Analysis Season 2023 - Statistics and Analytics Thread

[Elixuh]

Need to give you some kind of award Tom14 for regularly subjecting yourself to David King to provide this information for us.

Tom is that monk from the da Vinci Code that whips himself while watching David King

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Tom is that monk from the da Vinci Code that whips himself while watching David King

 

[M Malice]

Statistics can be manipulated to suit a narrative...

 

[Grasshopper17]

This evening's result is not only marvellous for the elimination of the Bulldogs, but it also means we have beaten 4 top 8 teams on the road for the first time in our (merged) club's history.

Our previous best was in 1999 when we beat Carlton, Port Adelaide and Sydney, all away.

 

[Big Sauce 21]

 

[Jivlain]

View attachment 1787699

As David King noted, it's 38 wins, 38 losses. So they are the 50-50 games we've been talking about

 

[Grasshopper17]

Top 8 v top 4 teams

Brisbane 3-2 (102.62)
Melbourne 2-2 (97.1)
Port 2-2 (95.9)
Collingwood 2-3 (102.65)
Carlton 2-3 (99.0)
Giants 1-3 (67.0)
St Kilda 0-5 (80.9)
Sydney 0-5 (73.8)

 

[Tom14]

Rough differentials for expected score vs actual score for each team on the season - we had the second most scored against us above expectation behind port:

 

[Tom14]

Posted in the match thread about the Shinboner website's finals dossier for Brisbane. This will be posted publicly later today I think but here's a few interesting snippets from it and I'll edit in a link to the full thing later so you can read it for yourself:

A snapshot of Brisbane’s home and away season​

Brisbane’s strengths: How they beat you​

It feels a little odd to use a game where Brisbane coughed up a 24-point lead with seven minutes to go as proof of how their ball movement improved, but what’s forgotten is up until that point, the Lions had sliced through Melbourne’s vaunted defence time and time again.

Over the first half of the season, their style of movement meant they would have been less likely to. Think back to Round 3 against the Western Bulldogs where they were content to take the percentage play time and time again, gifting the opposition exactly what they wanted.

Although Brisbane has always been a kick-heavy team – in the top two for kick to handball ratio in each of the last five years – as 2023 wore on they found the right balance in using it to attack, and it was on show against the Demons.

The key is how Brisbane looked for – and found – the soft spots in Melbourne’s defence. Here’s one elongated example…

04-brisbane-v-melbourne-1-mp4

videopress.com

Not sure the above video comes across as easily as it does on the shinboner page - so worth looking at the original post when it goes public.

Josh Dunkley

5

Josh Dunkley

Age

27

Ht

191cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.8

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

11.3

5star

M

4.3

4star

T

5.8

5star

CL

3.2

5star

D

20.7

5star

K

7.0

3star

HB

13.7

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

5.3

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

14.2

4star

K

7.2

3star

HB

7.0

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

4.0

5star

CL

1.4

4star

’s arrival – along with Ashcroft until his season ending injury – simplified Brisbane’s midfield rotation considerably.

In 2022 it was Lachie Neale

9

Lachie Neale

Age

30

Ht

178cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.0

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

15.5

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.7

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

28.3

5star

K

13.9

5star

HB

14.4

5star

M

4.6

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

7.4

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

as an ever present, followed by Jarryd Lyons

17

Jarryd Lyons

Age

31

Ht

184cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

20.5

5star

K

11.8

4star

HB

8.7

5star

M

2.9

3star

T

4.4

5star

CL

4.8

5star

D

21.7

5star

K

14.7

5star

HB

7.0

4star

M

3.4

3star

T

5.1

5star

CL

4.7

5star

D

11.0

3star

K

5.2

2star

HB

5.8

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.0

4star

CL

1.6

4star

and Hugh McCluggage

6

Hugh Mccluggage

Age

26

Ht

185cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.3

5star

K

11.4

4star

HB

7.9

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.0

5star

CL

2.2

4star

D

19.0

4star

K

12.0

5star

HB

7.0

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

2.0

4star

D

13.2

4star

K

7.8

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.8

4star

CL

0.6

3star

as distant second and third bananas, then a rotating, changing cast elsewhere from week to week.

This year it’s been Neale and Dunkley as full-time, reliable on-ballers. Having Dunkley as the two-way player in tight has allowed the Lions to be the best side in the competition in clearance differential. Their +153 this year is a far cry from their 2022 numbers: +13 and 10th in the league.

Although the Lions don’t light games on fire with their scoring from stoppages – 11th for points per clearance win – it’s the sheer weight of numbers which overwhelms opponents.

11th for points per clearance win translates to fifth for total points from clearances and fuels their forward half game. If a team is constantly winning stoppages, simple logic reasons they’ll have the ball closer to goal more often than not.

Having those two midfield linchpins has allowed Brisbane to mix and match their partners depending on game situation and player availability.

The question: Are Brisbane a much better side than previous years?​

No doubt there have been improvements in certain areas this year. Dunkley has been vital, Ashcroft important until his injury, and Jack Payne has blossomed into a reliable key defender, allowing Harris Andrews

31

Harris Andrews

Age

27

Ht

202cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.8

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.6

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

151.7

2star

D

17.0

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.0

3star

D

9.8

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

4.8

4star

M

3.4

4star

T

1.6

4star

MG

94.0

2star

to run his own race behind the ball.

For all that, there are still plenty of lingering questions on how Brisbane’s team defence will hold up without a contest advantage in high pressure games, and whether they can maintain the execution needed for their ball movement to translate into scoreboard pressure.

They’re the ultimate ‘prove it in finals’ test case. But of their five finals campaigns under Chris Fagan, this looms as the year where they don’t necessarily have to be much better than previous years to reach a Grand Final. Those incremental improvements, two home finals, and the overall evenness of the competition could all fall in Brisbane’s favour.

 

[Tom14]

Link to the Shinboner finals dossier for us if anyone wants to read more: 2023 Finals Dossier: Brisbane Lions

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

I respect Squiggle and I think this suggests we (I) have massively underrated GWS this year. Are they a some kind of decent chance of making the GF? They are right up there in contention.

 

[Grasshopper17]

I respect Squiggle and I think this suggests we (I) have massively underrated GWS this year. Are they a some kind of decent chance of making the GF? They are right up there in contention.

View attachment 1799833

I think so. They're a heck of a team. A 6 day break leading into the Prelim against Collingwood will sort them out one way or the other... get through that and anything's possible.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Updated quarter by quarter stats ahead of this weekend's matches. Be on the lookout for both Melbourne and the Giants to finish very strongly.

 

[Section 5]

Updated quarter by quarter stats ahead of this weekend's matches. Be on the lookout for both Melbourne and the Giants to finish very strongly.

View attachment 1803304

A shame we don't have one for the last month on the teams left in the race.
That would be a bit more relevant heading into the GF.

 

[Grasshopper17]

A shame we don't have one for the last month on the teams left in the race.
That would be a bit more relevant heading into the GF.

I see what you are trying to do here. And I'm all in.

Last 5 weeks (4 home and away rounds + finals week 1):

 

[Tom14]

Belated post following on from the tuesday night Champion data segment on SEN - how contested ball is a big indicator for our record:



The key point is that we are 17-1 when we don't lose contested ball by double digits (i.e. -9 or better), but 1-5 when we lose contested ball by 10.

I like to nitpick champion data (and I had a quiet morning at work) so I actually went and looked at the other top 4 teams to see if we were a significant outlier on this stat. And in reality I think we are:

Pies

Contested ball differential	Record
-10 or worse	3-2
-9 or better	16-3

Dees

Contested ball differential	Record
-10 or worse	2-1
-9 or better	15-6

Port

Contested ball differential	Record
-10 or worse	4-4
-9 or better	13-3

Port have the closest profile to us with a 4-4 record when they lose contested ball by double digits, so maybe it is an indicator of having a defence less able to compensate for when you are losing contested ball?

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

Team	P	W	D	L
Western Bulldogs	44	21		23
Port Adelaide	42	21	2	19
North Melbourne	42	21	1	20
Geelong	41	17		24
Sydney	40	15	1	24
Collingwood	38	23		15
St Kilda	38	22		16
Carlton	38	22		16
Adelaide	38	20		18
Hawthorn	38	17		21
Richmond	38	12	1	25
Melbourne	37	19		18
West Coast	37	15		22
Essendon	36	18	1	17
Fremantle	34	18		16
Gold Coast	25	18		7
Greater Western Sydney	15	8		7
TOTAL	621	307	6	308

Let's get back up to and over 50% by the end of the season, eh?

 

[Grasshopper17]

Team	P	W	D	L
Western Bulldogs	44	21		23
Port Adelaide	42	21	2	19
North Melbourne	42	21	1	20
Geelong	41	17		24
Sydney	40	15	1	24
Collingwood	38	23		15
St Kilda	38	22		16
Carlton	38	22		16
Adelaide	38	20		18
Hawthorn	38	17		21
Richmond	38	12	1	25
Melbourne	37	19		18
West Coast	37	15		22
Essendon	36	18	1	17
Fremantle	34	18		16
Gold Coast	25	18		7
Greater Western Sydney	15	8		7
TOTAL	621	307	6	308

Let's get back up to and over 50% by the end of the season, eh?

What's this? We aren't even listed there?

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

What's this? We aren't even listed there?

Sorry, it's our results against each team since the merger

 

[Section 5]

I see what you are trying to do here. And I'm all in.

Last 5 weeks (4 home and away rounds + finals week 1):

View attachment 1803394

The 6 teams left in the finals.
Their last 5 games % per quarter and ACPQ rank
Taken from Grasshopper17 above chart.

Melbourne played: Nth, Blues, Hawks, Swans, Pies.
GWS played.......: Swans, Power, bombers, Blues, Saints.
Lions played......: Dockers, Crows, Pies, Saints, Power.
Carlton played...: Saints, demons, Suns, GWS, Swans.
Port played.......: Cats, GWS, Dockers, Tigers, Lions.
Pies played.......: Hawks, Cats, Lions, Bombers, Demons.

Team	ACPQ Rank Year (Last 5 games)	% per Quarter 1	Quarter 2	Quarter 3	Quarter 4	ACPQ Last 5 Games
Melbourne	2 (2)	84.9	160.9	126.9	254.1	38.19%
GWS	1 (3)	102.9	117.9	147.5	140.5	13.19%
Brisbane lions	16 (5)	104.3	112.6	127.1	125.9	6.37%
Carlton	13 (6)	95.8	121.8	79.2	126.3	4.32%
Port	10 (8)	101.2	113.6	120.6	97.3	-0.43%
Pies	15 (17)	102.7	144.3	126.4	62.1	-11.05%

 

[dlanod]

Sorry, it's our results against each team since the merger

I can think of several times over the years where we've beaten ourselves but can't see that in the table?

 

[Grasshopper17]

Updated quarter by quarter stats.

Full season:



And the last 5 weeks (Preliminary Final teams only):



It's interesting to look at the remaining 4 teams. Our opponent, Carlton, did win their last quarter against Melbourne but they conceded 8 scores to 6 and to be honest looked out on their feet. The game before that they lost the last quarter (and the 3rd quarter) to Sydney, a team who has really struggled to run out games this year, as evidenced by the chart above. And it was comprehensive: 4 scores to 8 in the third and 3 scores to 7 in the last. Before that, they got blown off the park by the Giants in the last quarter and a half.

In the other game, Collingwood are highly regarded for their ability to run out games and win the close ones. But in their Qualifying Final, they really were obliterated in the last quarter, and were lucky to only concede 5 scores while having 2 of their own. The game before that, admittedly a nothing 2nd half against Essendon, they still conceded 10 scores to 7 after half time. Our last quarter was impressive against them, even Dad's army Geelong kicked 5 goals to 3 against them in the last. You have to go back to Round 19 against Port to find the last time they comprehensively outscored any team in the last quarter.

Even their opponents, the Giants, despite being at the top of both tables above, in their two finals they have "done enough" rather than putting the foot on the throat. 10 scores against to 2 in the last quarter against Port, after conceding 5 to 4 against St Kilda.

On the flipside, in our recent last quarters we've had 7 shots to 2 against Port, 9 to 3 against St Kilda, 8 to 6 against Collingwood. It's actually a pretty good recent record, certainly compared to the 3 remaining teams, and that's certainly something I didn't think I'd be writing a month ago. Indeed, our last quarters have been our best in the last 5 weeks

 

[LongLion]

Updated quarter by quarter stats.

Full season:

View attachment 1809047

And the last 5 weeks (Preliminary Final teams only):

View attachment 1809048

It's interesting to look at the remaining 4 teams. Our opponent, Carlton, did win their last quarter against Melbourne but they conceded 8 scores to 6 and to be honest looked out on their feet. The game before that they lost the last quarter (and the 3rd quarter) to Sydney, a team who has really struggled to run out games this year, as evidenced by the chart above. And it was comprehensive: 4 scores to 8 in the third and 3 scores to 7 in the last. Before that, they got blown off the park by the Giants in the last quarter and a half.

In the other game, Collingwood are highly regarded for their ability to run out games and win the close ones. But in their Qualifying Final, they really were obliterated in the last quarter, and were lucky to only concede 5 scores while having 2 of their own. The game before that, admittedly a nothing 2nd half against Essendon, they still conceded 10 scores to 7 after half time. Our last quarter was impressive against them, even Dad's army Geelong kicked 5 goals to 3 against them in the last. You have to go back to Round 19 against Port to find the last time they comprehensively outscored any team in the last quarter.

Even their opponents, the Giants, despite being at the top of both tables above, in their two finals they have "done enough" rather than putting the foot on the throat. 10 scores against to 2 in the last quarter against Port, after conceding 5 to 4 against St Kilda.

On the flipside, in our recent last quarters we've had 7 shots to 2 against Port, 9 to 3 against St Kilda, 8 to 6 against Collingwood. It's actually a pretty good recent record, certainly compared to the 3 remaining teams, and that's certainly something I didn't think I'd be writing a month ago. Indeed, our last quarters have been our best in the last 5 weeks

Something I observed in our last couple of games was the number of goals we kicked in red time. I saw this as previously a weakness of ours. That was always the strength of the 3peat teams. You always knew they would never give up.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Something I observed in our last couple of games was the number of goals we kicked in red time. I saw this as previously a weakness of ours. That was always the strength of the 3peat teams. You always knew they would never give up.

Yeah this too is interesting.

Red time records in Finals:

Collingwood 2-1 (13) v Melbourne 0
Collingwood 0 v Melbourne 0-2 (2)
Collingwood 1-1 (7) v Melbourne 1-3 (9)
Collingwood 0 v Melbourne 1-0 (6)
--------------------------------------------------
Collingwood 3-2 (20) v Melbourne 2-5 (17)

Carlton 1-1 (7) v Sydney 0-2 (2)
Carlton 2-0 (12) v Sydney 1-1 (7)
Carlton 1-0 (6) v Sydney 2-1 (13)
Carlton 1-0 (6) v Sydney 1-2 (8)
--------------------------------------------------
Carlton 5-1 (31) v Sydney 4-6 (30)

St Kilda 0-2 (2) v GWS 3-2 (20)
St Kilda 4-1 (25) v GWS 2-0 (12)
St Kilda 3-0 (18) v GWS 2-0 (12)
St Kilda 1-1 (7) v GWS 0
--------------------------------------------------
St Kilda 8-4 (52) v GWS 7-2 (44)

Brisbane 1-1 (7) v Port 1-1 (7)
Brisbane 3-1 (19) v Port 2-0 (12)
Brisbane 4-0 (24) v Port 1-2 (8)
Brisbane 1-2 (8) v Port 2-0 (12)
--------------------------------------------------
Brisbane 9-4 (58) v Port 6-3 (39)

Melbourne 0 v Carlton 2-0 (12)
Melbourne 0-3 (3) v Carlton 0-1 (1)
Melbourne 1-2 (8) v Carlton 0-1 (1)
Melbourne 0-2 (2) v Carlton 2-1 (13)
--------------------------------------------------
Melbourne 1-7 (13) v Carlton 4-3 (27)

Port 2-0 (12) v GWS 2-3 (15)
Port 0-4 (4) v GWS 0-4 (4)
Port 0 v GWS 0-3 (3)
Port 0-4 (4) v GWS 1-0 (6)
--------------------------------------------------
Port 2-8 (20) v GWS 3-10 (28)

So overall it's

Team	For	Against	%	Scores for	Scores against	Scores %	Weighted %
Brisbane	9-4 (58)	6-3 (39)	148.7	13	9	144.4	146.6
Sydney	4-6 (30)	5-1 (31)	96.8	10	6	166.7	131.8
St Kilda	8-4 (52)	7-2 (44)	118.2	12	9	133.3	125.8
Carlton	9-4 (58)	5-13 (43)	134.9	13	18	72.2	103.4
GWS	10-12 (72)	10-12 (72)	100.0	22	22	100.0	100.0
Collingwood	3-2 (20)	2-5 (17)	117.7	5	7	71.4	94.6
Melbourne	3-12 (30)	7-5 (47)	63.8	15	12	125.0	94.4
Port	8-11 (59)	12-14 (86)	68.6	19	26	73.1	70.8

Interestingly though, we scored 9 goals to 6 in red time against Port, which means we scored 10 goals to 5 for the rest of the game. I think as a general trend, the only concrete observation is that scoring is heavier in red time, at both ends.

 

[Nunez]

Updated quarter by quarter stats.

Full season:

View attachment 1809047

And the last 5 weeks (Preliminary Final teams only):

View attachment 1809048

It's interesting to look at the remaining 4 teams. Our opponent, Carlton, did win their last quarter against Melbourne but they conceded 8 scores to 6 and to be honest looked out on their feet. The game before that they lost the last quarter (and the 3rd quarter) to Sydney, a team who has really struggled to run out games this year, as evidenced by the chart above. And it was comprehensive: 4 scores to 8 in the third and 3 scores to 7 in the last. Before that, they got blown off the park by the Giants in the last quarter and a half.

In the other game, Collingwood are highly regarded for their ability to run out games and win the close ones. But in their Qualifying Final, they really were obliterated in the last quarter, and were lucky to only concede 5 scores while having 2 of their own. The game before that, admittedly a nothing 2nd half against Essendon, they still conceded 10 scores to 7 after half time. Our last quarter was impressive against them, even Dad's army Geelong kicked 5 goals to 3 against them in the last. You have to go back to Round 19 against Port to find the last time they comprehensively outscored any team in the last quarter.

Even their opponents, the Giants, despite being at the top of both tables above, in their two finals they have "done enough" rather than putting the foot on the throat. 10 scores against to 2 in the last quarter against Port, after conceding 5 to 4 against St Kilda.

On the flipside, in our recent last quarters we've had 7 shots to 2 against Port, 9 to 3 against St Kilda, 8 to 6 against Collingwood. It's actually a pretty good recent record, certainly compared to the 3 remaining teams, and that's certainly something I didn't think I'd be writing a month ago. Indeed, our last quarters have been our best in the last 5 weeks

Timing our run baby!