Analysis Season 2023 - Statistics and Analytics Thread

[Tom14]

Fantastic grand final preview from the ABC guys:

A mobile defence and the bogeymen from Brisbane: How this grand final will be won and lost

Brisbane has been Collingwood's bogey team, winning its last six against the Magpies. But grand final day, at the Lions' bogey ground the MCG, with 100,000 supporters heavily skewed towards the black and white, might be a different prospect.

www.abc.net.au

For the past two years, Collingwood has confounded most opponents with its attacking and direct brand of footy, but Brisbane might have the clearest blueprint to beat the Pies of any side in the competition.

They currently hold a six-game winning streak against Collingwood, including two convincing victories this year.

The bedrock of Brisbane's game is built on attacking teams on the counter. No team scores more heavily from intercepts than the Lions and it starts up forward.

Take you apart​

Brisbane also has one of the most dangerous and well-balanced attacks in the league.

The Lions have long been one of the most efficient teams going inside 50, finishing 4th for points per inside 50.

The Lions have a defined group of focal tall and small forwards, and they share the load within their group.

Each week the roles that they play vary, between focal points and decoys. Fagan looks less at the individual contributions of each of his forwards, but more at how it contributes to the bigger picture. It makes them hard to plan to beat, and almost impossible to stop.

"When it comes to finals, it's a little easier for teams to pick you off if you're predictable going inside 50," Fagan told the ABC earlier this year.

"So the fact that we've got a good mix of targets is important to us. We've got to keep going with that — we don't want to become reliant on any one player."

Building in the middle​

All finals losses hurt, but blowouts sometimes show the signs of bigger issues at play.

In the back half of last season, Brisbane's talented midfield struggled to find the right balance between attack and defence, ball winners and line breakers.

This year, their ability to win clearances and limit opposition damage has improved significantly.

The recruitment of one of the league's better two-way midfielders in Josh Dunkley

5

Josh Dunkley

Age

27

Ht

191cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.8

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

11.3

5star

M

4.3

4star

T

5.8

5star

CL

3.2

5star

D

20.7

5star

K

7.0

3star

HB

13.7

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

5.3

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

14.2

4star

K

7.2

3star

HB

7.0

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

4.0

5star

CL

1.4

4star

has helped their flexibility.

Father-son draftees Jaspa Fletcher and Will Ashcroft have helped their burst to the outside. This has allowed their other remaining pieces, like recently minted Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale

9

Lachie Neale

Age

30

Ht

178cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.0

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

15.5

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.7

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

28.3

5star

K

13.9

5star

HB

14.4

5star

M

4.6

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

7.4

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

and Hugh McCluggage

6

Hugh Mccluggage

Age

26

Ht

185cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.3

5star

K

11.4

4star

HB

7.9

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.0

5star

CL

2.2

4star

D

19.0

4star

K

12.0

5star

HB

7.0

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

2.0

4star

D

13.2

4star

K

7.8

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.8

4star

CL

0.6

3star

, to settle into clearer roles suited to their strengths.

The last challenge​

Only the minor premiers stand in the way of Brisbane's fourth flag.

They've done it before against this side. If the Lions can execute their game plan, they know they can beat Collingwood.

Some question the ability of the Lions to win at the MCG, given their recent poor record at the ground.

In reality, the MCG on grand final day is a completely different task than any other day of the year. The last time the Lions played in front of a crowd of more than 90,000 was their 2002 Grand Final win over the Pies.

A new footballing empire might be rising in the north again, and maybe it'll be for good this time.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Some sleepy Sunday stats.

I wanted to have a look at long kicks down the line, from slow plays. I think it's a good measure for things like defensive intent, work rate in attack etc. I also don't think it is officially published, and if it is, I've never seen any of the numbers behind it.

I started with the Preliminary Final and hopefully I can bring myself to do the Grand Final because I think that will prove very illuminating. The whole process made me feel a bit for the assistant coaches who (I presume) have to go through and code up all the vision for their players. Even collecting this data, about essentially one facet of the game, was a bit of a procedure.

Obviously all of us probably have a good idea of what is a "long kick down the line". But when you go through this process you need a little bit more rigour around your definition, to account for grey areas which might (and did!) arise. So I guess my definition includes the following:

• A free kick is awarded or a mark is taken.
• The player prioritises gaining territory almost completely, over the goal of (a) maintaining possession or (b) scoring. (b) is important because it means I rule out kicks from 50-60m where the end result is a score.
• The kick is more or less in a straight line to goal if at half back or ahead, or hug the boundary line anywhere on the field.
• The player appears to have kicked his maximum distance (ie they haven't popped it up for someone to run onto it).
• Kick ins are included where the player kicks long.
• I probably have other criteria so this list may get edited in the future, but that is a good start for now.

I wanted to get a read on a number of things:

• Location of kick - by zone
• Location of drop - by zone:
  • LBP = Left back pocket: the area inside defensive 50 to the left of the left behind post
  • FB = Full back: the area inside defensive 50 between the behind posts
  • RBP = Right back pocket: the area inside defensive 50 to the right of the right behind post
  • LHB = Left half back: the area between defensive 50 and the back left corner of the centre square
  • CHB = Centre half back: the area between defensive 50 and the back edge of the centre square (this is only a tiny sliver of the ground so did not get used during the Preliminary Final)
  • RHB = Right half back: the area between defensive 50 and the back right corner of the centre square
  • LW = Left wing: the area to the left of the centre square
  • C = Centre: the centre square
  • RW = Right wing: the area to the right of the centre square
  • LHF = Left half forward: the area between forward 50 and the front left corner of the centre square
  • CHF = Centre half forward: the area between forward 50 and the front edge of the centre square (this is only a tiny sliver of the ground so did not get used during the Preliminary Final)
  • RHF = Right half forward: the area between forward 50 and the front right corner of the centre square
  • LFP = Left forward pocket: the area inside forward 50 to the left of the left behind post
  • FF = Full back: the area inside forward 50 between the behind posts
  • RFP = Right forward pocket: the area inside forward 50 to the right of the right behind post
• Result of drop. As far as I could tell there are 8 possible outcomes when the ball comes down:
  • Wins:
    • Contested mark (maybe you can have an uncontested mark if everyone falls over or something but...)
    • Free kick
    • Recovered (where nobody marks it but the kicking team regains possession at ground level and is able to dispose)
  • Neutral:
    • Ball up
    • Throw in
  • Loss:
    • Turnover (where nobody marks it but the defending team regains possession at ground level and is able to dispose)
    • Free kick against
    • Intercept mark
• Result of subsequent chain: for the wins and losses above, what happened to the chain of possession starting with that first disposal, either from the mark/free kick/ground ball get. This is not relevant for the neutral ball situations. Possible outcomes (as far as I could tell):
  • Ball up
  • Throw in
  • Turnover (where the team who gained possession after the long kick subsequently lost it, whether by intercept mark or on the ground)
  • Goal
  • Behind
  • Siren (time expires mid-chain)

My first discovery: certainly in this game, there were a LOT. Way more than I realised watching the game live. In fact, the sheer volume by Carlton, indicated to me that they don't really have a great ball movement plan in their game. To 3 quarter time they had received 12 free kicks and taken 51 marks. That's 63 opportunities to move the ball from a stop-play situation. From those 63 events they kicked long down the line 40 times. That's 63%! I was staggered. Then in the last quarter, when they had to get on with it, they took 29 marks and got 3 free kicks. From those 32 opportunities they kicked long only 6 times. A drop to 19%.

On our part, our biggest struggles came in the first quarter, when we had 19 opportunities and were forced long down the line 9 times. Contrast that with our 2nd quarter when we had 32 opportunities and moved it long down the line only 4 times. The game is almost getting to the stage now where the movement patterns of players can be choreographed, where the space created for one player is dictated by the movement of several other players before that. We did that really well in the 2nd quarter especially.

We also scored really well when Carlton went long down the line, although they did it so much I guess it was bound to happen. Interesting to note that we scored 6-3 (39) from these plays, while Carlton scored 3-4 (22). That was about the final margin, so you could argue that outside of the ball movement of the two teams, there was not much between them.

Because of the granularity of data I haven't really spent much time reviewing the rest of my findings, except to say both teams lost possession more often than they won it. Which I guess makes sense - if teams maintained possession more often in long down the line situations, teams would be less reluctant to use it as a last resort. I guess the results of the possession chains etc would be more useful to see longer term trends. I've provided my raw data below though in case anyone wants to analyse it and maybe find a trend I've missed.

Summary:



Raw data:

Quarter	Time remaining	Team in possession	Location of kick	Kicker	Location of drop	Result of drop	Player with first disposal	Result of chain
1	19:28	Carlton	LBP	Nick Newman	LW	Recovered	Sam Walsh	Goal
1	17:31	Carlton	RBP	Mitch McGovern	RW	Contested mark	Harry McKay	Turnover
1	17:20	Carlton	RW	Harry McKay	FF	Turnover	Brandon Starcevich	Turnover
1	15:42	Brisbane	LBP	Brandon Starcevich	LW	Intercept mark	Tom de Koning	Throw in
1	15:33	Carlton	RW	Tom de Koning	RFP	Throw in	N/A	N/A
1	14:42	Brisbane	FB	Harris Andrews	LW	Turnover	Blake Acres	Throw in
1	14:00	Brisbane	LBP	Keidean Coleman	LW	Turnover	Nick Newman	Goal
1	12:48	Carlton	RHF	Harry McKay	FF	Turnover	Hugh McCluggage	Turnover
1	12:03	Carlton	RW	Sam Walsh	FF	Recovered	Jesse Motlop	Turnover
1	11:40	Brisbane	LBP	Jaspa Fletcher	LHB	Recovered	Jarrod Berry	Throw in
1	11:25	Brisbane	LW	Eric Hipwood	LFP	Throw in	N/A	N/A
1	11:06	Brisbane	LW	Ryan Lester	LFP	Intercept mark	Marc Pittonet	Turnover
1	10:52	Carlton	RBP	Marc Pittonet	RW	Intercept mark	Oscar McInerney	Turnover
1	10:42	Brisbane	LW	Oscar McInerney	LFP	Recovered	Lincoln McCarthy	Turnover
1	10:06	Carlton	LHB	Matt Cottrell	LW	Turnover	Deven Robertson	Turnover
1	09:44	Carlton	LHB	Mitch McGovern	LW	Ball up	N/A	N/A
1	09:03	Brisbane	RW	Jaspa Fletcher	RHF	Recovered	Joe Daniher	Throw in
1	05:27	Brisbane	RHB	Deven Robertson	RW	Turnover	Sam Walsh	Throw in
1	04:37	Carlton	FB	Adam Saad	RW	Contested mark	Harry McKay	Throw in
1	04:23	Carlton	RW	Harry McKay	RHF	Recovered	Jack Martin	Throw in
1	00:26	Carlton	RW	Charlie Curnow	RFP	Turnover	Harris Andrews	Throw in
2	19:43	Carlton	LW	Mitch McGovern	LFP	Recovered	Harry McKay	Behind
2	19:29	Brisbane	RBP	Conor McKenna	RW	Contested mark	Josh Dunkley	Turnover
2	19:12	Brisbane	RW	Lachie Neale	RHF	Recovered	Eric Hipwood	Turnover
2	18:42	Carlton	RBP	George Hewett	LW	Turnover	Josh Dunkley	Ball up
2	17:28	Brisbane	LHB	Keidean Coleman	LW	Intercept mark	Caleb Marchbank	Turnover
2	17:12	Carlton	RW	Caleb Marchbank	RHF	Free kick against	Darcy Gardiner	Goal
2	14:15	Carlton	RW	Patrick Cripps	RHF	Contested mark	Jack Martin	Turnover
2	12:59	Carlton	LW	Blake Acres	LHF	Free kick	Harry McKay	Turnover
2	11:05	Carlton	LW	Adam Saad	LHF	Turnover	Jaspa Fletcher	Turnover
2	10:20	Carlton	LW	Caleb Marchbank	LHF	Free kick	Tom de Koning	Behind
2	10:02	Brisbane	RBP	Darcy Wilmot	LHB	Free kick against	Tom de Koning	Turnover
2	09:55	Carlton	LHF	Tom de Koning	FF	Turnover	Darcy Gardiner	Behind
2	09:19	Carlton	FB	Adam Saad	LW	Turnover	Jaspa Fletcher	Turnover
2	09:05	Carlton	C	Sam Walsh	FF	Ball up	N/A	N/A
2	07:46	Carlton	LBP	?	LW	Turnover	Deven Robertson	Turnover
2	07:26	Carlton	LHB	Adam Cerra	LW	Turnover	Hugh McCluggage	Turnover
2	06:59	Carlton	LHB	Nick Newman	LW	Ball up	N/A	N/A
2	05:27	Carlton	RHB	Sam Docherty	RW	Turnover	Josh Dunkley	Goal
2	03:48	Carlton	LHB	Adam Saad	LW	Throw in	N/A	N/A
2	01:10	Carlton	LBP	Adam Saad	LHB	Recovered	Mitch McGovern	Turnover
2	00:21	Carlton	FB	Mitch McGovern	LHB	Throw in	N/A	N/A
3	18:31	Carlton	RW	Sam Walsh	RFP	Free kick	Charlie Curnow	Turnover
3	17:57	Brisbane	LBP	Keidean Coleman	LW	Recovered	Zac Bailey	Goal
3	16:42	Carlton	FB	Mitch McGovern	RW	Contested mark	Patrick Cripps	Turnover
3	16:06	Brisbane	RW	Charlie Cameron	RFP	Recovered	Cam Rayner	Behind
3	15:49	Carlton	RBP	Mitch McGovern	RHB	Contested mark	Harry McKay	Turnover
3	15:33	Carlton	RHB	Harry McKay	RW	Turnover	Keidean Coleman	Throw in
3	14:13	Carlton	LBP	Adam Saad	LHB	Recovered	Jesse Motlop	Turnover
3	13:15	Carlton	RBP	Jacob Weitering	RW	Intercept mark	Ryan Lester	Throw in
3	13:05	Brisbane	LW	Ryan Lester	LFP	Throw in	N/A	N/A
3	12:45	Carlton	RHB	Harry McKay	RW	Contested mark	Charlie Curnow	Behind
3	12:39	Carlton	RW	Charlie Curnow	FF	Recovered	Matt Cottrell	Behind
3	12:13	Brisbane	LBP	Jarrod Berry	LHB	Throw in	N/A	N/A
3	09:55	Brisbane	RHF	Darcy Wilmot	FF	Throw in	N/A	N/A
3	08:11	Brisbane	RW	Zac Bailey	FF	Intercept mark	Tom de Koning	Turnover
3	07:46	Carlton	LBP	Caleb Marchbank	LW	Recovered	Charlie Curnow	Turnover
3	06:45	Brisbane	LBP	Jarrod Berry	LW	Intercept mark	Mitch McGovern	Turnover
3	05:14	Brisbane	RHB	Jaspa Fletcher	RW	Throw in	N/A	N/A
3	04:20	Carlton	LHB	Patrick Cripps	LW	Ball up	N/A	N/A
3	03:37	Carlton	C	Marc Pittonet	FF	Intercept mark	Keidean Coleman	Turnover
3	03:11	Brisbane	RW	Jaspa Fletcher	RW	Turnover	Marc Pittonet	Turnover
3	00:13	Brisbane	LBP	Dayne Zorko	LW	Recovered	Cam Rayner	Siren
4	17:31	Carlton	LBP	Jacob Weitering	LW	Intercept mark	Harris Andrews	Goal
4	17:19	Brisbane	C	Eric Hipwood	FF	Contested mark	Lincoln McCarthy	Goal
4	15:58	Brisbane	RHF	Lachie Neale	RFP	Recovered	Lincoln McCarthy	Turnover
4	14:00	Brisbane	LW	Joe Daniher	LFP	Recovered	Eric Hipwood	Behind
4	11:59	Brisbane	LHB	Jarrod Berry	LW	Throw in	N/A	N/A
4	08:05	Carlton	RW	Jesse Motlop	RFP	Throw in	N/A	N/A
4	07:47	Carlton	RW	Jacob Weitering	RFP	Turnover	Jarrod Berry	Throw in
4	06:23	Brisbane	LBP	Ryan Lester	LW	Turnover	Adam Cerra	Ball up
4	04:52	Brisbane	LBP	Darcy Wilmot	RW	Throw in	N/A	N/A
4	04:09	Brisbane	RW	Joe Daniher	RFP	Intercept mark	Caleb Marchbank	Turnover
4	03:50	Carlton	RBP	Jacob Weitering	RHB	Intercept mark	Keidean Coleman	Goal
4	02:17	Brisbane	RBP	Conor McKenna	RHB	Free kick against	Caleb Marchbank	Turnover
4	02:08	Carlton	RW	Caleb Marchbank	RFP	Turnover	Lachie Neale	Turnover
4	01:34	Carlton	FB	Jordan Boyd	C	Ball up	N/A	N/A
4	00:57	Brisbane	RW	Lachie Neale	RFP	Intercept mark	Nick Newman	Goal

 

[Grasshopper17]

This just caught my eye. I'm not saying, I'm just saying...

 

[McIvor]

This just caught my eye. I'm not saying, I'm just saying...

Can’t say I’m surprised.

To me it often felt like we stopped and or happy to concede a lot of late goals and it was on full display in all quarters in the GF.

Is it fitness or mental. Disappointing for supposedly one of the better teams in the comp.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Some sleepy Sunday stats.

I wanted to have a look at long kicks down the line, from slow plays. I think it's a good measure for things like defensive intent, work rate in attack etc. I also don't think it is officially published, and if it is, I've never seen any of the numbers behind it.

I started with the Preliminary Final and hopefully I can bring myself to do the Grand Final because I think that will prove very illuminating. The whole process made me feel a bit for the assistant coaches who (I presume) have to go through and code up all the vision for their players. Even collecting this data, about essentially one facet of the game, was a bit of a procedure.

Obviously all of us probably have a good idea of what is a "long kick down the line". But when you go through this process you need a little bit more rigour around your definition, to account for grey areas which might (and did!) arise. So I guess my definition includes the following:

• A free kick is awarded or a mark is taken.
• The player prioritises gaining territory almost completely, over the goal of (a) maintaining possession or (b) scoring. (b) is important because it means I rule out kicks from 50-60m where the end result is a score.
• The kick is more or less in a straight line to goal if at half back or ahead, or hug the boundary line anywhere on the field.
• The player appears to have kicked his maximum distance (ie they haven't popped it up for someone to run onto it).
• Kick ins are included where the player kicks long.
• I probably have other criteria so this list may get edited in the future, but that is a good start for now.

I wanted to get a read on a number of things:

• Location of kick - by zone
• Location of drop - by zone:
  • LBP = Left back pocket: the area inside defensive 50 to the left of the left behind post
  • FB = Full back: the area inside defensive 50 between the behind posts
  • RBP = Right back pocket: the area inside defensive 50 to the right of the right behind post
  • LHB = Left half back: the area between defensive 50 and the back left corner of the centre square
  • CHB = Centre half back: the area between defensive 50 and the back edge of the centre square (this is only a tiny sliver of the ground so did not get used during the Preliminary Final)
  • RHB = Right half back: the area between defensive 50 and the back right corner of the centre square
  • LW = Left wing: the area to the left of the centre square
  • C = Centre: the centre square
  • RW = Right wing: the area to the right of the centre square
  • LHF = Left half forward: the area between forward 50 and the front left corner of the centre square
  • CHF = Centre half forward: the area between forward 50 and the front edge of the centre square (this is only a tiny sliver of the ground so did not get used during the Preliminary Final)
  • RHF = Right half forward: the area between forward 50 and the front right corner of the centre square
  • LFP = Left forward pocket: the area inside forward 50 to the left of the left behind post
  • FF = Full back: the area inside forward 50 between the behind posts
  • RFP = Right forward pocket: the area inside forward 50 to the right of the right behind post
• Result of drop. As far as I could tell there are 8 possible outcomes when the ball comes down:
  • Wins:
    • Contested mark (maybe you can have an uncontested mark if everyone falls over or something but...)
    • Free kick
    • Recovered (where nobody marks it but the kicking team regains possession at ground level and is able to dispose)
  • Neutral:
    • Ball up
    • Throw in
  • Loss:
    • Turnover (where nobody marks it but the defending team regains possession at ground level and is able to dispose)
    • Free kick against
    • Intercept mark
• Result of subsequent chain: for the wins and losses above, what happened to the chain of possession starting with that first disposal, either from the mark/free kick/ground ball get. This is not relevant for the neutral ball situations. Possible outcomes (as far as I could tell):
  • Ball up
  • Throw in
  • Turnover (where the team who gained possession after the long kick subsequently lost it, whether by intercept mark or on the ground)
  • Goal
  • Behind
  • Siren (time expires mid-chain)

My first discovery: certainly in this game, there were a LOT. Way more than I realised watching the game live. In fact, the sheer volume by Carlton, indicated to me that they don't really have a great ball movement plan in their game. To 3 quarter time they had received 12 free kicks and taken 51 marks. That's 63 opportunities to move the ball from a stop-play situation. From those 63 events they kicked long down the line 40 times. That's 63%! I was staggered. Then in the last quarter, when they had to get on with it, they took 29 marks and got 3 free kicks. From those 32 opportunities they kicked long only 6 times. A drop to 19%.

On our part, our biggest struggles came in the first quarter, when we had 19 opportunities and were forced long down the line 9 times. Contrast that with our 2nd quarter when we had 32 opportunities and moved it long down the line only 4 times. The game is almost getting to the stage now where the movement patterns of players can be choreographed, where the space created for one player is dictated by the movement of several other players before that. We did that really well in the 2nd quarter especially.

We also scored really well when Carlton went long down the line, although they did it so much I guess it was bound to happen. Interesting to note that we scored 6-3 (39) from these plays, while Carlton scored 3-4 (22). That was about the final margin, so you could argue that outside of the ball movement of the two teams, there was not much between them.

Because of the granularity of data I haven't really spent much time reviewing the rest of my findings, except to say both teams lost possession more often than they won it. Which I guess makes sense - if teams maintained possession more often in long down the line situations, teams would be less reluctant to use it as a last resort. I guess the results of the possession chains etc would be more useful to see longer term trends. I've provided my raw data below though in case anyone wants to analyse it and maybe find a trend I've missed.

Summary:

View attachment 1837507

Raw data:

Quarter	Time remaining	Team in possession	Location of kick	Kicker	Location of drop	Result of drop	Player with first disposal	Result of chain
1	19:28	Carlton	LBP	Nick Newman	LW	Recovered	Sam Walsh	Goal
1	17:31	Carlton	RBP	Mitch McGovern	RW	Contested mark	Harry McKay	Turnover
1	17:20	Carlton	RW	Harry McKay	FF	Turnover	Brandon Starcevich	Turnover
1	15:42	Brisbane	LBP	Brandon Starcevich	LW	Intercept mark	Tom de Koning	Throw in
1	15:33	Carlton	RW	Tom de Koning	RFP	Throw in	N/A	N/A
1	14:42	Brisbane	FB	Harris Andrews	LW	Turnover	Blake Acres	Throw in
1	14:00	Brisbane	LBP	Keidean Coleman	LW	Turnover	Nick Newman	Goal
1	12:48	Carlton	RHF	Harry McKay	FF	Turnover	Hugh McCluggage	Turnover
1	12:03	Carlton	RW	Sam Walsh	FF	Recovered	Jesse Motlop	Turnover
1	11:40	Brisbane	LBP	Jaspa Fletcher	LHB	Recovered	Jarrod Berry	Throw in
1	11:25	Brisbane	LW	Eric Hipwood	LFP	Throw in	N/A	N/A
1	11:06	Brisbane	LW	Ryan Lester	LFP	Intercept mark	Marc Pittonet	Turnover
1	10:52	Carlton	RBP	Marc Pittonet	RW	Intercept mark	Oscar McInerney	Turnover
1	10:42	Brisbane	LW	Oscar McInerney	LFP	Recovered	Lincoln McCarthy	Turnover
1	10:06	Carlton	LHB	Matt Cottrell	LW	Turnover	Deven Robertson	Turnover
1	09:44	Carlton	LHB	Mitch McGovern	LW	Ball up	N/A	N/A
1	09:03	Brisbane	RW	Jaspa Fletcher	RHF	Recovered	Joe Daniher	Throw in
1	05:27	Brisbane	RHB	Deven Robertson	RW	Turnover	Sam Walsh	Throw in
1	04:37	Carlton	FB	Adam Saad	RW	Contested mark	Harry McKay	Throw in
1	04:23	Carlton	RW	Harry McKay	RHF	Recovered	Jack Martin	Throw in
1	00:26	Carlton	RW	Charlie Curnow	RFP	Turnover	Harris Andrews	Throw in
2	19:43	Carlton	LW	Mitch McGovern	LFP	Recovered	Harry McKay	Behind
2	19:29	Brisbane	RBP	Conor McKenna	RW	Contested mark	Josh Dunkley	Turnover
2	19:12	Brisbane	RW	Lachie Neale	RHF	Recovered	Eric Hipwood	Turnover
2	18:42	Carlton	RBP	George Hewett	LW	Turnover	Josh Dunkley	Ball up
2	17:28	Brisbane	LHB	Keidean Coleman	LW	Intercept mark	Caleb Marchbank	Turnover
2	17:12	Carlton	RW	Caleb Marchbank	RHF	Free kick against	Darcy Gardiner	Goal
2	14:15	Carlton	RW	Patrick Cripps	RHF	Contested mark	Jack Martin	Turnover
2	12:59	Carlton	LW	Blake Acres	LHF	Free kick	Harry McKay	Turnover
2	11:05	Carlton	LW	Adam Saad	LHF	Turnover	Jaspa Fletcher	Turnover
2	10:20	Carlton	LW	Caleb Marchbank	LHF	Free kick	Tom de Koning	Behind
2	10:02	Brisbane	RBP	Darcy Wilmot	LHB	Free kick against	Tom de Koning	Turnover
2	09:55	Carlton	LHF	Tom de Koning	FF	Turnover	Darcy Gardiner	Behind
2	09:19	Carlton	FB	Adam Saad	LW	Turnover	Jaspa Fletcher	Turnover
2	09:05	Carlton	C	Sam Walsh	FF	Ball up	N/A	N/A
2	07:46	Carlton	LBP	?	LW	Turnover	Deven Robertson	Turnover
2	07:26	Carlton	LHB	Adam Cerra	LW	Turnover	Hugh McCluggage	Turnover
2	06:59	Carlton	LHB	Nick Newman	LW	Ball up	N/A	N/A
2	05:27	Carlton	RHB	Sam Docherty	RW	Turnover	Josh Dunkley	Goal
2	03:48	Carlton	LHB	Adam Saad	LW	Throw in	N/A	N/A
2	01:10	Carlton	LBP	Adam Saad	LHB	Recovered	Mitch McGovern	Turnover
2	00:21	Carlton	FB	Mitch McGovern	LHB	Throw in	N/A	N/A
3	18:31	Carlton	RW	Sam Walsh	RFP	Free kick	Charlie Curnow	Turnover
3	17:57	Brisbane	LBP	Keidean Coleman	LW	Recovered	Zac Bailey	Goal
3	16:42	Carlton	FB	Mitch McGovern	RW	Contested mark	Patrick Cripps	Turnover
3	16:06	Brisbane	RW	Charlie Cameron	RFP	Recovered	Cam Rayner	Behind
3	15:49	Carlton	RBP	Mitch McGovern	RHB	Contested mark	Harry McKay	Turnover
3	15:33	Carlton	RHB	Harry McKay	RW	Turnover	Keidean Coleman	Throw in
3	14:13	Carlton	LBP	Adam Saad	LHB	Recovered	Jesse Motlop	Turnover
3	13:15	Carlton	RBP	Jacob Weitering	RW	Intercept mark	Ryan Lester	Throw in
3	13:05	Brisbane	LW	Ryan Lester	LFP	Throw in	N/A	N/A
3	12:45	Carlton	RHB	Harry McKay	RW	Contested mark	Charlie Curnow	Behind
3	12:39	Carlton	RW	Charlie Curnow	FF	Recovered	Matt Cottrell	Behind
3	12:13	Brisbane	LBP	Jarrod Berry	LHB	Throw in	N/A	N/A
3	09:55	Brisbane	RHF	Darcy Wilmot	FF	Throw in	N/A	N/A
3	08:11	Brisbane	RW	Zac Bailey	FF	Intercept mark	Tom de Koning	Turnover
3	07:46	Carlton	LBP	Caleb Marchbank	LW	Recovered	Charlie Curnow	Turnover
3	06:45	Brisbane	LBP	Jarrod Berry	LW	Intercept mark	Mitch McGovern	Turnover
3	05:14	Brisbane	RHB	Jaspa Fletcher	RW	Throw in	N/A	N/A
3	04:20	Carlton	LHB	Patrick Cripps	LW	Ball up	N/A	N/A
3	03:37	Carlton	C	Marc Pittonet	FF	Intercept mark	Keidean Coleman	Turnover
3	03:11	Brisbane	RW	Jaspa Fletcher	RW	Turnover	Marc Pittonet	Turnover
3	00:13	Brisbane	LBP	Dayne Zorko	LW	Recovered	Cam Rayner	Siren
4	17:31	Carlton	LBP	Jacob Weitering	LW	Intercept mark	Harris Andrews	Goal
4	17:19	Brisbane	C	Eric Hipwood	FF	Contested mark	Lincoln McCarthy	Goal
4	15:58	Brisbane	RHF	Lachie Neale	RFP	Recovered	Lincoln McCarthy	Turnover
4	14:00	Brisbane	LW	Joe Daniher	LFP	Recovered	Eric Hipwood	Behind
4	11:59	Brisbane	LHB	Jarrod Berry	LW	Throw in	N/A	N/A
4	08:05	Carlton	RW	Jesse Motlop	RFP	Throw in	N/A	N/A
4	07:47	Carlton	RW	Jacob Weitering	RFP	Turnover	Jarrod Berry	Throw in
4	06:23	Brisbane	LBP	Ryan Lester	LW	Turnover	Adam Cerra	Ball up
4	04:52	Brisbane	LBP	Darcy Wilmot	RW	Throw in	N/A	N/A
4	04:09	Brisbane	RW	Joe Daniher	RFP	Intercept mark	Caleb Marchbank	Turnover
4	03:50	Carlton	RBP	Jacob Weitering	RHB	Intercept mark	Keidean Coleman	Goal
4	02:17	Brisbane	RBP	Conor McKenna	RHB	Free kick against	Caleb Marchbank	Turnover
4	02:08	Carlton	RW	Caleb Marchbank	RFP	Turnover	Lachie Neale	Turnover
4	01:34	Carlton	FB	Jordan Boyd	C	Ball up	N/A	N/A
4	00:57	Brisbane	RW	Lachie Neale	RFP	Intercept mark	Nick Newman	Goal

Old news now but I did go back and review long kicks down the line in the Grand Final, with a bit of expanded analysis:



Surprisingly, the number of long kicks down the line were similar, at 30 to 31, and 25% of the time to 24%. I thought we had done it much more than Collingwood throughout the game, but interestingly, Collingwood did it 10 times in the last quarter, when they held the lead for most of it.

To me the most telling stat is the bottom line: Net turnover %. This is the % of the time each team turned the ball over when they DID NOT go long down the line. Collingwood turned it over just 12% of the time: We simply could not get the ball off them. On the other hand, we turned it over 18% of the time - 50% more often.

By contrast, the turnover rate from long kicks down the line was 37% and 32% - much higher, and explains teams' reluctance to do so, using it these days mainly as a last resort.

Also, total scoring from long kicks down the line were 21-14 in favour of Collingwood. Like the Prelim Final, this was about the final margin as well.



I also did the Qualifying Final vs Port. What immediately jumps off the page to me is how relatively few there were, particularly by Port. This probably equates with our recollection of what was a pretty free flowing game:


We can see from this that long kicks down the line resulted in turnovers 60% of the time for us and 55% of the time for Port - much higher than in the Grand Final. But on the other hand Port turned it over more often (20% of the time) from other phases of play.

I found it interesting that Port went long down the line far less often than we did, but still ended the game with more turnovers, and obviously an 8 goal defeat. To me this indicates that recording only the number of long kicks down the line is limited in value, whereas value can be gleaned from learning what happens after that kick, which is what I've attempted to uncover here.

Instructively, scoring from long kicks down the line (by both teams) favoured us 26-7, contributing 40% of the final margin from only 8% of the game's total disposals.



My final observation is that across our 3 finals, we went long down the line 30, 32 and 31 times. We were nothing if not consistent!



I have the raw data from both these games if anyone would like access to it, but have kept them out of this post to try to keep it a bit shorter. I'll endeavour to do this for our games in 2024, time permitting!

 

[MSB ROYS]

Short discussion on pressure ratings - 78% of winning teams had greater pressure ratings this year to date.

 

[McIvor]

Looking at our quarters won and clearly we have a second half issue.

To date we are 45 goals (1Q = 27 and 2Q = 18) to our oppositions 33 (1Q = 19 and 2Q = 14) with a win loss of quarters being W9 / L5.

Compare that to the second half:

To date we are 27 goals (3Q = 9 and 4Q = 18) to our oppositions 48 (3Q = 26 and 4Q = 22) with a win loss of quarters being W3 / L9 / D2.

Fitness or something else?