Analysis Season 2023 - Statistics and Analytics Thread

[Grasshopper17]

Update on this... Q4 %'s to the end of Round 19:

The green highlighting indicates Q4 is that team's best quarter. The orange highlighting indicates it's that team's worst quarter.

 

[Toffee Lion]

Update on this... Q4 %'s to the end of Round 19:

The green highlighting indicates Q4 is that team's best quarter. The orange highlighting indicates it's that team's worst quarter.

View attachment 1755857

I guess based on your previous post, it's very likely Collingwood or Melbourne will win the flag this year, at least according to history.

 

[Grasshopper17]

I guess based on your previous post, it's very likely Collingwood or Melbourne will win the flag this year, at least according to history.

That's my interpretation.

 

[Tom14]

That's my interpretation.

 

[Jivlain]

How the Brisbane Lions are switching directions to achieve attacking success

Sitting third on the AFL ladder, the Lions' attack has featured renewed verve this season, as they push towards another finals campaign.

www.abc.net.au

Another really interesting article on how we switch the ball and how good Harris actually is for switching leading to a score

View attachment 1744886
View attachment 1744887

Particularly in the Melbourne game, in the parts where we were good we were basically running a switching clinic

 

[Grasshopper17]

Fine. I will conduct my next statistical update in a funny hat. Or a big hat. Whichever.

 

[M Malice]

All good, what we have to do is be up by so much at 3/4 time the 4th quarter is an irrelevance.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Update on this... Q4 %'s to the end of Round 19:

The green highlighting indicates Q4 is that team's best quarter. The orange highlighting indicates it's that team's worst quarter.

View attachment 1755857

For those who tried to talk down to people frustrated after the Geelong game this is the exact same reason.

Need to start finding a way of being more consistent over the 4 quarters and not allow the opposition to get runs of goals like 6 of the last 8 by Geelong on the weekend

 

[Tom14]

Fine. I will conduct my next statistical update in a funny hat. Or a big hat. Whichever.

Putting aside my pithy response, my thinking about the 4th quarter stat you've raised would just lead me to think that the best few teams in a year would have the likeliest chance of having the highest percentage in the 4th quarter, all things being equal. So that would explain why there is good correlation between that and the eventual premier rather than fitness per se.

Which isn't reassuring for us really. I do think we need to improve our handling of last quarters (and it would be beneficial for us to actually have to come from behind and win a game at some point), but I'm not going to stress yet about it.

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

Update on this... Q4 %'s to the end of Round 19:

The green highlighting indicates Q4 is that team's best quarter. The orange highlighting indicates it's that team's worst quarter.

View attachment 1755857

It's an interesting analysis. It occurs to me though that teams that are already well in front at 3QT are less motivated to kick on than teams that are behind. Collingwood, as we all know, have made winning from behind a key feature of their season this year and last, and that makes a strong Q4 essential to their strong ladder position. Of course our inability to finish teams off has led to a couple of the losses we've had this year, but I think a comparison with Collingwood can invite multiple interpretations of the data.

 

[M Malice]

IMO the Magpies propensity for close finishes will come back to haunt them just like in the 2022 finals series, it is a lot harder to come back against the better sides in the competition.

2022 finals they lost to the Cats by a goal and the Swans by 1 point.

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

IMO the Magpies propensity for close finishes will come back to haunt them just like in the 2022 finals series, it is a lot harder to come back against the better sides in the competition.

2022 finals they lost to the Cats by a goal and the Swans by 1 point.

I agree - it's a risky trait to have, even if they are good at what they do.

 

[Kernel Kurtz]

Particularly in the Melbourne game, in the parts where we were good we were basically running a switching clinic

And conversley we faulted when we went down the line to the awaiting Gawn instead of an obvious switch.
Well I say obvious because it had already happened and the other option was the switch.
Those figures did surprise me a bit , I think we could switch even more when it's on to do so.
I like it , we are definetly retaining more possession for mind , and we look good when we do.
It still comes down to how we spread and our work rate.

I think that last bit , WORK RATE, is an important factor that we have to keep up even when we are trying to play safe or hold off an attack.
Work hard to retain possession , not go the easy out down the line is one example.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Putting aside my pithy response, my thinking about the 4th quarter stat you've raised would just lead me to think that the best few teams in a year would have the likeliest chance of having the highest percentage in the 4th quarter, all things being equal. So that would explain why there is good correlation between that and the eventual premier rather than fitness per se.

Correct. But this is why I placed equal emphasis in my earlier post on not just a team's performance in 4th quarters as opposed to all other teams' performances in 4th quarters, but also a team's performance in 4th quarters as opposed to all its other quarters.

Otherwise I'd agree with you: the premiership team should have a better % in basically all quarters compared to all other teams. But what we are seeing is that the premiership teams make finishing games strongly a focus, whether intentionally or as a byproduct of other aspects of their preparation.

This is where the highlighted rows in my previous comment come into play.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Here is the full table for completeness.

 

[Nathan Barley]

So we're better in second quarters than Collingwood are in the last

 

[Dalions]

Here is the full table for completeness.

View attachment 1756243

What does the slope mean?
What I see from that is that we build our lead early to mid game and typically just hold the game from there.
The problem will come in games where we don’t build a decent lead and have to keep on going to win the game.
If you go back a couple of years, I was never particularly confident in games that we had to com from behind because we always seemed to panic, we have seen in the more recent past that we are much better in that scenario now. Ie. the 2 finals games last year and then the game against Melbourne 2 weeks ago.
It is defending a small lead where we look most shaky now.

 

[Nathan Barley]

So Collingwood usually give up a lead in the 3rd and get it back in the 4th?

Would seem their second halves are no better than their firsts so maybe they don't run the game our very strongly

 

[rye]

its a bit of a funny one

we do have some obvious outlier games where our last quarters were a big issue. both the melbourne games come to mind

but then there were the games against essendon and gold coast where we also did not really get a hold of them until the final quarter

when we played collingwood earlier in the season i think our last quarter against them as the final quarter specialists was basically a draw which let us maintain our lead built up over the rest of the game

i think the two melbourne games and the geelong games have lots of things we can draw from to help the players understand what our best football looks like, not just how we can perform better in fourth quarters. so i hope tape of them is being shown regardless

 

[Dalions]

So Collingwood usually give up a lead in the 3rd and get it back in the 4th?

Would seem their second halves are no better than their firsts so maybe they don't run the game our very strongly

Looks like they ease off a bit in the third quarter to keep the run in the legs for the 4th

 

[M Malice]

Our 2nd quarters are the best quarters by any team this season, all credit to Chris Fagan for his quarter time talk/adjustments, a truly elite game day coach.

I would rather be playing from in front than from behind like the Pies come finals.

 

[Dalions]

I feel as though our last quarters will be a focus for the rest of the year, to get it right before finals.

 

[LongLion]

I feel as though our last quarters will be a focus for the rest of the year, to get it right before finals.

The game against the Pies at marvel should hopefully answer all these questions and more

 

[Nunez]

The game against the Pies at marvel should hopefully answer all these questions and more

The only question it answers for me is who out of Brisbane and Port will get the home final. The winner of that game will have no bearing on who'd win the same match in finals.

 

[Grasshopper17]

What does the slope mean?

That's essentially drawing a line of best fit through each team's % for each quarter, and it's the slope of that line, ie the amount a team's % is expected to change by, each subsequent quarter.