Peaking players and bottoming out players

[Kid A]

Once we have our cash cows settled, our attention comes to peak/trough trades: trading in someone who's hit what we think is the high point of his price, for a gun who's bottoming out.

The hardest part is judging when a player has truly peaked (Joel Selwood from last year comes to mind). It's always a bit risky, in any case, to trade out a player who's performing well and overperforming (a peaking player) for a gun in poor form, but that's one way of securing the best team.

So what plans have we got? Obviously players to bottom out in the next 2-3 weeks will be BJ and Brown. Everyone who doesn't have them should have them soon because their BEs are sky high and price drops are plummeting. Once their price drops enough that their BEs come back to earth, I'm looking at picking them up. (Or Brown, at least, since I have BJ.)

As for peaking players, all the cash cows (Palmer, Hill, Dyson, Griffen, etc.) still have negative or low BEs, so they haven't come close to peaking yet. Looking at my team, I expect all the non-guns to keep making money (save perhaps NIcoski), so I'll probably just have to do straight upgrades.

What are your thoughts? As the new prices and BEs come in after the games we'll have a lot better idea.

 

[potatomasher]

Adcock this week. If you didn't get him you've missed out, as he got a 6 or something in round one.

 

[Deez Baby]

BJ has a B/E of like 138 now

He is very dissapointing atm

 

[paramore]

Goodes had crap rnd 1, turned it around. 80 something and 90 something rnd 2 and 3.

 

[swansfan51]

Stanton, Johnson, Brown and Bowden.

 

[T Rick]

I think Trent West has peaked at 106k hahaha.

 

[Tippaz]

i reckon Josh Hill is 2 scores away from peak (or pretty much thereabouts)

 

[Cartman121]

i reckon Josh Hill is 2 scores away from peak (or pretty much thereabouts)

Far off it, still has a BE of -28 although already rising to $217k and only scoring 55. Another 80+ this week would hardly move that BE. Hopefully pulls out a good score this week and peaks at around 350k A nice straight swap for Kane Cornes would be adequate (i can dream can't i? )

Edit: just read over this post... Hill to Cornes
It was early in the morning cut me some slack

 

[Brogie]

Adcock this week. If you didn't get him you've missed out, as he got a 6 or something in round one.

still a few weeks to get adcock. only beat his BE and will go up $2K. BE next week of 90

 

[Brogie]

Im hoping the geelong guns will suffer a hit next week against the DT killers sydney. Corey BE 104, Bartel 111, Ablett 109. Its might be the only chance for those of us who dont have them

 

[Souup]

Riewoldt anyone??

 

[WakeUpPies]

Steve J?

 

[potatomasher]

still a few weeks to get adcock. only beat his BE and will go up $2K. BE next week of 90

I said that before he got 70-whatever. Disappointing from him, really, but I still reckon I've gotten him at his lowest price. He should beat that BE score.

 

[banana_bus]

Far off it, still has a BE of -28 although already rising to $217k and only scoring 55. Another 80+ this week would hardly move that BE. Hopefully pulls out a good score this week and peaks at around 350k A nice straight swap for Kane Cornes would be adequate (i can dream can't i? )

Keep dreaming, because Hill is a forward

 

[Kid A]

My plans re my forward line:

Hall is going to be out for at least six, by the looks of it. (Of course, if he isn't, all this is for nought.) I have the depth to cover him. And he does have a lowish BE which means he will continue to go up when he comes back, from 337K or thereabouts to around 350, maybe even more.

So there's reason to keep him. But if he's injured on top of his suspension, that's a worry. Furthermore, I need to make room for Riewoldt and JB. I don't think there's any doubt that those two are forwards I want in my final 22 more than Hall.

I have the funds to trade either/both in--so whom to replace in my forwards? Rioli and Tippett I am happy with as emergencies and neither is close to peaking. Porps hasn't peaked yet and really looks the good. So they stay. BJ and Pav will stay all season. That leaves me with Hall, Deledio, Hill & Didak as upgrade targets.

I think the best thing to do is to wait this one week and sub in Rioli, then latch onto Riewoldt & Brown the next week as they bottom out. (BEs this week of 128/125 respectively.) I'll have the choice of upgrading any of the four of them, and upgrading after R5 leaves me more form information. Hall looks to be one of the upgradees due to his lengthy absence.

Meanwhile, this week, I do something about that bloody Nicoski. Granted they were playing Sydney, but he's not going well at all. I don't have funds to upgrade him to a keeper, so a sideways trade here looks inevitable.

Any other injuries within the next two weeks I have the bench to cover for. Hopefully that will turn out well. I've only used one trade thus far so I'm not concerned about 3 trades in the next two weeks.

 

[Cartman121]

Had to use 4 so far and basically havent had a choice with Drummond and Lucas going down, had to get rid of proud and decided to upgrade Houli to Murphy. Planned on not doing anymore trades for a couple of weeks and now Gamble and Hall are suspended...this is turning out to be a horrid season. On top of that ive had about six 50's this week, going to struggle to make 1800

 

[Kid A]

Bad week for me too. Why trade out Proud? He hasn't done that badly and it's not like there are many other cheap backs that are vying for a spot. If it was to cover a zero I probably would have just taken the zero. Terrible week for backs.

 

[sherrin_footy]

dont trade out proud, coming from a lions supporter.
Im bewildered as to why he was dropped from the lions side, as are most of the posters on the lions board. Should be back soon.

 

[crazyman27]

I have a fair bit of moula in the bank and was going to trade Bird for K.Cornes. Only problem is Bird has a BE of 1 or something and I think K.Cornes is 130. I wouldn't be surprised if Cornes gets that BE this week, but I do want to make sure I make the most of Bird.

 

[sherrin_footy]

I have a fair bit of moula in the bank and was going to trade Bird for K.Cornes. Only problem is Bird has a BE of 1 or something and I think K.Cornes is 130. I wouldn't be surprised if Cornes gets that BE this week, but I do want to make sure I make the most of Bird.

I suggest you re read your post. Definately wait until you do that trade. Even if you think that cornes will pass his break even of 130, (unlikely) he might only get 140. He will only rise a small amount.
Whereas, bird has a breakeven of 1. I rekon he will get about 40 points. He will rise more.
I cant be bothered to do the exact equations using ff genie, but definately wait.

 

[The Special 1]

I suggest you re read your post. Definately wait until you do that trade. Even if you think that cornes will pass his break even of 130, (unlikely) he might only get 140. He will only rise a small amount.
Whereas, bird has a breakeven of 1. I rekon he will get about 40 points. He will rise more.
I cant be bothered to do the exact equations using ff genie, but definately wait.

agree 100%, wait a week, Port are travelling to Perth this week, im pretty sure both teams will be fired up, but more so the West Coast at home, under the pump big time they are. they'll be keen for a big 1 at home. in all honesty Kane shouldnt go close to 130.

BJ has got in thr 50ies last 2 weeks, surely he'd have a massive BE, would u wait 1 or 2 weeks 2 pick him up? also Cam Bruce, Gun in Dt last year, he'll be a great pick up for many teams, problem is which rookie do u trade out in the midfield, all have only gone up in value twice, and are probly 3-4 weeks off maxing in value.

 

[Kid A]

That's why I'm looking at forwards and backs before midfielders. There are lots of potential guns in the midfield, and generally midfield cash cows will rise consistently. I have only the one gun (Cross) in my midfield, with Stevens, Griffen, Dyson, Palmer, Coughlan, Bird and Johnstone making up the rest. I'm confident that all of these will rise for some time, so no upgrading yet. They won't have peaked, and none of the Geelong mids has bottomed.

 

[Kid A]

(obviously, of that lot, not all will be upgraded. eg Johnstone and Griffen at least look to be keepers.)

 

[The Special 1]

That's why I'm looking at forwards and backs before midfielders. There are lots of potential guns in the midfield, and generally midfield cash cows will rise consistently. I have only the one gun (Cross) in my midfield, with Stevens, Griffen, Dyson, Palmer, Coughlan, Bird and Johnstone making up the rest. I'm confident that all of these will rise for some time, so no upgrading yet. They won't have peaked, and none of the Geelong mids has bottomed.

yea fair point, i'll be lookn to get BJ and Bowden in the nest few weeks

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Im looking to get an ADCCOCK this week as he didnt dominate but will in the near future. SJ will be on my radar as a forward premium but they play swans next so will wait after that. Riewoldt is the 3 or 4th best forwards so will wait till he bottoms out.

Great thread and it is really needed, but maybe a better name such as BREAKEVENS or PLAYERS TO RISE $$ OR FALL$$.

Plenty of talented Midfielders who are falling whilst i am waiting on Bowden, P.Burgoyne as premiums and J.W.S as my 6 or 7th best back. (need to plan next 4 weeks hoping to get 4 premiums in)