Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[AlibiMonday]

If there's no distinction between offence and defence (ie. saving a goal is the same as scoring a goal), then it looks to me that the squiggle is indicating that Fremantle (80D + 59O = 139) are essentially equal with Sydney (75D + 64O = 139) for power ranking/strength/form/flag favourites, with Hawthorn just behind (62D + 75O = 137).

As an extension of this simple measurement, you could look at the most dominant teams in any given period:

AFL MODERN (1987 - Current)

1. Geelong 1989 Rd 12 (173)
2. Collingwood 2011 Rd 20 (172)
3. Hawthorn 1988 GF (164)
4. Collingwood 1990 GF (163)
5. Hawthorn 1989 GF (156)
6. Geelong 2011 GF (155)
7. Essendon 1989 Rd 19 (154)
8. Essendon 2000 GF (150)
9. West Coast 1991 Rd 17 (149)
10. Brisbane 1996 Rd 19 (149)

VFL POST WAR (1946 - 1986)

1. Footscray 1953 Rd 5 (173)*
2. St.Kilda 1961 Rd 16 (169)
3. Geelong 1965 Rd 12 (163)
4. Melbourne 1961 GF (161)
5. Melbourne 1957 Rd 16 (161)
6. Essendon 1985 GF (157)
7. Hawthorn 1986 GF (153)
8. Essendon 1965 GF (152)
9. Hawthorn 1971 Rd 17 (152)
10. Footscray 1954 Rd 6 (151)

* Footscray kept Fitzroy to only 6 points while scoring 66 (thus 11:1 ratio)

There's an obvious problem with the squiggle in that it's ratio driven, therefore keeping the opposition to an extraordinary low score (may have been very bad weather on the day) will pump up the defence exponentially.

Anyway interesting all the same, especially since FinalSiren gives us a terrific index to compare the strength of teams over the years.

 

[clogged]

As an extension of this simple measurement, you could look at the most dominant teams in any given period:

AFL MODERN (1987 - Current)

1. Geelong 1989 Rd 12 (173)
2. Collingwood 2011 Rd 20 (172)
3. Hawthorn 1988 GF (164)
4. Collingwood 1990 GF (163)
5. Hawthorn 1989 GF (156)
6. Geelong 2011 GF (155)
7. Essendon 1989 Rd 19 (154)
8. Essendon 2000 GF (150)
9. West Coast 1991 Rd 17 (149)
10. Brisbane 1996 Rd 19 (149)

Interesting in that it rates very good teams at their peak in GFs. I had always thought that of all their premierships Geelong's 2011 was their absolute best, and that overall it was probably their most dominant year. Also shows how good that Hawthorn side in 1988-89 was.

 

[Final Siren]

Interesting in that it rates very good teams at their peak in GFs. I had always thought that of all their premierships Geelong's 2011 was their absolute best, and that overall it was probably their most dominant year. Also shows how good that Hawthorn side in 1988-89 was.

I see Geelong 2007 as more dominant in the sense that nobody was ever going to challenge them for the flag. Port Adelaide got to be the Grand Final bunny, and Collingwood played out of their skins to push them in a prelim, but I find it impossible to imagine anyone else with a serious claim on that flag.

While Geelong 2011 was more dominant of the pack and won more games (and looks awesome on the squiggle), they had Collingwood as a serious challenger. The Pies were amazing that year. They couldn't beat Geelong, but they sure beat the crap out of everyone else. So while Geelong was further ahead of the pack in 2011, there was a much smaller gap between them and #2.

 

[Wandering Hawk]

Reminiscent of the Hawks on 1989. How scary were the Cats that year?

Outstanding side in an era of many outstanding sides. Good footy days.

 

[clogged]

I see Geelong 2007 as more dominant in the sense that nobody was ever going to challenge them for the flag. Port Adelaide got to be the Grand Final bunny, and Collingwood played out of their skins to push them in a prelim, but I find it impossible to imagine anyone else with a serious claim on that flag.

While Geelong 2011 was more dominant of the pack and won more games (and looks awesome on the squiggle), they had Collingwood as a serious challenger. The Pies were amazing that year. They couldn't beat Geelong, but they sure beat the crap out of everyone else. So while Geelong was further ahead of the pack in 2011, there was a much smaller gap between them and #2.

True, but the same would then apply to Hawthorn of 1989. Both Geelong and Essendon were astounding teams that year, yet Hawthorn were better than both. And I think most would regard 1988 & 1989 as Hawthorn's greatest ever premiership years (correct me if wrong Hawthorn fans).

Hawks of 1988 were miles ahead of the pack, but the fact the pack caught up with them and they were still triumphant (not losing to either Geelong or Essendon all year) probably stamps that side as even greater still.

 

[Seppo]

BUMP, Hate not seeing the squiggle on the front page.

Tips for round 15:

Geelong 84 - 79 Essendon

Hawthorn 128 - 78 Gold Coast

St Kilda 61 - 99 Richmond

Fremantle 89 - 59 West Coast

Brisbane Lions 65 - 107 North Melbourne

Sydney 124 - 58 Greater Western Sydney

Western Bulldogs 83 - 76 Melbourne

Adelaide 81 - 100 Port Adelaide

Collingwood 102 - 74 Carlton

 

[El_Scorcho]

I'm officially using the squiggle to settle games i'm not sure about in my tipping now.

The Bulldogs Melbourne one will be very interesting though.

 

[mattis117]

I'm officially using the squiggle to settle games i'm not sure about in my tipping now.

The Bulldogs Melbourne one will be very interesting though.

Same, been doing it for a few weeks now.

 

[The Swans Blog]

Better than Roby's crap.

 

[Dirty Bird]

Better than Roby's crap.

On this, has anyone else like me completely ignore Roby's rankings now and just come straight to this thread?
I don't think I've checked his power rankings since rd 1 or 2 this year.

 

[The Swans Blog]

On this, has anyone else like me completely ignore Roby's rankings now and just come straight to this thread?
I don't think I've checked his power rankings since rd 1 or 2 this year.

I checked it for lol's, but it's something that should be moved to the betting forum rather than the main board.

 

[mattis117]

On this, has anyone else like me completely ignore Roby's rankings now and just come straight to this thread?
I don't think I've checked his power rankings since rd 1 or 2 this year.

Yep - have given up on the power rankings - this one is much more interesting. The comedic factor of Roby's thread got old.

 

[Power Raid]

I can't help but think the swans are in the box seat for another flag based on the graph

 

[clogged]

Yep - have given up on the power rankings - this one is much more interesting. The comedic factor of Roby's thread got old.

His thread is just sad now.

 

[hutchy31]

Another great call from the squiggle (geel v ess)

 

[james brayshaw]

BUMP, Hate not seeing the squiggle on the front page.

Tips for round 15:

Geelong 84 - 79 Essendon

Hawthorn 128 - 78 Gold Coast

St Kilda 61 - 99 Richmond

Fremantle 89 - 59 West Coast

Brisbane Lions 65 - 107 North Melbourne

Sydney 124 - 58 Greater Western Sydney

Western Bulldogs 83 - 76 Melbourne

Adelaide 81 - 100 Port Adelaide

Collingwood 102 - 74 Carlton

The squiggle is on fire

 

[Sydney Bloods]

I can't help but think the swans are in the box seat for another flag based on the graph

personally i think teams need more attack then defence this year.

 

[barmy44]

I can't help but think the swans are in the box seat for another flag based on the graph

there are 5-6 teams all skirting different areas of the 'premiership cluster'. hawthorn and port look best placed to me, sydney close behind.

 

[Final Siren]

north melbourne why u hate squiggle

 

[SJ]

north melbourne why u hate squiggle

Great work. Just wondering if your tip takes only the squiggle position into account, or does it also consider form? That is, if both teams are identically placed on the graph but one is moving outward and one inward (and all else is equal), can it read into that?

 

[cryptor]

Great work. Just wondering if your tip takes only the squiggle position into account, or does it also consider form? That is, if both teams are identically placed on the graph but one is moving outward and one inward (and all else is equal), can it read into that?

It doesn't. It only takes the present position into account. The squiggle is really just an aesthetic to show the progression path throughout the season. Would be cool if Final Siren could work form momentum into the equation somehow. Perhaps using vectors?

 

[Final Siren]

It kinda takes form into account, in the sense it's calibrated to tip accurately.

The number 91 in the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm determines how much a single game can affect a team's squiggle position. (Because each round, new values are calculated for teams by taking 91% of their old values and adding 9% of what would have been required to generate the results seen in their last match.)

If that number were higher, teams would move less, i.e. the squiggle would take more convincing before deciding a team was significantly better or worse than it thought. If it were lower, the squiggle would react more to individual games.

It's 91 because that gets the most tips right: it is, on average, the sweet spot in terms of catching teams that are on the rise or fall while not getting misled by a few odd results.

So in theory, where a team sits on the squiggle right now is exactly where the squiggle thinks it should be, even if it seems to be trending to somewhere else.

In practice, though, we can clearly see some teams heading fairly steadily in the same direction over the course of this season, e.g. Melbourne, St. Kilda, Brisbane, GWS, Port Adelaide, Sydney. You could have predicted their current position fairly accurately by assuming they would keep going from Round 5 or 6.

I think this is partly because it's an unusual year, and those strong trends are only balanced out by a smaller number of teams that haven't continued trending so clearly (e.g. Hawthorn, Carlton, West Coast, and Richmond).

As a human being, you have the ability to figure out which teams are probably trending and which probably aren't, something the squiggle can't do with a one-size-fits-all algorithm.

 

[WowWeee]

FFS North the hipster hating on the Squiggle. God i hate my teams at times

 

[Final Siren]

Round 15, 2014​

Interactive squiggle!


Priority Picks: Winners and Losers

This week I thought I'd have a look at the other end of the ladder. Since the draft was revamped in 1997, there have been 18 start-of-first-round Priority Draft picks awarded. (I think. Sources differ. But I think this is right.)

Here is where each Priority Pick recipient sat when they received their bounty. I've also added red crosses for teams that finished very low but didn't get a PP, at least not a pre-round-1 one.

Pre-Round 1 Priority Picks 1997-2013

I was surprised by how many red crosses Melbourne have: five out of 13 here, or 5/10 if you exclude the expansion teams. Popular perception is that the Demons have had a lot of priority picks. And while it's true that only Carlton has received more, the Demons have occupied disaster zone territory far more often than anyone else.

 

[Roobs321]

Gee, that shows had bad St. Kilda are actually going at the moment.

You can also track the general trend of Carlton during the Pagan era.

Also seems like there weren't really any deplorable sides around in 2010, which sounds about right (except for Richmond in the first 2 months of that season I guess). Same for the late 90s.