing as badly as our 2-4 record suggests.

I think the defensive column probably should regress towards the mean. UNLESS we are putting less pressure on the opposition taking its shots and this is not being factored into expected scores (altho I do think pressure is factored into Champion Data's expected score stats).

As for the attacking column? Well, you've seen our kicking for goal...

 

[JasRulz63]

Bad kicking is bad football.

View attachment 1968901

Combine this with the fact we're first for total inside 50s but last for goal efficiency (goals per inside 50).

 

[Grasshopper17]

Combine this with the fact we're first for total inside 50s but last for goal efficiency (goals per inside 50).

Yep, and after we had 9 shots from 14 entries (64%) to quarter time on Saturday night, we managed just 8 more from our next 37 entries (22%) across the final 3 quarters.

Yes it was wet but this is simply a continuation of the connection issues going inside 50 we have had basically since the 10 minute mark of the 2nd quarter in opening round.

 

[Nathan Barley]

As far as % there isn't much difference between most of the teams

 

[Elixuh]

View attachment 1969067
View attachment 1969066

As far as % there isn't much difference between most of the teams

Yeah I don’t think it has ever felt like we are significantly worse than other teams in red time. But the feeling has always been that relative to how good we have been, we concede some dumb / lazy goals late.

The slowing the ball down to conserve energy is an interesting proposition if the stats show we come out at the start of quarters much better than other teams. Could be a legitimate strategy.

 

[buttermuffs]

Yeah I don’t think it has ever felt like we are significantly worse than other teams in red time. But the feeling has always been that relative to how good we have been, we concede some dumb / lazy goals late.

The slowing the ball down to conserve energy is an interesting proposition if the stats show we come out at the start of quarters much better than other teams. Could be a legitimate strategy.

It’d be more complete if we saw how many point we have scored and the percentage of scores that makes up as well. You could be the best team at preventing red time scores but wouldn’t matter if the opposition outscores you and vice versa.

 

[Grasshopper17]

It’d be more complete if we saw how many point we have scored and the percentage of scores that makes up as well. You could be the best team at preventing red time scores but wouldn’t matter if the opposition outscores you and vice versa.

Exactly. This is what I have calculated in my red time stats above, where we are 18th by a clear margin. By the way, time on (which channel 7 has shown) is different to red time. Red time is the final 5 minutes of a quarter according to the countdown clock.

As an aside this is an absolute pain to review each week but I am getting good at fast forwarding through the Fox replays to find the right spots where there are 5 minutes to go in each quarter.

Hopefully it is only a matter of time before the AFL starts recording stats based on the countdown clock (as is the case in American sports) instead of the count up clock. The count up clock is completely irrelevant these days apart from the bizarre fact that it is still shown on scoreboards at the venues.

 

[Tom14]

God that’s depressing viewing. It also seems a lot of things are in our favour but we are finding ways to lose every week.

Simply put, the vibes are bad.

I think we are pretty much at the stage of having to hire a witch doctor to dispel a curse on the team, as John Safran did for the Socceroos.

Is it a coincidence that they started making world cups shortly afterwards? I think not!

 

[Tom14]

Also just noticed the dees are doing the same thing as the last few years of being super accurate in the first 6 weeks before falling off a cliff later. Very funny.

 

[Elixuh]

Simply put, the vibes are bad.

I think we are pretty much at the stage of having to hire a witch doctor to dispel a curse on the team, as John Safran did for the Socceroos.

Is it a coincidence that they started making world cups shortly afterwards? I think not!

I have been repeating this chant 10 times before every game for years.

 

[Section 5]

With the wet conditions i wanted to have a look at the total around the ground stoppages for the 6 games.
This may tell us if the game was an open one or as in the wet game a stoppage slog.
Far too many stoppages in the modern AFL game which makes rucks and misfield more important players.
In my opinion the sooner they bring in last touch to reduce this number the better.

Around ground stoppages = Total hit outs less total goals + 1 bounce start of each quarter.

Stats	Blues	Dockers	Pies	Kangaroos	Demons	Cats
+Total hit outs	57	84	93	84	85	100
-Total goals + 1 for each Qtr.	29	28	28	26	24	17
=Around ground stoppages	28	56	65	58	61	83

 

[Section 5]

Reckon this will be right up Section 5's alley

AFL List Depth and Form Analysis

Just got around to checking this thread
I am probably in the minority that has notifications turned off.
Thanks for the site link, i have added it to my bookmarks.
One thing i do like is they are only using the last 10 games for the AFL player ratings and defensive involvements.
This will be a much better guide to 2024 form from round 9 onwards.
For example, Zorko is playing very well in that HB role (hope he stays there).
However, i doubt his defensive involvements are that high being 21.4 in the top well above average category.